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Rice Climbs To Record As World Bank Warns Of Thai Export Risk


LaoPo

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none of the articles explain why supply is down so far from last year?

Vietnam had a partial crop failure.

so just a fluke and will be back to normal in a year

http://www.newsweek.com/id/130641

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/080320/afp/0803...acificnews.html

No one knows, but the prices should be expected to reduce somewhat. But these markets are very volatile and a failure in only one major market is enough to create this problem. 2 or 3 at once and all hel_l could break loose.

Lets not forget China just had one of the most unseasonal cold snaps in its history a few months ago. The story is quiet now, but that was the time period when many seedlings for all sorts of veg were being prepared under plastic. Prepare for the price of a lot of veg to start coming under pressure soon.

We need to get used to this type of volatility and the world needs to stop turning land over for biofuels.

Furthermore, the powers that be need to make sure that this price rise feeds down to the fields to make sure that farmers are rewarded for their labour and given every assistance to insure good yields.

And as for GMO, well Frankenfoods are probably our only long term hope.

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none of the articles explain why supply is down so far from last year?

There is no simple 'why' and 'answer' but these links give a better view of the total world situation what food and rice is concerned:

The cost of food: Facts and Figures

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7284196.stm

World Food Situation:

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/

Countries in Crisis:

http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/ai465e/ai465e02.htm

The FAO Rice Price Update - April 2008

post-13995-1209038258_thumb.png

post-13995-1209038365_thumb.png Export prices for Rice including THAI Rice prices; click to enlarge

http://www.fao.org/es/ESC/en/15/70/highlight_533.html

LaoPo

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The fact is that the world population is reaching the point of unsustainability. The increased use of fuel as well as the need for food is creating an untenable situation. Factor in climate change and normal climate variations and you have a potentially serious situation.

For example, think about water. The water that is used to irrigate in Thailand is now largely controlled by dams in China. As they use and hoard more water (and possibly pollute the rest), this can effect crops in Thailand and further down in Cambodia and Vietnam. Much of the Middle East is in a similar situation and these situations could get quite volatile.

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Certainly there will be a few more Benz sold upcountry this year.

You are perhaps implying, quite falsely by the way, that farmers are the ones benefiting from these high prices? The bulk of the increased profits are going to the families that, in effect, control the rice exporting cartel in Bangkok, and rest assured they are already driving such automobiles. Some of the profit might find its way into Thailand, but most will never enter the Kingdom but rather will be places into offshore accounts.

Chaiyo!

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Certainly there will be a few more Benz sold upcountry this year.

You are perhaps implying, quite falsely by the way, that farmers are the ones benefiting from these high prices? The bulk of the increased profits are going to the families that, in effect, control the rice exporting cartel in Bangkok, and rest assured they are already driving such automobiles. Some of the profit might find its way into Thailand, but most will never enter the Kingdom but rather will be places into offshore accounts.

Chaiyo!

Only a few and a very select few

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dont worry about human populations, eventually they will reach a point where they stop growing. check the birth rate in europe/usa vs third world.

Unfortunately, you're wrong...VERY wrong.

In 1900 the world population existed of 1,65 Billion people...

2008: 6,65 Billion....

That's 6 Billion people in a mere 100 years... :o

post-13995-1209070812_thumb.png

Read this too if you like......:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

post-13995-1209071387_thumb.png Map of countries by population for the year 2007

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population List of countries by population; Thailand is on the list as # 20

LaoPo

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The fact is that the world population is reaching the point of unsustainability. The increased use of fuel as well as the need for food is creating an untenable situation. Factor in climate change and normal climate variations and you have a potentially serious situation.

Nonsense.

Any problems associated with food supply are caused by government intrusion, period, end of story. As a poster on the first page correctly said, US and UK government have long paid people not to grow and subsidized growing one crop in favor of another.

One net result is government-corporate corruption, such as with ADM in the US. The governments should stay out, let farmers grow what they want to grow, and sell it for the best price they can obtain from the market.

