Saint Barack lectures black men

[stateman]

OOPS! Moderator, I meant for this to be in the CM Forum. Don't know how it landed in the Chiangrai forum. Can someone help fix this? Thanks.

Can I request this to be a rather technical discussion? Not sure if this is against any rule?

Moderator: would you consider pinning this topic?

I am thinking something like reinforcing the building structures, such as bracing, and securing things.

More technical discussion may follow if we get the moderator to OK this to be the same. I especially love to hear from someone with a civil/structural engineering background who has done something.

My distinct impression from looking at buildings in CM/Chiangrai and compared to those in California; I felt the structural members seen in Thai bldgs are skinnier. I am quite certain most of the bldgs. in the country up to this point are not reinforced for the lateral forces from the EQ.

I am thinking that the past 30 years there were hardly any. Then we keep getting more of them, until we now had a 5+ EQ nearby. Be that there are a couple EQ centers in CM, it seems logical to think that what happens the last few years maybe foreshocks, leading to a larger one. Besides, the ones in CM has not really relieved of built-up stresses through much quaking at all. That doesn''t mean the area is safer.

I believe the gov. is going to revise the EQ risk in the country, and CM's projection will be revised to be larger than a 5+. So say if there is a 6+ or 7+. Does anyone feel ready for it?

Edited November 5, 2007 by stateman

[AjarnP]

OOPS! Moderator, I meant for this to be in the CM Forum. Don't know how it landed in the Chiangrai forum. Can someone help fix this? Thanks.

Can I request this to be a rather technical discussion? Not sure if this is against any rule?

Moderator: would you consider pinning this topic?

I am thinking something like reinforcing the building structures, such as bracing, and securing things.

More technical discussion may follow if we get the moderator to OK this to be the same. I especially love to hear from someone with a civil/structural engineering background who has done something.

My distinct impression from looking at buildings in CM/Chiangrai and compared to those in California; I felt the structural members seen in Thai bldgs are skinnier. I am quite certain most of the bldgs. in the country up to this point are not reinforced for the lateral forces from the EQ.

I am thinking that the past 30 years there were hardly any. Then we keep getting more of them, until we now had a 5+ EQ nearby. Be that there are a couple EQ centers in CM, it seems logical to think that what happens the last few years maybe foreshocks, leading to a larger one. Besides, the ones in CM has not really relieved of built-up stresses through much quaking at all. That doesn''t mean the area is safer.

I believe the gov. is going to revise the EQ risk in the country, and CM's projection will be revised to be larger than a 5+. So say if there is a 6+ or 7+. Does anyone feel ready for it?

Hi Stateman,

I think we may have crossed on my request for lyrics last week. Thanks for your help on that too.

This matter has been discussed some time ago when the forum in general was discussing the costs of construction in Thailand in general. I designed my house specifically to be earthquake resistant. It is a whoel process and not one that lends itself to retro-fitting. In fact, IMO it would be easier (and cheaper?) to knock something not designed adequately down and start again. The process starts with the foundations. There are many I can hear already boo-hooing the necessity and maybe they're right. Having been in the industry for the last 30+ years I wanted it done right from the beginning and am happy in my security.

My estimate of additional costs would be something like 50% of the structural works with the majority of that being taken up by a qualified professional engineer to design it in the first place.

COnstruction Codes under the Bangkok Metropolitan Authority's Building Regulations now call for all buildings to be earthquake resistant. (I use 'resistant' as I don't believe there os a 'proof') It is only a matter of time before the outlying provinces adopt the same principles. This of course rather depends on whether or not one bothers oneself with the formalities of seeking approval for one's construction in the first place I guess. Sooner or later we will be hit by a big one and it will do even more damage when it comes.

Anyone requiring shelter is welcome the following day

Cheers, good topic

AjarnP

[Crow Boy]

OOPS! Moderator, I meant for this to be in the CM Forum. Don't know how it landed in the Chiangrai forum. Can someone help fix this? Thanks.

Can I request this to be a rather technical discussion? Not sure if this is against any rule?

Moderator: would you consider pinning this topic?

As requested I am moving this thread to the Chiang Mai forum - re pinning the topic it will depend on the relevance and long term use of it. At this stage I will put it in the forum and then see how it goes. One of the CM moderators may decide it is worth pinning.

regards

Crow Boy

Moderating Team

Thai Visa

[Maejo Man]

Jeeze I don't know what all the fuss is about. I have a minor earthquake at my place every other day. I thought that was why I had to replace my roof, but it was termites and not the earthquake.

