High Risk Of Civil War In Southern Thailand

[george]

High risk of civil war in southern Thailand

BANGKOK: -- Violence is rising in southern Thailand in what seems to be turning into an all-out civil war. Islamic extremists, who continue their attacks against the Buddhist population, now have set their eyes on the industrial infrastructure. The killing of Muslims is also increasing. Meanwhile the ruling military junta seems to be more interested in consolidating its power in Bangkok than in finding a solution.

Last night suspected Muslim rebels set fire to a large warehouse for rubber in Yala province. More than 30 fire trucks struggled to douse the flames. According to an official of the Southern Land Rubber Co., a leading company in the sector and owner of the destroyed material, losses were estimated at 400 million baht (US$ 10.28 million). He said the company might even shut down because of the rising tide of violence and its 500 workers may lose their jobs. Rubber is a cornerstone of the region's economy.

This morning Islamic teacher Hamsao Yakariya, 45, was shot dead as he rode his motorcycle near his village of Ban Jurae in Tambon Rico, Sungai Padi district.

On the night of February 19-20, as thousands of people (especially Chinese) were celebrating Lunar New Year, a series of attacks took place, including 29 bombings within 45 minutes. Three people of Chinese descent were shot and killed that same night. Altogether, eight people were killed and nearly 70 wounded.

Organising and carrying out the various attacks must have involved at least 200 people.

Three people were arrested shortly after the attacks. They are said to have confessed their involvement and blamed a group known as Runda Kumpulan Kecil, which in Malay means Pattani State Restoration.

In the three southern provinces of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani Muslims are in the majority in a predominantly Buddhist country. In all three there have been clashes between Muslims and Buddhists. Muslims want to secede from Thailand. Since 2004 about 2,000 people, mostly civilian, have been killed in what is a virtual terror strategy.

The rebellion broke out when former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra adopted strong-arm tactics to nip separatist aspirations in the bud. The government sent in the army and gave it emergency powers under an emergency decree adopted in July 2005.

In the three years since Bangkok deployed 25,000 troops in the provinces (combined population of 1.8 million), the violence in those areas has risen instead of declined.

Emergency rule has led to an increase in insurgency violence and widespread abuses by the military and police. The government has not taken the necessary steps to find a peaceful solution.

Violence has increased since the military took over in September of last year as officers are more concerned with consolidating their power than with the situation in the south.

The coup's top brass were so concerned about ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra that they had radio- and phone-tapping equipment moved from the south to Bangkok.

The net result according to local sources is that rebels are now in control of much of the territory, in particular Muslim communities, through a network of informers.

“When a teacher was shot and set ablaze in the middle of a Muslim village, nobody dared give police details,” said Pranai Suwannarat, head of a multi-agency body charged with developing the relatively poor region. “No one wants to be seen as siding with the government, or they will face a similar fate.”

According to Srisompob Jitpiromsri from Pattani's Prince of Songkhla University, the situation has deteriorated so much that “clashes between Buddhists and Muslims may be inevitable if the government fails to stop the attacks.”

-- AsiaNews/Agencies 2007-02-21

[Mid]

one wonders at what stage does the ostrich pull his head out of the sand ?

[taxexile]

the government will never be able to stop the attacks.

the muslim extremists will succeed , even if it takes them 100 years , in wrecking southern thailand and taking it back to the middle ages , and their he11ish vision of a truer form of extreme islam.

within 2 or three generations , large portions of asia will be heading the same way , as will parts of europe.

holland , france and the uk spring to mind.

[bingobongo]

only a matter of time before this spreads to Bangkok tp get the results they require.........additionally this junta isn't going to leave

to quote the article

"Meanwhile the ruling military junta seems to be more interested in consolidating its power in Bangkok than in finding a solution."

[TimTang]

Relax! They're just Thugs and Bandits.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Edited February 21, 2007 by TimTang

[Ijustwannateach]

When the news itself is allowed to start using words like "civil war" you know the situation must finally be pretty d*** bad.

[PaulUSA302]

The sad thing I have learned about news is that you have to remember that the person reporting the story has an ego and wants to write a story that gets them many pats on the back.

Is it close to civil war because a reporter says so?

When the news itself is allowed to start using words like "civil war" you know the situation must finally be pretty d*** bad.

