Gold

[sonicdragon]

Your arguments seem to go against the idea of holding gold at all, so I wonder why you think a balanced portfolio should have 5% of gold in it, rather than none ? ? And why around 5% ? Why not 4% or 6% ? 2% or 12% ? And why stop with gold ? What about platinum and silver ?

good questions! looking forward for answers and have a question for "Dragon". what percentage of your assets are your gold holdings?

Currently (last reval a few weeks ago) 2.8% in a bullion fund (3.1% that would be the gold portion since the fund is invested in other precious metals as well), and 0.6% in some gold mining stocks.

[Naam]

Your arguments seem to go against the idea of holding gold at all, so I wonder why you think a balanced portfolio should have 5% of gold in it, rather than none ? ? And why around 5% ? Why not 4% or 6% ? 2% or 12% ? And why stop with gold ? What about platinum and silver ?

good questions! looking forward for answers and have a question for "Dragon". what percentage of your assets are your gold holdings?

Currently (last reval a few weeks ago) 2.8% in a bullion fund (3.1% that would be the gold portion since the fund is invested in other precious metals as well), and 0.6% in some gold mining stocks.

would that really help in a worldwide catastrophic financial environment? i have strong doubts.

[Naam]

i just looked up in my spreadsheet "other assets" and based on old insurance values roughly calculated that the jewellery of my wife has a metal value (stones not counted) of approximately 3% of our total assets ex immobile property. i deem that much too high but i don't have power of attorney to raid her locker in the bank. on top of that i'm bloody scared of her.

[sonicdragon]

Your arguments seem to go against the idea of holding gold at all, so I wonder why you think a balanced portfolio should have 5% of gold in it, rather than none ? ? And why around 5% ? Why not 4% or 6% ? 2% or 12% ? And why stop with gold ? What about platinum and silver ?

good questions! looking forward for answers and have a question for "Dragon". what percentage of your assets are your gold holdings?

Currently (last reval a few weeks ago) 2.8% in a bullion fund (3.1% that would be the gold portion since the fund is invested in other precious metals as well), and 0.6% in some gold mining stocks.

would that really help in a worldwide catastrophic financial environment? i have strong doubts.

Yes I believe it would. It isn't my only disaster scenario hedge. You would have to get a better view of my overall portfolio to make that judgement, but I have several other precious metals, some soft commodities that will benefit in a disaster scenario, just less than 10% in equities, and quite a lot in cash. I think I'm quite well positioned for a catastrophe (which is not my base case).

[sonicdragon]

i just looked up in my spreadsheet "other assets" and based on old insurance values roughly calculated that the jewellery of my wife has a metal value (stones not counted) of approximately 3% of our total assets ex immobile property. i deem that much too high but i don't have power of attorney to raid her locker in the bank. on top of that i'm bloody scared of her.

Haha ! I'm in a similar position, but I wasn't counting her jewelry as part of my assets.

[Naam]

You would have to get a better view of my overall portfolio to make that judgement, but I have several other precious metals, some soft commodities that will benefit in a disaster scenario, just less than 10% in equities, and quite a lot in cash.

what do you think of mine (updated today)?

