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New polling from The New York Times and Siena College suggests that the 2024 presidential race remains extremely close in two critical swing states. Kamala Harris has taken a slight lead in Pennsylvania, while Donald Trump maintains an advantage in Arizona, revealing a key divide between the Rust Belt and Sun Belt regions. Both states remain highly contested, and the polling numbers continue to show how tight the race will be as Election Day draws near.

 

In Arizona, Trump holds a lead with 51 percent support, compared to 46 percent for Harris. These figures are almost unchanged from a previous poll conducted in September, where Trump led Harris 50 percent to 45 percent. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, Harris leads Trump by a margin of 50 percent to 47 percent. Both polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, underscoring the narrow gap between the candidates. The Arizona poll surveyed 808 voters, while the Pennsylvania poll reached 857 voters, with both conducted via telephone between October 7 and 10.

 

The polling also indicates that neither candidate is highly favored by voters. In Pennsylvania, Harris has a favorability rating of 49 percent, with an identical 49 percent viewing her unfavorably. Trump, on the other hand, is viewed unfavorably by 54 percent of Pennsylvanians, with only 45 percent viewing him favorably. The favorability ratings are reversed in Arizona, where voters are evenly split on Trump at 49 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable. Harris fares slightly worse in Arizona, with 46 percent viewing her favorably and 51 percent viewing her unfavorably.

 

Despite Trump's lead in Arizona, there is evidence that voters are not aligning strictly along party lines. Forty-eight percent of respondents in the state indicated they would vote for Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Ruben Gallego, compared to 41 percent for Republican Kari Lake. In Pennsylvania’s Senate race, the dynamic is similar to the presidential contest, with Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leading Republican Dave McCormick by 48 percent to 44 percent, mirroring Harris' slight edge over Trump.

 

The economy remains the most significant issue for voters in both states, with more respondents trusting Trump over Harris to manage economic challenges. However, Pennsylvania voters are also concerned about abortion rights, with Harris holding a nearly 20-point lead over Trump in terms of who voters trust more on that issue. This reflects the importance of social issues in the Pennsylvania electorate, where debates over abortion have become a major factor.

 

Pennsylvania, with its large number of electoral votes, remains one of the most critical battlegrounds in the race. Both campaigns have made it a priority, and the current polling suggests that the state is likely to remain a hotly contested region as the election approaches. Last month, Harris led Trump in a similar New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll, with a margin of 50 percent to 46 percent, which closely mirrors the latest results. As both candidates vie for support, the race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory.

 

Based on a report from Politico 2024-10-14