Poland is preparing for a range of possible security threats as concerns mount over Russia's actions, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk warning that the coming months could prove "critical."

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Security concerns grow

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Tusk said the government was ready for "various" scenarios after media reports claimed Moscow could be planning an armed provocation against Poland to test Nato's resolve.

"I don't mean to scare anyone, but the coming months may truly be critical, also due to the changing nature of the war. These concerns are particularly palpable in the Baltic states," Tusk said.

Reports cite US intelligence

Polish news outlet Onet reported that sources close to President Karol Nawrocki said the United States had issued several warnings to Warsaw about an alleged Russian plot targeting Poland. The Telegraph also reported the claims.

According to the reports, possible scenarios could include missile or drone strikes against Polish infrastructure or the deployment of soldiers into the Nato member state. The reported objective would be to pressure Ukraine's Western allies into reducing or suspending military assistance as Kyiv continues to defend itself against Russia's full-scale invasion, launched in 2022.

The White House and the US State Department did not respond to requests for comment on the reports.

Asked about the allegations, Tusk said Poland could not ignore the warnings.

"Let's not be afraid, we are preparing for various situations, but we cannot ignore them. We are aware of the threats, also thanks to information from our allies," he said.

Nato summit approaches

President Karol Nawrocki is due to attend a Nato summit in Turkey next week alongside leaders from the alliance.

Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte has said the meeting will demonstrate that European members are responding to long-standing calls from US President Donald Trump to increase defence spending. Leaders are also expected to reaffirm continued military support for Ukraine.

Regional fears persist

Polish officials have repeatedly warned that Russia could seek to test Nato's defences.

In April, Tusk told the Financial Times that Russia could attack a Nato member state within months. Deputy Prime Minister Radek Sikorski later told CBS News that he could not rule out a Russian "false flag" operation within the next two years aimed at justifying an attack on a Nato country.

Neighbouring Baltic states have also expressed concern about the regional security situation. Latvian media reported in June that the country's intelligence services believed Russia was planning military provocations in the Baltic region or Poland.

Lithuania's ambassador to Nato said this week that Russia was more likely to rely on hybrid tactics, including missile or drone incursions, rather than launch a conventional military assault.

Under Nato's Article 5, an armed attack against one alliance member is considered an attack against all, obliging members to assist in the collective defence of the targeted country.

Join the discussion?

Adapted by ASEAN Now. Source 4 July 2026

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Eastern Europe needs to band together, or P will do what H did 85 years ago.

Well , this is a nato war.

Sooner or later it will go beyond just ukraine.

Don't poke the Big Bear, guys.

Curious if France will pre-emptively surrender 😏

Poland should just shut its trap and do what it does best: Make outstanding blue polka dot pottery.

18 minutes ago, howlee101 said:

Curious if France will pre-emptively surrender 😏

Gamelin lost the Battle for France not the French Army. Muscovy will face a very capable Poland before they even get near France. And Moscow and St Petersbug will be first targets.

21 minutes ago, save the frogs said:

Don't poke the Big Bear, guys.

Russia another dying Empire soon to be followed by FUSA

Putin is backed into a corner.

Desperate people do desperate things.

Can Trump be trusted to respond correctly to an Article 5 call?

I think it is too late to rely on the USA so European countries need to shoot any aerial incursions out of the sky - no warnings, no soft diplomacy.

Russia wants to test weakness, so NATO needs to show determination. Russia won't attack countries that stand up to bullies.

1 hour ago, Kiwiken said:

Russia another dying Empire soon to be followed by FUSA

I always advise my clients never to bet against America.

US markets have returned double digits this year.

I hold US dollars.

Sure, Poland and the other Eastern European countries should beef up their militaries and adopt a resolute and strong stance as a detterent, because peace through strength works.

However, I think many people are over-estimating the threat Russia now poses after such a disasterous imperial-style military adventurism operation in Ukraine... and has failed to even take 20% of Ukraine. Russia is much diminshed compared to where it stood at the start of this war.

Russia is also in no position to go off expanding this excersize in hubris any further and would get its backside handed back to it by Nato forces. The Russian economy and public are also showing increasing signs of distress over this ill-advised operation.

However, the media these days loves to scare the living manure out of as many people as they can because it generates hits and clicks. I reckon, if Putin can take the rest of the Donbas, then he would call it "mission accomplished" and wrap things up... but he can't get a way out without a tangible vicrtory he could positively spin as success. Although, that is looking increasingly difficult, unlikely, and costly as Ukraine seems to be getting the upper hand on a few areas of conflict now... for example, Kiev is tightening the screw on Crimea big time and it's working.

Coming soon, a wake up call for France, UK & Germany.

2 hours ago, save the frogs said:

Don't poke the Big Bear, guys.

And you might want to add: ... and don't let it poke you!

