Transition In Thai Farm Practises

[ozzydom]

A show on BBC this evening stated that rice price to thailand rice growers is the highest in 20 years.

Evidently the World will consume more rice this year than it produces, which has driven up prices including those paid to growers, (although I have seen no sign of this in our area)

Vietnam is so concerned that it has suspended the export of rice in fears of a national shortage.

The explanation was that in Thailand "The Rice Basket of the World" many farmers had changed over to producing crops for the Bio-fuel industry in lieu of rice because of probable higher income.

Rice is the staple food in many countries including many 3rd World countries who cannot produce their own rice. The program gave examples of these countries where family income is about $1 per day with 70% of this spent on food,the price increases will mean even more poverty and even starvation to many.

It was a very sobering program when you consider the millions already starving in the World, a further shortfall in food production will be even more catastrophic .

It seems that the affluent societies thirst for fuel transcends the need to feed the poorer nations of our world.

I can see only tough times ahead as fossil fuel stocks run down and more farmers opt for supplying the Bio-fuel industry instead of food production.

ozzy

[Lickey]

Sister in law just had 55 very good lamyai trees hacked down on her farm so she could plant cassava in there place, and everyday when i sit outside salon, trucks go past with all sorts of fruit trees chopped up in the back, and i can only guess the fruit farmers want to grow cassava, perhaps then the market will be flooded and prices fall because the bio-fuel processors cant cope with all the input of cassava, and of course it will have a knock-on effect with food and fruit prices, specially rice, Mrs and me talked about this tonight, we will stay fruit and salad farmers, and keep a fair price for our produce, and keep our loyal customers, of course Mrs salon buisness keeps our heads well above water, but a lot of thais dont have this option, Lickey..

[fruity]

Our local rice factory / mill, a very big operation are now paying 12 baht per kilo for rice, rarely if ever I am told have they paid this price! I remember a month or two ago when rice harvest was in full swing, they were paying 6-7 baht per kilo then as supplies dwindled it went up to 8 baht.

[pnustedt]

Driving along the 24 road the other day I was surprised at the number of overloaded trucks carrying sugar cane there were (several overturned). It does appear that a number of rice fields are being turned over to this crop.

We had a good rice harvest last year (southern Issan) but I understand that some areas to the north, where they normally have three harvests pa, only achieved two last year due to floods - this could be contributing to a shortage of rice.

[billd766]

Up near Khampaeng Phet on this side of the village towards the Mae Wong national park it is mostly sloping ground so the staple crops have been cassava and fruit trees.

On the other side for around 10km or so it is rice then on the hills again it is cassava.

This I think is mainly due to the greater chance of water on the flat lands and the fact that cassave needs little maintenance.

The price of cassava at the middlemans gate has doubled in the past year.

I have been talking with KhonWan and he reckons that with a good helping of fertiliser (which they don't normally use here) and leaving the crop for 2 years means a greater the double return than 1 year. For us with 2 plots and about 16 rai it is not a problem but for most of the local farmers they cannot afford that luxury so crop on a yearly basis.

My problem this coming year is to try to convince my wife (who knows more than me about farming) that is the way we should go. Perhaps plant both plots at the same time and then crop 1 after a year then alternate the plots on a yearly basis.

[Khonwan]

A show on BBC this evening stated that rice price to thailand rice growers is the highest in 20 years.

Evidently the World will consume more rice this year than it produces, which has driven up prices including those paid to growers, (although I have seen no sign of this in our area)

Vietnam is so concerned that it has suspended the export of rice in fears of a national shortage.

The explanation was that in Thailand "The Rice Basket of the World" many farmers had changed over to producing crops for the Bio-fuel industry in lieu of rice because of probable higher income.

Rice is the staple food in many countries including many 3rd World countries who cannot produce their own rice. The program gave examples of these countries where family income is about $1 per day with 70% of this spent on food,the price increases will mean even more poverty and even starvation to many.

It was a very sobering program when you consider the millions already starving in the World, a further shortfall in food production will be even more catastrophic .

It seems that the affluent societies thirst for fuel transcends the need to feed the poorer nations of our world.

I can see only tough times ahead as fossil fuel stocks run down and more farmers opt for supplying the Bio-fuel industry instead of food production.

ozzy

This was my point when I made the comment recently in another farming thread, stating that I forecast the price of cassava (etc) shall remain high for 10 years, driven by the bio-fuel craze, before governments realize bio-fuel is not the panacea they currently believe it to be. The effect on food production can only worsen and is ultimately unsustainable. Resources must be directed rather at sustainable energy from sources such as solar, tidal, wave, wind, etc.

