A staggering $50 billion worth of oil has vanished from global markets after nearly 50 days of the Iran war — triggering the biggest energy disruption in modern history. More than 500 million barrels have been wiped out since the conflict began in late February, sending shockwaves through economies worldwide. Even with ceasefire hopes rising, the damage is far from over.

The scale of the loss is ming-boggling. Analysts say 500 million barrels is equivalent to shutting down global aviation demand for 10 weeks or halting all road travel worldwide for 11 days. It also matches nearly a month of US oil demand or more than a month for all of Europe.

The oil squeeze has hit Gulf producers hard. Output plunged by around 8 million barrels per day in March — roughly equal to the combined production of ExxonMobil and Chevron. Jet fuel exports from key Gulf states collapsed from 19.6 million barrels in February to just 4.1 million across March and April so far.

That drop alone could have powered around 20,000 round-trip flights between New York and London. Instead, airlines have been left scrambling as supply tightens and prices surge.

With crude averaging around $100 a barrel, the financial hit has been brutal. Analysts say the $50 billion loss is equivalent to about 1% of Germany’s annual GDP — or the entire economy of smaller nations like Latvia or Estonia.

Even more concerning is what comes next. Global crude inventories have already fallen by around 45 million barrels this month, while production outages have climbed to roughly 12 million barrels per day since late March.

Recovery will not be quick. Experts warn heavier oil fields in Kuwait and Iraq could take four to five months to return to normal, prolonging supply shortages into the summer.

Worse still, damage to refining capacity and major gas facilities such as Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex could take years to fully repair. The immediate crisis may ease — but the aftershocks are set to linger.

How 50 days of the Iran war led to the loss of $50 billion worth of oil

UAE now got cold feet.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-a-e-asks-u-s-for-a-wartime-financial-lifeline-3f9ea3a0

UAE CENTRAL BANK CHIEF BALAMA PROPOSED A CURRENCY SWAP ARRANGEMENT WITH BESSENT AND TREASURY, ALONGSIDE FEDERAL OFFICIALS DURING TALKS IN WASHINGTON LAST WEEK

But they have also argued that it was President Trump’s decision to attack Iran that entangled their country in a destructive conflict whose effects may not be over, some of the officials said. Emirati officials told the U.S. officials that if the U.A.E runs short of dollars, it may be forced to use Chinese yuan or other countries’ currencies for oil sales and other transactions, some of the officials said.

If the US abandons you, you abandon the US$, it seems.