China and India Watch as Arakan Army Eyes Key Myanmar Ports

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Myanmar’s western edge is on the brink of a seismic shift as the Arakan Army (AA) tightens its grip on Rakhine State, threatening to redraw the map of the country’s civil war and reshape regional power dynamics. With 14 of 17 townships under its control, the AA is now poised to seize Sittwe, the state capital, and Kyaukphyu, a strategic port central to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

 

Flush from battlefield victories, the AA has declared its intent to capture the remaining territory, including infrastructure linked to Indian and Chinese interests. Analysts warn that a monsoon offensive could be imminent, with cloudy skies offering cover from junta air strikes.

 

But the AA’s rise comes amid a worsening humanitarian crisis. The military’s blockade has left over two million people at risk of starvation, according to UN estimates. In Sittwe, now cut off by land, residents report soaring prices, rampant crime, and a breakdown of civil order. “They’re like gangsters breaking into homes in broad daylight,” one evacuee said.

 

The AA’s campaign for self-determination has also drawn scrutiny over alleged abuses against Rohingya civilians. Accusations of massacres and forced conscription have surfaced, though the group denies wrongdoing and claims Muslim residents under its control are better off than before. Both the AA and the junta have drafted thousands into their ranks, fuelling fears of prolonged conflict.

 

Kyaukphyu, the coastal hub linking Myanmar to China’s Yunnan province via oil and gas pipelines, is now a focal point. Defence analyst Anthony Davis believes the AA has a “significant chance” of capturing the port, calling it potentially one of the war’s most consequential campaigns. China, while backing Myanmar’s military rulers, appears prepared to tolerate AA control—so long as its assets remain secure.

 

India, too, is watching closely. Its Kaladan transport corridor runs through AA-held territory, and control of key ports could allow the AA to tax Indian trade, boosting its war chest and weakening the junta’s regional ties.

 

As Myanmar’s military prepares for widely criticised elections in December, the AA’s momentum raises the prospect of a new power centre emerging in Rakhine—one with the leverage to challenge both the regime and its foreign backers.

 

 

-2025-08-25