BOT Revokes Capital Control Measure From Monday

[Naam]

Ok, what do you think will happen to the baht. If it rises, where will it stop? 30, 29, 25?

It would be more useful to monitor baht vs regional currencies. Do they rise in tandem or not? Thai exports must not be relatively more expensive, especially when the US is cutting back on consumption. They will go for cheaper stuff, quality will matter less.

Baht fell today onshore even against an allround weaker Dollar.

[Naam]

in simple terms could someone explain the 30 percent reserves?

thanx in advance

gyshown

that's water under the bridge. it does not exist anymore as of today.

[Old Man River]

Ok, what do you think will happen to the baht. If it rises, where will it stop? 30, 29, 25?

It would be more useful to monitor baht vs regional currencies. Do they rise in tandem or not? Thai exports must not be relatively more expensive, especially when the US is cutting back on consumption. They will go for cheaper stuff, quality will matter less.

Baht fell today onshore even against an allround weaker Dollar.

Do you smell smoke? One can only imagine how hard the printing presses are working now. Going forward, it will be interesting to see how the BOT handles their ever increasing amount of USD reserves.

[britmaveric]

$ is rising against the bht - interesting.

[guyshown]

in simple terms could someone explain the 30 percent reserves?

thanx in advance

gyshown

that's water under the bridge. it does not exist anymore as of today.

I understand it does not exist anymore but could some on in layman terms explain it to me? I am sure some one on TV could in a few short lines explain it to me and im sure there is plenty of other blokes on here that would like to know the ins and outs of the 30 % reserve.

thanks again

guyshown

[Plus]

It was designed to prevent short term speculative funds from flowing into the kingdom. They had to put in 30% deposit that couldn't be withdrawn for a year.

[george]

Update:

Baht continues to move in narrow range after capital control lifting

BANGKOK: -- The Thai baht continued to stay at around 31.50 to the US dollar in the Monday’s morning trading session after the Bank of Thailand’s decision to lift the 30 per cent reserve requirement took effect, according to a money dealer at Bank of Ayudhya Plc.

The dealer said the baht still moved in a narrow range near the level of last Friday’s close since the market waited to see the central bank’s contingency measures to rein in the currency volatility.

However, it is expected the baht would further appreciate because of foreign capital inflow and a dumping of the US dollar by exporters, who are afraid the baht would continue to strengthen.

Under the circumstance, the baht had an opportunity to appreciate further and break through the level of 31 to the dollar.

Charoen Iam-pattanatham of KTB Securities Co, projected more money would flow into the Stock Exchange of Thailand following the central bank’s move to end the capital control.

However, it remained to be seen whether the SET index would rise since the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged on Friday’s night and other regional markets plummeted in pursuit of the US stock market in the morning trading session.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Surapong Suebwonglee on Monday voiced confidence the baht would become stable within one week following the lifting of the capital control.

Commenting on the baht movement at around 31.50 to the dollar in the morning trading session, he said the central bank must closely supervise the currency to ensure it is stronger than other currencies in the region.

He believed investors and players in the money market would understand the situation soon and the currency volatility would ease within one week

Regarding news about the ousting of BoT’s Governor Tarisa Watanagase, he said he did not know where the news came from.

He affirmed the Finance Ministry and the central bank had coordinated performance efficiently. So, he saw "no need for a change of the central bank’s governor for now.

--TNA 2008-03-03

[Thai at Heart]

There's another angle to this topic that affects most of us -- and hasn't been widely discussed - the import of foreign goods for sale here. Why aren't those imported goods dropping in price? If big Thai retailers (e.g. Villa, Tesco, etc) are spending Thai baht to buy US beef or California importing wine (for example) sold in US Dollars, why haven't those prices been slashed on the shelf?

Instead, even some imported goods are 'climbing' in price - with the excuse that it's 'inflation or rising fuel prices' to blame.

The other argument that retailers were absorbing the currency fluctuations before and so are simply clawing back losses from when the Dollar was strong doesn't wash for me. If this issue gets raised enough (especially in the vernacular press) I hope we could see some proces drop.