[bkkmadness]

Apologies beforehand to the wiki haters but I just read this:

"A civil war is a war in which parties within the same culture, society or nationality fight against each other for the control of political power. Political scientists use two criteria: the warring groups must be from the same country and fighting for control of the political center, control over a separatist state or to force a major change in policy. The second criterion is that at least 1,000 people must have been killed in total, with at least 100 from each side."

source:wikipedia

Isn't this already a civil war?

If it isn't, what needs to happen to escalate it to that level?

[mickyboy]

the government will never be able to stop the attacks.

the muslim extremists will succeed , even if it takes them 100 years , in wrecking southern thailand and taking it back to the middle ages , and their he11ish vision of a truer form of extreme islam.

within 2 or three generations , large portions of asia will be heading the same way , as will parts of europe.

holland , france and the uk spring to mind.

i agree with this as i live in london and have allready seen and tasted there ways and once they become stronger in numbers they be telling us what to do and in england we dont want to annoy so they get what they want its there human rights why cant we all live in peace

[wrecker]

The report is of course inaccurate. After all the arson attacks on schools and murders were already in full swing under the Chuan I and II governments. We should not forget that it is not Thaksin who pulled the trigger but his army. Mister Sonthi who staged the putsch, was in charge of the South for almost btwo years. And he was the one who never had enough powers and wanted more. These days when it starts raining they blame it on Thaksin. But Sonthi was right, he is doing a much better job in the South. Maybe he should encourage ALL Muslims to break the law and officially marry multiple women. Than they do not have time anymore. Funny was also the picture of the man, sought for the Bangkok New year bombings. Blamed Sonthi and fellow crooks it on the former government , now it seems that the only suspect with a name is a Southern Bomber and Arsonist! Keep on the good work Sonthi, it is a typical case of SOM NAM NAA!

[Dakhar]

Apologies beforehand to the wiki haters but I just read this:

"A civil war is a war in which parties within the same culture, society or nationality fight against each other for the control of political power. Political scientists use two criteria: the warring groups must be from the same country and fighting for control of the political center, control over a separatist state or to force a major change in policy. The second criterion is that at least 1,000 people must have been killed in total, with at least 100 from each side."

source:wikipedia

Isn't this already a civil war?

If it isn't, what needs to happen to escalate it to that level?

Well if we use the wicki that the comander and chief of the world, mr shrub uses, no this is not a civil war, more like a skirmish, or a girl figt at prom.

[mitrapaap]

the government will never be able to stop the attacks.

the muslim extremists will succeed , even if it takes them 100 years , in wrecking southern thailand and taking it back to the middle ages , and their he11ish vision of a truer form of extreme islam.

within 2 or three generations , large portions of asia will be heading the same way , as will parts of europe.

holland , france and the uk spring to mind.

i agree with this as i live in london and have allready seen and tasted there ways and once they become stronger in numbers they be telling us what to do and in england we dont want to annoy so they get what they want its there human rights why cant we all live in peace

We could, but they can't and I wonder why. Why can't they accept that others have their human rights too?

[TimTang]

After 2 1/2 years an average of 20 people are killed a week. There's been over 200 bombings, yet no one's seen anything, no one gets caught, until now 2 guys get spotted on a video.

What the F$&k is going on? Isn't there supposed to be an army down there? Don't they have ANY intelligence? How many have to die? How many schools have to be burned down? How many businesses have to be destroyed before something is done?

Bangkok is full of Muslim only neighborhoods all over the place. When will they start doing the same? Do you think these neighborhoods don't know what's going on, or have contacts with those that are responsible?

I lived in a high rise in the middle of a Muslim neighborhood and every two weeks or so 3 or 4 new tenants appeared hanging out at the pool. They all stayed in the same apartment and they were all from Syria. They would soon disappear only to be replaced by another crew. It could be a time share unit, but this seems rather suspicious.

I remember reading a couple of years ago that hundreds of Muslim Thais were sent to Syria for religious training. I think we're now seeing the fruits of this training.

[taxexile]

Why can't they accept that others have their human rights too?

because it's written in "the book"

[pkrv]

Horrific stuff. Interestingly the West is considered christian (with a small c). No we are bloody well not, for some unaccountable reason butchering 14 million women for not conforming (apparently they were witches) and burning a tiny component of the human race.

