Early hopes that war might shake Iran’s ruling system are fading fast as the conflict grinds into its fourth week, leaving civilians facing mounting destruction and deepening uncertainty.

When strikes by the United States and Israel began, some Iranians believed the pressure could weaken the Islamic Republic and open the door to political change. But with the government still firmly in control and cities absorbing repeated attacks, that fragile optimism is giving way to fear and exhaustion.

Early Calls for Uprising Meet Harsh Reality

At the outset of the campaign, Donald Trump openly urged Iranians to rise up against their leaders, telling citizens they might not get a better opportunity to seize power “for generations”.

For many opponents of the regime led by Ali Khamenei, the strikes seemed to offer a rare opening. Iran was still reeling from recent nationwide protests brutally suppressed by security forces.

But as missiles continue to fall across the country, the focus has shifted from regime change to survival.

Civilian Strikes Shatter Expectations

Scenes of burning buildings and shattered infrastructure are rapidly changing public sentiment. In the southern city of Minab, a strike on a girls’ school became a grim symbol of the war’s human toll.

Residents in Tehran describe a city operating under constant anxiety, where air raid warnings and smoke-filled skies have become part of daily life.

The promise that war might weaken the state now competes with the immediate reality of civilian loss and insecurity.

Forced Back to Work Under the Bombs

Despite the air strikes, many government offices and workplaces remain open.

Residents say authorities are demanding employees report in person, even as the threat of attack looms. Failing to show up risks being interpreted as political dissent in a country where public absence can trigger scrutiny from security services.

For ordinary Iranians, the result is a punishing choice between personal safety and potential political consequences.

No Clear Endgame

The deeper anxiety lies in what comes next. Analysts say the United States and Israel may not even share the same objectives in the war.

According to Babak Dorbeiki, Israel appears to be pursuing the collapse of the system, while Washington’s goals remain less defined.

A War That May Change Nothing

Even after heavy bombardment and the death of senior officials, Iran’s security apparatus remains intact.

Power has now passed to Mojtaba Khamenei, widely viewed as even more hardline than his father.

For many Iranians, the fear is stark: the war may devastate the country without delivering the political change some once believed was within reach.

In Iran, hope gives way to fear as conflict rages on

There are more non loons over there than loons, start killing the loons.

The amount of hubris involved in the run up to the invasion of a 5000-year-old nation was astonishing, and the thought that Israel and the US could simply bomb the nation and then have the people rise up and thank the liberators for destroying their infrastructure was fairly difficult to fathom.

But it is certainly in keeping with the incredibly simple minded thinking of a small-minded man like Don, and a genocidal megalomaniac like Netanyahu.

Another failed Trump endeavor. Here's a wiki on the bankruptcies. Wonder why there's no wiki on his successful businesses? Maybe because there are none...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Businesses_of_Donald_Trump_that_went_bankrupt

1 hour ago, Yagoda said:

There are more non loons over there than loons, start killing the loons.

The loons are inside the White House. Start there

Trump's war is an all-round tragedy. Iran though battered, still seems able to attack it's neighbours and hold the World to ransom in the straits of Hormuz.

Claims are made that some sort of discussions are going on via Pakistan - but Iranian sources seem mute on the matter.

Talk of appeasement is IMO likely to be a cover to play for time while the Marines in transit reach a position to assault, probably Kharg Island or maybe somewhere on the Iran mainland.

It's a mad Trumpian nightmare. God help them all and us !

I have to cheat a little to bring his ratings up. Don't count the dude out. Remember when Access Hollywood had recorded audio of him stating his proclivity to grab pussy. Game over I thought and at the time hoped! Rules don't apply to him which I admit is disgusting.

This is a translation from a Le Monde article providing details of Trump's 15 point proposal. https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/03/24/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-l-aiea-appelle-a-la-retenue-maximale-apres-une-nouvelle-frappe-sans-degats-sur-la-centrale-nucleaire-de-bouchehr-en-iran_6673056_3210.html

Of the 15 points put forward, the first five concern the nuclear sector: Washington demands that Iran never attempt to acquire nuclear weapons, that Tehran surrender all its enriched fuel by a date agreed upon by the parties, and that several major nuclear facilities be dismantled.