[Diablo Bob]

OOPS! Moderator, I meant for this to be in the CM Forum. Don't know how it landed in the Chiangrai forum. Can someone help fix this? Thanks.

Can I request this to be a rather technical discussion? Not sure if this is against any rule?

Moderator: would you consider pinning this topic?

I am thinking something like reinforcing the building structures, such as bracing, and securing things.

More technical discussion may follow if we get the moderator to OK this to be the same. I especially love to hear from someone with a civil/structural engineering background who has done something.

My distinct impression from looking at buildings in CM/Chiangrai and compared to those in California; I felt the structural members seen in Thai bldgs are skinnier. I am quite certain most of the bldgs. in the country up to this point are not reinforced for the lateral forces from the EQ.

I am thinking that the past 30 years there were hardly any. Then we keep getting more of them, until we now had a 5+ EQ nearby. Be that there are a couple EQ centers in CM, it seems logical to think that what happens the last few years maybe foreshocks, leading to a larger one. Besides, the ones in CM has not really relieved of built-up stresses through much quaking at all. That doesn''t mean the area is safer.

I believe the gov. is going to revise the EQ risk in the country, and CM's projection will be revised to be larger than a 5+. So say if there is a 6+ or 7+. Does anyone feel ready for it?

Hi Stateman,

I think we may have crossed on my request for lyrics last week. Thanks for your help on that too.

This matter has been discussed some time ago when the forum in general was discussing the costs of construction in Thailand in general. I designed my house specifically to be earthquake resistant. It is a whoel process and not one that lends itself to retro-fitting. In fact, IMO it would be easier (and cheaper?) to knock something not designed adequately down and start again. The process starts with the foundations. There are many I can hear already boo-hooing the necessity and maybe they're right. Having been in the industry for the last 30+ years I wanted it done right from the beginning and am happy in my security.

My estimate of additional costs would be something like 50% of the structural works with the majority of that being taken up by a qualified professional engineer to design it in the first place.

COnstruction Codes under the Bangkok Metropolitan Authority's Building Regulations now call for all buildings to be earthquake resistant. (I use 'resistant' as I don't believe there os a 'proof') It is only a matter of time before the outlying provinces adopt the same principles. This of course rather depends on whether or not one bothers oneself with the formalities of seeking approval for one's construction in the first place I guess. Sooner or later we will be hit by a big one and it will do even more damage when it comes.

Anyone requiring shelter is welcome the following day

Cheers, good topic

AjarnP

A few years ago, I got the contract to construct the new Canadian Embassy here in Kabul. Part of the project was a seismic retrofit to an existing house (200m2) in the complex.

The demolition involved was extensive, the addition of new shear walls and connecting these elements was not only time consuming but increadibly expensive (Sika-Flex alone was more than $50,000).

I agree with AjarnP that it would be more cost effective and probably faster to start from the begining.

[chownah]

Anyone wanting to pay extra to have their house earthquake resistant can of course go ahead and do that. I just want to point out that there is to the best of my knowledge no history of earthquake damage in Thailand (tsunami excepted) and so the usual wisdom is that it is not necessary to take any extraordinairy steps to counter earthquakes. Building according to the prevailing codes is enough. Study of building failures (all around the world) from earthquakes has shown that often the failure was because prevailing construction codes were violated...things like inadequate rebar size, inadequate overlap at rebar joints, elimination of confinement steel in columns, improper rebar end development, etc. are often the cause of the failure. These are standard details which should be followed but often are not. I advise doing whatever it takes to be sure that standard practices are followed.

I repeat....those wanting to take extra measure for the possibility of earthquakes surely can do this and if it resolves their worries then great.

Does anyone know of a report of structural damage in Thailand caused by earthquake (other than tsunami or ancient temples that were unmaintained)?

Chownah

Edited November 6, 2007 by chownah

[TheEmperorOfTheNorth]

Chiang Mai has been here 710 years or so. There has NEVER been an earthquake worth mentioning. If you don't make obvious mistakes in construction then I think you can safely start worrying about other things.

t seems logical to think that what happens the last few years maybe foreshocks, leading to a larger one. Besides, the ones in CM has not really relieved of built-up stresses through much quaking at all.

You're geologist and have done research about the Chiang Mai area?

[stateman]

As requested I am moving this thread to the Chiang Mai forum

Crow Boy

Moderating Team

Thai Visa

Thanks Crow Boy! You are the Man of the Day!

