Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) Takes Significant Lead

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People gather at Republique plaza to protest the far-right National Rally, which came out strongly ahead in first-round legislative elections

 

Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party has taken a significant lead in the first round of France’s parliamentary elections, initial projections showed. This development marks a historic moment as the RN moves closer to gaining substantial power. With an unusually high voter turnout, the RN bloc garnered 34% of the vote, while the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition secured 28.1%. President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble alliance fell to a distant third with just 20.3%, according to initial estimates by Ipsos.

 

 

Despite leading the vote count, the RN may fall short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, suggesting a potential hung parliament and increased political uncertainty. Projections indicate that after the second round of voting, the RN could secure between 230 and 280 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, a remarkable increase from its previous count of 88 seats. The NFP is expected to win between 125 and 165 seats, while Ensemble could end up with between 70 and 100 seats.

 

 

Macron had called the snap election after his party’s defeat by the RN in the European Parliament elections earlier in the month. This outcome could force Macron to navigate the remainder of his presidential term in an uneasy partnership with a prime minister from an opposition party.

 

In Henin Beaumont, the RN's election party erupted in celebration as the results were announced. However, Marine Le Pen cautioned that the second round of voting would be crucial. “Democracy has spoken, and the French people have placed the National Rally and its allies in first place – and has practically erased the Macronist bloc,” she told a jubilant crowd, adding that “nothing has been won – and the second round will be decisive.”

 

Jordan Bardella, the RN’s 28-year-old leader and prime ministerial hopeful, echoed Le Pen’s sentiment, declaring the upcoming vote as one of the most decisive in the history of the Fifth Republic. Bardella had previously stated that he would refuse to govern a minority government, suggesting that if the RN does not secure an absolute majority, Macron might have to find a prime minister from the hard left or form a technocratic government.

 

A period of political bargaining is now expected, as centrist and left-wing parties consider standing down in certain seats to block the RN from gaining a majority. This strategy, known as the “cordon sanitaire,” has been used in the past to prevent the far-right from taking office. Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the France Unbowed party and a key figure in the NFP, has instructed his supporters to prevent the RN from gaining more seats. Similarly, Marine Tondelier of the Green Party has appealed to Macron to withdraw from certain seats to stop the RN.

 

Macron’s Ensemble allies have also urged their supporters to block the RN, though they have reservations about supporting Melenchon’s party. Gabriel Attal, Macron’s protégé and the outgoing prime minister, emphasized the need to prevent the RN from winning a majority but criticized Melenchon’s France Unbowed party for hindering a credible alternative to a far-right government.

 

Despite these efforts, the RN has made inroads in unexpected areas, winning support in regions traditionally held by other parties. For instance, in the Nord department’s 20th constituency, an RN candidate defeated the leader of the Communist Party, marking the end of a long-standing Communist hold on the seat.

 

Macron’s decision to call a snap election three years ahead of schedule, following his party’s defeat in the European Parliament elections, has brought the country into uncharted territory. The prospect of appointing a prime minister from an opposition party under a “cohabitation” arrangement looms large. This situation could lead to significant challenges in passing domestic laws and may even result in a constitutional crisis if disagreements arise between the president and the parliamentary majority.

 

A far-right government led by the RN could also trigger a financial crisis. The RN’s spending pledges, including reversing Macron’s pension reforms and cutting taxes, come at a time when France might need to implement austerity measures to comply with European Commission fiscal rules. This has raised concerns among bond markets, with warnings of a potential financial crisis similar to that experienced in the UK under Liz Truss.

 

In response to the first-round results, Macron called for a broad democratic and Republican rally in the second round to counter the RN. “Faced with the National Rally, the time has come for a broad, clearly democratic and Republican rally for the second round,” he stated, urging his supporters to rally together.

 

The next few days will be critical as political parties maneuver to block the RN from gaining further power. The outcome of the second round will determine the future direction of French politics and the extent of Marine Le Pen's influence on the national stage.

 

Credit: CNN 2024-07-01

 

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