11 hours ago, webfact said:

Lithuania's ambassador to Nato said this week that Russia was more likely to rely on hybrid tactics, including missile or drone incursions, rather than launch a conventional military assault.

That's obvious. Russia is unable to fight on two fronts. As long as it is involved in Ukraine, it cannot do much more than that.

I hope the Russians understand that if they think the ass whipping from Ukraine is bad, they have no clue, none, what the Poles will do to them. There is an intense hatred in Poland for Russians, that goes back to WW2. They will make life miserable for Putin and his nation. The Poles are not to be messed with.

On 7/4/2026 at 10:46 AM, Woke to Sounds said:

I always advise my clients never to bet against America.

US markets have returned double digits this year.

I hold US dollars.

Betting against America now is like Betting against Rome in the early days of Augustus...very stupid idea.

On 7/4/2026 at 8:45 AM, candide said:

That's obvious. Russia is unable to fight on two fronts. As long as it is involved in Ukraine, it cannot do much more than that.

Right on. As long as the Russians are "busy" in the Ukraine, they have not the military capabilities for further military adventures.

So, when does the "Russian threat" become a problem for Europe? After a cease fire/peace agreement with the Ukraine. After 5 years the Russian army will have recovered from the Ukrainian losses. Making further military adventures possible again. NOT BEFORE.

The irony of it all: As long as the Russians are busy in the Ukraine, Europe is relatively safe. Leading to the next conclusion: The longer the Ukrainian war lasts, the better for Europe. Sadly. But this is how the world turns.

Ukraine is no longer a soft target on the front lines and as soon as Ukraine gets it's air defenses improved Putin won't even be able to keep up his terrorism bombings of civiliians.

Putin is losing and he knows it.

He does want to test NATO resolve even more.

He has already tested it in other ways and found them wimps.

Not sure about Poland but the Baltics may be at more risk of such testing.

It's simple minded to conclude that just because Russia is "busy" in Ukraine that he is no threat to Europe.

He's even more of a threat to Europe. Desperate losing Putin needs wins.

1 hour ago, swissie said:

Right on. As long as the Russians are "busy" in the Ukraine, they have not the military capabilities for further military adventures.

So, when does the "Russian threat" become a problem for Europe? After a cease fire/peace agreement with the Ukraine. After 5 years the Russian army will have recovered from the Ukrainian losses. Making further military adventures possible again. NOT BEFORE.

The irony of it all: As long as the Russians are busy in the Ukraine, Europe is relatively safe. Leading to the next conclusion: The longer the Ukrainian war lasts, the better for Europe. Sadly. But this is how the world turns.

Actually, it's not only about being busy in Ukraine. It's about Ukraine having a strong army, mastering "modern" warfare technology and tactics, and also its people being ready to die in a war (which most Western Europeans are likely not ready to do).

Even if there is a ceasefire or peace agreement, Russia will likely keep at least part of Donbass and Crimea, which Ukraine will practically never accept. As soon as Russia is 'busy' attacking a NATO country, Ukraine will attack Donbass (invoking a likely reciprocal defense agreement with NATO), this time with full NATO involvement and support.

That's a reason why one of Russia's conditions for peace is to downsize the Ukrainian army and to forbid some offensive weapons such as long range missiles. If not, Ukraine's military will hang like a Damocles sword over Russia.

As to the current Russian threat, it's written in the OP that:

"Lithuania's ambassador to Nato said this week that Russia was more likely to rely on hybrid tactics, including missile or drone incursions, rather than launch a conventional military assault."

2 hours ago, candide said:

Actually, it's not only about being busy in Ukraine. It's about Ukraine having a strong army, mastering "modern" warfare technology and tactics, and also its people being ready to die in a war (which most Western Europeans are likely not ready to do).

Even if there is a ceasefire or peace agreement, Russia will likely keep at least part of Donbass and Crimea, which Ukraine will practically never accept. As soon as Russia is 'busy' attacking a NATO country, Ukraine will attack Donbass (invoking a likely reciprocal defense agreement with NATO), this time with full NATO involvement and support.

That's a reason why one of Russia's conditions for peace is to downsize the Ukrainian army and to forbid some offensive weapons such as long range missiles. If not, Ukraine's military will hang like a Damocles sword over Russia.

As to the current Russian threat, it's written in the OP that:

"Lithuania's ambassador to Nato said this week that Russia was more likely to rely on hybrid tactics, including missile or drone incursions, rather than launch a conventional military assault."

I quote you: "Actually, it's not only about being busy in Ukraine. It's about Ukraine having a strong army, mastering "modern" warfare technology and tactics, and also its people being ready to die in a war (which most Western Europeans are likely not ready to do).

Western European yougsters are interested in "panem et circenses" and internet games. We have no "worriers" left.