With regards to cheap food…food has been too cheap in the past, at the expense of the producers: farmers (unless you are fortunate to farm in the west and be in receipt of subsidies!). Producers need a fair price for their labour and investment risk; the poorer consumers of the world need some protection against spiraling food costs. The problem of resolving both demands equitably probably requires a political solution…subsidies being one such solution.

Rgds

Khonwan

[Gary A]

IMHO, It will be business as usual. The rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer. The ruling class will give the farmers just enough to keep them going and not a baht more.

[ozzydom]

A show on BBC this evening stated that rice price to thailand rice growers is the highest in 20 years.

Evidently the World will consume more rice this year than it produces, which has driven up prices including those paid to growers, (although I have seen no sign of this in our area)

Vietnam is so concerned that it has suspended the export of rice in fears of a national shortage.

The explanation was that in Thailand "The Rice Basket of the World" many farmers had changed over to producing crops for the Bio-fuel industry in lieu of rice because of probable higher income.

Rice is the staple food in many countries including many 3rd World countries who cannot produce their own rice. The program gave examples of these countries where family income is about $1 per day with 70% of this spent on food,the price increases will mean even more poverty and even starvation to many.

It was a very sobering program when you consider the millions already starving in the World, a further shortfall in food production will be even more catastrophic .

It seems that the affluent societies thirst for fuel transcends the need to feed the poorer nations of our world.

I can see only tough times ahead as fossil fuel stocks run down and more farmers opt for supplying the Bio-fuel industry instead of food production.

ozzy

This was my point when I made the comment recently in another farming thread, stating that I forecast the price of cassava (etc) shall remain high for 10 years, driven by the bio-fuel craze, before governments realize bio-fuel is not the panacea they currently believe it to be. The effect on food production can only worsen and is ultimately unsustainable. Resources must be directed rather at sustainable energy from sources such as solar, tidal, wave, wind, etc.

With regards to cheap food…food has been too cheap in the past, at the expense of the producers: farmers (unless you are fortunate to farm in the west and be in receipt of subsidies!). Producers need a fair price for their labour and investment risk; the poorer consumers of the world need some protection against spiraling food costs. The problem of resolving both demands equitably probably requires a political solution…subsidies being one such solution.

Rgds

Khonwan

Totally agree Khonwan

ozzy

[Maizefarmer]

Will our generation witness change – short answer I believe, is yes.

Chinese development over the next 10 – 20 years will force the Thai Ag sector to adapt or die – and as it stands currently it’s my opinion we’ll see more death than adaptation.

And if one doesn’t accept Chinese development as being a force which can/will exert influence over Thailand’s agricultural sector directly, then the climate change that scientists predict will come about in South East Asia from China’s development, is going to be what changes Thailand’s farming landscape – both literally and policy wise.

Either way, Thailand will need to address some serious farming issues over the next 10 - 20 years.

They are fundamental issues – issues which repeated governments have being warned about, but have failed to address….. and if one doubts how important the agriculture sector is in a developing Thailand, you only have to understand how Thaksin won his elections to understand that farming folk will have to have their situation addressed favourably at some point in the near future.

If the climate change that is anticipated does takes place, Thailand is going to be faced with enormous regional water shortages. Both its storage capacity and distribution infrastructure is currently woefully inadequate for current needs, let alone anticipated future needs.

Not withstanding which crops are grown for what purpose (e.g. bio-fuels versus food production, to earn more money), it would not surprise me if climate change and water supply clubbed together to limit crop production so much so, that it became immaterial what crop is grown for what usage – there just won’t be sufficient available. It now becomes a political issue.

But sticking with practical side of things, how ever we look at our farming industry in Thailand and its place in a developing nation, the threat looming on the horizon is in my opinion, China’s development.

Its potential impact on regional climate is big time scary. It is developing at a phenomenal rate – commissioning coal fired power stations at a rate of just over 1 new one p/week, it is registering new cars on its roads at rate that is growing faster than any other country in the world experienced since the car was invented – and the list of energy producing & consuming requirements for China is growing day by day, with no slow down anticipated for the short term

With development and climate change both taking place at current rates, we will see huge changes to national farming policy & practise - in our lifetime.

Thailand’s farming model is also currently one of poor efficiency, inadequate logistics, uncertain and often varying margins and a comparatively uneducated rural work force.

These are characteristics of the industry that will also need to change, if we are going to be able to compete (read compete as: adjust to climate changes and resist Chinese control). In its current state it will not survive - physically or economically.