10.00% CEVA GROUP - 01.12.2016 XS0277867825

10.7500% HD CAPITAL - 07.12.2011 -PROFILO TEL- XS0277592977

12.0000% BULGARIA STEEL FIN - 04.05.2013 XS0251302609

6.2500% TURANALEM FINANCE-EURO 27.09.2011 XS0269267000

7.0000% VENEZUELA 16.03.2015 XS0214851874

7.8750% ALB FINANCE BV - 01.02.2012 XS0284859054

7.8750% INEOS GROUP 15.02.2016 XS0242945367

8.2500% NORDIC TELEPHONE - 01.05.2016 XS0252438899

8.3000% SIBACADEMFINANCE - 16.11.2011 XS0274663383

8.3750% GENERAL MOTORS 05.07.2033 XS0171943649

8.3750% PETROL - 26.10.2011 XS0271812447

8.5000% PROV.BUENOS AIRES - 15.04.2017 XS0234088994

9.0000% IIB LUX / JSC INTL- 06.07.10 XS0309114311

9.5000% TROY CAPITAL - 10.08.2011 XS0263392358

9.8750% WATERFORD WEDGWOOD 01.12.2010 XS0181560672

10.0000% GP INVESTMENTS - PERPETUAL XS0282340230

10.0000% XINHUA FINANCE - 21.11.2011 XS0275685641

10.2500% BERTIN - 05.10.2016 USP1655PAB96

10.2500% GT 2005 BONDS - 21.07.2010 XS0224891944

10.5000% TRISTAN OIL- 01.01.2012 USG90748AA57

11.0000% CELL C - 01.07.2015 XS0224153360

11.0000% DAVOMAS INTL FIN - 09.05.2011 USY2029LAA71

11.5000% INDUSTRIAS UNIDAS - 15.11.2016 USP56064BV26

12.2500% GITI TIRE PTE - 26.01.2012 XS0282566800

12.5000% RANHILL LTD - 26.10.2011 USY7190AAA35

6.0000% BCO GALICIA - 01.01.19 USP09669BR53

6.3750% FORD MOTOR - 01.02.2029 US345370BZ25

8.5000% TITAN PETROCHEM - 18.03.2012 USG8890GAA16

8.6250% CENTERCREDIT INT - 30.01.2014 XS0282585859

8.6250% RUSSIA STANDART BK- 05.05.2011 XS0253166655

8.6250% SRE GROUP- 24.4.13 XS0251314364

8.6250% TRADE AND DEVELOPME - 22.01.2010 XS0282857449

8.7000% UNIBANCO- PERPETUAL USG9191BFV56

8.7500% GOL FIN - PERPETUAL USG3980PAA33

8.7500% MEI EURO FINANCE 22.05.2010 XS0168954823

8.8750% CIE - NOTES 14.06.2015 USP3142LAN93

9.1250% SEYCHELLES - 03.10.2011 XS0269874664

9.3750% BCO CRUZEIRO SUL - 26.09.2011 XS0269109608

9.3750% GLOBO COMMUNIC PAR - PERPETUAL XS0251389457

9.3750% KAZAKHGOLD GROUP - 06.11.2013 SENIOR XS0273371632

9.3750% NURFINANCE BV - 17.10.2011 XS0269698246

9.5000% CSN ISLANDS X - PERPETUAL USG25847AA53

9.5000% MINERVA OVERSEAS - 01.02.2017 USG61473AA59

9.6250% ODEBRECHT OVERSEAS - PERPETUAL XS0229458665

9.7500% BRASKEM - PERPETUAL USP18533AD48

9.8750% NATL STEEL - PERPETUAL XS0242966017

9.7500% BIC BANCO - EMTN 03.03.2016 XS0246205495

9.5000% DURANGO - NOTES 31.12.2012 US21986MAK18

10.0000% KRED WIEDERAUFBAU- 16.7.09 XS0309291010

10.0000% ECUADOR - 15.08.2030 XS0115743519

18.0000% AUSTRIA - 2009 XS0260875033

9.0000% DURA-DEFAULT-SH*T - 01.05.2009 XS0101338829

CASH 43.54% (90% €ur)

[sonicdragon]

I think you like ermerging market bonds

You must have taken a bit of a beating in the last month, but even so I expect you've done very well if you've held these for a few years.

I'd be curious to know what the yield to maturity or swap spread is on some of those at current prices. I would bet that more than a few will be quite attractive.

[Naam]

I think you like ermerging market bonds

You must have taken a bit of a beating in the last month, but even so I expect you've done very well if you've held these for a few years.

I'd be curious to know what the yield to maturity or swap spread is on some of those at current prices. I would bet that more than a few will be quite attractive.

my middle name since nearly three decades is "Emerging"

i took a beating but it was due to come sooner or later, things were too good to be true for several years. however i am still up YTD 4.8% or annualised 6.9%.

by the way, the €UR denominated bonds took the biggest beating. european investors are sissies. exceptions (like me) prove the rule.

average YTM:

€UR = 9.91%

USD = 9.73%

average yield (cash included) a meagre 7.68% but i don't complain. my target end of 2012 is >70% cash (look at the maturities!), twiddle my tumbs (GOD willing) and play around a bit with the rest of the dough. perhaps i will take a course in currency trading with "Lannarebirth" as my lecturer

[lannarebirth]

I think you like ermerging market bonds

You must have taken a bit of a beating in the last month, but even so I expect you've done very well if you've held these for a few years.