IMO Thailand need to ensure that secularism (laws are made by man, no religion in schools) is adhered to, otherwise Thailand will end up as a land of Spiritual rapists (you will do this, you will do that god commands it), and when it comes to teaching religion to children, Spiritual paedophiles (I think a certain church has demonstrated this admirably along with colluding with the horrific consequences of the second world war)

[aqua4]

I don't hope this thread will just go down as another anti Muslim thread. They tend to denigrate into a pile of sh.t with no meaning or solution. Extremism breeds from poverty the world over. When people have nothing to loose, there is very little to stop them. Maybe a possible solution would have been to develop the South more? The only reason it will flare now is because of the insecurity in the country which makes it the perfect time to create chaos. They know that nobody can fight two wars at the same time and expect to win.

[L&J]

This continuing situation should certainly lead to the Thai Baht increasing its value against

the USD. Threat of Civil War = 30/$1 - Civil War = 25/$1 - Total Collapse = 20/$1-

The Bizarro World of Thai economics must make teaching business classes at the Thai

Universities very difficult.

[amarka]

The report is of course inaccurate. After all the arson attacks on schools and murders were already in full swing under the Chuan I and II governments. We should not forget that it is not Thaksin who pulled the trigger but his army. Mister Sonthi who staged the putsch, was in charge of the South for almost btwo years. And he was the one who never had enough powers and wanted more. These days when it starts raining they blame it on Thaksin. But Sonthi was right, he is doing a much better job in the South. Maybe he should encourage ALL Muslims to break the law and officially marry multiple women. Than they do not have time anymore. Funny was also the picture of the man, sought for the Bangkok New year bombings. Blamed Sonthi and fellow crooks it on the former government , now it seems that the only suspect with a name is a Southern Bomber and Arsonist! Keep on the good work Sonthi, it is a typical case of SOM NAM NAA!

hi...

ha ha ha....

only what 7 months to go?... and i am not talking about the elections any more ... and neither is anyone else... this junta wants to stay... i am talking about the WTO and the world bank and when they will pull the plug.....

either thailand turns the corner soon or its bye bye democracy.....

amarka

[AsiaCheese]

I once had high hopes that this sort of thing [religious extremism of any sort] wouldn't find fertile ground in Thailand, as Buddhism [not a religion, but a philosophy] doesn't subscribe to oppressive methods to get more members into their community, as practiced by _______ [fill in any religion here].

Unfortunately, politics play a strong role here. Seen against the background of the area where 'civil war' happens now not having been part of Thailand for that long, and not on a voluntary basis either (i.e. Thailand having 'adopted' a piece of land from some sultan), one could conclude that they have a case and a right to fight (but not with guns and bombs) for an independent state, where they would have rights they're not granted today. Having said that, the rights bit would eventually have regulated itself, were it not for out-of-country pseudo-imans who inject their load of extremism and poison into a situation that could be resolved without deaths...

Judging from the fact that pretty much every religion there ever was has in effect given a rat's ass in human rights [and downwards from there], one can only wonder how this will turn out...

[Cappy]

Is this really a religious war? no. noone is burning wats or stuffing mosques with dead pigs.... yet. both Buddhists and Muslims (and Christians for that matter) living in South Thailand enjoy religious freedoms unequalled in most of Asia. do they want political autonomy? probably so, and this may be a motivator - but everyone knows it absolutely will not happen. The leadership of the Islamic community in Thailand is patriotic and proud to be Thai. At least one Thai Muslim serves in Parliament. The Thai Muslim community has peaceful and respectable roots in Thailand stretching back hundreds of years. There are no grounds for separatism besides the (relatively) recent political /economic /social upheavals resulting from the ever-increasing small-scale, local violence. This "movement" is not supported by the majority of Thai Muslims, and the small support they have in the South is based on fear rather than any solid backing. Think early Khmer Rouge, 1972. and similarly, it was foreign cross-border 'assistance' that was catalyst and for a long time the dinner table of the movement.

It is not a problem of religion, it is politics and sweet economics. Thailand can't clean up this mess until it is willing to get mean and nasty with its southern neighbor(s) who have been stoking the fires for decades. The global and local socio-economic environment just happens to be ideal for a bit of terrorism... that has a real agenda... but not a Pattani State; that much is obvious. the rest is almost so.