In places like Africa, the governments are too corrupt to allow people to fend for themselves. Countries once loaded with surplus produce now have rampant starvation. With reduction in government corruption, modest investments in electricity, desalination plants and irrigation, the starving countries in Africa would be able to grow more than enough food to support their populations.

In the context of this topic, the only factor related to climate change is the fear factor.

The Japanes people have long paid world high prices for rice? Why? There is one and only one reason. Because the national government subsidizes a modest inefficient domestic rice growing industry and places heavy tariffs on imported rice. This is evidence of what I said above. Excessive pricing of basic commodities is caused by one and one reason, excessive government intervention.

This latest business with rice is already being taken out of perspective and proportion. These prices have to do with futures purchasing on the national and global commodities markets, not with local and regional markets. In short, bettors are gambling now that the prices will go up later, just as with gold, oil and other commodities. The way to make these bettors lose is to increase production and increase freedom of trade and distribution.

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Does any one here know how much the Thai rice farmer gets paid per kg?

Are there any nationwide statistics in english around to read?

I don't know, but I'm sure there will be members here who have family as rice farmers.

This is a link for Rice EXPORT prices supplied by The Rice Exporters Association

http://www.riceexporters.or.th/price.htm

Statistics:

http://www.riceexporters.or.th/List_%20of_statistic.htm

LaoPo

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dont worry about human populations, eventually they will reach a point where they stop growing. check the birth rate in europe/usa vs third world.

Unfortunately, you're wrong...VERY wrong.

In 1900 the world population existed of 1,65 Billion people...

2008: 6,65 Billion....

That's 6 Billion people in a mere 100 years... :o

post-13995-1209070812_thumb.png

Read this too if you like......:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

post-13995-1209071387_thumb.png Map of countries by population for the year 2007

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population List of countries by population; Thailand is on the list as # 20

LaoPo

Perhaps it is time to implement Operation Soylent Green. We'll start with the rich. Their sedentary lifestyle means they are tender. :D

Edited by Jamie
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bad, just bad for countries dependent on rice import like mine...

but the good thing about this, is that a rice crisis like this is just the jolt PH needs. i believe, this country can well produce sufficient rice it needs. just better support for agriculture, more efficient systems, change of mentality that agriculture is a job for the poor, less educated, and those with no ambitions (yes! white collar jobs are always desired here -- never mind if you have to work in a polluted, crowded, stressful city and with cost of living so much higher than your income) and less laziness...

Aries, I agree that the PI has the climate, the land mass and the workers to become far more self-sufficient in its rice production. What has been lacking is the governmental push and the necessary infrastructure to make it happen. All you hear from GA and her administration is that they will send rice horders to prison. Since the primary rice horders will probably be the crooked politicians that surround GA, it will be interesting to see if she will follow through with her threats.

not really the time to do the blame game here. if we have to, we would be blaming the past administrations as well which supported the policy of rice-importing than rice sufficiency. where did you hear about rice hoarders being sent to prison? i read news and watch it here, i don't know about it.

i happen to graduate from the this university which is famous for "teaching the thais to plant rice"... i did not take an agricultural course but a semi-environmental, btw.

anyway, one thing i can say how thais became more successful from their filipino teachers? the agricultural graduates of thailand (and india, lots of them when i attended college in the 80s) came home and taught their expertise to the farmers. the filipino agricultural graduates however went out to apply for jobs like marketing executives for agribusiness products like selling fertilizers, pesticides etc. with their cars, cozy makati offices, and other perks. but at whose expense?

population explosion (hey we are now 89 million strong!!! :o ) is also getting a big whipping. how much is thailand? there was a time i think our population was just about the same...

but as i have said, it is not the time to be blaming anybody anymore. if all those people lying all day and feeling sorry for themselves and criticizing whatever would start picking some spade, and planting whatever, they'll be healthier, happier and too tired to think of making more babies!!!!

good morning all!

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dude check the birth rates in europe and the other developed first world countries. its accpeted among scientists that populations will peak and remain steady.

I'm not sure if you're addressing your words to me, but if so, please submit some facts, links or the 'accepted' studies from your scientists.