(I would like to start a new topic for more discussion on this but can't in this Forum as it's a Mods only Forum).

I would forsee that over time there will be a reduction in duties on many imported goods, if the baht gets too strong. High street and capital goods attract duties here for protectionist reasons, but since when was Louis Vuitton responsible for putting Thai industry out of business.

The revenue service treat taxing imported cars as a way of getting the penny that they failed to take out of corporate tax (how many new cars on the roads are owned by companies that last year made a loss?). The whole importation tax system in Thailand is a big political football to maintain various families who have agencies and won't give them up easily but hopefully, increasing imports can take some of the pressure off the baht in the medium term.

[guyshown]

It was designed to prevent short term speculative funds from flowing into the kingdom. They had to put in 30% deposit that couldn't be withdrawn for a year.

Plus-

Thank you - I take it that the 30% was taken from the total amount invested into funds in the kingdom- Who maintained this 30 % and in what currency? WHat has been the movement of this 30 % deposit? Are investors starting to move this 30 % out of the Kinndom

Thank you again for the answer.

[Samuian]

Well, we will see more like this to come... the "boy" is back in town and he will "shake, rattle, 'n roll"... he has quite a lot on the agenda... and would love to wipe the floor with some...

And if you can't afford it, sorry, leave, if you think it's still worthwhile to afford it.. stay!

.......let'z lean back and watch the show unfolding!

Edited March 3, 2008 by Samuian

[Plus]

Thank you - I take it that the 30% was taken from the total amount invested into funds in the kingdom- Who maintained this 30 % and in what currency? WHat has been the movement of this 30 % deposit? Are investors starting to move this 30 % out of the Kinndom

I think you better look up the details yourself. The original rule has been modified several times.

Do a search either on the Internet or on Thaivisa.

For starters:

http://www.ctlo.com/BOT_Notification.htm

[Old Man River]

Total exports comprise about 60% of the economy with approx. 10% being agricultural and other labor intensive related exports. It is this category that is the most concern to the government as it directly impacts those in the PPP's voting base.

Wrong. Take the december's figures (BOT).

Add : Agriculture to fishery, forestry and mining, total = 1,71 billions USD on a total exports of 13,59 billions = 13 %.

Add : "labor intensive products" (from "manufacturing") = 1,4 billions USD

Sub total = 3,11 billions = 23 %.

But... but... look at the details for "manufacturing" group (here). It's a joke to put cement, sugar, molass, ruber into this group... along with cars.

So personaly I would add also "resources based products" (on the first table) = 1,37 billions USD more

Total = 4,48 billions = 32 % of total exports...

We can say that minimum 32 % of thai exports... are poor value added products... that monopolize the vast majority of thai labor...

Voila the reality of Thai's export engine. Fragile at least, I would say...

And we could continue this game. Actually, we could reverse the question : what is the real part of high tech and value added products from total exports ?

So it's very simple : put into the picture a currency problem, plus a decrease of the demand (global slowdown)... and you get quite an ugly perspective...

There is a good reason for the gvt (junta before, PPP now) to push on public expenses (mega projects)... They know very well that the other components of GDP are at risk :

-private consumption = flatline

-Gross fixed capital formation (new investments) = down (at least, for private)

-export = dark clouds on the horizon

-therefore, we have left only public expenses

But, of course, confident we shall be ! Samak-Thaksin will save us.

If I am following what you said above, I think you are saying that the amount of exports that are impacted by a strengthening THB is more than the figure I picked out of one of the long reports I read. On this I wouldn't have any problem believing it as I thought the figure was too low myself, but it was near midnight when I responded and I got too lazy to check their figures. While it really comes down to what one puts in these categories, at the end of the day a strengthening THB to the USD (greater than competing currencies) will have a material adverse effect on the voter base that put the PPP into power. On this, I think all reports are in agreement.

