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I Have A Strange Feeling


mumbu

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Consider recent events:

1. Court announces that verdict will be rended on Pojaman tax evasion trial on July 31

2. Thaksin banned from leaving the country

3. Samak reports about possible plot to arrest upon return to Thailand on Monday (landing is planned on military airbase)

4. EC renders guilty verdict for a Puana Pandin official bringing total number of possible dissolutions

of coalition parties to 4

5. PDA essentially ignores court injunction regarding their protest site

I have a strange feeling that the country come very close to crucial confrontation

While typical forecast in this situation would be a military coup, I am inclined to believe that another development is possible. The reason for that is quite open attacks of PDA on leading figures in Thai Army

(except for Air force commander) which seem to indicate that top brass is not inclined to be involved in another coup. But if not coup, then what?

I think the plausible scenario is emergency decree which is possible under present constitution and which gives emergency powers to PM and top military leadership. Why military would want to be involved in that? Well, I guess, some incentives could have been provided... This is, of course, a total speculation

but I do not see other way out under present circumstances...

Arguebly, the current government far from being the best in Thai history but banning 111 most capable Thai politicians definitely takes its toll.

For those who is thisty for Thaksin blood, I would say this. There is no precedent in the history of manking when writing and rewriting constitutions, staging military coups, setting up Asset examination committees,

appointing senators, creating monstrous Election commissions with a power of inquisition, allowing a group

of huligans to terrorize the capital of a big country etc. ever solved the problem of corruption.

Only economic growth, rising living standards of population, raising salaries to governmet employees to decent levels can resolve this issue. Look at the examples in the region: Japan, South Korea,Singapore, HK, Taiwan they all went trough this process. There is no other way.

Thailand needs stability, rule of law, conditions which allow government to do its job efficiently.

It is, of course, only anecdotal evidence, but the rise of violent crime against foreigners in places like Pattaya seem to indicate that current situation in BKK started spill over to other areas. And, indeed, how

one expects the citizens to abide the rules when the mob in BKK terrorize the government, some elements in the Army act as if they are above the law (and de facto they are), ignoring arrest warrants, acting as protectors of certain individuals and seem to inviting an open confrontation with police and security forces.

I have to admit it is extremely difficult to forecast political developments in Thailand but I have this strange feeling...

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There is no precedent in the history of manking when writing and rewriting constitutions, staging military coups, setting up Asset examination committees,

Sure there is; Burma, Zimbabwe... Perhaps Thailand aspires to that level? They've had one desastrous coup against a popular leader.. If they can do it against Thaksin they can do it against anyone and most certainly Samak / PPP.

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Actually, what we're witnessing is an ugly beast that refuses to die.

You're right to point out similarities with other countries in the region. There is a powerful conflict going on between a strong feeling of national identity and a necessity to open to the world. Just think of Japan and China, once very powerful nations, who closed their door to protect themselves from foreign pollution and what followed. Some understand very well history, look at the travel pattern of some individual, and some don't … or don't want. Far from others posters here, we should never underestimate the intelligence of the players of this game.

And there is what is specific to Thailand. A French visitor, 200 or 300 years ago, gave a still very accurate description of the Thai society, who does what and the need to import foreigners to perform some task that are either frown upon or not allowed to member of the Thai society. A part of the current problem is, with this foreign expertise were also imported foreign customs that don't fit well in the cozy arrangement of the Thai society.

Unfortunately, beside the sabai sabai attitude, there are a number of subjects we're not allowed to discuss here. That's why we need to rely on the foreign press to get an "objective" view of what's going one in the LoS, but keeping in mind that these foreigner observers often have a limited understanding of Thai customs.

To conclude, I may have to please those who like to compare the LoS to some part of the Family and say that unfortunately too often those who talk don't know and those who know don't talk.

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Me too (the strange feeling I mean, and those who don't know). Long live the King.