I'm most interested WHEN the world populations will peak and remain steady.

Will that be around 7, 8, 9 or (God forbid...) 10 Billion ?

The projection is 9,2 Billion by 2050...is that your peak ?

Written words without facts will blow away with the Thai wind... :o

LaoPo

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yeah, this is off the wiki page you linked

Other projections of population growth predict that the world's population will eventually crest, though it is uncertain exactly when or how. In some scenarios, the population will crest as early as the mid-21st century at under 9 billion, due to gradually decreasing birth rates, (the "low variant" of [3]), The "high variant" from the same source gives a population between 10 and 11 billion in 2050.

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The fact is that the world population is reaching the point of unsustainability. The increased use of fuel as well as the need for food is creating an untenable situation. Factor in climate change and normal climate variations and you have a potentially serious situation.

Nonsense.

Any problems associated with food supply are caused by government intrusion, period, end of story. As a poster on the first page correctly said, US and UK government have long paid people not to grow and subsidized growing one crop in favor of another.

One net result is government-corporate corruption, such as with ADM in the US. The governments should stay out, let farmers grow what they want to grow, and sell it for the best price they can obtain from the market.

In places like Africa, the governments are too corrupt to allow people to fend for themselves. Countries once loaded with surplus produce now have rampant starvation. With reduction in government corruption, modest investments in electricity, desalination plants and irrigation, the starving countries in Africa would be able to grow more than enough food to support their populations.

In the context of this topic, the only factor related to climate change is the fear factor.

The Japanes people have long paid world high prices for rice? Why? There is one and only one reason. Because the national government subsidizes a modest inefficient domestic rice growing industry and places heavy tariffs on imported rice. This is evidence of what I said above. Excessive pricing of basic commodities is caused by one and one reason, excessive government intervention.

This latest business with rice is already being taken out of perspective and proportion. These prices have to do with futures purchasing on the national and global commodities markets, not with local and regional markets. In short, bettors are gambling now that the prices will go up later, just as with gold, oil and other commodities. The way to make these bettors lose is to increase production and increase freedom of trade and distribution.

Indeed.

The bloody EU CAP policy and the structure of the US agri market has been a political mess for ever. Farmers in the EU now can get a subsidy for land management, i.e. cutting hedges and grass!!

Fortunately, agri commodity markets have the potential to turn around very quickly if countries get and farmers get organised. Farmers chase the $$$ so these buggars messing with the futures market will probably face a market of over supply next year. Hopefully.

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The world's population is getting fatter at an alarming rate. There is no shortage of food, just a population lost in gluttony! If everyone made it a point to get down to a decent weight, food shortages would disappear. This is clearly a very important personal health issue that the media is making out to be a food industry problem.

The biggest problem is actually wastage and spoilage of agricultural produce during transport and storage (on the order of 30% for a lot of agricultural produce, especially the 'fresh' stuff).

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This is huge news - this could change the economy of Thailand forever.

With a tremendous increase in the selling price, we will likely see the same changes that other countries have gone through - inflation and rapid changes to the society.

We are planning to come to live in Thailand in late 2008 or 2009 - it would be interesting to follow the effects of this change as they develop. Does anyone have any forecast on what should happen?

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Meanwhile... :o

Rice Shortage Roils San Francisco Stores, Markets, Food Banks

By Ryan Flinn

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- A group of shoppers came into Farmer Joe's Marketplace in Oakland one morning this week and bought all the 50-pound bags of rice. A few miles away at Berkeley Bowl Marketplace, long-grain rice is sold out.

``Our distributors can't get any,'' said Kirk Tamaki, 56, Berkeley Bowl's Asian food buyer. ``Short grain is all we have.''

A global rice shortage that has forced China and Vietnam to curb overseas sales of the food staple has reached the San Francisco Bay Area, home of one of the largest concentrations of Asian-Americans in the U.S. Stores, restaurants and food banks report dwindling supplies, and retail prices are rising.