I'd be curious to know what the yield to maturity or swap spread is on some of those at current prices. I would bet that more than a few will be quite attractive.

my middle name since nearly three decades is "Emerging"

i took a beating but it was due to come sooner or later, things were too good to be true for several years. however i am still up YTD 4.8% or annualised 6.9%.

by the way, the €UR denominated bonds took the biggest beating. european investors are sissies. exceptions (like me) prove the rule.

average YTM:

€UR = 9.91%

USD = 9.73%

average yield (cash included) a meagre 7.68% but i don't complain. my target end of 2012 is >70% cash (look at the maturities!), twiddle my tumbs (GOD willing) and play around a bit with the rest of the dough. perhaps i will take a course in currency trading with "Lannarebirth" as my lecturer

Hi Dr. Naam,

I'm not a currency trader. Don't know the first thing about it. I'm a futures trader.

[sonicdragon]

I think you like ermerging market bonds

You must have taken a bit of a beating in the last month, but even so I expect you've done very well if you've held these for a few years.

I'd be curious to know what the yield to maturity or swap spread is on some of those at current prices. I would bet that more than a few will be quite attractive.

my middle name since nearly three decades is "Emerging"

i took a beating but it was due to come sooner or later, things were too good to be true for several years. however i am still up YTD 4.8% or annualised 6.9%.

by the way, the €UR denominated bonds took the biggest beating. european investors are sissies. exceptions (like me) prove the rule.

average YTM:

€UR = 9.91%

USD = 9.73%

average yield (cash included) a meagre 7.68% but i don't complain. my target end of 2012 is >70% cash (look at the maturities!), twiddle my tumbs (GOD willing) and play around a bit with the rest of the dough. perhaps i will take a course in currency trading with "Lannarebirth" as my lecturer

10% in euro is quite nice. I wouldn't mind some of that actually I've been getting a meagre 7-8% in sterling on my small bond holdings (but they tend to be much higher rated). I don't have any US$ bonds.

[LaoPo]

european investors are sissies.

Don't call me sissy, Doc !

LaoPo

[Edonista]

It Is OK Dr. Naaam please tell all of us with what you got a bigger yield, na. Or is that your big litlle secret?

Alex, since nearly three decades i am an investor in a rather small and specific niche of the markets and that is emerging market bonds. until a couple of years ago i held only sovereign debtors, then i switched to corporates. believe me that the results beat investing in gold hands down although this year i am looking (more or less) at red figures only. but something similar happened to gold. an ounce was 669 dollars on 2nd of january and today's price is 657 dollars. so... where's the beef?

the problem with gold is that there is no cash coupon paid twice a year. to make a living you need the price to go up continously, sell a part for cash which the wife needs to buy food and drinks in Tesco and Carrefour and to pay for your other daily expenses (not to forget the mia noi).

An ounce of Gold would get you a good suit 200 years ago same applies today. Where as 200 years ago $1 would get you a good suiit and today $700. So even a simple startrek freak should beable to see that gold keeps its value where as the dollar loses and loses and will be worthless in time

PS when ever there is a crisis stocks and currencys take a dive - gold rockets (on earth)

In 1987 there was the worst stock crash of all times, but gold did not skyrocket at all.

Besides what do you mean for "currencies take a dive" ? exchange rates are relative, one currency can take a dive against another one.If you mean high inflation, in 1980 it was two digits, now it is about 3% worldwide.

[VegasVic]

Your arguments seem to go against the idea of holding gold at all, so I wonder why you think a balanced portfolio should have 5% of gold in it, rather than none ? ? And why around 5% ? Why not 4% or 6% ? 2% or 12% ? And why stop with gold ? What about platinum and silver ?

good questions! looking forward for answers and have a question for "Dragon". what percentage of your assets are your gold holdings?

