Thai Baht VS American Dollar

[RocketDog]

58 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

There are many wellknown investors who recommend to buy gold today... on top of the Chinese and Russian central banks which are buying hands over fists. 

 

These are not paranoid people or entities. 

 

People like Bill Bonner or Doug Casey didn't become very wealthy legendary investors by peddling nonsense. 

 

There is also John Mauldin, who is as posed as they come, who has been buying gold coins on a weekly basis for years now. 

 

In fact, the issue in not gold, but rather fiat money. 

 

It is mindboggling that, despite the multiple historical episodes of too much money printing, and their inescapable consequences, there are still people who are convinced that this time is different, that wealth can be printed and that it is normal to have stock markets gaining 20% per year in economies barely growing at 2%.

 

Sooner than later, Voltaire will be proven right again... 

I was reflecting the attitude that some people exhibit about gold bugs, calling them paranoid. So I was replying to this criticism in the same coin (sorry for the pun). 

 

I too have read and followed Casey, Mauldin, Bonner, Simon Black, Martin Weiss, Austrian theory, and others for years. Note however that they have also been forecasting a monetary collapse for many years, especially Bonner. This had led to crisis fatigue and caused many to discount their predictions. 

 

Also note that these same folk have made a ton of money peddling their newsletters, contributing to their wealth as newbies become aware of their predictions and subscribe. At least for a while. 

 

The real issues with global monetary policy, international banking, wealth concentration, fiat currency, stock market manipulation only become apparent when one continues to seek more knowledge with an open mind and connect the dots. The principles these guys espouse must be taken apart from their personalities and methods they recommend for protection as they all have some valid points if somewhat overstated at times. 

 

I finished putting my economic house in order a few years ago starting with prudent and overlapping asset allocation in stocks, real estate, cash, and precious metals. 

 

Now these guys just sound like broken records (for those that remember such things) to me. In that sense I don't need to hear the sermons any more. Now I just sit and watch this train wreck in slow motion unfold. Maybe that sounds smug, but I know I've done all I can given my starting conditions. 

 

If you get it you take action, if you don't you are simply grist for the mill. Sometime in the future. 

 

I, along with many of thses pundits, am amazed that the system has managed to levitate for so long against all the laws of economic gravity. Unfortunately this leads to a false sense of security known as 'normalcy bias'. Like Wylie Coyote, lots of people don't realize they've already overrun the cliff until they start to fall. 

People like us know this house of cards can't stand, and strain to see the cracks in the wall, but thus far only an informed and patient eye can discern them and their ramifications.

I've long sense given up warning my friends and family and I'm surprised I'm even wasting digital ink in this tirade. The years of learning and preparing have fatigued me to the whole sorry mess. 

 

As is always the case when calamity finally comes, and history shows us that it always does when the printing presses start rolling, many folks will become destitute as vast sums of money change hands.

Like a global pandemic this crisis is already attacking the financially weak and infirm. The lower economic classes in every country are feeling the pain even as they are unsure what is causing it. 

I don't kid myself that I'll be spared completely, but at least I'm pretty sure I won't be totally wiped out either. That's the best I can hope for at this point. I guess in that sense I am paranoid and/or sure that things will get bad in the near future. 

 

I think we are very near an inflection point in history and the majority of the people that are capable of waking up to the threat (and can do anything about their plight) have already done so. 

 

To the undoubted relief of many readers, I'll not post any more on this topic as I now sound like a broken record to myself. 

 

Good luck to all of us. Anybody worth less than $10million will need it. 

[RocketDog]

3 hours ago, Naam said:

Minted in Mexico City, the Mexican Gold Peso coins contain 90% pure Gold and 10% copper.

https://www.apmex.com/category/13206/gold-50-pesos-1947-prior

Sorry to disagree, but if the coin is genuine and says it's 0.999 fine then it has at most 0.1% non gold content. 

[Naam]

2 hours ago, RocketDog said:

Paper is drawn out of thin air. Precious metals are mined, and have historically been used to represent wealth. 

 

The idea of paper currency representing wealth has been a more recent ambitious deceit that started the rise of the banksters to the seats of power they hold today.

 

And it all started with them storing real gold for people and giving them paper receipts. 

 

Clever ruse, no? 

 

Still works beautifully today for many naive folks. 