Peter Seith, 43, Berkeley Bowl Marketplace's bulk foods manager, said he recently visited his girlfriend in the Philippines, the world's largest importer of rice last year. Prices there have doubled, he said.

``We haven't seen that here yet,'' he said. ``But we're anticipating it.''

The price of a 20-pound bag of short-grain rice at the store has increased to $15.15, up 76 percent from $8.59 last week, said customer service representative Culyon Garrison.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, rice has reached a record high 14 times this month, including yesterday, when futures for July delivery hit $25.07 per 100 pounds. They closed at $24.32.

To combat hoarding, Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s Sam's Club has limited purchases of jasmine, basmati and long-grain white rice to four bags a visit in all U.S. stores.

Buying Restrictions

A Costco Wholesale Corp. store in San Francisco this week limited rice purchases to five bags per customer. Later in the week, on April 23, the outlet reduced that number to two.

Lorette Mopannam, a shopper at the Costco store, asked a passing worker about the restriction.

``I never tried this rice, but I'm going to,'' she said, after not finding her normal brand among the dwindling bags in front of her.

Restaurant Depot, a wholesale company that supplies San Francisco restaurants, is limiting rice purchases to 10 bags a customer, said Thanh Pham, a manager at its San Jose location. ``Every single type of rice is gone right now,'' Pham said.

Mary Cheng, manager of the Pot Sticker restaurant, which serves Hunan, Szechwan and Mandarin fare in an alleyway in Chinatown and gets some of its rice from Restaurant Depot, lamented the shortage.

``Before, they had many kinds of rice,'' she said.

Social Unrest

The record prices of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans this year have spurred social unrest in Haiti, Egypt and other countries. The higher commodities prices are also pushing up U.S. food prices and spurring inflation. The consumer price index climbed 0.3 percent in March, after no change in the prior month, the Labor Department said April 16.

Nick Balzamit, manager of Baladie Gourmet Cafe, a Middle Eastern restaurant, also noticed the recent price increase.

``Yeah, what's the deal with that?'' he said. ``Jasmine rice, we checked for it at Sam's Club and Costco in Sacramento and they didn't have it.''

``I'd better go shopping,'' said Rita Abraldes, owner of Paladar, a Cuban café in San Francisco, which uses 40 to 50 pounds of rice a week.

Limits on rice purchases will be felt the most in California and Texas, which have large Asian and Mexican populations whose diets rely on rice, said food consultant Jim Degen, principal of J.M. Degen & Co. in Templeton, California.

About 32 percent of San Francisco's 744,000 people are of Asian ancestry, and 14 percent are Hispanic, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Charitable Groups

The shortage is affecting Bay Area charitable organizations, who say the number of people seeking meals has increased just as supplies are tightening. The San Francisco Food Bank will distribute some rice from recently received truckloads it agreed to purchase last year, though the price volatility means future stocks could decrease.

``Our pantry manager is very concerned,'' said Francis Aviani, spokeswoman for the St. Anthony Foundation, which serves about 2,600 free meals a day in the city's Tenderloin neighborhood. The shelter doles out about 3,000 pounds of rice a month.

``Rice is a significant portion of what we serve,'' Aviani said. ``We're covered until the truck is empty, and then we don't know.''

---Bloomberg Exclusive Report

LaoPo

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Farm land for growing rice is currently changing hands for about 30,000 baht a rai where I live, up from 7,000 a few years ago, so it seems the locals expect to make more money from their future rice crops. It will be interesting to see what we get this year for a 25Kg bag of Kao Jao, I doubt the full price rise will be passed down to the farmers, maybe this will lead to hoarding here also.

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I expect the futures price exporters lock in now, for November deliveries of rice, will be significantly higher than the spot price that growers will be getting at that time. Presumably, as in prior years, growers will be in debt at the end of the season. The problem this year is, their expectations of higher prices may lead to even greater indebtedness. If the price doesn't hold up they're fuc_ked.

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There is doubt that Malthusian population increases will continue in the 21st century. See the chart, below, from that article in wikipedia, to see the drastic decrease in world-wide birth rates.