[Old Man River]

A lot are complaining about higher prices. Our current government has been making a lot of noise about bringing prices down. No one really thinks this will happen, but suppliers are fearful they will be forced to freeze their prices. To guard against this, suppliers have bumped their prices up so that if a freeze occurs, the impact will be much less.

People who suffer the most is the local thai population (not the high level politicians/army/etc.. who don't give a hoot, don't pay taxes on wine, cars ...etc) . Tell this rural population about inflation, they know what it means, tell them about debt, they definitely know what it means ... Level of debt has never been that high... there is no way out ... Thailand is not only a vassal of grander economies but Thailand is also 'managed' by sheer incompetence ... the reason why they stopped the capital control is the same as the reason why they implemented it in the place : no idea !

take your medecine and be well.

I don't think there is any escape from this, but it is human nature to try.

[cclub75]

If I am following what you said above, I think you are saying that the amount of exports that are impacted by a strengthening THB is more than the figure I picked out of one of the long reports I read.

Yes. But more than the currency issue, I wanted to emphasize that this sector was also fragile... because it's there that the majority of thai labour is employed...

So : if because of the currency issue, Thailand takes a bang effect on its exports... this will have much stronger consequences on the country (more than a trade deficit for instance) : unemployment.

[sriracha john]

End of controls tied to Thaksin's return

The timing of the removal of the capital controls casts doubt on the BOT's ability to remain independent

Now we understand more about capital controls and politics. As we all know, in politics timing is everything. Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee signalled in his first few days in office that he wanted to remove the controls. There followed a theatrical act between the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Thailand. The two bodies were trying to create the impression that they were working closely to determine the capital controls policy. Yet it was an open secret that Bank of Thailand Governor Tarisa Watanagase and her officials were strongly against removing the controls for fear that they would have their backs to the wall when it came to curbing the baht's appreciation.

After the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Thailand meeting two weeks ago, Surapong told reporters that he wanted more information from the central bank on the impact of removing the controls and other measures to cushion the Thai economy before making a decision in March or April when he would embark on an international roadshow. The opposition Democrat Party and most analysts questioned why Surapong had failed to show leadership on the capital controls. If he wanted to do it, why did he have to wait?

Surapong kept quiet. He knew exactly what he was doing.

As it turned out, Surapong was waiting for the return of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra before announcing the removal of the capital controls. Thaksin flew back to Thailand last Thursday. He announced that he would wash his hands of politics for good. But the political moves executed by the Samak government were orchestrated to coincide with Thaksin's comeback and create the impression that Thaksin was still the big boss. Tarisa had to backtrack by announcing on Friday the central bank's decision to remove the capital controls, which took effect yesterday.

The Samak government - with the shadowy Thaksin towering above - would like to send the clear signal that it will be adopting market-friendly measures. This is aimed at contrasting its policies with the poor performance of the Surayud government. Surapong will also be introducing tax measures to the Cabinet tomorrow to stimulate the domestic economy. The previous Thaksin government was good at handing out tax cuts, while squeezing out more tax revenue at the same time by shuffling money from the left pocket to the right one. And only Thaksin can do it.

Seripisut Temiyavej, the police chief, was also sacked from his office. When the Samak government came into office, the head of the Department of Special Investigation, Sunai Manomai-udom, was the first casualty. Thaksin has to reclaim the police force. Seripisut tried to save his job by agreeing to let all senior officers belonging to the Thaksin camp be transferred back to their powerful posts. Still, Seripisut could not save his coveted position.

Then can Tarisa save her job? Surapong said an interview with Matichon that he had no intention of sacking Tarisa as rumoured. He said he could work well with the governor.

But the people in the financial markets have been speculating that it's only a matter of time before Tarisa is removed. Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala, the secretary-general of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has emerged as a top candidate for the job. Thirachai was a central banker before he took the top position at the SEC. Thirachai has political ambition. He will be working well with Surapong's advisers, none of whom like Tarisa.

