Gulf Of Thailand Won't Rise With Global Warming, Expert Claims

[the gent]

Is it not appropriate at this juncture for a moderator to leap in and warn the seeming combatants that the current exchange constitutes 'a useless exchange' designed to inflame and nothing else?

Gosh, never one when you want one .........

Oh! Silly me ........the precious token TG is involved, what a silly billy am I.

Just how does one spell hypocrisy in Thai ?

Edited April 25, 2007 by the gent

[Flysiam]

As if he could help it.

Hmmm, given the fact that I failed to make you grasp the difference between simple sayings of "the problem will disappear" and "the situation will improve" in the corruption thread, then maybe even simple wording won't help.

I know one problem I wouldn't mind see going away......

[OlRedEyes]

What an interesting thread.

I've seen many weird arguments to justify or somehow bring a semblance of logic to the pronouncements encountered here in the fair land of s, but this surely takes the prize.

As things heat up, the 'things are just fine' delusions are going to get weirder and weirder, worldwide. If I did not have kids, I'd be enjoying all of this tremendously.

Expect a massive resurgence of religion.

Edited April 25, 2007 by OlRedEyes

[brahmburgers]

Is this the same guy who designed the drainage network at Swamp Airport?

He must of forgot to take his smart pills that were sitting beside his breadfast of bug larvae and congealed pig's blood - the morning he made his gravity defying statement. ....and he's a University professor? Maybe he should go sit in the corner with an amulet on his head for a half hour - that should straighten things out - as long as it's the proper amulet for the job.

[midas]

It is not unimaginable that melting ice caps would introduce new patterns of water movement that would make water level in the Gulf of Thailand drop below the global mean and remain lower than the present level, at least in the near future.

Besides they keep the records - water level has been dropping and glaciers have been melting at the same time.

But the climate change debate shouldn't just be interested in what happens in the " near future " if we're genuinely worried about future generations ???

If this Thai hydrologist is correct, may be the Gulf of Thailand will be less influenced than say Shanghai or Calcutta although I would like to see

some hard evidence of that before I am prepared to accept that and not just debates about what happens with water in the bath tub

But say " Global warming is not likely to cause the sea level in the Gulf of Thailand to rise " gives the impression that this region is not going to be affected ?

It's an ill-conceived statement and almost suggests Thailand will be exempt from having to make any sacrifices or changes in carbon emissions

[wilko]

Come on! - Land can rise and fall and sea levels are not "level"

What does this mean specifically?

It has already been pointed out that when they dug the panama canal sea levels on either coast were different.

The sea is subject to varying gravitational pulls around the planet as well as other factors such as weather and currents. These all effect the level of the sea, some temporarily others permanently or long term. In the short term surges such as the one that swamped Louisiana are caused by weather but the effects are amplified if accompanied by a long-term rise in sea level. The Gulf of Siam is quite sheltered and as such may well be less likely to suffer from these sort of surges.

Land too is not static...parts of the planet are rising and others are sinking - movement of tectonic plates etc. Thailand is on or near the "ring of Fire" - no jokes please! and the faults in this part of the world may well be causing Thailand to rise up.

The comment about "too far away" I don't understand but there may be truth in that or a misquote by a journalist.

[astral]

It has already been pointed out that when they dug the panama canal sea levels on either coast were different.

Fascinating, see this link for more info.

I wonder why it not true for the Suez canal, which does not have any locks?

[Swelters]

O.K. boys, time to get back to class and take out those blue books. Today's examination has only two questions:

1. Why are 5000 year old archaeological sites that on the edge of the edge of the Gulf of Thailand, said sites being at sea level at the time of their occupation, when global sea levels were lower, now higher than sea level?

2. What would be the effect of an addition of 20 cm of water (e.g. from a global sea level rise) in the Gulf of Thailand on the elevation of the mountains of the Malay-Thai Peninsula?

Swelters

[popshirt]

<snip>

Expect a massive resurgence of religion.

That is even more scary than global warming!

[pnustedt]

With foresight such as Khun Suphat's, Thailand could become the global hub of water ski-ing, complete with mogul runs and ski lifts!

