Academic reveals Neil Ferguson has patchy record modelling

[Logosone]

Professor Michael Thrusfield of Edinburgh University said Prof Ferguson was previously instrumental in modelling that led to the cull of more than 6 million animals during the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001, which left rural Britain economically devastated. Then, Prof Ferguson and his Imperial colleagues concluded: 'Extensive culling is sadly the only option for controlling the current British epidemic.' But Prof Thrusfield, an expert in animal diseases, claimed the model made incorrect assumptions about how foot and mouth disease was transmitted and, in a 2006 review, he claimed Imperial's foot and mouth model was 'not fit for purpose', while in 2011 he said it was 'severely flawed'. Prof Thrusfield told The Daily Telegraph the episode was 'a cautionary tale' about the limits of mathematical modelling and he felt a sense of 'déjà vu' about the current situation.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8258043/Professor-Neil-Ferguson-warns-100-000-UK-coronavirus-deaths-lockdown-lifted-soon.html

 

 

[KhunBENQ]

Just stumbled upon the name of Neil Ferguson (Imperial College) and his "career track" that cost the UK billions of Pounds for no reason.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/neil-fergusonthe-imperial-college-london-virus-modeller-government/

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/16/neil-fergusons-imperial-model-could-devastating-software-mistake/

 

From his timeline:

Quote

Neil Ferguson

 

2001

Professor Ferguson worked on research that led to the mass culling of hundreds of thousands of farm animals during the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic. His work was later challenged in reviews by other academics. 

 

2002

Predicted that between 50 and 50,000 people could die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. He also predicted that number could rise to 150,000 if there was a sheep epidemic as well. In the UK, there have been fewer than 200 deaths from the human form of BSE 

 

2005

Prof Ferguson claimed that up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu. In an interview with the Guardian, he compared it to the 1918 Spanish flu, adding: “There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.” Only several hundred people died worldwide.

 

2009

The Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate of between 0.3 per cent and 1.5 per cent, with his most likely estimate landing at 0.4 per cent. A Government estimate based on his advice was that a reasonable worst-case scenario was the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths. Swine flu killed just 457 people in the UK, with the chief medical officer concluding in 2009 that the actual mortality rate was 0.026 per cent. 

 

March 2020

A paper produced by Prof Ferguson’s team predicted that the coronavirus pandemic could lead to 250,000 deaths in the UK unless stringent lockdown measures were implemented. His research is said to have convinced the Government to change direction. 

 

And since May 5:

Quote

May 5 2020

Professor Ferguson quits the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage) after The Telegraph confronts him over his married lover visiting him at his home, thereby breaking the lockdown rules

 

Edited May 18, 2020 by KhunBENQ

[yuyiinthesky]

Can't we sue this guy for the damage he's done with his faulty predictions? 
 

[Rancid]

It gets better, some respected computer code experts have now looked at the models and how they were coded. They say it was completely wrong and gives unpredictable responses. As such he'll probably get a knighthood.

[Logosone]

Neil Ferguson's flawed modelling has destroyed millions of livelihoods, reduced some of the best run companies to hand out applicants and the damage caused by his flawed work is immense world-wide.

 

However, he will never be punished. In fact it was politicians lacking good sense that implemented his policies. 

[chessman]

A model says that if it rains heavily non-stop for 48 hours then if people carry on with their routine exactly as normal then 91% of people will get wet. 
 

“But” say the doubters, “if it rains then people change their behaviour patterns, people stay at home and use umbrellas, so the numbers are going to be much less”

“of course” say the people who designed the model “Our model states this explicitly”

 

this doesn’t stop the 91% figure being the one that is publicised most widely. But who do you blame more? The people who designed the model? The press that runs with the 91% figure? The politicians who make decisions about stopping people going outside based on a number in a report that the report itself says won’t happen?

 

[yuyiinthesky]

An acquaintance, with whom I had a heavy discussion, did claim that Neil Fergusson and/or his institute are funded by Bill Gates with seventy something millions. I cannot believe that could be true. Can anybody confirm? Or better the opposite, where to check and proof him wrong?

[tlock]

On 5/18/2020 at 9:41 PM, Rancid said:

It gets better, some respected computer code experts have now looked at the models and how they were coded. They say it was completely wrong and gives unpredictable responses. As such he'll probably get a knighthood.

They refuse to publish the original code that predicted the models.  They hired microsoft engineers to re-write the code in C++ and that's what they published.  I would have expected that it is a normal part of peer reviewed science to publish the exact code used  for the study, not a re-write.

 

[Logosone]

3 hours ago, tlock said:

They refuse to publish the original code that predicted the models.  They hired microsoft engineers to re-write the code in C++ and that's what they published.  I would have expected that it is a normal part of peer reviewed science to publish the exact code used  for the study, not a re-write.

 

Confirmed, the code has not been published. The study Neil Ferguson did was not peer reviewed before it informed UK policy at the government level.

 

https://judithcurry.com/2020/04/01/imperial-college-uk-covid-19-numbers-dont-seem-to-add-up/

[Logosone]

5 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

An acquaintance, with whom I had a heavy discussion, did claim that Neil Fergusson and/or his institute are funded by Bill Gates with seventy something millions. I cannot believe that could be true. Can anybody confirm? Or better the opposite, where to check and proof him wrong?

 

Confirmed. The Bill Gates foundation is a heavy benefactor of Imperial college, they admit it themselves:

 

https://www.gatesfoundation.org/How-We-Work/Quick-Links/Grants-Database/Grants/2020/03/OPP1210755

[yuyiinthesky]

54 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

Confirmed. The Bill Gates foundation is a heavy benefactor of Imperial college, they admit it themselves:

 

https://www.gatesfoundation.org/How-We-Work/Quick-Links/Grants-Database/Grants/2020/03/OPP1210755

 

Wow, thanks! From that link at the gatesfoundation:

 

Quote

Date: March 2020 
Purpose: to develop a new tool for malaria control and elimination in sub-Saharan Africa 
Amount: $79,006,570 
Term: 60 
Topic: Malaria 
Program: Global Health 
Grantee Location: London 
Grantee Website: http://www.imperial.ac.uk 

"Date: March 2020" - Nice coincidence, just when Professor Lockdown got the world in panic mode. No wonder they attract so many conspiracy theories, they make it very easy.

 

[VBF]

12 hours ago, Logosone said:

Neil Ferguson's flawed modelling has destroyed millions of livelihoods, reduced some of the best run companies to hand out applicants and the damage caused by his flawed work is immense world-wide.

 

However, he will never be punished. In fact it was politicians lacking good sense that implemented his policies. 

But they were "following the science"????