As far as water goes, water supply in Thailand is heading for a crisis. The storage capacity and distribution infrastructure as it currently exists cannot support much more than is currently being grown each year, and before anything else is addressed, Thailand needs to address its emergency food reserves. Emergency rice stocks are enough for a few days. Overall in South East Asia, the emergency rice supply is even less – not much more than a days supply!

In short, there are enormous problems the Thai agricultural sector will have to address over the next few years – and at the end of the day, no matter what it does, the impending climate changes stemming from China’s booming industrial development and Asia’s rapidly growing population may just be too much for it to accommodate.

[Beardog]

Welcome Back Tim!

I have been offline building a baan on our small farm. Don't know when you got back online, but am glad to see you are allright.

Beardog

[Issangeorge]

Number one I want to welcome Tim back. I am glad it was a stolen satellite dish that kept you off line and not serious health problems. Back to topic, in my area of Issan, south east Kalasin, the cassava is grown on land that is only good for cassava and sugarcane growing and so does not really compete with food crops. Now that cassava and sugar cane are being used for bio fuel and the price has gone up the farmers in my area might be able to make a little money. To my mind the best thing Thaskin or any government can do to help the farmers is to supply them with the proper knowledge to grow their crops efficiently and productively and make sure they get a fair price for them. Issangeorge.

[khunandy]

To my mind the best thing Thaskin or any government can do to help the farmers is to supply them with the proper knowledge to grow their crops efficiently and productively and make sure they get a fair price for them. Issangeorge.

Can someone enlighten me? I've watched my wifes family and indeed the local village as a whole for a few years now and I just havent got the impression that they can read the market, know the market or have any access to what the market is supporting. I may have some facts and figures wrong here but it seems to me that rice is now getting about 40% more than it was a month ago (after they sold their surplus) and sugar cane is getting about 50% less this year than last (after a lot of village farmers have opted for sugar cane instead of rice.

Now, this years vegetable crop (cabbages) which it seems everyone grows (one in all in), they harvested 2 weeks ago , shipped it off in trucks and got a measly 15 baht per 10 kg. They were heartbroken. But they all grew nothing but cabbages.

Are Thais informed by any Govt Departments regarding the best returns for crops? Do they have access to market prices outside of their immediete market i.e. Chinese middlemen?

I have a farang mate who has worked the land all his life and has tried/suggested alternative crops and growing periods to his Thai farmer mates and it falls on deaf ears after an initial short period of enthusiasm. A few times he has planted a crop, set up irrigation and then had to return to farangland for work only to come back and witness a ruined, neglected crop. he has been doing this in a hobby capacity for over 10 years. he said to me recently that he just wants to do something for himself and avoid "convincing" unbelievers.

Do Thais only have faith in what is familiar, even though it is a terrible gamble.

I asked my wife why they bother and she said that they love to farm, I appreciate the answer but am still puzzled why they seem to have no idea of market forces and appear to be inflexible in changing or trying something new. It seems that as soon as someone steps outside the box and makes a quid the next year there is an over supply because every man and his dog are growing the same thing...sugercane for example.

It is a puzzle to me

Khun Andy

Edited February 2, 2008 by khunandy

[ozzydom]

quote=

Now, this years vegetable crop (cabbages) which it seems everyone grows (one in all in), they harvested 2 weeks ago , shipped it off in trucks and got a measly 15 baht per 10 kg. They were heartbroken. But they all grew nothing but cabbages.

And in that paragraph is part of the problem,OVERSUPPLY, and it isnt restricted to Thai farmers,it happens everywhere.

Lots of farmers are dedicated to single crops ,IE. they are sugar farmers or cassava farmers etc, these farmers are pretty efficient in what they grow through experience and know that you have good years and bad.

Other farmers grow food crops quite often based on what the market was the previous season,but the bird has flown,because cabbages were good last year every man and his dog plants cabbages and presto ,you have a cabbage glut.

This is a very simplistic explanation as there is much more to it than that, by growing bulk you have to harvest and sell bulk, this means dealing through agents and middle men etc, the more times you slice the pie the smaller the slices become.

Maybe growing product that returned poor prices the year before is the go, Nobody likes two years in succession of failure,so maybe "bucking the trend" is worth trying.

Alternatively ,diversifying and growing multi crops or out of season crops,providing you have the infrastructure such as available water is a way to try and ensure a better return on your labours.

Farming has always been a gamble ,sometimes you win and some you lose.