-------

.. on my request for lyrics last week. Thanks for your help on that too.

.. My estimate of additional costs would be something like 50% of the structural works with the majority of that being taken up by a qualified professional engineer to design it in the first place.

Sooner or later we will be hit by a big one and it will do even more damage when it comes.

AjarnP

AjarnP, you are welcome. Hope you enjoyed the song.

I admire you for your foresight in designing the EQ resistance into the building. "Time to build the Arc is before the flood comes." Did you get the design work done from California?

I imagine that part of the 50% increase is due to stronger members in the bldg., both from being a US design vs. a Thai design; EQ resistance contribution, and the unfamiliarity by the contractor and others such as reg. approval in LOS. Wonder how much was really attributed to the EQ-resistance part itself.

Not that it is the same, but I remember my professor said he designed his house to withstand a hurricane in New Orleans and it increased the cost by about 10%.

Are you familiar with the basic engineering put into the design, such as building on a decently thick slab, cross braces in the walls, shear walls, high strength elastic bonding for joints, etc.? I would be interesting to hear the basic concept as well as details in the reinforcement.

-------

A few years ago, I got the contract to construct the new Canadian Embassy here in Kabul. Part of the project was a seismic retrofit to an existing house (200m2) in the complex.

The demolition involved was extensive, the addition of new shear walls and connecting these elements was not only time consuming but increadibly expensive (Sika-Flex alone was more than $50,000).

I agree with AjarnP that it would be more cost effective and probably faster to start from the begining.

Diablo Bob: You seems to have some interesting experience about EQ-resistant bldg. I think what you can share may be interesting to some readers in CM. I am curious to know what you might do if you are to build your own house in CM?

As for $50k, I assume Sikaflex was used in all joints for elastic bonding in lieu of regular mortar? Probably for a brick bldg?

[stateman]

Chiang Mai has been here 710 years or so. There has NEVER been an earthquake worth mentioning. If you don't make obvious mistakes in construction then I think you can safely start worrying about other things.

it seems logical to think that what happens the last few years maybe foreshocks, leading to a larger one. Besides, the ones in CM has not really relieved of built-up stresses through much quaking at all.

You're geologist and have done research about the Chiang Mai area?

CM is in fact famous for a large jedee (a spire-shaped pagoda) broken due to an EQ. What is left is still around today. I made the point of visiting it.

As I know CM, and Thailand for that matter, didn't design EQ resistance into the bldgs in the past. Now they are starting to require it. The safety of these bldgs. in a sizable EQ almost may be predictable, although I won't do it here. A bldg. which is designed mostly for vertical load will behave entirely differently when subjected to lateral load applied to the ground supporting the bldg.

As I was interested in buying a house in CM, I did some research. Without going through my hard drive for all the references I saved, let me just say casually what I recall. Please don't expect absolutely accuracy then. Someone who check things out is welcome to correct me for correctness for the record here.

From the Thai gov.'s geological info, I found that there are 2 centers of EQ (speaking from memory now) in CM plus hot water springs. What does that mean in term of EQ safety? I seem to remember that the one at Sansai/Maerim look quite messy underneath (lots of faults in a small area) . I also saw a table listing all the EQ reported which they collected - which I never saw in the news media. Both the EQ in and out of Thailand, their magnitude and whether they are felt in Thailand and where.

This reminds me of the larger geological mess underneath Yellowstone in the US, which has faults and hot water springs/geisers. Similar to CM, except larger in scale. It was expected that major EQ may happen there (although time frame unknown.) So I suspect Yellowstone can have a much larger EQ than CM, strictly IMO based on what I know - not from any official comparison. But EQ is a funny thing. It is almost less important which is potentially more severe. IMO whichever one will hit and affect us while we live at that location is really more relevant - especially if our houses happen to be incapable of withstanding the smaller EQ! Case in point the damage caused by the 5+ and 6+ EQ in Iran. What if CM gets 5+ and 6+ ones?

The problem with CM, as well as other areas in Thailand, is there wasn't much detailed study about faults. Granted many faults are identified. But the extent are not well known. This is nowhere comparable to what California geologists know about faults in CA. A few decades ago, Thais would have told you that Thailand has no EQ. I have heard that many times.

The tsunami changed all that. Next year there will be more serious effort to find out about faults in Thailand. The study probably will last 1-2 years. So shortly you will know what the 1-2 years study reveals. Comparing this to California geologists who got serious since the 1906 SF EQ. Very serious studies have been going on until now. So CA has over 100 years worth of dB. Even with such serious effort, geologists there still say that they keep getting hit with previously unknown faults. So how much can we expect from/trust the Thai knowledge base?