-cappy

[Dradam]

Don't blame religion for the world's problems. Religion can be both good and bad. The same as technology. Technology can be both good and bad. It all depends upon who is in control. World leaders can manipulate people with religion and they can use technology to destroy. At the same time, religion can uplift and edify and technology can improve society and alleviate suffering.

It all depends on who is in control.

[chinadarling]

I think the hard and cold of it is that all fundamentalist of any religion will destroy everything they touch in their hate and ignorance.

The reality is that for the most part 'war' is being fought between fundamentalist Muslims and fundamentalist Christians.

The hate has spread all around the Muslim world and now they fight everyone.

Keep in mind a few things.

-fat happy educated people don't go to war - more of this is about poverty and ignorance than religion.

- despite all this I am very afraid of the Muslims as they are capable of bring us back to the stone age both physically and ideologically and i don't really want for humans to have to redo the last 1000 years. The planet can't take it.

Then again the Christians had their chance and look how they #$^%ed up

Muslims and Christians were living in peace until the first crusade. Never been the same since.

It is sad that the Thai people are caught in this. From what I know the Buddist are a pretty laidback bunch and not into taking over the world or converting by force. Sorry for them.

The best solutions is actually fro them to fix their economy. Fat happy educated people have something to lose and don't like war.

[TimTang]

"Extremism breeds from poverty the world over. When people have nothing to loose, there is very little to stop them. Maybe a possible solution would have been to develop the South more?"

The 19 Muslim that were responsible for 9/11 were either from upper middle class families, or ultra rich Saudi families.

The subway bombers in London all came from middle or upper middle class families.

Are the poor Blacks in Darfur killing the Arab Janjaweed, or is it the richer Janjaweed that are killing the poor Blacks?

The poorest place in Thailand is Isan. Why aren't they slaughtering people?

The Southern Provinces are rich in resources. It's one of the biggest rubber producers in the world and is also rich in agriculture. If it wasn't for the fighting, productivity would go up and the standard of living would increase for the whole region. Who is responsible for the poverty of the Muslims in the south? Their madrases are sponsored by Saudi Arabia, their education is free, and they are even entitled to room and board if they need it. None of the Bhuddist children have this luxury, in fact they're lucky if they can even go to school, at least when they're not being burned down.

Maybe if the Imams spent more time in madrases teaching them maths, sciences and skills that they can use towards a more productive future instead of having them pray 5 times a day and rest of the time memorize the Quran in Arabic (a language they don't even understand) they might be able to pull themselves out of they've self induced poverty.

While riding around on motorcycles chopping peoples heads off, bombing banks, businesses, and markets, or shooting people in tea shops might be a real gas, apparently it doesn't pay well.

[A_Traveller]

May I take the liberty of adding to this thread some historical background. A version of this was posted in the 'Several Bombs..' thread but I thought it bore repetition here. I have made a few changes to the original I posted there, though none are substantive.

1. Patani the Kingdom was founded in the thirteenth century, though some Islamic scholars suggest it was much earlier and the court converted to Islam during the fifteen century {Current Era}.

2. The Thai {I'll avoid Siam here since it simply adds to the confusion} Kingdom exercised suzerainty over Patani from the sixteenth century onwards. There are some breaks and skirmishes, and Patani took advantage of the Burmese raids which lead to the destruction of Ayutthya to break away.

3. Rama I's son, Prince Surasi, attacked Patani in 1786 and successfully retook the area. During this battle the Sultan Muhammad was slain and the capital was burned to the ground. It is claimed that 4,000 Patani Malays were chained and marched to Bangkok, where they became slaves and were made to dig the city's system of canals.

4. As part of this successful campaign, two cannon, a skill for which the armourers of Patani were famous, the 'Seri Negara' and 'Seri Patani' were brought to Bangkok and both can be seen today at the entrance to the Thai MoD building.

5. There were further rebellions against Thai rule, the last significant one being in 1808, which ultimately resulted in Patani being partioned into seven states. 4 of the 7 states subsequently claimed independence for about six months but were retaken by Thai authorities, with ease, and reverted to Thai suzerainty as the others had remained throughout.