When you say the mob, I guess you're referring to the PDA. The impression I get from most working class Thai's (admittedly, not political scientists. More waitresses, taxi drivers, working girls, etc.) is they're not too crazy about the Thaksin/Samak govt. It's not that they trust any politicians, but the current continuation of the govment taking all their money and resources is getting old. I think that these working class people identify with the King and the Army, and the PAD. Certainly the King, anyway.

I remember the Mel Brook's line "It's good to be King." He seems like a very sweet, sincere, good man, who is very sad and bitter about what's going on. I hope they figure it out before it's too late.

Edited by Shotime
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A. There is no precedent in the history of manking when writing and rewriting constitutions, staging military coups, setting up Asset examination committees,

appointing senators, creating monstrous Election commissions with a power of inquisition, allowing a group of huligans to terrorize the capital of a big country etc. ever solved the problem of corruption.

B. Thailand needs stability, rule of law, conditions which allow government to do its job efficiently.

C. It is, of course, only anecdotal evidence, but the rise of violent crime against foreigners in places like Pattaya seem to indicate that current situation in BKK started spill over to other areas.

Your post reads like a manifesto for a totalitarian curtailment of civil liberties, or in regular folk's lingo, a police state.

Sorry but it will not fly. People do not like to live under police regimes, no matter how benevolent they start off as. Any attempt to impose draconian measures will spook the financial markets and capital will flee.

A. What you see as a fault, others see as the growing pains of democracy. Chile had 2 horrible regimes under Pinochet and before him Allende. It went through more turmoil and bloodshed than Thailand and yet today, it is a living breathing democracy with a stable government and prosperity.

B. Hurrah. Who wouldn't agree. Unfortunately, the people that started off their rabid polemic diatribes to the gathered crowds usually had names like Benito, Adolf, Caesar and Joseph (Iosif). Something about the bloodshed that usually followed shortly thereafter makes modern folk leery of such public sentiments.

C. The rampant crime as you see it has nothing to do with the current political situation. It is driven by demographics. Populations with large adolescent populations have higher crime rates. As populations age, the incidence of such crimes drops significantly. Thailand has a lot of young males working low paying jobs that crave material possessions. Yes there are random muggings against farangs, but it pales in comparison to that experienced in most western countries. Most of the crime against farangs occur in certain specific sections of urban areas. The simple solution is not to hang around in those areas. I know when I cut through the Paradise ghetto in Patong, I will be accosted by a katoey or male hooker, so I walk fast. I trade off saving 10 minutes on a walk home against the need to douse myself with bleach.

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Consider recent events:

1. Court announces that verdict will be rended on Pojaman tax evasion trial on July 31

2. Thaksin banned from leaving the country

3. Samak reports about possible plot to arrest upon return to Thailand on Monday (landing is planned on military airbase)

4. EC renders guilty verdict for a Puana Pandin official bringing total number of possible dissolutions

of coalition parties to 4

5. PDA essentially ignores court injunction regarding their protest site

I have a strange feeling that the country come very close to crucial confrontation

While typical forecast in this situation would be a military coup, I am inclined to believe that another development is possible. The reason for that is quite open attacks of PDA on leading figures in Thai Army

(except for Air force commander) which seem to indicate that top brass is not inclined to be involved in another coup. But if not coup, then what?

I think the plausible scenario is emergency decree which is possible under present constitution and which gives emergency powers to PM and top military leadership. Why military would want to be involved in that? Well, I guess, some incentives could have been provided... This is, of course, a total speculation

but I do not see other way out under present circumstances...

Arguebly, the current government far from being the best in Thai history but banning 111 most capable Thai politicians definitely takes its toll.

For those who is thisty for Thaksin blood, I would say this. There is no precedent in the history of manking when writing and rewriting constitutions, staging military coups, setting up Asset examination committees,

appointing senators, creating monstrous Election commissions with a power of inquisition, allowing a group

of huligans to terrorize the capital of a big country etc. ever solved the problem of corruption.

Only economic growth, rising living standards of population, raising salaries to governmet employees to decent levels can resolve this issue. Look at the examples in the region: Japan, South Korea,Singapore, HK, Taiwan they all went trough this process. There is no other way.

