A FEARFUL FATE: What Iran may do with a captured US F15 pilot

Hostage fears echo darkest chapter in US history

Warnings are mounting over the fate of any American pilot captured by Iran, with chilling parallels already being drawn to the 1979 Iran Hostage Crisis.

Former UK diplomat Matthew Gould says the downing of a US jet and reports of a missing crew member risk triggering a dangerous new phase in the conflict — one where human lives become bargaining chips.

That earlier crisis saw 66 Americans held for 444 days, humiliating Washington and reshaping global perceptions of US power.

Iran will see any pilot as a bargaining chip

Gould is blunt: if captured, a US airman is unlikely to be killed — but only because he would be far more valuable alive.

Tehran, he argues, would treat the prisoner as leverage — something to trade, exploit, and weaponise diplomatically.

The regime’s priority is survival, not martyrdom. That means extracting maximum advantage from any hostage situation.

Psychological torment over outright brutality

Drawing on his own experience negotiating with Iran after British personnel were seized in 2004, Gould warns the treatment is likely to be calculated — and cruel.

Captured servicemen were blindfolded, subjected to mock executions, and forced into televised “confessions”.

A US pilot today could face similar tactics:

• Isolation and sleep deprivation

• Staged propaganda appearances

• Coerced statements for global broadcast

Physical torture is considered less likely — but not impossible, especially given today’s fractured Iranian command structure.

Rogue commanders raise the fear factor

Unlike in the past, authority inside Iran may now be more fragmented, particularly within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

With senior figures killed and pressure mounting, local commanders could act more aggressively — increasing the risk of mistreatment or escalation.

That unpredictability makes any hostage scenario far more volatile.

A propaganda prize — and a long game

One thing is certain: Iran would want to showcase any captured American as quickly as possible.

A detained pilot would likely be hidden in a secure military location, stripped of identifying details, then revealed strategically for maximum propaganda impact.

And patience is key. Iran has shown before it is willing to drag out hostage crises for months — even years — to grind down its adversaries.

Trump factor adds dangerous unpredictability

The presence of Donald Trump in the White House adds another layer of uncertainty.

Unlike the era of Jimmy Carter, Iran now faces a leader seen as far less predictable — making it harder for Tehran to calculate its next move.

That volatility cuts both ways — raising the stakes for any potential confrontation.

A crisis waiting to ignite

For now, the fate of any missing pilot remains the critical unknown.

But history — and those who’ve dealt with Tehran firsthand — suggest one thing clearly:

If a US serviceman falls into Iranian hands, the battle will shift from the battlefield to a far darker arena — one of pressure, propaganda, and psychological warfare.

SOURCE

A powerful article from the Daily Mail.

All of which pales into significance in comparison to what the pilot was dishing out in this case legal Israeli/US war of aggression.

I wonder how Trump supporters will feel if this guy gets marched before the cameras. Somehow they felt so untouchable, and yet Iran has continued to surprise. And believe me the devastation is not over, it's likely just beginning for America. And this whole thing was so unnecessary, and has distracted from all the problems the declining empire was already facing.

Time to re-watch Argo.

If he or she is captured I believe the Iranian government will use the pilot for propagnda. Parade the pilot in front of an angry crowd, pose the pilot and force the reading of a statement etc etc. That is in between beatings. I do not believe it will end like it did for Muath al-Kasasbeh. He was the Jordanian F-16 pilot that ISIS captured back in 2015. We all know how he was killed. With this many aircraft in the AO it was only a matter of time before one or more was shot down or suffered a mechanical issue. Maybe it is time to redirect the strategy of this operation and a tactical pause might be in order. Are that anymore relevant military targest left in Iran?

Iran has ratified all 4 Geneva Conventions.

There is clearly an international public relations effort going on, with Iran selectively allowing shipping through the Straits of Hormuz, and also that it is in a great position to break the historic post war consensus of the Western Powers; the dissolution of the Western Alliances (all of them) has never been closer.

The fact the Iranian government has offered a reward for the crewman (if he or she is alive) might actually be good news for the crewman; it might stop them from being beaten to death by an angry mob. If captured by Iran, I would not expect immediate harm.

The ICRC reports on how Iran treated Iraqi POWs is mixed; in some camps, POWs were treated satisfactory, in others, there was torture, coercion.

But there are bound to be now competing factions in the Iranian government. There will be a faction who will look at Pete Hegseth's press briefings, where his dismissed the idea of "stupid rules of engagement". Later on, he doubled down on that with "We will keep pressing, keep pushing, keep advancing – no quarter, no mercy for our enemy". For an ex-military man, he is a stupid man. He knows what "give no quarter" means, because at staff college it will have been drummed into him the meaning of the Geneva Conventions, because the US military does have a record of acting in a lawful manner. It means an order to commit war crimes. "Giving no Quarter" means not taking prisoners, refusing surrenders. Every NATO solidier going into war will carry a little card, relicating the essential terms of the Geneva Convention. That's his defence if captured, his reminder how to conduct themselves.