As an aside, Chiangrai has a fault called MaeJun Fault coming down from our neighboring country in the north. Burma, China, Laos all had EQ not too far from CM/CR. Readings are up to 5+ size, or more. [Just to throw in another point, Burirum in the NE has an old volcano. ]

So how much do we really know about Thailand? It seems that the seemingly 'safe' Thailand is more because of our ignorance, than the actual knowledge that they are really safe.

Having lived in Calif. for many years and felt a 6.9, a couple 5+, plus others which happened but wasn't felt in the area I lived. I did a lot of reading about EQ, as San Andrea fault was only a few miles away, plus there are several other faults large and small nearby, I learned that if a fault hasn't relieved of its stress for a long time - it may not be a good thing! Faults in Thailand has not had some serious EQ to relieve their stresses. So where do they stand in term of getting one and how large? I don't know. In fact no one knows.

I don't mean to be an alarmist. I just thought to find out more. And I hope to learn it together with readers in this forum about what can/should be done for a safer stay in Thailand, for those who wants to do something, whether a significant EQ is coming or not. This thread is meant for sharing the wealth of engineering/building for EQ resistance which is better documented in California and some other places - with the idea of applying them to CM and/or other part of Thailand.

If enough people are interested along the line of your comment, I think we may start another topic to discuss the non-technical part, like whether one should even be concerned about EQ, the safety of CM from EQ, is EQ talk for CM/Thailand a lot of hot air, etc. But I hope that will be done in another thread.

[stateman]

I stopped at some rest areas along I-5 north of LA. I saw some standalone walls providing shades for the picnic tables. The standalone wall is similar to a fence. I noticed supports for EQ on the standalone wall. They supported the wall by building another short wall perpendicular to the main wall. If you look from top down, the two walls now form a T shape. Then a beam along the top of the short wall kind of pressing on the main wall where they intersect. In effect making the main wall at that point simple supported (i.e suported at 2-points - at the ground and at the top). Very smart idea. Similar deal every so often along the main wall.

I used to be curious about what would happen in CM in an EQ if someone has a long brick fence along each periphery of the property. As EQ happens, the earth is shaking laterally on the erected fence which cantilevers above the ground. I imagined the brick walls would easily fall down due to that force perpendicular to the fence.

In case the fence is built with concrete 2-D frame, with concrete columns every so many meters apart, supported on the ground with a few piles and complete the rectangular frame with ground beam and top beam. Bricks are filled inside the frame. I'vd seen some more expensive fence done this way. From the support stand point, this is still a fence cantilevering up above the ground support. Subject to the EQ lateral force applied to the ground, these expensive wall still can fall down fairly easily.

Applying the lateral support like those I saw at the California rest areas, I magine that at every station where there is a concrete column supported by piles below, a short wall 50-70cm long, perpendicular to the main wall, should suport the long wall in the direction the main wall is weakest - i.e. against lateral movement perpendicular to the main fence. In essense, this is similar to the concept of a shear wall of a building, except it is for the fence.

I think these fence so reinforced should stand a much better chance to remain standing up after an EQ, compared to the neighbor's.

Thoughts?

[FolkGuitar]

Does anyone feel ready for it?

Absolutely. Although I can't effect changes in the structural integrity of my building, after living in EarthQuake Central for 13 years we do take certain precautions. We maintain a 'run-bag.' for each of us at all times, containing hard-soled boots, socks, several bottles of water, powerful flashlight and extra batteries (the batteries both IN the flashlight and spares get changed every year just to be safe,) a 'space blanket,' well equipped first aid kit with trauma dressings, not just band-aids (plasters) money both Thai and USD, fire making equipment, pocket knife, 20 meters of para-cord, a small cook pot, and three days worth of emergency foods. These bags are kept in the bedroom, next to the bed. Everything fits into a medium sized day pack and without the boots in it, weighs almost nothing. If this were a perfect world we'd also have a climbing rope on the veranda with harness and decenders as we did in Japan, but we don't have this luxury here, as I don't trust the railing on the veranda to hold our weight in an emergency. In Japan there were steel rings bolted into the cement just for that purpose.

More than this we can not do. But this is enough to see us through an emergency assuming we survive the initial quake or aftershocks. Most important items; the hard soled boots, pocket knife, and fire making supplies! I was going to include a microwave oven, but I don't think Thailand has current bushes to plug them in to....