Yes indeed a very good question! The number could be 2%, gold is merely a small hedge against a world catastrophe. Someone who is betting on a world catastrophe (like Bingoboingo and others here) likely have 50% of their portfolio in gold, the AVERAGE investor should have somewhere between 2% and 5% in some sort of gold vehicle in a WELL balanced portfolio, personally I don't think a world catastrophe is inevitable and I have my home paid off and a very comfortable flow of income, so I have 0% of my portfolio in gold currently. Now with that said I will admit that 3-4 years ago I did own NEM and ABX for a while and even though I sold out long before gold shot to $728/ounce in May of 2006, I still booked some very handsome profits. I also have 37- $20 U.S. gold coins in my coin collection most of which I bought as a young man (at about $60 each), but I don't look at them or my Silver Dollar collection as an investment, they are a hobby. Anyone who is currently looking at gold as an investment, needs to ask themselves just what is the risk-reward ratio. I look at the current situation and see very little upside for gold at the current trading levels for the many reasons that I have deliniated in my prior posts and quite a bit of downside potential, thats just my personal view after doing my due dilligence. Many of our doomsdayers out there think that gold will go to $1000/ounce or higher (just like they said back in May 2006) based on their hunch that the world is heading into a depression and that fiat currencies will become worthless. Its your personal perrogative as to where you invest your money, up to 5% of a portfolio I would consider as a hedge, anything over that would be an investment and gold has historicaly been a very bad investment, especially given the price it is currently trading at. I think that should pretty much answer the question

[Firefan]

10% metals/commodities/mining companies seems to me as a good diversification tool in a broad portfolio. Personally I hold 10% metals/mining stocks (fund: VGPMX) and 10% commodities futures (ETF: DJP). Cheers!

[Naam]

european investors are sissies.

Don't call me sissy, Doc !

LaoPo

it's quite an interesting fact that i mentioned LaoPo, at least as far as the asset class i am investing is concerned. several years ago the attitude of european investors in crisis times was completely different. when bonds, denominated in USD, fell 10% within a few trading days those with the same debtors but denominated in €UR or pre-€UR currencies remained stable. we used to joke "the dentists are too busy drilling and filling and have no time to check on their investments".

now the tide has changed. especially after the defaults of the sovereign debtors Ecuador and Argentina. "dentists" are checking their holdings more often and are prepared to issue a sell order in no time. my mix of HY-bonds proves my claim crystal clear. €UR denominated bonds show much bigger book losses than USD denominated ones. the latter recovered half of their losses, €UR did not. hardly anybody seems to be willing to take a chance buying on dips.

[LaoPo]

european investors are sissies.

Don't call me sissy, Doc !

LaoPo

it's quite an interesting fact that i mentioned LaoPo, at least as far as the asset class i am investing is concerned. several years ago the attitude of european investors in crisis times was completely different. when bonds, denominated in USD, fell 10% within a few trading days those with the same debtors but denominated in €UR or pre-€UR currencies remained stable. we used to joke "the dentists are too busy drilling and filling and have no time to check on their investments".

now the tide has changed. especially after the defaults of the sovereign debtors Ecuador and Argentina. "dentists" are checking their holdings more often and are prepared to issue a sell order in no time. my mix of HY-bonds proves my claim crystal clear. €UR denominated bonds show much bigger book losses than USD denominated ones. the latter recovered half of their losses, €UR did not. hardly anybody seems to be willing to take a chance buying on dips.

I read that you're mainly in (HY) bonds, right ? That's considered 'old fashioned' but safe and secure, and NOTHING wrong with that.

However times have changed and there's a big difference as well -at the moment- between US Bonds and EU Bonds, whether company bonds or government bonds, also due to the difference in %'s in the US and EU and the emerging markets, you've Bonds in (if I read well).

In your own private situation Bonds are probably your best and safest bet; also comforting for a good night's sleep.

Personally, I never liked Bonds since there is little 'action' and a dull investment (IMHO) and I like action. But of course I can't judge for others, and...I'm sure you're doing -more than- fine.

But, this topic is about GOLD (I'm not into Gold...-yet-) but if I would I'd prefer to step into Gold & silver mining. But, the time isn't there yet...I think, and, maybe it won't come at all.

Anyway, wish you good investing.

LaoPo

[Naam]

Personally, I never liked Bonds since there is little 'action' and a dull investment (IMHO) and I like action.