During the Thaksin government's term, MR Pridiyathorn Devakula, the central bank governor, was able to carve out the central bank's independence. With his glowing stature, Thaksin found it impossible to remove Pridiyathorn. The Samak government, in which Surapong has become one of the most powerful ministers because of his direct contact with Thaksin, might not want history to repeat itself. It remains to be seen how long it will tolerate the independence of the central bank, which has been conservative in combating inflation. But the Samak government is pursuing a pro-growth policy in full force, aiming to achieve a high economic growth rate of 6 per cent. But this high growth rate would come at a cost. With inflationary pressure, we need an independent central bank to manage inflation. It is fine that the capital controls have now been removed, but we can't afford to sacrifice an independent monetary policy.

- The Nation

[warriors]

Thank you - I take it that the 30% was taken from the total amount invested into funds in the kingdom- Who maintained this 30 % and in what currency? WHat has been the movement of this 30 % deposit? Are investors starting to move this 30 % out of the Kinndom

I think you better look up the details yourself. The original rule has been modified several times.

Do a search either on the Internet or on Thaivisa.

For starters:

http://www.ctlo.com/BOT_Notification.htm

In laymans terms if an individule such as a retired person living over here brought in more than 500,000 bhat in one hit he was suppose to have to leave 30% of the 500,001 bhat in the bank for one year and not touch it. So most would bring it in in 2 or 3 different times over one week.

So say in the case of me as a retired person living in Thailand I am expected to bring in to Thailand and show the Thai Government not less than 800,000 baht a year. So I would bring it in in 2 differnt lots of 400,000 and not have to tie up any 30%.

Hope that explains it better for you.

Edited March 4, 2008 by warriors

[Old Man River]

If I am following what you said above, I think you are saying that the amount of exports that are impacted by a strengthening THB is more than the figure I picked out of one of the long reports I read.

Yes. But more than the currency issue, I wanted to emphasize that this sector was also fragile... because it's there that the majority of thai labour is employed...

So : if because of the currency issue, Thailand takes a bang effect on its exports... this will have much stronger consequences on the country (more than a trade deficit for instance) : unemployment.

OK, got it now. If it happens it will mean more giveaways in the rural areas. The real mountain to climb for this government is whether it can achieve a sustainable increase in farm income instead of just throwing money into the rural economy as occurred previously.

[hongkongfuey1270]

These newbie's with their stupid comments obviously don't know that the Thai baht is the World fastest growing currency…why are you talking about the $...it is NOT only the $ that's getting stuffed by the Baht

Remember Taxin has come home to collect his $1.8 billion ...possibly he want's it in Baht LOL

Call me thick but my interpretation of the strengthening baht is advantageous for ex-pats who already have built,bought there properties when they where enjoying 74 or 75 to the UK pound.It adds up to me we have made money now its at 61-62.

Eg.4years ago I was buying a house at 6 million baht which equated to -£81,000 or so at an exchange of 74 baht to the pound

Now selling the same house at 6 million I would receive £98,000 or so at an exchange of 61 baht to the pound,now theres a profit,would like to receive comments.

Paul

[Garry]

I remember back in 2000 when the dollar was a lot stronger against the baht: roughly BAHT47 to USD1. Too bad I get paid in US dollars in the Middle East, getting a 33 odd percent hit is enevitable but I'm hoping for either a payrise or a healthier dollar. Okay I'll take off the rose coloured sunglasses :lol

[Plus]

"'... between December 31 and February 29, the baht had strengthened from 33.68 a dollar to 31.52, up 6.4 per cent.

At the same time, the Chinese yuan went up 3 per cent, the Indonesian rupiah 3.3 per cent, the Malaysian ringgit 3.5 per cent, the Philippines peso 1.7 per cent and the Singapore dollar 3 per cent.''

and

"We think a sub-30 trading range for the baht is now a strong possibility in the near term, particularly if we extrapolate this morning's session wherein market sentiment responded favourably to removal of the curbs," Jun Trinidad of Citibank said in the bank's report released yesterday."

Doesn't look too good for exporters.

http://nationmultimedia.com/2008/03/05/hea...es_30067231.php