European Spy Chiefs Warn Moscow Could Test NATO Soon

European intelligence officials have warned that Russia may be preparing more decisive action against Nato, including a possible test of Nato’s resolve in the coming months.

Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, told parliament that intelligence assessments suggested Russia could try to attack Nato territory using drones or missiles within months. He said the move would be aimed at demonstrating that Article 5 is “more theoretical than practical”.

French president Emmanuel Macron described Tusk’s warning as “sound and well-documented”. On Friday, Macron summoned party leaders and 2027 presidential candidates to an emergency meeting in Paris, where they discussed, among other issues, intelligence pointing to a growing threat from Russia.

Tusk And Macron Urge Caution

The latest escalation concerns are emerging as the UN general assembly meets in New York later this week, alongside intensifying airstrikes in Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Kyiv said it carried out a major strike early on Sunday, targeting Moscow and other Russian regions with hundreds of drones and missiles, in what was described as one of the largest attacks of the war.

In separate interviews over the past week, European intelligence leaders set out their assessments of the risk from Russia.

Possible Incursion Or Campaign Of Pressure

Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, said Russia could increase drone activity and may also consider a limited invasion of Nato territory that borders Russia. He suggested such a scenario could include a “limited incursion”, false-flag provocations and a large influence campaign, and said it could unfold in “months, not years”.

Koudelka said many people were working to prevent it, but did not detail what specific intelligence had led to the assessment.

Officials in the Baltic states were more cautious about the likelihood of an imminent invasion, citing Russia’s strains in Ukraine and warning that heightened public alarm could help Russian psychological operations.

Normunds Mežviets, director general of Latvia’s state security service (VDD), said Latvia had no indications of an attack coming soon. He acknowledged signs that Moscow was preparing for further action in Europe, but said it remained unclear whether the plans represented direct intent or rather formed part of a broader effort to spread fear and uncertainty in western societies.

Baltic officials, who have long criticised western Europe for taking too soft an approach to Russia, now urged some partners to temper public messaging. On Saturday, Jonatan Vseviov, Estonia’s foreign ministry secretary general, criticised “panic on social media” and wrote on X that if there were a reason to fear an attack, authorities would make that clear, adding: “Until then, keep calm, carry on and support Ukraine.”

Sabotage Campaign Likely To Intensify

Mežviets said it was positive that western Europe had started to take the threat more seriously since 2022, when Baltic and Polish warnings were largely dismissed.

He also said Russia’s sabotage campaign in Europe was likely to intensify, with a shift from randomised attacks intended to sow panic towards more targeted actions aimed at areas linked to western support for Ukraine.

Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s military intelligence and security service, said the recent armed drone incident at Leipzig airport in Germany, which authorities have attributed to Russian intelligence, could be a “gamechanger” because of the potential for loss of life and damage to critical infrastructure. He added that Moscow’s aims include weakening support for Ukraine, encouraging divisions in Nato, and alarming European populations, including through persistent pressure without direct action.

Koudelka said Russia’s approach was aimed at “escalate to de-escalate” by probing vulnerabilities within western societies in order to reduce support for Ukraine. He also argued that the sabotage campaign puts pressure on intelligence services, because every incident can end up triggering investigations even when the causes are not linked to deliberate attacks.

Neither Mežviets nor Koudelka discussed what intelligence had been obtained. Both also declined to comment on whether a surprise visit by the CIA director, John Ratcliffe, to Moscow last month—during which he stopped in Riga—was connected to warning the Kremlin against attacking Nato.

After the trip, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed rumours of an attack on Nato, saying they had “nothing to do with reality” and with “the intentions of the Russian Federation”.

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21 September 2026

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