Middle East Daily Briefing August 13 2026

Hormuz oil claims collide with shipping reality

The Trump administration is insisting that oil is once again flowing normally from the Middle East despite evidence that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below pre-war levels. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says oil exports from the region have returned to normal, claiming almost 9 million barrels a day are now leaving through the strait and another 5–7 million barrels a day are being moved through upgraded pipelines and alternative export facilities. He said more than 20 million barrels left the Arabian Gulf region on Sunday alone, supposedly exceeding the pre-war average.

Shipping figures tell a different story

The problem is that independent shipping data does not appear to support the most dramatic claims. Kpler recorded only 84 vessels passing through Hormuz during the entire week, including just nine on Sunday. Before the war, more than 100 vessels a day were routinely using the waterway. JPMorgan estimates that actual oil moving through the strait is closer to 4 million barrels a day, while Kpler says the physical shipping traffic is difficult to reconcile with the government's much higher figure. On Monday, just six vessels crossed the strait — four inbound and two outbound — and none was a crude oil tanker.

Pipelines are doing the heavy lifting

There is, however, an important part of Wright's argument that appears to be correct. Gulf producers have been working around the strait wherever possible, with Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline alone capable of moving more than 5 million barrels a day towards the Red Sea. Other Gulf states have also been using pipelines and alternative export terminals, meaning a substantial quantity of oil can escape the immediate Hormuz bottleneck without ships actually crossing the strait. Those routes now appear to be operating close to their maximum capacity.

Trump declares a “wall of steel”

Trump has meanwhile doubled down on his claim that Washington has effectively won control of the strategic waterway. He declared that the United States has “total control” of Hormuz and described the US naval blockade as a “WALL OF STEEL”, insisting Iran is now largely powerless. Trump also claimed Iran has lost much of its military capability and said the country's economy is being crushed by the American pressure campaign.

Analysts remain deeply sceptical

Energy analysts argue that the administration may be deliberately talking up oil flows in an effort to keep prices under control and reassure financial markets. The reality is considerably more complicated. Oil prices have remained lower than might have been expected during such a massive supply disruption partly because global demand has fallen and China has been drawing down its enormous stockpiles. Analysts warn that a brief increase in shipping traffic does not mean Hormuz has returned to normal. Commercial tanker operators still face the possibility of attack and many remain reluctant to enter the waterway.

There is also a substantial shadow fleet operating in the region. Of the 84 vessels Kpler recorded crossing Hormuz last week, 17 were identified as shadow-fleet crossings and 10 were carrying sanctioned cargo. Some vessels switch off their transponders or use false flags, making the true picture harder to establish. The Energy Department insists its figures, compiled with assistance from the US military, are superior to commercial shipping trackers.

US strikes in Yemen add another problem

Away from the oil dispute, a Pentagon review has revealed that American strikes against Iran-backed Houthi targets in Yemen last year caused far greater civilian casualties than previously acknowledged. The review found that three US airstrikes in April 2025 killed 153 civilians and injured another 243. The worst attack hit the Ras Isa port, killing 80 people and injuring 171. The Pentagon concluded the strikes “more likely than not” caused civilian harm, based on US intelligence, satellite imagery and open-source evidence.