Something else that can be done, although we haven't done it here as we did in Japan, is insert wedges under the front sides of cabinets, dressers, closets, etc., anything that could fall over. The wedges are just about 1.5cm thick at the thick end, but that's enough to keep things from tipping over on you. We also had bolted all furniture that was against walls TO the walls and to what ever was next to it. The entire wall would have to collapse for any furniture to tumble.

It's like health insurance. You take it out (or assemble it) and then pray you never have to use it.

Edited November 6, 2007 by FolkGuitar

[stateman]

Does anyone feel ready for it?

Absolutely. Although I can't effect changes in the structural integrity of my building, after living in EarthQuake Central for 13 years we do take certain precautions. We maintain a 'run-bag.' for each of us at all times, containing hard-soled boots, socks, several bottles of water, powerful flashlight and extra batteries (the batteries both IN the flashlight and spares get changed every year just to be safe,) a 'space blanket,' well equipped first aid kit with trauma dressings, not just band-aids (plasters) money both Thai and USD, fire making equipment, pocket knife, 20 meters of para-cord, a small cook pot, and three days worth of emergency foods. These bags are kept in the bedroom, next to the bed. Everything fits into a medium sized day pack and without the boots in it, weighs almost nothing. If this were a perfect world we'd also have a climbing rope on the veranda with harness and decenders as we did in Japan, but we don't have this luxury here, as I don't trust the railing on the veranda to hold our weight in an emergency. In Japan there were steel rings bolted into the cement just for that purpose.

More than this we can not do. But this is enough to see us through an emergency assuming we survive the initial quake or aftershocks. Most important items; the hard soled boots, pocket knife, and fire making supplies! I was going to include a microwave oven, but I don't think Thailand has current bushes to plug them in to....

Something else that can be done, although we haven't done it here as we did in Japan, is insert wedges under the front sides of cabinets, dressers, closets, etc., anything that could fall over. The wedges are just about 1.5cm thick at the thick end, but that's enough to keep things from tipping over on you. We also had bolted all furniture that was against walls TO the walls and to what ever was next to it. The entire wall would have to collapse for any furniture to tumble.

It's like health insurance. You take it out (or assemble it) and then pray you never have to use it.

FolkGuitar: Sound like you are indeed prepared for it, reflecting your exposure to the EQ risk.

Having lived in the EQ Central, as you called it - which I assume it was Japan, what is your thinking about the structural integrity of your residence? You didn't mention whether you rent or own. If you have the choice of doing anything to it, is there anything you'd consider doing to it, or do you feel comfortable with the structure as is?

BTW wonder if you know Japan's approach to EQ resistance for their residencial bldg? Certainly building code is a factor. Wonder if you know what they dictate as compared to Thailand which previously didn't have such requirement. Also, after Kobe, any tightening?

[FolkGuitar]

Does anyone feel ready for it?

Absolutely. Although I can't effect changes in the structural integrity of my building, after living in EarthQuake Central for 13 years we do take certain precautions. We maintain a 'run-bag.' for each of us at all times, containing hard-soled boots, socks, several bottles of water, powerful flashlight and extra batteries (the batteries both IN the flashlight and spares get changed every year just to be safe,) a 'space blanket,' well equipped first aid kit with trauma dressings, not just band-aids (plasters) money both Thai and USD, fire making equipment, pocket knife, 20 meters of para-cord, a small cook pot, and three days worth of emergency foods. These bags are kept in the bedroom, next to the bed. Everything fits into a medium sized day pack and without the boots in it, weighs almost nothing. If this were a perfect world we'd also have a climbing rope on the veranda with harness and decenders as we did in Japan, but we don't have this luxury here, as I don't trust the railing on the veranda to hold our weight in an emergency. In Japan there were steel rings bolted into the cement just for that purpose.

More than this we can not do. But this is enough to see us through an emergency assuming we survive the initial quake or aftershocks. Most important items; the hard soled boots, pocket knife, and fire making supplies! I was going to include a microwave oven, but I don't think Thailand has current bushes to plug them in to....

Something else that can be done, although we haven't done it here as we did in Japan, is insert wedges under the front sides of cabinets, dressers, closets, etc., anything that could fall over. The wedges are just about 1.5cm thick at the thick end, but that's enough to keep things from tipping over on you. We also had bolted all furniture that was against walls TO the walls and to what ever was next to it. The entire wall would have to collapse for any furniture to tumble.

