Arakan Army Gains Force Bangladesh, India to Rethink Myanmar Ties

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The dramatic rise of Myanmar’s Arakan Army (AA) is redrawing the political map of the region, forcing neighbouring India and Bangladesh to engage directly with the ethnic armed group now in control of nearly all of Rakhine State.

Since launching a sweeping offensive in November 2023, the AA has seized 14 of Rakhine’s 17 townships, including strategic areas along the borders with India and Bangladesh. With the Myanmar junta pushed out of vast stretches of the west, both neighbours are now quietly building channels of communication with the AA—once considered a rebel group on the fringes.

Bangladesh is in direct contact, while India has opened dialogue via its Mizoram state. An AA office has reportedly been established in Mizoram, and cross-border trade is increasing despite tensions.

Dhaka, acknowledging the junta’s loss of border control, insists it must engage with whoever holds power on the ground. "The central government has no authority there," a Bangladeshi foreign adviser said. "In our own interest, we must maintain some form of communication."

The shift comes as the AA offers a measure of stability in areas long plagued by conflict. Trade has resumed, medicine and goods are flowing again, and the AA’s handling of Rohingya in its territory has drawn cautious approval. The UN and Bangladeshi officials have floated proposals for safe zones and even limited refugee repatriation under AA oversight.

Yet challenges remain acute. Muslim armed groups such as ARSA and the RSO—aligned with the junta—continue to stir violence along the border. They are accused of exploiting Rohingya refugees and fuelling drug trade in the camps. Bangladesh’s security forces have begun cracking down, arresting key figures.

As diplomacy shifts, so too do the risks. Bangladesh’s army remains wary of foreign involvement, recently blocking a UN-backed aid corridor, while the region’s fragile peace hinges on elections and internal power balances.

For now, the AA’s rise has not only transformed the battlefield but also regional diplomacy—placing a once-marginal ethnic army at the centre of a complex and evolving crisis.

-2025-06-07