Given the current political turmoil and exclusion of the PPRP from the newly formed government, how likely is another military coup in Thailand?

I mean it's not that they are announcing it before, right? Surprise is one of the major elements of a coup in any country....

Too soon. The boys are still on R'nR.

 

Give it another couple of years or soon AFTER the next election (if won by PP).

I'd give it a 50:50 chance

 

Been through three of them and this looks pretty much the same

 

 

 

You know it's close when army generals start denying it will happen.

Another military coup like the 2014 coup is unlikely.

Any subsequent "military coup" will be done through its handcrafted 2017 constitution, its 20-Year National Strategy Plan and control of various "watchdog" quasi-government committees.

Case in point was the 2023 "overthrow" of what was to become the Move Forward Party government and 2024 replacement of the PM Thavisin government.

The military has essentially streamlined the electoral system by making it irrelevant.

16 hours ago, CLW said:

Surprise is one of the major elements of a coup in any country....

Gen Prayut announced there would definitely be NO COUP 2 weeks before the last coup! Watch this Space!!!

PM is a company shareholder 

 

Will be removed 

I am curious about this also. Every day the news is quoting Thaksin giving orders or making agreements or setting policies or giving someone an important position in the government. Yet, he is not even a politician anymore and his lovely daughter, says and does nothing notable. It should be clear to the people and military that Thaksin is the PM now. I suspect if it continues then a coup will be coming within a year. 

My best guesstimate would be 2Q 2025, and it will not be the current PM that gets ousted.

50-50 

There will only be a coup if a certain country allows it. 

 

Times have changes. 

17 hours ago, CLW said:

Given the current political turmoil and exclusion of the PPRP from the newly formed government, how likely is another military coup in Thailand?

I mean it's not that they are announcing it before, right? Surprise is one of the major elements of a coup in any country....

Well, I suppose you follow daily stories of Thai politics, don't you?

Making Prawit your enemy seems not very intelligent. So Thaksin will have a hard time. And what will happen to his daughter to sit as PM is questionable. It might be that a coup is on the horizon. And then there is the other one, whose name is not to mention. 😳

 

Nearly zero percent change. Everything has changed. All moral authority is gone. The army is on it's way out. It could take awhile, and it could get ugly, though it will never get to the hellish level of Burma, as the Thai parents would never, ever permit that kind of genocidal behavior from their sons. You take out one Thai, and you are forever disowned by this family. That is all it would take to bring about mass defections from the army ranks. That would sure be fun to witness. Are the pompous generals going to put themselves into harms way? Never. They do not have it in them, they are cowards. 

Won't happen.  The generals are not blind, and saw what happened only a few weeks ago in Bangladesh.

 

The army/police refused to shoot at their own people, and the gov't had to run with tails between legs.

 

I think the people are at a breaking point now, they will object en masse, and the authorities will refuse to kill their own people.

Elements within the military higherarchy may be "up for it".

 

I don't think that the army is "up to It".

Taksin Shinawatra...ousted by coup.

Yingluck Shinawatra.....ousted by coup.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra.......

Anyone else see a pattern?

20 hours ago, CLW said:

Given the current political turmoil and exclusion of the PPRP from the newly formed government, how likely is another military coup in Thailand?

I mean it's not that they are announcing it before, right? Surprise is one of the major elements of a coup in any country....

Dont think it will happen because the people had enough of Prayut and Prawit.  As to the PPRP they have internal issues that are precluding them from doing anything. 

 

The people, including the PP, will not accept military rule.

 

BJT is the new military Elite party and they have control of the PT.  Before we see a coup I think there will be another election called.

With a political system like a mad circus I think it will not take too long before the people in uniform again take over! 

3 hours ago, CanadaSam said:

Won't happen.  The generals are not blind, and saw what happened only a few weeks ago in Bangladesh.

 

The army/police refused to shoot at their own people, and the gov't had to run with tails between legs.

 

I think the people are at a breaking point now, they will object en masse, and the authorities will refuse to kill their own people.

Why do you think this? It has happened several times already in Thailand. The military shooting Thais is not unusual. 

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Nearly zero percent change. Everything has changed. All moral authority is gone. The army is on it's way out. It could take awhile, and it could get ugly, though it will never get to the hellish level of Burma, as the Thai parents would never, ever permit that kind of genocidal behavior from their sons. You take out one Thai, and you are forever disowned by this family. That is all it would take to bring about mass defections from the army ranks. That would sure be fun to witness. Are the pompous generals going to put themselves into harms way? Never. They do not have it in them, they are cowards. 

Yes, times have changed, the era of coups has gone, the government / army has shafted the electorate efficiently as befits a powerful elite making coups obsolete. They are also wary now of international opinion, they went out on a limb banning MFP and got away with it but a coup would be the last straw. It will be interesting to see how they can reign in PP now, they'll not get away with a second banning and Thaksin with his politically honed instincts may yet throw in his lot with the PP at the next elections, that would be the death knell for the old guard, many of whom may not be alive to witness it. No system lasts forever and a new tide will sweep away the dregs; I think even the elites are resigned to that.

On 8/30/2024 at 9:09 AM, CLW said:

Given the current political turmoil and exclusion of the PPRP from the newly formed government, how likely is another military coup in Thailand?

I mean it's not that they are announcing it before, right? Surprise is one of the major elements of a coup in any country....

Not likely at all in 2024, we are too close to year end...

Surely there are some betting websites that post the odds...