The strategy to cripple Iran with a lightning military blow has failed to deliver the decisive collapse Washington and Israel hoped for.

As the war enters its second week, the campaign launched by Donald Trump and driven heavily by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is quietly shifting gears. The goal of rapidly breaking Iran’s leadership and forcing regime collapse has not materialised — and the allies are now pivoting toward a far more destructive strategy.

The decapitation plan that didn’t work

The opening phase of the war aimed to eliminate Iran’s top leadership and shatter the regime’s command structure.

Strikes targeted senior figures in the state and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The expectation was simple: kill enough leaders, and the Islamic Republic would implode.

But the system proved more resilient. New leaders stepped in quickly, and contingency plans appear to have been ready long before the first missile struck.

Why ‘victory’ is harder than it sounds

For Israel, anything short of total strategic defeat for Iran is seen as failure.

If the regime survives — even weakened — analysts warn it could race to develop a crude nuclear weapon as a deterrent against future attacks. Preventing that would require total intelligence and military control across Iran, including deeply buried facilities and hidden uranium stockpiles.

Even massive bombing runs, including strikes from stealth aircraft such as the Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit, may not achieve that level of access.

Plan B: fracture the state

The first pillar of the new strategy is political fragmentation.

Western planners are exploring ways to encourage unrest among minority groups, including Kurds and Baluchis, in the hope that internal pressure weakens Tehran’s grip on power. But such alliances are fragile, and many communities remain wary of trusting outside powers.

The approach carries risks: instability without collapse could simply harden the regime.

The darker option: pressure the population

The second, more controversial approach mirrors Israel’s long-standing Dahiya doctrine — overwhelming force against infrastructure and civilian areas linked to enemy power.

The tactic was first used heavily during the 2006 Lebanon War and later in operations against Hamas in Gaza.

Now similar methods appear to be shaping the air campaign against Iran, with infrastructure increasingly targeted.

A war that could shake the world economy

Escalation carries global consequences. Iran could retaliate by striking oil and gas infrastructure across Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Such attacks would threaten global energy supplies and risk a crisis reminiscent of the 1973 oil crisis.

For now, both sides claim progress. But behind the rhetoric, the war’s rapid victory has already slipped out of reach — and the next phase could be far more brutal.

The US-Israeli strategy failed to defeat Iran quickly – now they are moving to plan B

Plan C?

The increasing unpopularity of the war leads to Trump cutting and running. Nethanayu finds himself abandoned by Trump. Loyalty in adversity is not exactly the Fragrant Leader's foremost quality, and if it serves him (Trump) Nethanayu could find himself under the Tel Aviv to Haiffa bus quicker than you can say "Bibi"!

There is a General Election in Israel at the end of October. The Israeli electorate are a fairly volatile bunch, and Nethanayu's platform is that of a wartime leader.

Food for thought!