[midas]

O.K. boys, time to get back to class and take out those blue books. Today's examination has only two questions:

2. What would be the effect of an addition of 20 cm of water (e.g. from a global sea level rise) in the Gulf of Thailand on the elevation of the mountains of the Malay-Thai Peninsula?

Swelters

how does anyone know the melting of the ice caps would only add " 20 cm of water " in the Gulf of Thailand ? and I think people should be more worried

about the effects on low-lying areas in Thailand ( where all the wealth is ) than the " mountains of the Malay-Thai Peninsula "

[wilko]

I wonder what even the slightest sea-rise would do to the Bkk area which is almost entirely ar sea-level....for an example look at Bangla-Desh.

[esprit]

Interesting thread. There are opinions from the knowledgeable, opposing opinions from the less so, opinions from those who consider that their own opinions are only worthy of note, The arrogant and ponpous opinion and of course the usual who have no opinion at all on the topic but insist on diverting sideways.

Well, I am not technically qualified to judge or submit an argument in this field either way. However I am considering covering my bets by a) staying put in my BKK condo and building an ark. Anybody else interested in the latter ?

[Swelters]

O.K. boys, time to get back to class and take out those blue books. Today's examination has only two questions:

2. What would be the effect of an addition of 20 cm of water (e.g. from a global sea level rise) in the Gulf of Thailand on the elevation of the mountains of the Malay-Thai Peninsula?

Swelters

how does anyone know the melting of the ice caps would only add " 20 cm of water " in the Gulf of Thailand ? and I think people should be more worried

about the effects on low-lying areas in Thailand ( where all the wealth is ) than the " mountains of the Malay-Thai Peninsula "

Ok, you can answer the question substituting "however many cm you want" for 20 cm. Also, you should be worrying about the low-lying areas because you didn't answer question 1 about coastal archaelogical sites that are higher now than they were when sea level was lower.

Swelters

[Naam]

It has already been pointed out that when they dug the panama canal sea levels on either coast were different.

Fascinating, see this link for more info.

I wonder why it not true for the Suez canal, which does not have any locks?

topography of Suez area is flat. Panama is mountainous. locks had to be built because it was technically not possible to cut that deep into the terrain. nothing to do with different levels of Atlantic and Pacific.

[midas]

O.K. boys, time to get back to class and take out those blue books. Today's examination has only two questions:

2. What would be the effect of an addition of 20 cm of water (e.g. from a global sea level rise) in the Gulf of Thailand on the elevation of the mountains of the Malay-Thai Peninsula?

Swelters

how does anyone know the melting of the ice caps would only add " 20 cm of water " in the Gulf of Thailand ? and I think people should be more worried

about the effects on low-lying areas in Thailand ( where all the wealth is ) than the " mountains of the Malay-Thai Peninsula "

Ok, you can answer the question substituting "however many cm you want" for 20 cm. Also, you should be worrying about the low-lying areas because you didn't answer question 1 about coastal archaelogical sites that are higher now than they were when sea level was lower.

Swelters

I dont know your answer to question 1 - I am not really bothered with whatever your " theories " on that are - but as wilko has already said which is far more relevance " I wonder what even the slightest sea-rise would do to the Bkk area which is almost entirely ar sea-level.. "

[John K]

Meanwhile........

Bangkok gets that sinking feeling

BangkokPost.com from Reuters reports

Thailand's best known disaster prognosticator said on Wednesday global warming will put Bangkok a metre under water in less than 20 years, adding: "You will need a motorboat instead of a car."

Smith Dharmasaroja, head of Thailand's National Disaster Warning Centre, told the Reuters news agency that rising seas and natural sinking will put Bangkok under water by 2025 - unless work starts now on a huge dyke to protect the capital.

"If nothing is done, Bangkok will be at least 50 centimetres to one metre under water," Reuters quoted Mr Smith as saying during an interview in Bangkok.

Mr Smith gained notoriety 12 years ago when he predicted Thailand was in danger of being hit by a tsunami. Largely dismissed as a crackpot and retired from government service with the Meteorological Department, he was brought back as a disaster expert after the 2004 tsunami, which killed more than 5,000 people in Thailand alone.

The problem, he says, is two-fold.

The city is subsiding at a rate of 10cm per year, partly due to excessive pumping of underground water.

Global warming is causing seas to rise and there is evidence of severe coastal erosion just downstream from Bangkok.