Good luck with that. 

still works beautifully today for many successful folks. i earned paper currency, saved paper currency, invested in paper currency, paid for homes, cars and everything else in paper currency, when my wife goes shopping she doesn't pay with gold bullion and our domestic staff is happy to have their salaries in paper currency.

 

you Sir are a dreamer and lack touch with reality. but you have my blessing.

[Naam]

22 minutes ago, RocketDog said:

4 hours ago, Naam said:

Minted in Mexico City, the Mexican Gold Peso coins contain 90% pure Gold and 10% copper.

https://www.apmex.com/category/13206/gold-50-pesos-1947-prior

Sorry to disagree, but if the coin is genuine and says it's 0.999 fine then it has at most 0.1% non gold content. 

lost your reading glasses?

[Brunolem]

6 minutes ago, RocketDog said:

 

 

I too have read and followed Casey, Mauldin, Bonner, Simon Black, Martin Weiss, Austrian theory, and others for years. Note however that they have also been forecasting a monetary collapse for many years, especially Bonner. This had led to crisis fatigue and caused many to discount their predictions. 

 

 

The mistake they have made I think is to underestimate inertia. 

 

The global economy is so big, at about 65 trillion dollar of GDP, that it can go on for a very long time just running on fumes. 

 

And instead of fumes, it has been running with a horse's dose of doping called QE + ZIRP. 

 

When the economy hit the wall in 2008, I gave it until the 2020s to muddle through, as Mauldin likes to say. 

 

Needless to say that these years of "recovery" have come at a steep price and that the bill is coming due. 

 

The Fed has just realized that it can't push interest rates above 2%, less than half their historical level, while the ECB and JCB are stuck indefinitely at 0%.

 

With savings destroyed, the economy now runs only on debt, with its amount growing exponentially, four or five times faster than GDP. 

 

The US economy which, according to uncle Donald, has never been so strong, can't stand interest rates of 5%, that were the norm not long ago, is running trillion dollar yearly budget deficits, and is carrying record public, corporate and private debt. 

 

What would it be if this economy was not running at maximum power? 

 

Meanwhile, the energy independence of Saudi America is also coming at a steep price, with companies running on a treadmill while piling on debt, up to 250 billion dollars at last count. 

 

One really has to believe in fairy tales to think that such a system is sustainable. 

 

If it was, our ancestors would have discovered it long ago... in fact they did, and they failed, then did again, and failed again... 

 

[Naam]

Quote

Brunolem said:

There are many wellknown investors who recommend to buy gold today... on top of the Chinese and Russian central banks which are buying hands over fists. 

 

These are not paranoid people or entities. 

not only today but since years. that must be the reason why gold lost 30% of its value since 2012.

[lannarebirth]

11 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Yet wrong comparison again... investment and insurance are two different things. 

 

With the monetary policies, and frauds, of the past decades, it is no wonder that stocks have performed like Ben Johnson, doped to their eyeballs by free money rushing in the markets directly from the central banks wide open spigots. 

 

So, we have invented the perpetual wealth creation machine, and it happens to be a printing press! 

 

If only Guttenberg had known... 

 

Once again, no one is saying "invest in gold" but rather "be careful and cover your a.. with some gold"... nothing to lose, a lot to gain... 

 

 

Why Gold? If you're looking for insurance, why not LEAP puts?

[mike787]

I give most of my baht to my thai honey to give to her family and boyfriend...I am the ATM for them.  Buying gold is a waste.  It does nothing but look pretty and shiny. 

[Brunolem]

5 hours ago, lannarebirth said:

 

Why Gold? If you're looking for insurance, why not LEAP puts?

I'd rather have my insurance close to me, and not depending on more or less trustworthy institutions (AIG) 

 

There is no guarantee that the government will fork out another 180 billion dollars (AIG) in order to save players insured with exotic financial products once again... 

[Naam]

16 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

I'd rather have my insurance close to me, and not depending on more or less trustworthy institutions (AIG) 

 

There is no guarantee that the government will fork out another 180 billion dollars (AIG) in order to save players insured with exotic financial products once again... 

Quote

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reported that the $182 billion bailout of the American International Group made him angrier than anything else in the recession. Bernanke said that AIG took risks with unregulated products like a hedge fund while using cash from people's insurance policies. Bernanke added that the government had no choice but to bail it out. Its demise would have created the same kind of economic collapse that occurred when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in September 2008. 