It's like health insurance. You take it out (or assemble it) and then pray you never have to use it.

FolkGuitar: Sound like you are indeed prepared for it, reflecting your exposure to the EQ risk.

Having lived in the EQ Central, as you called it - which I assume it was Japan, what is your thinking about the structural integrity of your residence? You didn't mention whether you rent or own. If you have the choice of doing anything to it, is there anything you'd consider doing to it, or do you feel comfortable with the structure as is?

BTW wonder if you know Japan's approach to EQ resistance for their residencial bldg? Certainly building code is a factor. Wonder if you know what they dictate as compared to Thailand which previously didn't have such requirement. Also, after Kobe, any tightening?

The building I live in survived a very strong quake several months ago, one that broke the tops of several temples in the Chiang Rai area, with little or no damage. That quake was the first one that really frightened me. It lasted about 20-30 seconds and half the water in my fish tank splashed out onto the floor. However, I didn't notice any structural damage around the building itself. I'm on the 14th floor and this was the first time I have actually been scared Sh!tL@ss of an earthquake. I even said 'goodbye' to the cat.

As for Japan, they are doing amazing things with 'earthquake proofing' large skyscrapers, using rolling carriages and rubber supports at the bottoms, and counter balances on the roofs. Every supermarket and all home centers sell a plethora of earthquake proofing supplies for the individual living quarters, from the sorts of wedges I mentioned, brackets for securing furniture to walls, little retaining walls for the front of cabinets, etc. etc.

I was in the middle of the Kobe quake (they seem to follow me around... I was in the two big ones in California, several in Japan, then this last large one here) and there is no doubt that Mother Nature is a Motha! While Japan is making tremendous strides in protecting the larger structures, they are still in tremendous risk with their smaller private homes. It is traditional to use post and beam construction, carefully fitted joints, etc., but they still cap off their homes with heavy blue ceramic tiles. It is these heavy tiles high up that throw the center of balance off when the building shakes.

Now California want to replace its wooden roofing shingles with ceramic ones. Yes, it will counter act the threat of fire, but at the same time increase the threat of earthquake damage. You just can't put heavy things on top of lighter things and expect it to remain standing when the earth begins to move. And we haven't even BEGUN to address the problems of 'liquifaction,' the ground turning to jelly as the earthquake shakes.

Imagine putting a lead fishing sinker on top of a glass of sand. The sinker sits there nicely. Then begin shaking the glass and watch the sinker get lower and lower into the sand until it is covered. That is liquifaction. It doesn't need to be sand, either. I can happen with hard packed clay or even cement. Down, down, down.....

So we do what can can do, pray that we won't need to use any of the measures, and save our shaking for the dance floor and the bedroom!

[pdx00782]

20100721 4cast4 10 year Earth Quake period

terms defigned

8+year "ROUND" = 4 Jiggles

2+year "JIGGLE" = come in four flavors SFSF SWSW FSFS WSWS / 4 SEASONS/j

Season are tipically 3 months 90 days ocasionally 4 months rarely 5

above is a graphic of the present "ROUND" 8+years

it began between JD2.4551 & JD2.4552 * 10^6

with a Spring Fall Spring Fall (Jiggle) "SFSF"

2009-2012 (two years) 2.4551- 2.4559 (800 days

THERE ARE TWO UPCOMMING EVENT WINDOWS

OOO Orange October Offsets 2.4554

& Fall"season" centered? 9/7 (2010)

these ? may overlap ?

[WinnieTheKhwai]

You can't predict earthquakes. (unless under very specific circumstances in active areas) My mum in law said essentially the same as you, that an earthquake was coming up, but I explained this is nonsense.

[jackr]

So say if there is a 6+ or 7+. Does anyone feel ready for it?

No, because there won't be one of that magnitude owing to the nature of the faults here. They are too slick compared with, say, the San Andreas fault.

[pdx00782]

20100722 thursday apt 6:30:30.030 AM pdT i use blue numbers on even numbered days red for odd. as for the exact time? i donno actually!

[Throatwobbler]

Chiang Mai has been here 710 years or so. There has NEVER been an earthquake worth mentioning. If you don't make obvious mistakes in construction then I think you can safely start worrying about other things.

t seems logical to think that what happens the last few years maybe foreshocks, leading to a larger one. Besides, the ones in CM has not really relieved of built-up stresses through much quaking at all.

You're geologist and have done research about the Chiang Mai area?

Ask Wat Chedi Luang about earthquakes worth mentioning.