There will be Iranian factions who might say the crewman should now be investigated for possible war crimes, and suffer the consequences. A kangeroo court, but if data is obtained showing the downed F15 was targeting civilian infrastructure, I would be fearful for the fate of the crewman. The crewman's defence would be I suppose "I was following orders". I would expect the Iranians to exert maximum pressure on US politicians by linking to the words of the Secretary of War. Ultimately the crewman will become a bargaining chip used for maximal propaganda effect.

In the first Gulf War, Iraq paraded captured Allied pilots; that in itself is a warcrime. To be fair, on the Allied side, no one stopped CNN, BBC, NBC etc gleefully fiming mobs of sullen and beaten Iraqi squaddies who were just wanting to go home. The POWs by all accounts were roughly treated. The injuries seen on camera were largely due to the effects of ejection injuries.

The second video includes a rather important reference. Modern military aircraft will have accident data recorders, which I would assume the Iranians absolutely have the means to access, decode and analyse.

2 minutes ago, sqwakvfr said:

If he or she is captured I believe the Iranian government will use the pilot for propagnda. Parade the pilot in front of an angry crowd, pose the pilot and force the reading of a statement etc etc. That is in between beatings. I do not believe it will end like it did for Muath al-Kasasbeh. He was the Jordanian F-16 pilot that ISIS captured back in 2015. We all know how he was killed. With this many aircraft in the AO it was only a matter of time before one or more was shot down or suffered a mechanical issue. Maybe it is time to redirect the strategy of this operation and a tactical pause might be in order. Are that anymore relevant military targest left in Iran?

50% of missile launchers (at least) are left untouched.

No action at all has been taken against anti-shipping sites, because they are considered of a lower priority.

What do you expect ? Mercy ? The history of brutal torture by enemies is not only for our own enemies, or the ones we see as enemies, but also for our allies who have been proved no better than any other cruel nations. Torture is said to not work, but still

Abu Ghraib

Guantanamo

And the CIA Black site in Afghanistan Salt Pit

• Abu Ghraib (Iraq): detainees were subjected to beatings, hooding, forced nudity, stress positions, sleep deprivation, and humiliation

https://oig.justice.gov/sites/default/files/2019-12/06.10.08.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

• Guantánamo Bay (Cuba): detainees were exposed to prolonged shackling, isolation, sleep deprivation, stress positions, intimidation with dogs, sexual humiliation, and other coercive interrogation methods

https://oig.justice.gov/sites/default/files/2019-12/06.10.08.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

• Salt Pit, CIA black site (Afghanistan): a secret CIA prison where detainees were held in freezing conditions, chained, beaten, deprived of sleep, and otherwise tortured; detainee Gul Rahman died there

https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/sites-default-filesations-crpt-113srpt288.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

They'll be treated like a POW, just as Iraqi POWs were treated during the US sponsored Iraq-Iran War. Being a POW is no picnic. But making up stories about the dire fate of a captured pilots at the hands of the Evil Iranians in simply Agit-Prop. So-called enemy combatants imprisoned by the Bush administration and Palestinians imprisoned by the IDF have it far worse that what can be expected by the Iranian if they capture the pilots. Time will tell. It seems that the 100% obliterated Iranian air-defense is either working, or US planes are suffering from bird-strikes and maintenance failures. 👈 "Right!"

27 minutes ago, Roadsternut said:

The fact the Iranian government has offered a reward for the crewman (if he or she is alive) might actually be good news for the crewman; it might stop them from being beaten to death by an angry mob. If captured by Iran, I would not expect immediate harm.

The ICRC reports on how Iran treated Iraqi POWs is mixed; in some camps, POWs were treated satisfactory, in others, there was torture, coercion.

Exactly, regarding the reward.

Also, there were documented cases of mistreatment by both the Iraqi and Iranian POWs. But overall they were treated as POWs.

41 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

I wonder how Trump supporters will feel if this guy gets marched before the cameras. Somehow they felt so untouchable, and yet Iran has continued to surprise. And believe me the devastation is not over, it's likely just beginning for America. And this whole thing was so unnecessary, and has distracted from all the problems the declining empire was already facing.

I personally think it would be a positive as the US public has no stomach for body bags or videos of US POWs. Like during Vietnam, it could be the catalyst to create enough public discord to have the US population call for an end of Trumps war of aggression against Iran. Sucks for the POW, but they are worth more being paraded in front of a camera. At least you know they are alive.

I heard on the radio the pilot had flown from one of the US bases in the UK. That could mean awkward questions for the UK government who promised any US planes using UK bases would be on 'defensive' missions, intercepting missiles, etc.

2 hours ago, Social Media said:

Psychological torment over outright brutality

Drawing on his own experience negotiating with Iran after British personnel were seized in 2004, Gould warns the treatment is likely to be calculated — and cruel.