Iran must also cease its support for its proxies and stop funding or arming groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. Limits will be placed on the number of missiles the country can possess and their range.

Furthermore, the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's hydrocarbons transit, must remain open to maritime traffic.

In return, Iran would receive a lifting of international sanctions against it and support for its civilian nuclear program. The plan makes no mention of regime change in Iran.

I don't see how the US could possibly think this would be in any way acceptable to Iran, and after reading these details, I suspect that this peace proposal is little more than a ruse to calm oil and financial markets as well as to buy time in order to position ground forces for attack.

This guy reckons all the talk is just a smokescreen for a possible land invasion this weekend.

3 hours ago, gargamon said:

Another failed Trump endeavor. Here's a wiki on the bankruptcies. Wonder why there's no wiki on his successful businesses? Maybe because there are none...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Businesses_of_Donald_Trump_that_went_bankrupt

I believe you are wrong!

There are some businesses that are doing really well,of course they are all profiting from the war.

Just look into the trump family getting defense (attack) contracts.

Follow the money,every one is being played by the trump family but of course they are supported by a

few people that are (even) worse than they are.

2 hours ago, jvs said:

I believe you are wrong!

There are some businesses that are doing really well,of course they are all profiting from the war.

Just look into the trump family getting defense (attack) contracts.

Follow the money,every one is being played by the trump family but of course they are supported by a

few people that are (even) worse than they are.

They're only getting those contracts because Trump is President. Expect lots of investigating and charges after he's done. Show some successful business from the Trump grift family when he wasn't president.

3 hours ago, jvs said:

I believe you are wrong!

There are some businesses that are doing really well,of course they are all profiting from the war.

Just look into the trump family getting defense (attack) contracts.

Follow the money,every one is being played by the trump family but of course they are supported by a

few people that are (even) worse than they are.

They'll get them for insider trading too and Trump's immunity doesn't cover this.

6 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

The amount of hubris involved in the run up to the invasion of a 5000-year-old nation was astonishing, and the thought that Israel and the US could simply bomb the nation and then have the people rise up and thank the liberators for destroying their infrastructure was fairly difficult to fathom.

But it is certainly in keeping with the incredibly simple minded thinking of a small-minded man like Don, and a genocidal megalomaniac like Netanyahu.

The history of Iran has no relevance now because the regime repudiates that history. To acknowledge and to celebrate past accomplishments would grant legitimacy to the former Shah, and to the former non Islamic empires. The Iranian diaspora, the Iranians who are not devoted to the current Islamic Republic recognize their history and are proud of it. The IRG dismiss it because it was not reflective of their current religious views. As an illustration, music and art was an integral part of Iranian culture. Not so today, as the Shiite mullahs see it as decadent and haram.

22 minutes ago, gargamon said:

They're only getting those contracts because Trump is President. Expect lots of investigating and charges after he's done. Show some successful business from the Trump grift family when he wasn't president.

I just hope he lives long enough to be sent to jail for the rest of his life!

His buddy XI deals with corruption (low level people of course) a little bit harsher.

6 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

The history of Iran has no relevance now because the regime repudiates that history. To acknowledge and to celebrate past accomplishments would grant legitimacy to the former Shah, and to the former non Islamic empires. The Iranian diaspora, the Iranians who are not devoted to the current Islamic Republic recognize their history and are proud of it. The IRG dismiss it because it was not reflective of their current religious views. As an illustration, music and art was an integral part of Iranian culture. Not so today, as the Shiite mullahs see it as decadent and haram.

Those mulllahs are some of the most ignorant men on the planet, and they know virtually nothing about anything, much less anything connected with spirituality. Everything about them is pure dogma and the opposite of faith and spirit.

Certainly the Iranian people deserve better, however regime change has never been accomplished through bombing, so we still have no idea what's going through that small mind of Trump.

