Baht Controls

[Bruce1]

So if you sell it and cash in, take your 50% profit and move to say Thailand... great and good luck.

If you sell it and buy another is Brisbane theres a good chance that your new hones price will have gone up 50% also.

Wheres the make?

Because housing needs change with time. Our first house was small. Our second house was small and we extended and made it big to make room for 3 kids. Our third house was big to begin with and we've renovated. The kids are gone. We made profits on each of them and were able to move up. Now we can walk away with a big fat profit if we sell. Our next residence will be much smaller, maybe even a townhouse or unit will be enough. We could pay cash and have money left over. And we might change location.

Or we might just invest the lot and go rent a nice place in Thailand (certainly won't be buying here).

Housing is the easiest way for citizens of developed countries to make tax free wealth, since incomes are taxed highly.

[Naam]

Housing is the easiest way for citizens of developed countries to make tax free wealth, since incomes are taxed highly.

you are assuming that appreciation in immobile property is tax free all over. let me tell you my friend... the rest of the world is not like Oz!

[Bruce1]

Only the familt home is not taxed in Oz. Ivestment property gets capital gains tax. I just paid it on a sale.

[Naam]

Only the familt home is not taxed in Oz. Ivestment property gets capital gains tax. I just paid it on a sale.

not everybody live in Oz Bruce.

[Bruce1]

Only 20 million lucky buggars out of, what? - 6 billion.

I was just clarifying in response to your earlier post.

Besides, are you going to tell me that rising house prices don't provide big benefits to lots of Yanks, Canadians, Europeans and others?

A modest amount of housing inflation is a wonderful thing for most people IMO.

[shochu]

Bruce,

It's a zero sum games except for the banking cartels that get to print funny money.

It all has to come from some where.

So who is luckier - you who had to be told by your bank that it went up 50% over a few years - or - the guy who invested $50,000 that paid out over a $1,000,000 in the same amount of time.

Who is the winner here. In the meantime, you think you are out ahead while everything is infating around us - so much that when we look at the rising stock market (U.S.) it seems to be breaking new highs - but - when you factor in inflation and and the depreciation of the mighty dollar - it is down - quite a bit actually. You really are not ahead - you are just not losing your buying power as quickly as others.

I'm not trying to rain on your parade here of making some dosh - so don't take this the wrong way - but unfortunately - most people do not have an understanding of how the world economy actually works.

It is really a ponzi scheme - these so callled bubbles - and as all such schemes - someone has to pay the piper.

When people actually produce a product or offer a real service as opposed to trying to make money off of other people's sweat - then I will applaud!

This bubble (of all sorts) is going to end with a lot of hard working people losing everything.

[Naam]

Only 20 million lucky buggars out of, what? - 6 billion.

I was just clarifying in response to your earlier post.

Besides, are you going to tell me that rising house prices don't provide big benefits to lots of Yanks, Canadians, Europeans and others?

A modest amount of housing inflation is a wonderful thing for most people IMO.

yes i do Bruce. but this forum is not meant that one publishes dissertations on potential benefits as far as inflated immobile property prices are concerned. a small percentage of homeowners (like you) benefit, most of the others will face a rude awakening.

[Edonista]

Only 20 million lucky buggars out of, what? - 6 billion.

I was just clarifying in response to your earlier post.

Besides, are you going to tell me that rising house prices don't provide big benefits to lots of Yanks, Canadians, Europeans and others?

A modest amount of housing inflation is a wonderful thing for most people IMO.

yes i do Bruce. but this forum is not meant that one publishes dissertations on potential benefits as far as inflated immobile property prices are concerned. a small percentage of homeowners (like you) benefit, most of the others will face a rude awakening.

It depends on where they relocate.

If real estate goes up in your country you can make money selling your house, but if you have to buy a new one same size and location you actually gain nothing.

If you sacrifice yourself and buy something smaller, or if you relocate to Thailand where real estate is far cheaper then in the west, then you have actually gained money (that you can put in bonds or other securities to - hopefully but not surely - make further money )

[highchol]

Only 20 million lucky buggars out of, what? - 6 billion.

I was just clarifying in response to your earlier post.

Besides, are you going to tell me that rising house prices don't provide big benefits to lots of Yanks, Canadians, Europeans and others?

