World Bank predicts 2.8% economic growth for Thailand

[snoop1130]

 

The World Bank predicted a modest economic growth of 2.8% for Thailand in 2024, with an acceleration of 3.0% in 2025. This forecast announced today, April 1, is underpinned by the nation’s struggling exports and a postponed budget.

 

This projection for 2024 and 2025 marks a decrease from the previously estimated figures of 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively, set in December. Thailand, which holds the position of being the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia, saw a growth of 1.9% in 2023 but experienced an unexpected contraction of 0.6% in the last quarter of 2023, compared to the third quarter.

 

Following the same trend, the Bank of Thailand also downgraded its growth forecast for 2024 to a range of 2.5% to 3.0% from the initial 3.2% in February. The rationale behind this reduction is attributed to the slackening global trade and the delay in the budget, which in turn has decelerated government spending, as explained by the World Bank’s Senior Economist, Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, during a virtual press conference.

 

The World Bank, in its statement, also pointed out that the dim prospects for exports and public investment contributed to the revised outlook. Meanwhile, the shippers’ council has projected an export growth of 1% to 2% for the current year.

 

The World Bank further identified tourism and private consumption as the pivotal factors propelling growth, with tourist arrivals expected to reach 90% of pre-pandemic levels this year. The government has set a target of attracting a record 40 million foreign visitors in 2024, a significant jump from the 28 million visitors in 2023.

 

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has described the current economic situation as a “crisis” and emphasized the need for a substantial fiscal stimulus. To address this, the government has proposed a 500 billion baht handout to 50 million Thais, a cornerstone policy that has been delayed.

 

The implementation of this ‘digital wallet’ scheme could potentially add 1% to the growth, but it’s also likely to increase public debt, stated Kiatipong, reported Bangkok Post.

 

By Alex Morgan

Caption: Picture courtesy of Stay in Thailand

 

Source: The Thaiger 2024-04-01

 

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[MrPancake]

These forecasts are always wrong.

Central banks are even worse than TAT when it comes to tourism numbers...

 

 

[hotchilli]

12 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has described the current economic situation as a “crisis” and emphasized the need for a substantial fiscal stimulus. To address this, the government has proposed a 500 billion baht handout to 50 million Thais, a cornerstone policy that has been delayed.

Meanwhile the girls are working flat-out servicing the burgeoning tourists 

[JimHuaHin]

That is an optimistic prediction.

[newbee2022]

41 minutes ago, JimHuaHin said:

That is an optimistic prediction.

It's just one of those predictions. Depends strongly on developments in world's peace. (Ukraine-Russia, China-Taiwan, Houthi-Jemen, Israel-Palestine, USA-World and others to come)🙏

[lavender19]

Shouldn't the headline be. The world bank downgrades Thailand's growth

[Guderian]

Very sad for the country. Back in the early 90's Tiger phase, annual growth of 7% or more was normal. It's the magic number, and if a country can sustain it for a decade then it's economy doubles in size. For a developing economy like Thailand's, 2.5% or 3% is almost like standing still in the race to achieve First World levels of wealth. And worse, much of that limited growth will end up in the pockets of a small number of wealthy people, rather than benefitting the masses of poor Thais earning the minimum wage - or less.