Worst case scenario: 18,000 daily new COVID cases by mid January

[Patong2021]

9 hours ago, runamok27 said:

This wave will burn out by the middle to end of January if not sooner. The virus just doesn't spread in Thailand like other places and it is not nearly as severe. They are having all of these infections now but watch in about 2 weeks the deaths will hardly tick up. The spread may continue at a moderate pace due to actual testing but watch the death numbers barely move. The weak in Thailand die, the weak in the West are kept alive with a pile of pills, so there are far, far more people who can be killed by this virus due to pre-existing conditions. 

 

Look what happened at the beginning of this pandemic in Thailand. Thailand shut down and millions of workers who lost their jobs were supposed to scatter across the country and bring the virus to every corner of Thailand and nothing much happened. If that initial pin headed move didn't crush Thailand with the virus a few hundred folks sneaking across the border bringing the virus with them won't either. 

 

Do you all really think this is the only tiny spike of the virus Thailand has experienced in the last 12 months? It has probably been going on the whole time but nobody noticed because there are so few severe cases in Thailand. No matter what the government does, mark my words, this will completely blow over in less than a month. Lockdown or not lockdown will make no difference, it will be gone shortly.

 

Unfortunately, this is not what has happened in countries with similar weather. Look at the growth in South Africa, Nigeria and other African countries. I think it is hot and humid in much of Africa. Thailand have an estimated 2.4 million with diabetes and there are millions with other pre-existing conditions.

 

When Thailand closed border and many activities which used foreign worker it slowed spread of disease. It is only when Thailand opened its heavy foreign worker dependent industries that foreign infected migrant worker entered. Also the foreign workers do not mix with regular Thai people, so infection stay in migrant worker community. I don't think Thailand tested them regular same as Thai people.

 

I do not agree it will "blow over" in month. We will see and I will be very happy to be wrong.

 

[tandor]

21 hours ago, Joinaman said:

while i agree with your post about the covid giving debilitating conditions, but surely this condition is not confined just to Covid, is it ?

im guessing there are many other illnesses and diseases that give these conditions too,, heart attacks, strokes, cancer, etc, yet we only ever seem to mention the Covid one. 

...hmmm!  Sars Covid2 is a new virus found and has no precedent, so all has to be learnt about it by studying it closely.

[thedemon]

The modeling must have been done by the Imperial college London.

[chainarong]

On 12/29/2020 at 2:43 PM, samtam said:

Could they specify "control measures"?

Complete lock down