A modest amount of housing inflation is a wonderful thing for most people IMO.

A few million more in UK Bruce. We have similar tax rules. No capital gains tax on your home/ main residence, gains tax's or losses applied to second / investment properties.

I said a few million instead of using the approx 60 million ( uk pop )because alot of people have little or no hope of ever being able to afford a property.

[Naam]

back to "Baht":

today we see the smallest spread in months between offshore and onshore rate USD).

offshore 33.22

onshore 34.56

[Jimjim]

Any ideas as if the baht will creep back to 40 as many members here and some Thai analyst predicted in the papers?

[Naam]

Any ideas as if the baht will creep back to 40 as many members here and some Thai analyst predicted in the papers?

anything is possible. but for the time being 1 USD = 40 THB = wet dream.

[VegasVic]

Any ideas as if the baht will creep back to 40 as many members here and some Thai analyst predicted in the papers?

Jimjim, If anyone tries to tell you that they know exact date when the baht will begin to tumble back you can be assured that they are FOS. It might come as early as the end of summer or it could be early next year, but when those investor redemtions begin to happen and the market is flooded with baht, the adjective "creeping" will not begin to explain what will be going on with the baht excahange rate. As quickly as the baht went fron 42/1USD to 32/1USD last year on the international currency exchanges, the move back will occur even faster. As far as the US dollar goes, it has been shorted now for over three years by goerge soros and many other large hedge funds, and because the weak dollar has lowered unemployment, increased corporate porfits and sent most of the major stock exchanges in the US to record highs, the US government has been glad to accept the gift of a weak dollar, but as all things go in cycles (and as the trade deficit shrinks) the US dollar will also rebound at some point (if it was up to the EU it would occur tomorrow, the weak dollar is killing the european export sector) and if this were to occur in conjuction with the baht coming back to earth then you would likely see the baht/dollar at somewhere in the 45-50 range. Personally I don't think that these two situations will occur simultaneously, the baht will likely come tumbling back down long before the dollar starts to strenghten and the dollar strenghtening cycle will take years not months. So in answer to your question YES! I would imagine that the baht/dollar exchange will gravitate back to where it has been over the last few years in the 40-42 range, as the pendulum swings back you might see it briefly hit 45 or higher, but without the dollar strengthening concurrently it will likely revert back to that 40-42 range which will be one of the saving graces of the Thai economy at that point, along with hopefully a well thought out constitution and a democratically elected government. P.S. For those posters who don't believe in hedge funds and private equity moving markets and think that I may just be throwning big bad george soros's name in the mix here, all you have to do is google georgie boys name and you will find out that he has been shorting the U.S. dollar for at least 3-4 years now!

[shochu]

Trying to predict where a currency will be is very hard because we don't know everything happening behind the scenes and we are never sure of all the numbers being used. And - with my own investments - which I am up and doing very well on all - except of course with currencies (for now) but I feel that it will work out in due time for me in this regard eventually.

I feel that asain currencies will stay the same - whereas the dollar will continue to fall - and the baht will try to stay in tandem with it. Why? Because the U.S. is still a larger player in LOS than other countries - for now. So - I think the baht-dollar level will maintain its present course even as the dollar falls relative to other asain currencies.

This is based on fundamentals (which I won't get into - too long). But I will say this - countries have used their currencies for a long time by lowering their values to export their way out of trouble and this is evidenced by Japan and their currency the yen. The U.S. has so many problems the only way they can clear them is to devalue their currency which essentially lowers their debt value and at the same time with inflation - are the tools of the trade to make debt go away faster - and they have a lot of debt. This is especially effective when most of your companies (amercian) have a substantial amount of their income coming from offshore operations and with recent legislative measures allows then to bring the profits home for no tax liabilities and BOOM - you have the makings of on paper a great economy so why play with this system while you have to deal with a massive problem - which = dollar stays down and goes lower (if it can due to pressure from other countries) and LOS tries to at least stay close - so get used to more of the same rates for exchange or even a stronger baht - LOS fundamentals are quite good - unless - of course - something unexpected happens - or the PPT go into action.

My guess is as good as any other...so ... don't sweat it too much - life goes on!