The last Shah wasn't the last in some sort of long dynasty that ruled Iran. His da d founded the Pahlavi dynasty in 1925. He lead a military coup using Cossack troops. Originally he wanted establish a republic, but the British pushed him to the fake monarchy idea. So forget the idea that the revolution overthrew 5000 years of history, when in fact it got rid of a nasty autocratic father and son gig. The role of the Mullahs in Iran is much older than 1979.

Trouble first started in 1890, when a secret deal was hatched to give a monopoly of tobacco production to the British. This enraged people when it was leaked out, leading to the assasination of a Shah. The Shahs were leading an increasingly decadent lifestyle, culminating in a full on coup when the Shah started charging tariffs to pay for his holiday in Russia.. There was a Merchant class uprising , with the clerics joining them. Things went a bit turbo after that, with government cossacks committing massacres, before Shah Qajar giving in with the 1906 Constitution, moving Iran to a Constitutional Monarchy, with democracy of a sort. It lead to the Shah not really understanding the point of a Parliament, dissolving it because he didn't like it. in 1909, another coup, and the Shah's son was installed. The new Shah tried his best when he came of age, but WW1 happened, Britain and the Russians fought the Ottomans over Iran, then the Soviets. The Shah was pretty powerless with the Soviets running the hinterland. One of his colonels sent him off into exile. This colonel, Reza Khan, established the fake Pahlavi dynasty. It was the Majis, the parliament formed after 1906 that was made up of merchants and clerics, that proclaimed him Shah.

As for the nonsense the Mullahs are anti-history, and somehow, like the Sunni Taliban, are intent in destroying pre-Islamic artworks. Not true.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_Cultural_Heritage,_Tourism_and_Handicrafts

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Museum_of_Iran

https://www.synotrip.com/hmdliven/here-are-some-pre-islam-tourist-attractions-iran

Yes, there is repression of modern artists. But that's not unique to Iran. Try being an artist in Saudi Arabia. You won't get far.

The mines in Hormuz could be a bluff as bulk carriers have moved with no damage ,in any case magnetic mines would be easily blown up by drone boats

11 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

The amount of hubris involved in the run up to the invasion of a 5000-year-old nation was astonishing

Iran is not a 5000 year old nation

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Those mulllahs are some of the most ignorant men on the planet, and they know virtually nothing about anything, much less anything connected with spirituality. Everything about them is pure dogma and the opposite of faith and spirit.

Certainly the Iranian people deserve better, however regime change has never been accomplished through bombing, so we still have no idea what's going through that small mind of Trump.

I would say that's a sweeping, and probably an ignorant, statement. There are 50,000 of them. Their ignorance, or knowledge, of the world is likely comparable to most other religious leaders. I think there is such a thing as Islamic scholarship, and there are those among them extremely knowledgeable about their texts.

Iran is being confronted in their country from the air, and outside their country on the ground. Regime change in Japan was achieved without a single allied soldier stepping foot on Japan terra firma. An aerial bombing campaign achieved that. Yes, there were plenty of land battles outside of Japan, that either sapped morale, or stiffened resolve. Do you really think the Israelis are just fighting Lebanese?

"Regime change has never been accomplished through bombing" to date is probably more truthful.

To date, the land forces being mobilised are not even token. 1500 paratroopers? You probably need 1500 Paratroopers to effect an evacuation of American assets and citizens from KSA and the UAE. 6000 coalition troops, included 1000 from the 82nd oversaw the evacuation of Kabul.

5 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

The mines in Hormuz could be a bluff as bulk carriers have moved with no damage ,in any case magnetic mines would be easily blown up by drone boats

So what rank did you hold in the Navy, Pugwash. Clearing magnetic mines is never "easy", hence magnetic mines from WW2 still wash up. The drones you blithly refer to are the UK Harriers, which are still undergoing sea trials (the sensors don't work so well in the Gulf) and the US kit, which needs line of sight, no waves and no turbidity.