Actually, it's not only about being busy in Ukraine. It's about Ukraine having a strong army, mastering "modern" warfare technology and tactics, and also its people being ready to die in a war (which most Western Europeans are likely not ready to do). Even if there is a ceasefire or peace agreement, Russia will likely keep at least part of Donbass and Crimea, which Ukraine will practically never accept. As soon as Russia is 'busy' attacking a NATO country, Ukraine will attack Donbass (invoking a likely reciprocal defense agreement with NATO), this time with full NATO involvement and support. That's a reason why one of Russia's conditions for peace is to downsize the Ukrainian army and to forbid some offensive weapons such as long range missiles. If not, Ukraine's military will hang like a Damocles sword over Russia. As to the current Russian threat, it's written in the OP that: "Lithuania's ambassador to Nato said this week that Russia was more likely to rely on hybrid tactics, including missile or drone incursions, rather than launch a conventional military assault."
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