Thailand needs stability, rule of law, conditions which allow government to do its job efficiently.

It is, of course, only anecdotal evidence, but the rise of violent crime against foreigners in places like Pattaya seem to indicate that current situation in BKK started spill over to other areas. And, indeed, how

one expects the citizens to abide the rules when the mob in BKK terrorize the government, some elements in the Army act as if they are above the law (and de facto they are), ignoring arrest warrants, acting as protectors of certain individuals and seem to inviting an open confrontation with police and security forces.

I have to admit it is extremely difficult to forecast political developments in Thailand but I have this strange feeling...

one more option: Government collapse, the King is asked for help. He appoint a government which works for 2 years and make a new election.

Meanwhile Thaksin and his cronies go in jail.

At this: "creating monstrous Election commissions with a power of inquisition", they are still not powerful enough. vote buying was everywhere in Thailand again. Something must be done. And it can't be that super rich people like Thaksin can do what they want, doing crimes without punishments.

Look into the ministers, almost every minister has some very dark sides....bought degrees, Chalerms son killed a policemen and get into the army again. That government is the worst of Thai society and must be kicked out by any means.

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There is much much more going on then one might think , there are things

which nobody talks about and many people do not know either , what will make

are mouths fall open . So I would say stop speculating , cause most of us are all wrong anyway !

So don't keep us all in suspense... if you are in the know, an anonomous internet forumn seems like a safe enough place to spread the word.

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Guest Reimar

I deleted some post referring to the Royal Family already.

Please keep this topic clean and clear just "on Topic"! If it's goes off topic, this thread will be closed immediately.

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much of all this is the result of the long, long time and successful nurtured idea of "sabai, sabai" and the "mai pen rai" attitude!

many, many do know that there is something wrong, something very fishy, but as long as it doesn't hurt or affects one directly, "mai pen rai" - free ticket to ride!

One post mentions :"not to underestimate the intelligence behind this!"

so it is, in it's core, but the leaders of the "squeeze it all out of this country conspiracy" are able to get ever more blunt about it, the more, as staged by their latest master, how to get away with it, with almost anything!

....it's not about a footballclub.. it's about..

"the day I bought myself a country!"

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At this: "creating monstrous Election commissions with a power of inquisition", they are still not powerful enough. vote buying was everywhere in Thailand again. Something must be done. And it can't be that super rich people like Thaksin can do what they want, doing crimes without punishments.

Look into the ministers, almost every minister has some very dark sides....bought degrees, Chalerms son killed a policemen and get into the army again. That government is the worst of Thai society and must be kicked out by any means.

When I read this reply, then the original post again, I couldn't help but having a feeling of "deja vu", then it came back to my mind : Zimbabwe ! Kicking out the super rich to give back to the poor, what a joke ! When Mugabe will eventually (I hope) been kicked out of power, he will probably able to find a consulting job with the democrats. At least he managed to be successful for a while ...

You don't like Chalerm ? Nobody really does but when your adversaries kick out of the games your best players (but still manage to lose … see above paragraph), you do with what left. It’s time to do the right thing for Thailand, bring back the A team !

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one more option: Government collapse, the King is asked for help. He appoint a government which works for 2 years and make a new election.

Meanwhile Thaksin and his cronies go in jail.

At this: "creating monstrous Election commissions with a power of inquisition", they are still not powerful enough. vote buying was everywhere in Thailand again. Something must be done. And it can't be that super rich people like Thaksin can do what they want, doing crimes without punishments.

Look into the ministers, almost every minister has some very dark sides....bought degrees, Chalerms son killed a policemen and get into the army again. That government is the worst of Thai society and must be kicked out by any means.

I do not know to what extent the vote buying took place and who bought more votes. What strikes me with the posts like that is that the poster tries to demonize one side and exonerate the other.

