Thailand's Plummeting Birth Rate May Slow Development

[sbk]

Thailand's plummeting birth rate may slow development

BANGKOK, May 2 (TNA) – Thailand's birth rate 2008 was reported to be alarmingly low due to overly exerted contraception, revealed Director-General of the Department of Health Dr. Narongsak Angkhasuwaphla.

Dr. Narongsak, presiding at a conference on Communication and Reproductive Health Services, said Thailand's current birth rate in 2008 was only 1.5 per cent, lower than the targeted minimum of 2 per cent, or two children per household.

It is expected Thailand's rate of birth may decline to be as low as 1.45 per cent in 2025—a dramatic fall compared to 1965 which saw a peak of 6.8 per cent per household.

Such a decline in birth frequency has caused concern as potentially affecting the country's overall development due to the pending inadequacy of human resources to meet the country's future economic need.

However, Dr. Narongsak revealed 2008 nonetheless saw an over-satisfactory rate of birth control at 81 per cent—a markedly high rate of birth compared to 1978, when only 53.4 per cent of Thai women practiced contraception. The statistical data also shows that the prevention of pregnancy among women with financial security is higher than among poor women. (TNA)-E007

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[NduguChancellor]

And this is bad?

[The Vulcan]

Is this somehow linked with the recent report on the Thai orgasm failure/faking?

If I remember the Thai women were turning to other women for their gratifications - this would sure slow down the birth rate!

Edited May 2, 2008 by The Vulcan

[Scott]

I think this has to do with use of birth control, not with orgasms--but it's an interesting point. Another point is that 40% of HIV cases now are married women getting it from their husband, so apparently condoms isn't the method of birth control most frequently used.

Demographically, the drop in birth rate means that they will end up with a larger % of older people and fewer young people to work and/or support them. This could be a BIG problem in Thailand, with a relatively underdeveloped social security/welfare system.

The other point is that as the birth rate drops, it is VERY important that a lot of emphasis be put on education, since it is important to have a highly educated work force to help provide higher incomes caused by few workers. Thus far, I don't know if the educational system is really prepared for helping the society advance as it needs too.

But as a last resort, they can continue to prop up the Junta Generals of Burma, which guarantees a steady flow of young, unskilled workers!!

[PeaceBlondie]

The other point is that as the birth rate drops, it is VERY important that a lot of emphasis be put on education, since it is important to have a highly educated work force to help provide higher incomes caused by few workers. Thus far, I don't know if the educational system is really prepared for helping the society advance as it needs too.

But as a last resort, they can continue to prop up the Junta Generals of Burma, which guarantees a steady flow of young, unskilled workers!!

Actually, in most late-developing countries, it is precisely the lower birth rate that allows more money to be spent on the students, and fewer students leaving school early to work on the farm or in the factory. And it is typical then to rely on cheap, exploited foreign labor for the hewers of wood and carriers of water.

[Scott]

Right you are PB. My concern is that Thailand may make some detours that would best not be made. I don't see some of the advances that they should be making in education at this stage of their development.

I think the thread about students hair cuts and wearing their uniforms in an inappropriate manner reflect that. However, the progression you speak of generally seems to happen in spite of (rather than because of) officials, so maybe hope springs eternal hear. I am not holding my breath, but glad to hear your more optimistic!

[geriatrickid]

The chickens have come home to roost.

As far back as 1990, hundreds of scholarly studies were published all predicting that unless HIV was contained, there would be a serious impact upon the economy of Thailand. Rhucharoenpornpanich and Chamratrithirong predicted the current scenario raised by Dr. Narongsak in their paper A Demographic Impact of AIDS on the Thai population, published in the Asia-Pacific Population Journal. 2001 Sep;16(3):71-88.

Abstract: This paper provides estimates and projections of the impact of AIDS on the Thai population. It projects the important demographic parameters of population size and annual growth. In addition, mortality indicators such as the crude death rate, age-specific death rate, infant mortality rate, child mortality rate (1-4 years), and life expectancy at birth are projected. These projections are made by comparing the two scenarios: in the absence of AIDS, and with AIDS. Overall, it is noted that HIV prevalence in Thailand is declining compared to African countries. However, even with this low level of HIV prevalence (not more than 2%), the impact is large, partly because most of those infected are within the reproductive age group. AIDS kills prime-age adults, many of whom are at the peak of their economic productivity. Thus, it affects the productivity and efficiency of low- and semi-skilled workers and creates labor shortages. Moreover, AIDS is the cause not only of orphanhood but also of a decrease in human resource development in children, in terms of both physical and psychosocial aspects, as well as a decline in nutritional status, a reduction in schooling and an increase in the numbers of street children. In conclusion, the projections revealed that the human and social costs of AIDS are enormous, even at relatively low levels of prevalence. (Note: This paper was published prior to the now acknowledged increase in HIV infection rates. These increased rates, have negated the population benefits derived from the greater access to treatment.)

There would not be as severe a demographic issue if HIV (and TB) was contained. When you remove the portion of the population best suited to reproduce and replenish the workforce, then obviously it will make a dent in the workforce and the economy. In fairness to the current government, Dr. Narongsak served under the former military government's minister of health Dr. Mongkol Na Songkhla.

[jayjayjayjay]

And this is bad?

