Tensions in the South China Sea between Australia and China have put Indonesia in a bind

[ASEAN NOW Content Team]

 

SYDNEY — Analysts note that increased Sino-Australian tensions over the new AUKUS deal, which calls for the sharing of US nuclear submarine technology with Australia, as well as China's military expansionism in the South China Sea, have placed Indonesia in a precarious balancing act.

The AUKUS agreement, which would see Australia acquire valued US technology in order to build a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, is widely seen as a strategic deterrent by Washington and Canberra against China's aggressive naval development in the South China Sea.

 

Indonesia, a huge archipelagic nation sandwiched between China and Australia, is home to key sea lanes that connect the Indian and Pacific oceans, as well as the South China Sea and the waters off northern Australia.
Submarines might slip through its deep-sea trenches undetected.

In a restrained five-point statement made in September in response to the AUKUS accord, Indonesia expressed "grave concern over the continued arms competition and power projection in the region."

 

The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which governs navigation in international waters, was also encouraged to be respected in the statement.
Indonesia is "concerned" that Australia's procurement of nuclear submarines may lead to an arms race and regional instability, according to Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Mahendra Siregar.

 

Affront to nonalignment

 

The stretching of great power competition in Indonesia's neighbourhood is seen as a slap in the face to the country's long-held foreign policy of nonalignment and regional conflict resolution through ASEAN-centered diplomacy and discussion.

"They're quite concerned."
Many Indonesians have a genuine fear of their backyard becoming a battle zone, according to analyst David Engel of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute's Indonesia programme.

 

"They believe Australia is stationed in what they regard to be their sea, conducting war from there."
One of their main worries is this.
It's also possible that there would be fighting within their "tanah air" [homeland] in the event of a horrible struggle.
They don't want a big power struggle in their neighbourhood.”

 

AUKUS has also shown splits within ASEAN, which Indonesia sees as the best platform for de-escalating tensions.
Indonesia's leaders are "particularly worried," according to Engel, since it "undermines what they perceive as crucial to their entire strategy for maintaining peace and stability."
They don't want to be in a situation where ASEAN members are forced to choose between the United States and China."

 

'Murkying the waters'

 

Furthermore, Gilang Kembara, a researcher at the Jakarta-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, claimed the AUKUS submarine purchase was "mudding the seas" and raising concerns about submarine accidents in Indonesian waters.

"Indonesia recognises that it lacks the resources to clean up any mess that may result from a malfunction or accident."
Another member of the club has been added with the addition of nuclear-powered submarines.
India and China already have similar capabilities," Kembara told VOA.

 

Last month's incursions by Chinese coast guard and survey vessels along Indonesia's northern maritime border were equally affronting to the country's deeply held sense of sovereignty.

The Chinese vessels appeared on Indonesia's horizon, lingering for a month along its exclusive economic zone in the resource-rich North Natuna Sea, close to a rig where undersea gas exploration was underway, just as Foreign Affairs Minister Retno Marsudi expressed "deep concern" about the AUKUS submarines deal.

 

Harbour Energy, a British oil and gas business, is exploring the area with state-owned Russian corporation Zarubezhneft, using a rented Malaysian underwater oil rig.
According to some witnesses, the survey vessel was charting the seabed in search of oil riches.

"It's interesting to observe that the Chinese boats were investigating the seabed in the EEZ [Exclusive Economic Zone] at the same time as Indonesia put out its measured statement, and yet they were quiet," Engel remarked in an interview.

 

"There is a growing amount of worry, particularly from a number of civil society organisations.
There is scepticism about China's objectives, according to Kembara, who specialises in strategic and security studies as well as marine issues.

Three times in the last 18 months, fishermen have discovered suspected Chinese submarine drones in Indonesian waters.
The most recent discovery was made in December in a nautical corridor connecting the South China Sea to Darwin, Australia's northernmost city.