Polling errors

[maesariang]

ABC last poll in 2020 was +12 Biden. Result was +4.5 Biden. So wrong by 7.5 points.

 

New poll out now. Harris +4. Does that mean Trump is up by 3.5? 

 

The margin of error is supposed to be only 2 points 

 

These are the debate hosts 

[impulse]

I wonder if the polling companies use the same criteria for selecting their participants that this "non-partisan" get-out-the-vote company uses to select who sees their ads on Faceplant?

 

The Voter Participation Center (VPC), which describes itself as a “non-partisan organization,” posted advertisements on Facebook encouraging voter turnout in swing states, but instructed Facebook to exclude showing advertisements to people interested in things associated with Republican voters, such as NASCAR, military novelist Tom Clancy, the PGA Tour and Duck Dynasty, according to the ad data. 

 

Not hard to imagine Harris running away with the polls if they exclude NASCAR, Tom Clancy, and golf fans from their polling.

 

Pretty insidious how they do that, eh?

 

https://dailycaller.com/2024/09/02/this-non-partisan-voter-registration-group-will-help-you-vote-unless-youre-conservative/

 

[bamnutsak]

I think the margin of error is usually plus or minus, so the actual spread would be 2x.

 

Some trends which contribute to unreliability include finding a decent sample, who is honest.

 

Trump voters are often cagey about admitting they'll vote for Trump, maybe out of embarrassment?

 

Then you have the electoral college bias.

 

Harris will have to win by 3 ~ 5 points to get the win.

 

 

[cjinchiangrai]

Seeding the internet for the next round of the big lie.

[maesariang]

1 hour ago, bamnutsak said:

I think the margin of error is usually plus or minus, so the actual spread would be 2x.

 

Some trends which contribute to unreliability include finding a decent sample, who is honest.

 

Trump voters are often cagey about admitting they'll vote for Trump, maybe out of embarrassment?

 

Then you have the electoral college bias.

 

Harris will have to win by 3 ~ 5 points to get the win.

 

 

Maybe Trump voters don't answer random calls.

[DougieMax]

8 hours ago, maesariang said:

ABC last poll in 2020 was +12 Biden. Result was +4.5 Biden. So wrong by 7.5 points.

 

New poll out now. Harris +4. Does that mean Trump is up by 3.5? 

 

The margin of error is supposed to be only 2 points 

 

These are the debate hosts 

I find it hard to believe that Harris is above 15%. The polling these days is only something to give dems cover for the cheating they will most certainly do.

 

BTW, to spare myself having to read what so many idiots are posting here, I've been beefing up my ignore list. Posts like this provide lots of opportunities to identify good candidates.

[DougieMax]

1 hour ago, bamnutsak said:

I think the margin of error is usually plus or minus, so the actual spread would be 2x.

 

Some trends which contribute to unreliability include finding a decent sample, who is honest.

 

Trump voters are often cagey about admitting they'll vote for Trump, maybe out of embarrassment?

 

Then you have the electoral college bias.

 

Harris will have to win by 3 ~ 5 points to get the win.

 

 

I don't think it is a matter of Trump supporters being embarrassed; I just think they are grossly undersampled. And it's becoing widely recognized that weird polling results like showing Harris leading, etc. are just for the purpose of giving cover for the inevitable cheating dems plan to do.

[bamnutsak]

58 minutes ago, DougieMax said:

I just think they are grossly undersampled.

 

But why would pro-Trump outlets/pollsters (like Fox) participate in the conspiracy you describe? Or are they all part of the Globalist cabal?

 

 

I think pollsters go for different target samples: likely voter, first-time voter, etc.

 

 

 

 

[maesariang]

1 hour ago, DougieMax said:

I find it hard to believe that Harris is above 15%. The polling these days is only something to give dems cover for the cheating they will most certainly do.

 

BTW, to spare myself having to read what so many idiots are posting here, I've been beefing up my ignore list. Posts like this provide lots of opportunities to identify good candidates.

The top Democrat should be 40% even if bad.

[bamnutsak]

1 hour ago, DougieMax said:

And it's becoing widely recognized that weird polling results like showing Harris leading, etc. are just for the purpose of giving cover for the inevitable cheating dems plan to do.

 

Ah, the old 3-D chess nugget, I should have known.

 

 

[DougieMax]

1 hour ago, bamnutsak said:

 

But why would pro-Trump outlets/pollsters (like Fox) participate in the conspiracy you describe? Or are they all part of the Globalist cabal?

 

 

I think pollsters go for different target samples: likely voter, first-time voter, etc.

 

 

 

 

It's easy to disregard what you say because of your knee-jerk assumption that I rely on Fox, et. al. You really should allow for the possibility that there are people who come to the conclusions you don't like purely based on facts picked up from whatever source. And notice I did not make the (perhaps) immediate assumption that you are a consumer of MSNBC, CNN, The View, NPR, ABC, CBS, NBC, New York Times, Washington Post, NPR, The Los Angeles Times or BBC. 

[DougieMax]

1 hour ago, bamnutsak said:

 

Ah, the old 3-D chess nugget, I should have known.

 

 

Consider yourself edified.

[candide]

4 hours ago, DougieMax said:

I don't think it is a matter of Trump supporters being embarrassed; I just think they are grossly undersampled. And it's becoing widely recognized that weird polling results like showing Harris leading, etc. are just for the purpose of giving cover for the inevitable cheating dems plan to do.

Complete conspiracy B.S. as usual.

 

The same polls have been showing a Trump win against Biden for months, and MAGA posters such as Ilisdean have been proudly posting each and every poll result on this forum! 😀

Edited September 3 by candide

[candide]

Meanwhile.... even the right-leaning aggregator RCP is now showing a Kamala win.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

Edited September 3 by candide

[cjinchiangrai]

I think the Dems are going to overperform by five percent. The MAGA women may bow to their husbands in public but they hate the rapist in chief too.

[bamnutsak]

8 hours ago, cjinchiangrai said:

I think the Dems are going to overperform by five percent.

 

By this you mean the popular vote, right?

 

Some say Harris might have to go to +6 points (%) to overcome the Electoral College bias.

 

Based on that RCP tally, the two single votes in Nebraska and Maine may tilt the balance. (I see they have the ME single in red, while the state's two votes are in blue.)

 

If it's 269-269 and that map sticks, Trump would win the vote in the House (one vote per state). 

 

 

 

 

[earlinclaifornia]

 

[cjinchiangrai]

3 hours ago, bamnutsak said:

 

By this you mean the popular vote, right?

 

Some say Harris might have to go to +6 points (%) to overcome the Electoral College bias.

 

Based on that RCP tally, the two single votes in Nebraska and Maine may tilt the balance. (I see they have the ME single in red, while the state's two votes are in blue.)

 

If it's 269-269 and that map sticks, Trump would win the vote in the House (one vote per state). 

 

The map is obsolete and biased to the right but I am looking for overperformance in Florida and Texas. She is currently leading in North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.

[candide]

5 hours ago, bamnutsak said:

 

By this you mean the popular vote, right?

 

Some say Harris might have to go to +6 points (%) to overcome the Electoral College bias.

 

Based on that RCP tally, the two single votes in Nebraska and Maine may tilt the balance. (I see they have the ME single in red, while the state's two votes are in blue.)

 

If it's 269-269 and that map sticks, Trump would win the vote in the House (one vote per state). 

 

 

 

 

RCP always shows higher scores for Trump than the other aggregators, so it could be considered as a pessimistic scenario for the Dems. Other aggregates are showing a larger Kamala win.

This one would be the optimistic scenario.

https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls#google_vignette

Edited September 4 by candide