It is quite obvious that Election commission appointed by junta is biased so is Constitutional court. But no matter how much power one gives to any of these institutions or various other commissions, they are absolutely in no position to eliminate the corruption. Those of us who were brought up on fairy tales like to be on the side of angels. There are no angels on Thai political stage. You simply ask yourself what side

have a chance to put Thailand to the right course: elimination of poverty, economic growth, rising living standards and the answer is a no brainer:Thaksin side. He proved it. There is solid statistics supporting significant progress in all these directions during his tenure as Thai PM. In fact, this progress is unprecedented in Thai history.

Regarding comments of another poster:comparison with Chile is interesting but hardly pertinent here.

Why would not you want to compare the situation in Thailand and other countries in the region which made a significant progress in fighting corruption and how they achieved it?Or, if you bring Chile why, for example, you do not bring Brasil? Brasilian society is quite corrupt with president Lula and some of his associates were accused of that, yet the country made a tremendous progress during Lula years.

The reality is that the typical path out of corruption is that the country simply outgrow it, get rid of it

as a kind of child desease but it does not happen automatically. It happens through economic growth,attraction of foreign investments,hard work. At certain stage, that requires certain degree of transperancy and established rules of economic game. That is where corruption become a real obstacle to further progress and gets contained (it is hardly can be eliminated altogether).

Returning to Chile example, Alende Marxist economic policies start hurting not only very rich but the population of the country as a whole. The only way out was a military coup. Do not get me wrong,

I am not supporting mass violations of human rights under Pinochet but I suspect at the time they had no other option as a coup and Pinochet was the man in charge of military.

Where is the analogy with Thailand here? By the way, thre are examples of "good military coups" and one of them (favorite of retired general Sonthi) is the last Portugese coup which got rid the country of the dictatorship and paved the way to the democracy. I, however, would never compare Sonthi coup with Portugese one.

Economic progress needed to eliminate corruption is possible under various types of political regimes starting from military juntas and ending up with socialist-like democracies(like in Brasil). The end point is not necessarily a democracy in the Western sense of the word (e.g. Singapore). In fact, a political organization of the society may not be a crucial factor in fighting corruption, since it is mostly economic phenomenon.

From Western viewpoint the choice between two sides in Thai tectonic struggle is no-brainer either.

Just think about the whole bruhaha regarding Cambodian temple: it is already riched the point where Constitutional court almost seems ready to accuse current FM in violating territorial integraty of the country. What is next?

Bush is going to visit Thailand in August to meet Samak and hopefully show his support. In this case, he will definately show on what side the West is.

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At this: "creating monstrous Election commissions with a power of inquisition", they are still not powerful enough. vote buying was everywhere in Thailand again. Something must be done. And it can't be that super rich people like Thaksin can do what they want, doing crimes without punishments.

Look into the ministers, almost every minister has some very dark sides....bought degrees, Chalerms son killed a policemen and get into the army again. That government is the worst of Thai society and must be kicked out by any means.

When I read this reply, then the original post again, I couldn't help but having a feeling of "deja vu", then it came back to my mind : Zimbabwe ! Kicking out the super rich to give back to the poor, what a joke ! When Mugabe will eventually (I hope) been kicked out of power, he will probably able to find a consulting job with the democrats. At least he managed to be successful for a while ...

You don't like Chalerm ? Nobody really does but when your adversaries kick out of the games your best players (but still manage to lose … see above paragraph), you do with what left. It’s time to do the right thing for Thailand, bring back the A team !

No kick all the criminals out and try with honest people would be the solution. Just you won't find them at PPP.

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GeriatricKid and Samuian thanks for your clinical and reasonable posts as always. I don't yet live in Thailand but through many visits have

experienced the feelings you have engendered in your posts and not just on this topic. e.g. hope for the future of Thailand will be the better

for your thoughts.

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Poster (mumbug) claims it is obvious the courts would be bias to the junta. Hogwash.

And with that the rest of the post falls flat.

I typically do not respond to messages like that but you clearly lying here. I did not say that courts

biased to junta. I did say that Constitutional court is biased against PPP and its allies. Again, I usually do not respond to BS like that but your BS iis too obvious to ignore. I,of course, will ignore your posts in the future.

