Taiwan’s Strategic Reflections on Ukraine: Preparing for an Uncertain Future

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Russia’s war in Ukraine has significantly altered the dynamics of modern warfare, offering critical lessons to countries facing similar threats, particularly Taiwan. As tensions rise in the Taiwan Strait, with Chinese military activities frequently encroaching on Taiwan’s air defense zone and naval exercises signaling potential blockades, Taiwan is forced to consider how it might defend itself in the event of conflict. The situation is dire, as Chinese propagandists openly discuss the possibility of forced Taiwanese capitulation or outright invasion.

 

Taiwan’s military preparations have intensified, evidenced by increased orders of U.S. defense equipment and a record defense budget. However, the island is also keenly observing the unfolding events in Ukraine to glean insights on how to respond effectively if China escalates its aggressive posturing. The changing nature of war, as highlighted by the conflict in Ukraine, suggests that traditional defensive strategies may no longer be sufficient to counter emerging threats.

 

Ukraine’s experience demonstrates the importance of resilient and adaptable military forces. Ukraine’s ability to repel Russian advances, particularly during the initial stages of the invasion, was largely due to the effective mobilization of its territorial defense units. These units, comprising local volunteers and ex-servicemen, played a crucial role in stalling Russian forces, as seen during the defense of Hostomel airport near Kyiv in 2022. This delay provided Ukraine’s regular army with the necessary time to regroup and launch counteroffensives. Taiwan, facing the possibility of invasion by China, could benefit from a similar approach. The island has made strides in bolstering its territorial defense, but further investment and training are essential to ensure its forces are prepared as China continues to exert pressure.

 

Central and Eastern European nations, sharing borders with Russia or its allies, have also recognized the value of territorial defense. Countries like Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have significantly increased the size and scope of their reserve forces, with a focus on intensive training. The United States has supported these efforts, particularly through expanded RIDGE RUNNER Irregular Warfare joint training exercises. The U.S. has a long history of cooperation with Ukrainian forces, which were trained by CIA paramilitary teams, further underscoring the importance of strong international partnerships in preparing for potential conflicts.

 

The war in Ukraine has also emphasized the need to integrate hybrid warfare capabilities into national defense strategies. Russia’s use of cyberattacks, disinformation, and other non-kinetic tactics to destabilize Ukraine and influence global opinion underscores the necessity of a comprehensive security approach. Central and Eastern European NATO members have increasingly focused on enhancing their cyber defenses and countering disinformation. The recent establishment of a NATO Cyber Security Centre in Washington, D.C., aims to coordinate these efforts across the alliance, reflecting the growing recognition of hybrid warfare’s significance.

 

For Taiwan, which lacks a formal defense treaty with the United States or other democratic allies, strengthening diplomatic and military ties is crucial. Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense against Russia has been bolstered by significant military and financial support from NATO members and other Western countries. Taiwan must similarly deepen its relationships with the United States and other like-minded nations, participating in joint military exercises and securing commitments for international support in the event of conflict. The recent increase in U.S. military personnel stationed in Taiwan, from around 30 to as many as 200, is a noteworthy development that China will need to consider.

 

The war in Ukraine has also accelerated efforts to enhance interoperability among NATO forces, particularly in integrating the defense capabilities of frontline members. Joint exercises have become more frequent and complex, ensuring that these countries are better prepared to respond collectively to any potential aggression. For Taiwan, these developments offer valuable lessons on the importance of preparing for a multi-domain conflict and investing in the right defense equipment and strategies.

 

As Taiwan prepares for the future, it must adopt innovative approaches to defense. Ukraine’s unexpected success in the Black Sea, using cheap, unmanned drone vessels to sink Russian warships, illustrates the need for smart thinking and rapid technological development. As Taiwan faces an increasingly aggressive neighbor, the lessons from Ukraine provide a crucial guide to navigating the uncertain and dangerous waters ahead.

 

Credit: CEPA 2024-09-02

 

 

 

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