However, the devil and the horsemen of the apocalypse are in the details. Many developed nations already have negative growth rates, and the least developed countries have some of the highest rates. Three countries of Africa will outnumber all of Europe in 42 more years, according to the predictions which are really guesses.

Regardless, there will be acute shortages of food, including rice.

post-12516-1209131729.png

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Here in the US there is a great deal of hording occurring. Asian restaurant owners are purchasing up to a years supply of rice to secure supplies. And a few families I know have stored several 25kg bags of rice into their newest pantry, their garage.

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Rice Falls From Record as Thailand, Brazil Will Not Limit Sales

By Jae Hur and Marianne Stigset

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Rice prices tumbled in Chicago after reaching a record yesterday, as Thailand and Brazil said they won't curb exports and Pakistan announced plans to sell the cereal, easing concern about a global supply shortage.

Thailand, the world's biggest exporter of rice, has no plans to limit rice exports, Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee said today. Brazil's Agriculture Minister Reinhold Stephanes said yesterday the country wouldn't curb exports. Pakistan plans to export 2.5 million metric tons this year, farm minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali said yesterday.

Rice, the food staple for half the world, has more than doubled in a year as China, Vietnam and Egypt curbed sales to safeguard domestic reserves. The gains have spurred social unrest in countries including Haiti and Egypt and prompted Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s Sam's Club to limit rice purchases to four bags a visit in all U.S. stores.

``Concerns that Thailand will limit rice exports are easing now,'' Kazuhiko Saito, a strategist at Interes Capital Management Co. in Tokyo, said by phone today.

Rough rice for July delivery fell as much as the daily maximum of 75 cents, or 3.1 percent, to $23.57 per 100 pounds in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade and stood at $23.665 at midday in London. The contract fell 1.7 percent this week, the first decline in five weeks. The most active contract reached a record $25.07 yesterday.

Dollar Rally

The dollar rose 1.3 percent yesterday against the euro on increasing speculation the Federal Reserve will stop cutting interest rates. Rice's 14-day relative strength index, a gauge of momentum, had held above 70 since April 14, signaling prices may decline.

Japan, which is self-sufficient in rice, will delay seeking imports of the grain required under a World Trade Organization agreement until international prices stabilize, a government official said yesterday. The country imported 630,550 tons of rice in the year ended March 31, part of a WTO agreement to seek 770,000 tons.

``Japan's move will encourage South Korea to follow suit and this will definitely help ease supply tightness in the market,'' Saito said. The two countries import about a combined 1 million tons a year, he said.

Continues here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...fer=commodities

LaoPo

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Rice price surge frustrates and puzzles Asians

Fri Apr 25, 2008 12:12pm EDT

post-13995-1209164401_thumb.jpg A girl plays as she sits atop sacks of rice in a warehouse in Kanchanaburi, west of Bangkok, April 24, 2008.

By Carmel Crimmins

MANILA (Reuters) - From the airconditioned supermarkets of Tokyo to the open-air stalls of Manila reactions across Asia to record leaps in the price of rice vary from fear and frustration to a nonplussed shrug of the shoulders.

Fried, boiled or steamed, rice is synonymous with food in this region but with wide disparities in national wealth and paddy output, Asian consumers are differently affected by prices of Thai grain hitting $1,000 a tonne.

In the Philippines, Indonesia and Bangladesh, three of the top four world rice importers with millions of poor between them, some people are having to scrimp on already meager budgets and skip meals to ensure they can still feed their families a daily helping of the cereal.

"What can I do? Rice prices soar, we have to follow them," said Rudin, a 28-year-old shopper in Indonesia's capital, Jakarta adding he was not in a position to pile up stocks because he had limited income.

Experts say there are signs the dramatic international price situation may improve in the months ahead as more harvests hit markets and importers ease back on purchases.

A near tripling in the world benchmark, Thai 100 percent B grade wide rice, was triggered after exporting nations curbed shipments to cool domestic inflation.

Prices on most local Asian markets have not jumped as much either because countries are self-sufficient in rice or because importing nations only need to buy a fraction of national demand and subsidize those purchases to poor consumers.