To avert disaster, Smith said, the city needed to construct a massive dyke to protect it from rising seas and increasingly violent storms.

"The system has to be started right now. Otherwise it will be too late to protect our capital city," he said.

Mr Smith, as usual, was scathing when asked about how authorities are facing the threat.

"The government does not pay any attention at all."

[midas]

Meanwhile........

Bangkok gets that sinking feeling

BangkokPost.com from Reuters reports

Thailand's best known disaster prognosticator said on Wednesday global warming will put Bangkok a metre under water in less than 20 years, adding: "You will need a motorboat instead of a car."

Smith Dharmasaroja, head of Thailand's National Disaster Warning Centre, told the Reuters news agency that rising seas and natural sinking will put Bangkok under water by 2025 - unless work starts now on a huge dyke to protect the capital.

"If nothing is done, Bangkok will be at least 50 centimetres to one metre under water," Reuters quoted Mr Smith as saying during an interview in Bangkok.

Mr Smith gained notoriety 12 years ago when he predicted Thailand was in danger of being hit by a tsunami. Largely dismissed as a crackpot and retired from government service with the Meteorological Department, he was brought back as a disaster expert after the 2004 tsunami, which killed more than 5,000 people in Thailand alone.

The problem, he says, is two-fold.

The city is subsiding at a rate of 10cm per year, partly due to excessive pumping of underground water.

Global warming is causing seas to rise and there is evidence of severe coastal erosion just downstream from Bangkok.

To avert disaster, Smith said, the city needed to construct a massive dyke to protect it from rising seas and increasingly violent storms.

"The system has to be started right now. Otherwise it will be too late to protect our capital city," he said.

Mr Smith, as usual, was scathing when asked about how authorities are facing the threat.

"The government does not pay any attention at all."

Over to you Swelters ?

[Tony Clifton]

Bangkok gets that sinking feeling

BangkokPost.com from Reuters reports

Thailand's best known disaster prognosticator said on Wednesday global warming will put Bangkok a metre under water in less than 20 years, adding: "You will need a motorboat instead of a car."

It ain't all that bad.

No more helmets and tea money, no more undertaking on the roads, no more flashing lights behind you while driving, Songkran death numbers will drop dramatically, the elevated expressway will be a great 50km long place to go fishing, no more food hawkers on sidewalks, no more walking in dog shit as most soi dogs will have drowned, Pattaya's floating brothel business will flourish, Suwharnabhumi will be rediscovered underwater in 5000 years, TRT will have to move their headquarters again (or be moved to another detention centre), no more smoking trucks and buses, public transport passengers will drown instead of burn, no more weekly predictions of floods...

Edited May 2, 2007 by Tony Clifton

[LaoPo]

Bangkok gets that sinking feeling

BangkokPost.com from Reuters reports

Thailand's best known disaster prognosticator said on Wednesday global warming will put Bangkok a metre under water in less than 20 years, adding: "You will need a motorboat instead of a car."

It ain't all that bad.

No more helmets and tea money, no more undertaking on the roads, no more flashing lights behind you while driving, Songkran death numbers will drop dramatically, the elevated expressway will be a great 50km long place to go fishing, no more food hawkers on sidewalks, no more walking in dog shit as most soi dogs will have drowned, Pattaya's floating brothel business will flourish, Suwharnabhumi will be rediscovered underwater in 5000 years, TRT will have to move their headquarters again (or be moved to another detention centre), no more smoking trucks and buses, public transport passengers will drown instead of burn, no more weekly predictions of floods...

Your comment would have been funny if it wasn't so serious.

Bangkok and the rest of the country will be dead, over and out....

25 years ago I was already walking up to my waist in water in BKK when the city was flooded....not funny.

LaoPo

[John K]

Somehow some of his logic does not make sense in particular the ground water. Considering the issue of the airport where the water is just 1 meter below the runway, and that it was a swamp I would tend to think the water would return very quickly. Also I suspect sinkholes would appear and cracks in buildings that have shallow foundations if there was no water. His sinking theory is a little off from what I was taught but would be sound if Bangkok was even 10 meters higher. If you factor in long term climate change that would cause a prolonged drought then conditions as described could be more likely. However I have also watched the excavation of new building sites particularly on the corner of Sukhumvit 36 and next to soi cowboy and very little pumping of ground water was needed.