LaoPo

1998 till 2003 in/out trading in sovereign bonds yielded quite often 20% (twenty percent) profit within a few trading days. i wouldn't call that boring

as far as the last three years are concerned i admit that except for a couple of weeks each year holding bonds was quite boring. but boring times have their advantages. instead of looking at several screens 8-10 hours a day one finds time again to read a book and/or going more often after the old lady

[Firefan]

I also hold EM debt (PLMIX - unhedged) and developed non-US bonds (PFUIX-unhedged) - together with some US TIPs - nobody says we have to hold ONLY equities/gold/EM debt or whatever! Diversification across non-correlated asset classes is the one "free" lunch in investing through re-balancing.

Cheers!

[lannarebirth]

10% metals/commodities/mining companies seems to me as a good diversification tool in a broad portfolio. Personally I hold 10% metals/mining stocks (fund: VGPMX) and 10% commodities futures (ETF: DJP). Cheers!

Are these positions you foresee holding indefinitely? If not, what would be your cue to get out? I hold Gold futures worth the equivalent value of my $USD cash. It's up like 7% since I bought it 10 days ago, and I'm already tempted to unload it.

[LaoPo]

Personally, I never liked Bonds since there is little 'action' and a dull investment (IMHO) and I like action.

LaoPo

1998 till 2003 in/out trading in sovereign bonds yielded quite often 20% (twenty percent) profit within a few trading days. i wouldn't call that boring

as far as the last three years are concerned i admit that except for a couple of weeks each year holding bonds was quite boring. but boring times have their advantages. instead of looking at several screens 8-10 hours a day one finds time again to read a book and/or going more often after the old lady

1. my lady is not that old, and

2. that's quite exhausting too

LaoPo

[joeuk1]

Gold trading @ 712

JB

[Carmine6]

10% metals/commodities/mining companies seems to me as a good diversification tool in a broad portfolio. Personally I hold 10% metals/mining stocks (fund: VGPMX) and 10% commodities futures (ETF: DJP). Cheers!

Are these positions you foresee holding indefinitely? If not, what would be your cue to get out? I hold Gold futures worth the equivalent value of my $USD cash. It's up like 7% since I bought it 10 days ago, and I'm already tempted to unload it.

Do gold futures settle in cash or with physical delivery? Maybe you can hold them, take delivery and roll around in gold bars.

[lannarebirth]

10% metals/commodities/mining companies seems to me as a good diversification tool in a broad portfolio. Personally I hold 10% metals/mining stocks (fund: VGPMX) and 10% commodities futures (ETF: DJP). Cheers!

Are these positions you foresee holding indefinitely? If not, what would be your cue to get out? I hold Gold futures worth the equivalent value of my $USD cash. It's up like 7% since I bought it 10 days ago, and I'm already tempted to unload it.

Do gold futures settle in cash or with physical delivery? Maybe you can hold them, take delivery and roll around in gold bars.

I don't have any particular interest in Gold, but for awhile now, it's been the other side of the $USD trade. I was just looking to hedge risk for my $USD cash holdings.

Yes, I believe you can accept physical delivery, if you make prior arrangements. Some expense is involved and I don't know the details. Settlement at expiry (I have the Oct contracts) is in cash. I doubt very much I will be holding it then. If I am, I will have rolled out to another contract as late October nears.

[Carmine6]

10% metals/commodities/mining companies seems to me as a good diversification tool in a broad portfolio. Personally I hold 10% metals/mining stocks (fund: VGPMX) and 10% commodities futures (ETF: DJP). Cheers!

Are these positions you foresee holding indefinitely? If not, what would be your cue to get out? I hold Gold futures worth the equivalent value of my $USD cash. It's up like 7% since I bought it 10 days ago, and I'm already tempted to unload it.

Do gold futures settle in cash or with physical delivery? Maybe you can hold them, take delivery and roll around in gold bars.

I don't have any particular interest in Gold, but for awhile now, it's been the other side of the $USD trade. I was just looking to hedge risk for my $USD cash holdings.