 

Fortunately, the long-term cost of the bailout was much less than the initial payout. In fact, taxpayers made a $23 billion profit when the Treasury sold its last shares of the insurance giant. 

https://www.thebalance.com/aig-bailout-cost-timeline-bonuses-causes-effects-3305693

 

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Naam said:

 

Long live the bailouts! 

The essence of true capitalism. 

 

Let's just not forget that shares, included those of AIG, were propelled into the stratosphere thanks to trillions of dollars freshly printed by the Fed and other central banks. 

 

There is also cause for celebration when the Fed buys treasury bonds, because at the end of the year it gives back to the treasury the interests collected on said bonds, so that in effect the government can borrow unlimited amounts at zero cost! 

 

Ain't that a wonderful magical world we are living in? 

 

No matter how wrecklessly we behave, we always end up making a profit... because we have a secret weapon in the shape of a printer... damn! we are so smart! 

 

[lannarebirth]

27 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Long live the bailouts! 

The essence of true capitalism. 

 

Let's just not forget that shares, included those of AIG, were propelled into the stratosphere thanks to trillions of dollars freshly printed by the Fed and other central banks. 

 

There is also cause for celebration when the Fed buys treasury bonds, because at the end of the year it gives back to the treasury the interests collected on said bonds, so that in effect the government can borrow unlimited amounts at zero cost! 

 

Ain't that a wonderful magical world we are living in? 

 

No matter how wrecklessly we behave, we always end up making a profit... because we have a secret weapon in the shape of a printer... damn! we are so smart! 

 

 

Another way to look at it is the way I look at it, ie: all wealth is relative. Whether it be the wealth of individuals or the wealth of nations. You would not be wrong to state that the US government are profligate spenders and their taxation policy is an abomination with regard to their upcoming liabilities. But you have to ask yourself the question, "compared to whom"? It's a bit like when you and your buddy encounter a malicous bear in the woods. You don't have to outrun the bear, you only have to outrun your buddy.

 

BTW, those decrying the relative strength of the THB should keep this in mind.

[Naam]

44 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Ain't that a wonderful magical world we are living in? 

yes it is... for those who are embracing reality and acting accordingly prudent as best as they can but based on their means instead of moaning, criticising, barking up irrelevant trees and expecting Armageddon early next week.

[Rc2702]

21 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

 

Another way to look at it is the way I look at it, ie: all wealth is relative. Whether it be the wealth of individuals or the wealth of nations. You would not be wrong to state that the US government are profligate spenders and their taxation policy is an abomination with regard to their upcoming liabilities. But you have to ask yourself the question, "compared to whom"? It's a bit like when you and your buddy encounter a malicous bear in the woods. You don't have to outrun the bear, you only have to outrun your buddy.

 

BTW, those decrying the relative strength of the THB should keep this in mind.

No I'm pretty sure it's between you and the bear.

[Naam]

53 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Let's just not forget that shares, included those of AIG, were propelled into the stratosphere thanks to trillions of dollars freshly printed by the Fed and other central banks.

let's not forget that without AIG's bailout the 2008 Lehman hurricane would have been demoted a moderate thunderstorm. by the way... shares, bonds and most other financial assets were not propelled into stratosphere by trillions of printed dollars. they just bounced back to near former levels by the end of 2009. lucky were those who had the guts to get in again in spring 2009 (double, triple, quadruple profits in a single calendar year).

[lannarebirth]

21 minutes ago, Rc2702 said:

No I'm pretty sure it's between you and the bear.

Well, I'm not afraid of the bear. It took me about 40 years to learn this, but I discovered that's it's good to be the guy with some money set aside when everyone else is broke. There are some incredibly cheap opportunities that present themselves in those circumstances.

[Rc2702]

9 minutes ago, lannarebirth said:

Well, I'm not afraid of the bear. It took me about 40 years to learn this, but I discovered that's it's good to be the guy with some money set aside when everyone else is broke. There are some incredibly cheap opportunities that present themselves in those circumstances.

I agree and I have had the same idea. I have seen Indictators local to me too but I think it's worth waiting a bit longer to see how much of a sprawl the current climate has on appetites.