Edited by mumbu
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Poster (mumbug) claims it is obvious the courts would be bias to the junta. Hogwash.

And with that the rest of the post falls flat.

I typically do not respond to messages like that but you clearly lying here. I did not say that courts

biased to junta. I did say that criminal court is biased against PPP and its allies. Again, I usually do not respond to BS like that but your BS iis too obvious to ignore. I,of course, will ignore your posts in the future.

It is normal that the criminal court is biased against criminals.

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Poster (mumbug) claims it is obvious the courts would be bias to the junta. Hogwash.

And with that the rest of the post falls flat.

I typically do not respond to messages like that but you clearly lying here. I did not say that courts

biased to junta. I did say that Constitutional court is biased against PPP and its allies. Again, I usually do not respond to BS like that but your BS iis too obvious to ignore. I,of course, will ignore your posts in the future.

Tsktsk, now you have been caught lying in a public forum.

Here is what you wrote:

It is quite obvious that Election commission appointed by junta is biased so is Constitutional court.

You obviously forgot to qualify that you only mean it in a specific way and no other. And in the end, it still have the same effect on your post.

So to restate:

Poster (mumbug) claims it is obvious the courts would be bias against PPP. Hogwash.

And with that the rest of the post falls flat.

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one more option: Government collapse, the King is asked for help. He appoint a government which works for 2 years and make a new election.

Meanwhile Thaksin and his cronies go in jail.

At this: "creating monstrous Election commissions with a power of inquisition", they are still not powerful enough. vote buying was everywhere in Thailand again. Something must be done. And it can't be that super rich people like Thaksin can do what they want, doing crimes without punishments.

Look into the ministers, almost every minister has some very dark sides....bought degrees, Chalerms son killed a policemen and get into the army again. That government is the worst of Thai society and must be kicked out by any means.

I do not know to what extent the vote buying took place and who bought more votesbut not from the democrates. What strikes me with the posts like that is that the poster tries to demonize one side and exonerate the other.

It is quite obvious that Election commission appointed by junta is biased so is Constitutional court. what evidence? But no matter how much power one gives to any of these institutions or various other commissions, they are absolutely in no position to eliminate the corruptionof course, reducing it would be good enough. Those of us who were brought up on fairy tales like to be on the side of angels. There are no angels on Thai political stage. You simply ask yourself what side

have a chance to put Thailand to the right course: elimination of poverty, economic growth, rising living standards and the answer is a no brainer:Thaksin sidered history a Thaksin like government (with Thaksin) made the biggest crises in Thailand the Chuan fixed it, than Thaksin came back, grow went up for 2 years and than just down. So please explain your brainer. . He proved itwhere not in Thailand. There is solid statistics supporting significant progress in all these directions during his tenure as Thai PMthats a simple lie. In fact, this progress is unprecedented in Thai historythat shows you didn't learn any history.

Regarding comments of another poster:comparison with Chile is interesting but hardly pertinent here.

Why would not you want to compare the situation in Thailand and other countries in the region which made a significant progress in fighting corruption and how they achieved it?Or, if you bring Chile why, for example, you do not bring Brasil? Brasilian society is quite corrupt with president Lula and some of his associates were accused of that, yet the country made a tremendous progress during Lula years.

The reality is that the typical path out of corruption is that the country simply outgrow it, get rid of it

as a kind of child desease but it does not happen automatically. It happens through economic growth,attraction of foreign investments,hard work. At certain stage, that requires certain degree of transperancy and established rules of economic game. That is where corruption become a real obstacle to further progress and gets contained (it is hardly can be eliminated altogether).

Returning to Chile example, Alende Marxist economic policies start hurting not only very rich but the population of the country as a whole. The only way out was a military coup. Do not get me wrong,

I am not supporting mass violations of human rights under Pinochet but I suspect at the time they had no other option as a coup and Pinochet was the man in charge of military.