Yes, I believe you can accept physical delivery, if you make prior arrangements. Some expense is involved and I don't know the details. Settlement at expiry (I have the Oct contracts) is in cash. I doubt very much I will be holding it then. If I am, I will have rolled out to another contract as late October nears.

I was joking. I didn't even realize that physical delivery was an option for gold futures. Now that I've looked it up, light sweet crude on Nymex is a physical settlement which also suprises me. Learn something new every day.

I think futures are the way to play gold. Even people who caught the recent $650 dip in August are up only single digits with physical gold. That's a lot less exciting than I thought for such a big move. Even a run to $800 would be only 12.6% from here.

[teacup]

I just did some technical reading on the gold chart.

For now gold still has some leg to go, but don't know for how long. Unless I see some sort of the reversal pattern, otherwise in the near term we should expect to see it goes higher than the current value.

[Firefan]

Both the mining stocks and the commodities futures ETF (actually; ETN) is part of my base portfolio. I.e. the only "trading" is when I re-balance.

I also have a small % in "gambling" account and that is currently in a China ETF - but have previously been in anything you can think of Incl. gold/commodities. It has done me great this year, but to be honest just a big chunk of luck as I am just trying to ride the trends and establish moving stop losses to log in gains. WHen I then get stopped out I again look for what assets seem to be trending upwards.

Japaneese Yen looks interesting in that respect currently, but so does gold/metal/commodities.

Cheers!

10% metals/commodities/mining companies seems to me as a good diversification tool in a broad portfolio. Personally I hold 10% metals/mining stocks (fund: VGPMX) and 10% commodities futures (ETF: DJP). Cheers!

Are these positions you foresee holding indefinitely? If not, what would be your cue to get out? I hold Gold futures worth the equivalent value of my $USD cash. It's up like 7% since I bought it 10 days ago, and I'm already tempted to unload it.

[nokia]

Sorry, how much is 1 baht of gold since it's usually in ounces or grams?

[VegasVic]

I just did some technical reading on the gold chart.

For now gold still has some leg to go, but don't know for how long. Unless I see some sort of the reversal pattern, otherwise in the near term we should expect to see it goes higher than the current value.

I hope you are right about that. I kind of feel sorry for those poor bastards who got sucked into buying gold back in May of 2006 at $725-$730/ounce, after all they have been sitting on a losing investment for a year and a half now and it would be nice to see them finally break even, especially since their investment in gold has not only lost them money so far but it has been dead money (no interest or dividends) for 1 1/2 years now.

[lannarebirth]

10% metals/commodities/mining companies seems to me as a good diversification tool in a broad portfolio. Personally I hold 10% metals/mining stocks (fund: VGPMX) and 10% commodities futures (ETF: DJP). Cheers!

Are these positions you foresee holding indefinitely? If not, what would be your cue to get out? I hold Gold futures worth the equivalent value of my $USD cash. It's up like 7% since I bought it 10 days ago, and I'm already tempted to unload it.

Do gold futures settle in cash or with physical delivery? Maybe you can hold them, take delivery and roll around in gold bars.

I don't have any particular interest in Gold, but for awhile now, it's been the other side of the $USD trade. I was just looking to hedge risk for my $USD cash holdings.

Yes, I believe you can accept physical delivery, if you make prior arrangements. Some expense is involved and I don't know the details. Settlement at expiry (I have the Oct contracts) is in cash. I doubt very much I will be holding it then. If I am, I will have rolled out to another contract as late October nears.

I was joking. I didn't even realize that physical delivery was an option for gold futures. Now that I've looked it up, light sweet crude on Nymex is a physical settlement which also suprises me. Learn something new every day.

I think futures are the way to play gold. Even people who caught the recent $650 dip in August are up only single digits with physical gold. That's a lot less exciting than I thought for such a big move. Even a run to $800 would be only 12.6% from here.

Futures are good in a trending market, or as a hedge, or if you're in and out frequently. The Premium will erode your profits in a stagnant market. I don't like these Gold futures much, as it's a very illiquid market (the mini).

[simcity]

Sorry, how much is 1 baht of gold since it's usually in ounces or grams?

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...p;#entry1008781

from one poster :

1 baht if gold is 15.2g or 0.488oz (0.48796147672552166934189406099518 more accurately given above data)