Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Israel's Growing Concern

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In recent weeks, tensions have heightened as Israel grows increasingly anxious about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, learned a hard lesson about the limits of his foreign policy strategy. Despite having well-armed and well-trained proxy forces like Hezbollah, these surrogates can falter when faced with the might of a modern, determined army. The recent Israeli offensives in Gaza and Lebanon demonstrated this when many high-ranking Hezbollah members, including Hassan Nasrallah, were killed. This loss, alongside Israel's successful dismantling of Hezbollah’s capabilities, left Tehran scrambling to regain face.

 

Tehran’s response was a failed ballistic missile attack on Israel, an attempt to restore dignity after its top proxy had been severely weakened. Iran has long employed proxies like Hezbollah to carry out its agenda, using them to spread its influence and attack enemies while shielding itself from direct retaliation. However, Israel’s rapid dismantling of Hezbollah’s missile systems and crews has shown the clerical regime that proxy forces alone are insufficient for maintaining its influence in the region.

 

Moreover, Iran’s reliance on ballistic and cruise missiles as a deterrent has also come under strain. Despite its heavy investment in these conventional weapons, Israel's air defenses have proven capable of neutralizing many of these attacks. With its proxies under attack and its missile strategy losing effectiveness, Iran may be closer than ever to considering the development of a nuclear weapon as its ultimate guarantee of security and regional influence.

 

This rising threat has Israel on edge. Many in Israel fear that Iran’s missile barrages could push Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take the ultimate step of launching a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This would be a last-ditch effort to prevent Tehran from acquiring the only weapon that could allow it to maneuver freely in the Middle East.

 

While Israel’s leadership debates the severity of its response, the United States, Israel’s most crucial ally, has entered crisis-management mode. President Biden continues to seek de-escalation, although months of diplomacy have failed to yield meaningful results. Biden has expressed his opposition to an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, yet he has also insisted that Iran must never be allowed to obtain a nuclear bomb. This delicate balancing act does not easily align with calls from both political parties in the U.S. to avoid being dragged into perpetual conflicts.

 

Despite these differing views, the strong alliance between Israel and the United States may be the last remaining obstacle to Iran’s nuclear aspirations. Israel’s recent intelligence successes, including the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, a top Hamas leader, in a Revolutionary Guards compound in Tehran, have likely given Khamenei pause. He must now question whether any secret plans to assemble a nuclear bomb would leak, leading to a preemptive strike by Israel or the U.S.

 

Nevertheless, Iran may still see reasons for optimism in the post-October 7 Middle East. While Israel has dealt severe blows to its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah are likely to survive. Additionally, the current conflict has derailed the possibility of Saudi-Israeli normalization, along with a potential U.S.-Saudi defense alliance that would have been a significant threat to Tehran. The deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians have also led Saudi and Emirati royals, once vocal opponents of Iran, to adopt a more conciliatory tone toward Tehran.

 

Should Iran successfully test a nuclear weapon in the near future, the balance of power in the region would shift dramatically. It would weaken both Israel’s and America’s influence in the Middle East overnight. Historically, the U.S. has never attacked a nuclear-armed state, and Israel, widely believed to possess its own nuclear weapons, would likely face significant restrictions in engaging with a nuclear-armed Iran. The doctrine of mutually assured destruction would, in fact, limit Israel more than Iran.

 

For Ayatollah Khamenei, becoming a nuclear state would provide a new means to project power domestically and internationally. It would also neutralize the risk that another attack on Israel would lead to a conventional conflict in which Iran cannot compete. In authoritarian regimes, maintaining an image of strength is crucial, and foreign defeats can have domestic consequences. Khamenei understands this well, and a nuclear Iran could reshape not only the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East but also the internal dynamics of his theocratic rule.

 

Based on a report from NYT 2024-10-04