Example , across the river from us is a large rice grower and I,m told very astute, they have about 400 rai of paddy and always grow two crops a year, this year for the first time in local memory they did not plant a second crop and now the price of rice has gone to a 20 year high.

ozzy

[Lickey]

I read all the posts on TV and glean off the info, if i cant find it on here, i hunt it down on the internet, I find very good info here and on the internet, i relay my findings to the mrs who then tells the labour what to do on the farm, nothing is like i asked to be done, when i ask the mrs, she says they told her we do it Thai way, ok, perhaps 20/30 years behind western ideas, but they really have got to learn modern methods and ideas, and diversify more, Sometimes when im on the farm and see what they have done [against my advice] its a sit down with head in hands wondering why i bother!! and perhaps build 15 resort places instead!! again, i talked with the mrs about this, and her idea and rightly so is to keep growing fruit and salad, cos if the neighbours take away there fruit plantations, ours will comand a better price, im with Khun Andy on this, dont follow a trend set by market prices, keep options open, and if you want something done, do it yourself!! which is going to happen on our farm, Ive had enough of 20/30 year old logistics now, thanks, Lickey.

[Mosha]

Not Thai but Bio fuel related. Shock horror. European commisioners did not expect the growing of crops for bio fuels to push food prices up. What planet are they on?

[chrisyork]

There are a few seperate issues rolled up here.

First off, climate change. I haven't been able to find any specific outputs for Thailand arising from the latest UN climate change committee report. Prior to this the generally accepted view was that Thailand would escape the worst of the warming - say 2 - 3 degrees hotter and would get about 20% more rainfall. This makes Thailand almost unique, apart from the UK, where climate change has generally beneficial effects. Of course you could speculate it might go a bit further and faster. And then you could expect an increased incidence of extreme weather, storms and so forth. Then again I'd be very nervous if I owned property in Bangkok and Pattaya - to name but two - which must be exceptionally vulnerable to any sea level rise. Large parts of Bangkok are already below sea level!

What is certainly true is that agricultural produce is going to be far more in demand and fetch much higher prices. Thailand is likely to be uniquely well situated to cater to this demand. I really believe that the narrower issue of what crop is likely to be the most profitable to grow can be left to market forces. For sure there will be a period of huge instability as the new reality sinks in and people swop from crop to crop following the wholesale price. This is not a massive change from what already happens. In our area there has been a rapid drift from rice to sugar cane (for sugar) with periods of fashion for sweet corn, cotton etc etc. You could expect this trend to broadly favour the rural poor at the expense of urban factories, who could be expected to be starved of imported raw materials.

Contrast this outcome with the horrendous impact predicted for China and India. The immediate impact of this redrawing of relative wealth might well be a major push by Chinese to emegrate to Thailand. At worst this is likely to trigger armed conflict. Indeed the King in his Birthday address recently specifically urged for the army to undertake a major re-arming programme for this reason.

As far as energy goes it seems to me that the primary issue is not whether or how to go green but rather how to become self sufficient in energy production. Bear in mind that Thailand currently produces most electricity from imported Burmese gas, and virtually all motor fuels are imported.

It seems to me that there is a huge potential for small scale HEP in the North and down the Western spine. Also there will no doubt be more large scale HEP's combined with water management measures. Heating is not widely an issue in Thailand but cooling is. There is a step change required in the standard of insulation of domestic refrigerators, but space cooling is mainly about how to generate the electricity. No doubt many installlations will fall by the wayside as energy prices rocket. Expect to see at least some large scale nuclear generation - a relatively quick and easy get out of jail on both indigenous supply and green criteria.

Widescale solar voltaic is not currently economic, but a combination of rising energy prices and the development of thin film technology imminently to go into production should change that rapidly. Then expect to see widespread grid linked micro installations on houses and factories. That leaves a very large open question as to how to deal with night time requirement (true everywhere, not just Thailand). In Britain there are a couple of pump storage schemes which address this to a limited degree (lake at bottom of mountain connected via turbines and pumps to lake at top of mountain, water pumped up in the day by renewable sources and generates at night by falling back to the lower lake). I can't see it being possible to cover the whole probelem like this though. Perhaps we just have to limit high user activities to daylight hours?

For Thailand the question of trying to go self sufficient in motor fuel might well leave biofuels as king. What I'd like to see is much greater local production of diesel from palm oil for use in local farm machinery - Kubota's etc. Thai farms are already surrounded by trees for shade, no impact on productive land to replace a good proportion of these with palms and then have small scale presses to liberate the fuel.

The other key policy I'd like to see in the countryside would be the re-instatement of tree lined hedgerow feild boundaries. There has been a move round us to take many of these out recently to give more sunshine to the crops. Frequent tree barriers will become increasingly important with the expected increase in violent storms.

Chris

[Joe Walshe]

very interesting, Chris york. We may see a Chinese Forum Web site up and running to cater for the hoards of Chineese immirating to Thailand