[LaoPo]

Somehow some of his logic does not make sense in particular the ground water. Considering the issue of the airport where the water is just 1 meter below the runway, and that it was a swamp I would tend to think the water would return very quickly. Also I suspect sinkholes would appear and cracks in buildings that have shallow foundations if there was no water. His sinking theory is a little off from what I was taught but would be sound if Bangkok was even 10 meters higher. If you factor in long term climate change that would cause a prolonged drought then conditions as described could be more likely. However I have also watched the excavation of new building sites particularly on the corner of Sukhumvit 36 and next to soi cowboy and very little pumping of ground water was needed.

Disasters DO happen...

Excessive up country rainfall for days or weeks (it does happen you know!) in combination with an excessive Gulf springtide....and Bangkok is in serious trouble!

It happened in various places all over the world before...and it could happen in Thailand and Bangkok in particular also and that doesn't have anything to do with melting glaciers (OP).

LaoPo

[John K]

Somehow some of his logic does not make sense in particular the ground water. Considering the issue of the airport where the water is just 1 meter below the runway, and that it was a swamp I would tend to think the water would return very quickly. Also I suspect sinkholes would appear and cracks in buildings that have shallow foundations if there was no water. His sinking theory is a little off from what I was taught but would be sound if Bangkok was even 10 meters higher. If you factor in long term climate change that would cause a prolonged drought then conditions as described could be more likely. However I have also watched the excavation of new building sites particularly on the corner of Sukhumvit 36 and next to soi cowboy and very little pumping of ground water was needed.

Disasters DO happen...

Excessive up country rainfall for days or weeks (it does happen you know!) in combination with an excessive Gulf springtide....and Bangkok is in serious trouble!

It happened in various places all over the world before...and it could happen in Thailand and Bangkok in particular also and that doesn't have anything to do with melting glaciers (OP).

LaoPo

I am not disagreeing with anyone here, I am simply stating that what he says differs from what I was taught. There is also the possibility some of what I was taught way back then has now been disproved. At one time I lived in southern Florida and observed sinkholes form. In general most of Florida is at sea level the same as Bangkok however I am not a geologist so I don’t know what is below ground as far as bedrock or other features. What he is describing (at least how I read it) that Bangkok will settle as one big slab, however from my experience it is much more erratic hence sinkholes and foundations cracking due to uneven settling.

[stevehaigh]

> The city is subsiding at a rate of 10cm per year, partly due to excessive pumping of underground water.

that's a huge amount! shouldn't the building be crumbling as the other poster pointed out?

[Tony Clifton]

> The city is subsiding at a rate of 10cm per year, partly due to excessive pumping of underground water.

that's a huge amount! shouldn't the building be crumbling as the other poster pointed out?

Many are. Watch for dips on sections of roads as well.

[wilko]

If you look out the window next time you fly into bkk you'll get an idea of the topography....it's just a delta with a few drained bits....waiting for a flood.

[jumnien]

I'm sure the Generals are getting their buddies to submit plans for building that dyke around Bangkok as quickly as possible. Sounds like quite an expenditure and undoubltedly some of the money allocated will actually go towards building it. Maybe they could hire Halliburton as a consultant and get the US off their back on the IP issue.

[Plus]

They should have mentioned that Dr. Smith refused to release details of govt tsunami response for fear of Thailand being sued.

10 cm a year doesn't sound right, maybe for some areas.

[Briggsy]

Would this be an example of the mai pen rai attitude?

[highdiver]

I looked at a program on bbc horizons that explained that global warming is only pat of the equasion.

it is now apparetn that global warming is affected by global dimming.

in short we not only produce green house gases but also polute the atmosphere casuing a dimming affect that actually contridict the global warming.

now as we try and controll polution and avoid all the health problems associated with polution we are actually excelerating the global warming.

a must see movie for all those intrested.

have a look at the following

http://www.globalissues.org/EnvIssues/Glob...obaldimming.asp

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes...g_summary.shtml

at the end of the day they are predicting that the changes of global warming are a lot sooner and they will be in the next 10-20 yesrs and not in 100 years.

a nice house on avery tall hill is a very good investment in long term.