Vietnam Faces Hot, Dry 2026 with Fewer Storms

Photo courtesy of VN Express

Vietnam may experience fewer storms and tropical depressions in 2026 than the usual annual average, according to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting. Although storm activity is expected to fall below normal levels, the potential for extreme weather events remains. The center forecasts fewer than 11 systems forming, of which fewer than 5 are anticipated to impact the mainland.

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Deputy Director Hoang Phuc Lam noted that, even with decreased frequency, storms could show unpredictable intensity and paths. This unpredictability might cause brief, intense rainfall, heightening risks of flash floods and landslides in mountainous and urban areas. An impending shift to El Niño conditions, with an 85-95% probability occurring between June and September 2026, is expected to bring stronger, more frequent heatwaves.

The El Niño effects may result in elevated temperatures and potentially break records. Storm systems that develop might behave erratically, despite the anticipated reduction in overall activity. Rainfall could decrease by 25-50%, leading to drought risks, especially in regions dependent on water for agriculture and daily usage.

Authorities have been cautioned to prepare for water shortages, drought, and saltwater intrusion by early 2027, comparable to past severe events. Predictions include intensified heatwaves with more hot days than in 2025. The northern and central areas are expected to experience peak heat from May to August. Throughout Vietnam, average temperatures might rise by 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius above the norm.

The rainy season is set to start in May in northern Vietnam, concluding in the central provinces by November. Floods might occur from June to October on northern rivers, while reduced river flows in central coastal areas could cause water shortages. Flash floods are a significant risk in mountainous areas, while riverside and urban regions remain vulnerable.

Flood patterns on the Mekong River should stay at average levels, but lower upstream flows in late 2026 could worsen saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta, stressing water resources.

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  Adapted by ASEAN Now · VN Express · 18 May 2026