But local prices have still risen significantly and while they wait for them to ease, many Asians have little choice but to tighten their belts or queue in the tropical heat to buy cheap government stocks of the grain.

"We have to stand on the line for up to six hours to grab a bagful of rice. Often we go back empty handed as supplies run out," said Mariam Begum, who works as a house maid in the Bangladeshi capital Dhaka.

"To stand in the queue, I take half-day leave every day from my employers and have also brought my only son out of school to stand in another queue," said the 45-year old mother of four.

NO PANIC

With the exception of Bangladesh, where some factory workers went on the rampage this month, Asian consumers have not taken to the streets to vent their frustration at the rising cost of food and fuel.

And with rice prices starting to ease in some countries, the hope is that the situation, which has been volatile in parts of Africa and in Haiti, will remain calm in Asia.

"Personally, I don't see panic," said Kazuyuki Tsurumi, the representative of the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in the Philippines.

The FAO has said that food riots will spread in developing countries unless world leaders take major steps to reduce prices.

"There's really no rice supply shortage," said Liza Balarit, a rice retailer at a public market in Manila. "Only a shortage of money to buy it."

In affluent countries such as South Korea and Singapore, many people are able and willing to absorb price increases rather than cut back on their favorite staple.

In Japan, some budget-conscious consumers are even turning to home-grown rice, which because of various government programs has a fairly stable price, in the face of soaring costs for imported grains such as wheat, which is pushing up the cost of bread, beer and noodles.

"These days I am using more rice in our meals, along with some fish and miso soup, because bread and pasta have become too expensive," said one Japanese housewife.

In China, a net rice exporter, some people are even unaware that the grain has hit a record high on world markets.

"I am not going to hoard any rice, prices are very stable here," said Mr Hu, an office worker in Beijing.

"Is the international price at a record high? I didn't even know that."

---Reuters

LaoPo

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Rice Falls From Record as Thailand, Brazil Will Not Limit Sales

April 25 (Bloomberg) --

Japan, which is self-sufficient in rice, will delay seeking imports of the grain required under a World Trade Organization agreement until international prices stabilize, a government official said yesterday. The country imported 630,550 tons of rice in the year ended March 31, part of a WTO agreement to seek 770,000 tons.

Japan is "self-sufficient in rice" but imports 630k tons? Sounds like just a bit of a contradiction.

"... believe none of what you hear and only half of what you see ..." comes to mind.

And <deleted> does the WTO have to do messing around with international commerce? Just another government sponsored bureacracy getting in the way.

US rice production alone has risen by more than 25% in the last 15 years and could probably be high if the government got out of the way. And the US exports about 40% of the crop. This shortage is a work of fiction, drawn up by the commodity industry. There is no shortage in the US. There likely is no shortage in the rest of the world either.

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Rice Falls From Record as Thailand, Brazil Will Not Limit Sales

April 25 (Bloomberg) --

Japan, which is self-sufficient in rice, will delay seeking imports of the grain required under a World Trade Organization agreement until international prices stabilize, a government official said yesterday. The country imported 630,550 tons of rice in the year ended March 31, part of a WTO agreement to seek 770,000 tons.

Japan is "self-sufficient in rice" but imports 630k tons? Sounds like just a bit of a contradiction.

"... believe none of what you hear and only half of what you see ..." comes to mind.

And <deleted> does the WTO have to do messing around with international commerce? Just another government sponsored bureacracy getting in the way.

US rice production alone has risen by more than 25% in the last 15 years and could probably be high if the government got out of the way. And the US exports about 40% of the crop. This shortage is a work of fiction, drawn up by the commodity industry. There is no shortage in the US. There likely is no shortage in the rest of the world either.

There are shortages of certain types. Some are sold as pure origin, but a lot of the stuff is blended for flavour.

As for the WTO, without them around, you would be paying a hel_l of a lot more for Thai rice in the US or EU, if they hadn't stuck their nose into the scandal of protectionism that has been going on for decades concerning subsidies and protectionism.

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