6. In 1826 both the Thai and British signed the Burney Treaty which acknowledged the Thai territorial claims as extant {Note time-line above}.

6. Under these circumstances the British further negotiated with the Thai government of the day and both signed the Anglo-Siamese Treaty of 1909 which effectively created the Thai-Malay(sia) border of today.

7. Since historically the Thai's had ruled this area the discussions for both these Treaties {1826 & 1909} were conducted on a government to government basis.

HTH

Regards

[lukamar]

The escalation in the South is expected if you know the recent background which was blacked out in Thailand. I hope i don't break any forum rules with this..... But

An Australian Newspaper had a long interview with the former PM of Malaysia just after the coup. He talked about brokering a peace proposal with the then Government (TRT) and 3 insurgent groups at his resort island. The proposal had been accepted by the insurgents, had gone to the palace and been approved there and had been passed back to the Government in August and was to become in force once accepted into law by the government around the end of September.

He did not have much more to say but it's apparent from the escalation since the coup that the military did not want a peace proposal that was brokered by the TRT in the news. It would be hard to explain how the horrible Thaksin regime they just overthrew, brokered peace in the South, so they scrapped it. They then came up with the exact same "idea" and with the exact same player (ex pm of Malaysia) but unfortunately the insurgents probably decided they were double-crossed by the junta and have gone on a rampage. It's going to be a long time before this is over now and things will probably widen in scope unfortunately.

[SeanBangkok]

There is no point in reasoning with a group of people who go around cutting off the heads of women and children. you have two choices, give them what they want, and hope they dont want more once it is given, or get used to the violence. you can try fighting them, but it is just going to create more of them.

[sriracha john]

When the news itself is allowed to start using words like "civil war" you know the situation must finally be pretty d*** bad.

With all due respect to the Pope and the Vatican... I think his "news service" is being a bit tainted when it portrays the government as being unconcerned about events in the South.... especially when their are so many articles from news organizations that are NOT soliciting for funds reporting on the myriad of events that the government IS doing to try and resolve the situation.

Edited February 21, 2007 by sriracha john

[TimTang]

A_Traveller

Thanks for that post! That's really interesting stuff.

I've been trying to find a web site I came across about 2 years ago that covered a lot of what you posted.

There was actually an old map of Siam showing that the Kingdom stretched all the way to Singapore.

Apparently the Siamese let the British have Malaysia if they promised not to Colonize them. It was a little more complicated than that, but that was the jist of it.

Muslims were brought by the British (and Dutch in some cases) as labourers. Prior to that the religion never existed in the region.

[sriracha john]

The sad thing I have learned about news is that you have to remember that the person reporting the story has an ego and wants to write a story that gets them many pats on the back.

Is it close to civil war because a reporter says so?

It is if you want to be saved...

as well as willing to tithe your 10% to the news organization he writes for.

[A_Traveller]

The escalation in the South is expected if you know the recent background which was blacked out in Thailand. I hope i don't break any forum rules with this..... But

An Australian Newspaper had a long interview with the former PM of Malaysia just after the coup. He talked about brokering a peace proposal with the then Government (TRT) and 3 insurgent groups at his resort island. The proposal had been accepted by the insurgents, had gone to the palace and been approved there and had been passed back to the Government in August and was to become in force once accepted into law by the government around the end of September.

He did not have much more to say but it's apparent from the escalation since the coup that the military did not want a peace proposal that was brokered by the TRT in the news. It would be hard to explain how the horrible Thaksin regime they just overthrew, brokered peace in the South, so they scrapped it. They then came up with the exact same "idea" and with the exact same player (ex pm of Malaysia) but unfortunately the insurgents probably decided they were double-crossed by the junta and have gone on a rampage. It's going to be a long time before this is over now and things will probably widen in scope unfortunately.

Are you able to provide a link to the interview? My understanding was that though Mahathir offered his services they were not fruitful. Further after the 'war crimes trial' in the Perdana Global Peace Forum his position was somewhat invalidated. I do recall that his son, Director of PGPF was talking at the end of last year about a possible peace process perhaps focused in Brunei building on his father's 'work' during the previous year, but there was little Thai discussion about this or for that matter any earlier activity.

Regards

/edit punctuation //

Edited February 21, 2007 by A_Traveller