Vladimir Putin appears to be preparing to shake up a battlefield that has become locked in a deadly stalemate. After a month of intense missile and drone exchanges, Russia is reorganising its military command, intensifying attacks and preparing for a potentially brutal new phase of the war.

Putin orders generals to break the Donetsk deadlock

Putin has demanded that newly appointed commanders seize the whole of Donetsk by the end of the year, describing the mission as “critical and high stakes”. Generals Andrei Ivanayev and Pyotr Bolgarev have been handed responsibility as Moscow seeks a breakthrough on the ground.

The Kremlin has also created a new Unmanned Systems Forces command under Colonel General Denis Lyamin. The move underlines how central drones have become to Russia’s strategy, from frontline assaults to deep strikes hundreds of miles inside Ukraine.

Missiles, drones and ships are closing the squeeze

Russia is hammering Ukrainian cities and infrastructure while targeting grain facilities around Odesa and Mykolaiv. Ukraine, meanwhile, has stepped up attacks on Russian oil refineries, military stores and shipping, threatening Moscow’s economic lifelines.

The result is mounting disruption across the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Crimea is also facing shortages of fuel, food and water as the conflict increasingly reaches civilian life and commercial trade.

A new ground offensive could be coming

Recent Russian assaults around Donetsk have combined tanks, drones, artillery and new anti-drone protection. Some armoured columns have come close to breaking Ukrainian lines before being stopped by waves of first-person-view drones.

Moscow appears determined to repeat the tactic before autumn mud makes large-scale mechanised operations more difficult. Ukraine says Russian losses remain enormous, but fears Putin may be willing to absorb them in pursuit of territory.

Ukraine faces a winter of mounting danger

Kyiv is also running desperately short of Patriot interceptors as Russian ballistic missile attacks intensify. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that cities are being deliberately targeted, with Zaporizhzhia suffering a fresh strike that he said killed six people and wounded 19.

The coming months could therefore bring simultaneous pressure on Ukraine’s cities, infrastructure and frontline forces. Putin’s strategy may ultimately fail again — but Kyiv faces the prospect of enduring the most punishing phase yet as winter approaches.

Putin has a sinister new plan. We should all be worried

Putin prepares major Kyiv energy strikes as winter looms

Russia is preparing a major campaign against Kyiv’s energy infrastructure, with Vladimir Putin increasingly convinced that relentless missile attacks can force Ukraine towards defeat, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Analysts warn the Kremlin sees Ukraine’s shortage of ballistic-missile interceptors as a critical opportunity.

Putin sees weakness in Ukraine’s air defences

The shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles is leaving Ukraine increasingly vulnerable to Russian ballistic weapons. The systems are among the few capabilities able to intercept the missiles, giving Moscow a potential opening as winter approaches.

ISW says Russia has shifted more of its defence production towards ballistic missiles, apparently seeking to exploit the gap. The Kremlin believes sustained strikes could damage Ukraine’s ability to withstand another winter of attacks.

Kyiv’s energy network is now in the crosshairs

According to the ISW assessment, Russia is reportedly planning a large-scale campaign against energy infrastructure in Kyiv in the coming weeks. The aim would be to disrupt efforts to strengthen the network while Ukraine struggles to replenish its missile defences.

The strategy could put civilians under renewed pressure as temperatures fall. Repeated attacks on power infrastructure threaten electricity, heating and essential services at precisely the point when Ukraine’s energy system faces its greatest seasonal demands.

Moscow’s battlefield theory is hardening

The attacks fit what ISW describes as Putin’s theory of victory: maintain relentless pressure on Ukrainian forces while striking cities and infrastructure until Kyiv’s resources and the West’s willingness to continue supporting the war are exhausted.

That calculation could also reduce Moscow’s incentive to negotiate. If the Kremlin believes its missiles can strike Ukrainian cities with limited risk of interception, it may see little reason to make concessions at the negotiating table.

A huge barrage shows the danger

Russia has already demonstrated the scale of firepower it can deploy. Ukrainian air defences reported shooting down 98 drones during a major overnight attack, while Russia also used Zircon, Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and other drones.

The main targets included the Kyiv region and Zaporizhzhia. With winter approaching and interceptor stocks under pressure, Ukraine faces a race to strengthen its defences before Moscow launches the next wave.

Russia prepares major strikes on Kyiv's energy infrastructure — ISW