Cost of Covid19 Infections - Sturgis Event Review

[geriatrickid]

The USA has now provided a  documented  case study of the cost of Covid19 when a jurisdiction is "open".

The takeaway is that there is a significant social and economic cost that attaches to not having social distancing measures in effect. It is a cost that is never ever acknowledged  by those who are  most vocal in their criticism of social distancing and mask wear standards.

 

The report is a searing indictment of the  Americans who attended the Sturgis, South Dakota  motorcycle rally. (The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was held over a 10-day period from August 7 through August 16, 2020, with pre-Rally events beginning on August 3. Estimated attendance was 462,182)

The participants for the most part refused to social distance and to wear masks. Although some of the participants are starting to die, the underlying issues are the spin off infections and the direct cost of those infections.   The event has resulted in a reliably calculated  263,708 additional Covid 19 cases.  Adding the number of new cases estimated by synthetic control (3.6 per 1,000 population, scaled by the South Dakota population of approximately 858,000) brings the total number of cases to 266,796 or 19 percent of 1.4 million new cases of COVID-19 in the United States between August 2nd 2020 and September 2nd 2020. 

If you  look at the reported cases in the USA  during this period, you will observe a surge in infections during the Sturgis rally period.  Nice coincidence as they say. 

 

The report states that If we conservatively assume that all of these cases were non-fatal, then these cases represent a cost of over $12.2 billion, based on the statistical cost of a COVID-19 case of $46,000 estimated by Kniesner and Sullivan (2020). 

 

There you have it:  documented estimate of the cost of selfishness of a group of Americans who can't be bothered about social responsibility.  And for those who will question the estimation model. it is the same  modeling method employed by the contrarians darling, Sweden, except this study uses a more conservative approach.  Also of interest is the direct cost of $46,000 per infected person in the USA.    Even if one wishes to  approach the direct cost and  say that many of these people will have assumed the costs themselves, the fact remains that these infected people returned to their home states where they spread the disease.  Even if one cuts the estimates in half or by 3/4 it is still an immense financial burden.

 

I anticipate that the report will be attacked as a left wing plot. Note that the report is a joint effort with documentation undertaken by the Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies at San Diego State University and validated by the IZA Institute of Labor Economics in Bonn Germany.  Both are reputable institutions. There will be some who won't read the report, but will instead attack the authors claiming it is a "left wing radical" plot. Unfortunately for these people, the University of San Diego is not known as a hot bed of liberalism and grant funding for the  study comes from the Troesh Family Foundation and the Charles Koch Foundation. The Koch Family are known as very conservative and right wing. In plain language, they don't fund "liberals".   The IZA is an independent economic research institute that conducts research in labor economics and offers evidence-based policy advice on labor market issues.  It is supported by the Deutsche Post Foundation, which again is not a gaggle of "commies".

 

Reference:  This is an incredible and frightening read.  

The initial report has been  issued as a working paper: IZA DP No. 13670 The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19 SEPTEMBER 2020 Dhaval Dave Bentley University, IZA, NBER and CHEPS Andrew I. Friedson University of Colorado Denver and CHEPS Drew McNichols CHEPS, University of San Diego-California and San Diego State University

 

https://cheps.sdsu.edu/docs/Contagion_Externality_Sturgis_Motorcycle_Rally_9-5-20_Dave_et_al.pdf?_ga=2.65399854.1222451202.1599621898-541372901.1599621898

 

Read the document. Even if you disagree with the  numbers of infected; the  references, and the data  is an eye opener.

[Matzzon]

29 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

Also of interest is the direct cost of $46,000 per infected person in the USA.

And you actually believe numbers like this. ????????????

Edited September 9, 2020 by Matzzon

[geriatrickid]

40 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

And you actually believe numbers like this. ????????????

Yes I can accept the values provided as a good indication. The values that were used to determine cost are standardized and are derived from the value per statistical life (VSL) and relative severity/injury estimates used by the US Government.

As I wrote, even if you wish to  cut the values in 1/2 or 3/4, one is still left with several billion dollars.

 

Do you have an alternative cost per infected person?