Captured servicemen were blindfolded, subjected to mock executions, and forced into televised “confessions”.

A US pilot today could face similar tactics:

• Isolation and sleep deprivation

• Staged propaganda appearances

• Coerced statements for global broadcast

Like this at Abu Ghraib? Like the US has a lock on morality?

If the pilot hasn't been captured yet then it's a bit early to start howling about what could happen next. He might be doing an Owen Wilson in Behind Enemy Lines.

5 minutes ago, connda said:

Like this at Abu Ghraib? Like the US has a lock on morality?

I think it was just a statement of fact, rather than any particular comdemnation.

At, on one level, Abu Ghraib was investigated, soldiers were punished.

The hunt is on for US pilots in Iran.

9 minutes ago, Purdey said:

If the pilot hasn't been captured yet then it's a bit early to start howling about what could happen next. He might be doing an Owen Wilson in Behind Enemy Lines.

This being the fictionalised portrayal of Scott O'Grady. He sued the film makers because he never swore nor disobeyed orders. He had no objection to the film showing shoot outs which never happened.

Roger Locher spent 23 days evading North Vietnamese forces after his Phantom was shot down (6 days for O'Grady). Never got a movie made about him.

Of course its good to keep talking about the downed airman. If he's alive, it keeps him alive. Of course, ordinary Iranians will have no idea if the world is talking about the service person, they just have what;s on their TV, provided the Americans haven't started targeting the TV companies.

Of course, South Western Iran in April might be very different to Serbia in June and Vietnam in May.

This is the area the Americans were searching:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/3+Balotak+cable+bridge/@31.5907332,50.2727308,590m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x3fb8b5f6098708eb:0xf7098ec38837fe38!8m2!3d31.5907287!4d50.2753057!16s%2Fg%2F11r3zd7gxl?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI2MDQwMS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

mountains, with extensive farming in the area.

34 minutes ago, connda said:

The hunt is on for US pilots in Iran.

Obviously the lads from the local village, one of whom appears to be carrying a decent looking M1 Garand, which were shipped in 1963 to replace Iranian made K98s.

1 hour ago, connda said:

Exactly, regarding the reward.

Also, there were documented cases of mistreatment by both the Iraqi and Iranian POWs. But overall they were treated as POWs.

The propaganda value will be:

1. The Prize. Parading a captured American goes down well in the region. They might be losing, but it feels like winning.

2. Use of the captured asset in a wider geopolitical context. In the Vietnam and Iraq Wars, POWs were forced to make various statements denouncing their governments. These were pretty crude attempts and fooled no one. But I suspect the Iranians are more sophisticated than that, or at least, they like to think they are. Their propaganda efforts actually have been quite superb (eg the L.O.S.E.R hiphop video), showing a nuanced understanding of Western societies. Expect the Iranians to make full use of Whitehouse footage, Administration members' social media posts, to paint a very black picture for the crewman. Iran knows there a PR war to be won, and that the American politicians are sensitive to public opinion. But they will know, from their own experience, how public opinion can group around the flag during wartime.

Didn't that pilot sign up to die for his country, or is he Gen Y? And shouldn't Iran be hit even harder?

Keep is simple and stupid to make sense.

Thought Donald was the expert.

3 hours ago, Roadsternut said:

50% of missile launchers (at least) are left untouched.

No action at all has been taken against anti-shipping sites, because they are considered of a lower priority.

Just saw a news video of two Army UH-60 Blackhawk flying in the CSAR(Combat Search And Rescue) for the downed airman. As the Blackhawks were flying some Iranian dudes step out of private vehicles and start shooting at them. At this point of the operation it has come down to guys with rifles shooting at US Helicopters. It may be time to pause and consider "what they hell our we doing??".

6 minutes ago, sqwakvfr said:

As the Blackhawks were flying some Iranian dudes step out of private vehicles and start shooting at them.

Well that's the advantage of not having an air force..you know that each and every plane or helicopter is an enemy craft so shoot at it !!!...with the 'stone age' catapults , slingshots bow and arrows that they have left after being totally defeated on the first day.....not !!!!

3 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

All of which pales into significance in comparison to what the pilot was dishing out in this case legal Israeli/US war of aggression.

Surely you comment in jest.

Just 443 hostages to go! What happens when they shoot down an Israeli plane?

Both the pilot and WSO of the F-15E Strike Eagle have been rescued. The WSO spent 2 days in the mountains of Iran. Kind of reminds of the movie "BAT 21" starring the late Gene Hackman and Danny Glover. The world can curse America all day and everyday but few nations would risk this many to rescue two downed airman. "leave no man behind". Many in Speical Operations units spend years to execute this type of mission and I guess all the training has paid off. The overall execution of Operation Epic Fury has been mixed but the rescue opeartion has been exeucted well.