I dont know, but I sure am willing to help out any way I can.........5555555555

and to Scott, how can you draw a line between these two, "But as a last resort, they can continue to prop up the Junta Generals of Burma, which guarantees a steady flow of young, unskilled workers!!" I'm not really sure what your trying to say here!

Edited May 3, 2008 by jayjayjayjay

[Smithson]

The other point is that as the birth rate drops, it is VERY important that a lot of emphasis be put on education, since it is important to have a highly educated work force to help provide higher incomes caused by few workers. Thus far, I don't know if the educational system is really prepared for helping the society advance as it needs too.

But as a last resort, they can continue to prop up the Junta Generals of Burma, which guarantees a steady flow of young, unskilled workers!!

I'm sure they'll continue exploiting the Burmese workers, but can't see much hope in terms of education. Alot of ppl believe the elite Thais, those educated overseas, don't want to improve the domestic education system as it's not in their interests. This makes sense, but will lead to big problems for the country in the future.

[Seneque]

And this is bad?

The problem (if there is any) is not quantity .. it is quality !

I know of a few very qualified/educated thai girls that cannot find proper job/salary .... because they have no connections ! Perhaps less 'connected' kids on the market will give an opportunity to the 'non-connected' ones, and that is good ...

[jonniebkk]

Sounds like a rehash of the alarm in Bangkok society ladies a couple years ago when there were again published reports of low birthrates among the women in Issan. They were very concerned about where they would get there servants in the future!

[Thai at Heart]

Sounds like a rehash of the alarm in Bangkok society ladies a couple years ago when there were again published reports of low birthrates among the women in Issan. They were very concerned about where they would get there servants in the future!

A dose of wage inflation in the medium term would be a very good thing for the lowest paid.

[Scott]

jayjayjay: I was being facetious with the comment about the Burmese. However, in the long run, as the birth-rate drops, they may have to rely on imported labor to keep the economy going, especially if they are relying on cheap labor for manufacturing. If they are going to rely on the higher-end service sector, then they will have to invest a fair amount in education.

I might add that they will also have to take a careful look at education in general. But that said, I am always amazed at how 'backwards' education nearly everywhere is and how kids manage to learn in spite of it.

[AussieFarang]

I call on everyone to do whatever they can to help increase this declining birth rate.

Anyone who's lived here for a while sure knows the Thai gene pool can do with a bit of a shakeup.

[Seneque]

I call on everyone to do whatever they can to help increase this declining birth rate.

Anyone who's lived here for a while sure knows the Thai gene pool can do with a bit of a shakeup.

seems like a racist comment to me ...

For your sake I hope you are joking

[Tony Clifton]

When I first came here, I couldn't believe the amount of pregnant Thai women one could see in a day. It's hasn't changed 5 years later. My wife and 3 neighbours in a row were pregnant at the same time once on our street, meanwhile there were 3 more were across the street from us. When my son was born, this question came around on the forum and I asked our doctor, head of department, who said that births are definitely on the rise at his hospital, fluctuates between 350 to 500 a month.

[zaphodbeeblebrox]

Such a decline in birth frequency has caused concern as potentially affecting the country's overall development due to the pending inadequacy of human resources to meet the country's future economic need.

My understanding is that Thailand has, within the last few decades, gone from being an underpopulated country to an overpopulated country. Most developed nations with declining birth rates use immigration to bolster their labor force. Rather than try to get young people to breed like rabbits, maybe the government should take a fresh look at its immigration policy, and avert another smuggled workforce massacre.

[PeaceBlondie]

When I first came here, I couldn't believe the amount of pregnant Thai women one could see in a day. It's hasn't changed 5 years later. My wife and 3 neighbours in a row were pregnant at the same time once on our street, meanwhile there were 3 more were across the street from us. When my son was born, this question came around on the forum and I asked our doctor, head of department, who said that births are definitely on the rise at his hospital, fluctuates between 350 to 500 a month.

Yes Tony, I remember your comment to the population explosion in your corner of Thailand. Unless there is a sudden boom that has not shown up in the latest stats, it appears your observation is an anamoly, or an umbilical. Here in Chiang Mai, the pregnant women are not at all obvious. As the father of six and grandfather of ten, I tend to notice such things.

A falling birth rate is typical of developing countries, as shown by Thailand, Mexico, and China.

[geriatrickid]

I call on everyone to do whatever they can to help increase this declining birth rate.

Anyone who's lived here for a while sure knows the Thai gene pool can do with a bit of a shakeup.

seems like a racist comment to me ...

For your sake I hope you are joking

He was, jeez. However, he isn't that far off the mark. Populations that do not allow for the natural introduction of different genetic traits are suseptible to inbreeding and a greater incidence of genetic error manifestations. One need only look at the various "royal" families of europe to see the results. A variety of genetic makeups allows a population to be more resilient and resistant to bacteria, fungi and viruses that are constantly mutating.

[astral]

The chickens have come home to roost.

As far back as 1990, hundreds of scholarly studies were published all predicting that unless HIV was contained, there would be a serious impact upon the economy of Thailand. Rhucharoenpornpanich and Chamratrithirong predicted the current scenario raised by Dr. Narongsak in their paper A Demographic Impact of AIDS on the Thai population, published in the Asia-Pacific Population Journal. 2001 Sep;16(3):71-88.

And how is this relevant to a declining birthrate?