researchgate

 

Myanmar’s western edge is on the brink of a seismic shift as the Arakan Army (AA) tightens its grip on Rakhine State, threatening to redraw the map of the country’s civil war and reshape regional power dynamics. With 14 of 17 townships under its control, the AA is now poised to seize Sittwe, the state capital, and Kyaukphyu, a strategic port central to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

 

Flush from battlefield victories, the AA has declared its intent to capture the remaining territory, including infrastructure linked to Indian and Chinese interests. Analysts warn that a monsoon offensive could be imminent, with cloudy skies offering cover from junta air strikes.

 

But the AA’s rise comes amid a worsening humanitarian crisis. The military’s blockade has left over two million people at risk of starvation, according to UN estimates. In Sittwe, now cut off by land, residents report soaring prices, rampant crime, and a breakdown of civil order. “They’re like gangsters breaking into homes in broad daylight,” one evacuee said.

 

The AA’s campaign for self-determination has also drawn scrutiny over alleged abuses against Rohingya civilians. Accusations of massacres and forced conscription have surfaced, though the group denies wrongdoing and claims Muslim residents under its control are better off than before. Both the AA and the junta have drafted thousands into their ranks, fuelling fears of prolonged conflict.

 

Kyaukphyu, the coastal hub linking Myanmar to China’s Yunnan province via oil and gas pipelines, is now a focal point. Defence analyst Anthony Davis believes the AA has a “significant chance” of capturing the port, calling it potentially one of the war’s most consequential campaigns. China, while backing Myanmar’s military rulers, appears prepared to tolerate AA control—so long as its assets remain secure.

 

India, too, is watching closely. Its Kaladan transport corridor runs through AA-held territory, and control of key ports could allow the AA to tax Indian trade, boosting its war chest and weakening the junta’s regional ties.

 

As Myanmar’s military prepares for widely criticised elections in December, the AA’s momentum raises the prospect of a new power centre emerging in Rakhine—one with the leverage to challenge both the regime and its foreign backers.

 

 

-2025-08-25

Congratulations Arakan Army - keep pushing to oust the genocidal Tatmadaw and its obnoxious Generals.

One can only hope that the Burmese resistance can unite, form an alliance and oust the murdering Generals and their troops. Put them on trial and sentence them to death given how many deaths they are responsible for and the misery and hardships that the people have had to endure under the illegally instated military!! 

China is a major part of the problem and only in Myanmar for what it can gain at the expense and misery of the Burmese people. Never forget that Xi and his cronies are there to rape & pillage and have little to no regard for the citizens, landscape or the environment!  They are the largest supplier of arms to the Junta because its suits their narrative to have instability with the Junta dependant on them so they can take whatever they want. I believe Putin wants to follow Xi's lead!!

It is the Junta that has persecuted the Rohingya from the start, however, are now trying to use them against the AA.  Remember that the Rohingya have been coming across the border from Bangladesh for many years so its ironic that many are now back there, sadly in refugee camps!!