Putin May Resort to Nuclear Weapons if Russia Faces Defeat, Says Kyiv

Social Media · June 17, 2024

Oleksandr Lytvynenko, head of Ukraine's national security council, has issued a chilling warning regarding the potential use of nuclear weapons by President Vladimir Putin should Russia face a significant military setback in Ukraine. Speaking to The Times, Lytvynenko outlined scenarios in which a catastrophic defeat could lead to the collapse of Russian front lines, mass desertions, and protests in Moscow, pushing Putin to consider using tactical nuclear weapons.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there have been frequent threats from Russian officials to deploy nuclear weapons against Ukraine and its Western allies. While these threats have become more routine and thus less shocking, they remain a serious concern. Recently, G7 leaders at a summit in Italy reaffirmed that any use of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapons by Russia would result in severe consequences.

Lytvynenko emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating, "We can’t rule out anything if Russia is on the verge of a catastrophic defeat." He elaborated that such a defeat could lead to the collapse of Russian front lines and widespread instability within Russia itself. However, he noted that there is no indication Putin would resort to nuclear weapons while Russia maintains the upper hand in the conflict.

Tactical nuclear weapons, designed for battlefield use and with lower yields than strategic nuclear weapons, have not been used in conflict since 1945. Lytvynenko expressed doubt that Putin would use strategic nuclear weapons due to the almost certain risk of igniting a third world war, saying, "He wants to live." He added that a battlefield defeat in Ukraine might not automatically lead to nuclear escalation, as Putin could try to spin the situation as a victory to the Russian public, given the Kremlin's control over national media and its crackdown on dissent since the invasion.

Skepticism about Lytvynenko's concerns was voiced by Oleksandra Ustinova, an opposition MP, who remarked, "Putin is crazy, but even so, he understands that there are some things that you can do and some things you can’t do." Lytvynenko's extensive background, including his studies at the KGB academy in Moscow and his tenure at the Royal College of Defence Studies in London, lends significant weight to his assessments.

In parallel, a global peace conference organized by President Volodymyr Zelensky in Switzerland saw participation from delegates of over 90 countries, excluding Russian and Chinese officials. The conference’s final declaration, as seen by Reuters, called for the respect of Ukraine’s territorial integrity but did not outline a clear path to ending the war or initiating talks with Moscow. However, it did explicitly condemn Russia's nuclear threats.

Zelensky has steadfastly ruled out direct talks with Putin and any negotiations over Ukrainian territories claimed by Russia. Putin recently issued an ultimatum for a ceasefire, demanding Ukraine surrender several regions and lift Western sanctions, which Kyiv and its allies swiftly rejected.

Russia's recent drills involving tactical nuclear weapons near Ukrainian-controlled areas and in the northwest were presented by Putin as a response to Western support for Ukraine. Zelensky, however, contends that the domestic and international backlash from using nuclear weapons would be detrimental to Putin’s regime. Nevertheless, he acknowledged the psychological instability of Putin and his close associates, making it impossible to dismiss the threat entirely. "These people are sick in the head, that’s a fact. Therefore, it’s impossible to say for sure whether they are capable of this or not," Zelensky stated.

The United States has been preparing for the possibility of a Russian nuclear strike since late 2022, particularly as Ukrainian forces made significant gains. A U.S. official told CNN, "The risk level seemed to be going up, beyond where it had been at any other point in time." NATO has noted that there are no indications of imminent nuclear use by Russia. However, the covert nature of tactical nuclear warheads means that preparations could be difficult to detect.

In recent developments, delays in the delivery of American weapons to Ukraine earlier this year, due to a congressional row, allowed Russia to make significant advances on the battlefield. However, renewed supplies have enabled Ukraine to push back, stabilizing the situation in the eastern Kharkiv region. Lytvynenko outlined Ukraine’s dual military strategy, emphasizing the importance of halting Russian advances on the front line and targeting critical infrastructure deep within Russia. "We have two very important military tasks. The first is to stop the Russians on the front line — the second is to strike deep inside Russia," he said, insisting that Ukraine targets infrastructure essential for Russia's war efforts, not civilians.

As the conflict continues, the specter of nuclear escalation remains a potent threat, underscoring the high stakes involved and the volatile nature of the ongoing war. The international community remains vigilant, with diplomatic and military strategies constantly adapting to the shifting dynamics on the ground. The warnings from Kyiv serve as a reminder of the precarious balance that must be maintained to prevent further escalation and strive for a resolution to the conflict.

Credit: Times 2024-06-18

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