Where is the analogy with Thailand here? By the way, thre are examples of "good military coups" and one of them (favorite of retired general Sonthi) is the last Portugese coup which got rid the country of the dictatorship and paved the way to the democracy. I, however, would never compare Sonthi coup with Portugese one.

Economic progress needed to eliminate corruption is possible under various types of political regimes starting from military juntas and ending up with socialist-like democracies(like in Brasil). The end point is not necessarily a democracy in the Western sense of the word (e.g. Singapore). In fact, a political organization of the society may not be a crucial factor in fighting corruption, since it is mostly economic phenomenon.

From Western viewpoint the choice between two sides in Thai tectonic struggle is no-brainer either.

Just think about the whole bruhaha regarding Cambodian temple: it is already riched the point where Constitutional court almost seems ready to accuse current FM in violating territorial integraty of the country. What is next?

Bush is going to visit Thailand in August to meet Samak and hopefully show his support. In this case, he will definately show on what side the West is.

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I tend to agree with the OP. I think still waters run deep--and things have been a little too still and yet very uch unresolved. I've lived in a number of countries and it usually ends up with some big internal problems or else some outside influence (real or imagined) that flames nationalism and then gets people united. Some of that is going on now.

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Poster (mumbug) claims it is obvious the courts would be bias to the junta. Hogwash.

And with that the rest of the post falls flat.

I typically do not respond to messages like that but you clearly lying here. I did not say that courts

biased to junta. I did say that Constitutional court is biased against PPP and its allies. Again, I usually do not respond to BS like that but your BS iis too obvious to ignore. I,of course, will ignore your posts in the future.

Tsk tsk, now you have been caught lying in a public forum.

Here is what you wrote:

It is quite obvious that Election commission appointed by junta is biased so is Constitutional court.

You obviously forgot to qualify that you only mean it in a specific way and no other. And in the end, it still have the same effect on your post.

So to restate:

Poster (mumbug) claims it is obvious the courts would be bias against PPP. Hogwash.

And with that the rest of the post falls flat.

I won't call it a "lie".... but Untruth #2 for mumbu:

The Election Commission was NOT appointed by the junta... it was established BEFORE the coup... during Thaksin's "caretaker" government days.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/EC-Selects-C...son-t83248.html

Edited by sriracha john
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I won't call it a "lie".... but Untruth #2 for mumbu:

The Election Commission was NOT appointed by the junta... it was established BEFORE the coup... during Thaksin's "caretaker" government days.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/EC-Selects-C...son-t83248.html

A bit harsh...

The Truth is that the current Commissioners were selected in September 2006 to take over from the previous commissioners who had finally resigned. They were selected by the Supreme Court in compliance of the rules of the 1997 Constitution, which stipulated that if any commissioner left the ECT other than by expiration of their term of office, then any replacement(s) would only continue for the remaining period (Article 143), which in this case was October 5th 2007.

On September the 20th 2006 (3.00pm) the CDRM officially announced that the Election Commission was dissolved, and the Constitution abolished, it later on the same day changed it's mind regarding the ECT, although for the 7 hours until it made it's 13th announcement (10.00pm),there was legally no Election Commission.

The Election commision was given the mandate under the 2006 (interim) constitution to take charge of both the referendum and the General Election.

When the new 2007 Constitution came into effect, it stipulated that the ECT would continue to hold office for a period of 6 years from the date that they were selected.(Article 299)

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Yesterday I was talking about my worries about the current situation in Thailand with an Italian friend of mine. I'm sure you will like his answer. "In Italy we haven't have a stable government as far as I can remember. Italy is home of the mafia. But it's still one of the best place to live in Europe. So what are you worrying about?"

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Yesterday I was talking about my worries about the current situation in Thailand with an Italian friend of mine. I'm sure you will like his answer. "In Italy we haven't have a stable government as far as I can remember. Italy is home of the mafia. But it's still one of the best place to live in Europe. So what are you worrying about?"

:o:D I like that one. I was talking to a Belgian friend and understand they were without a govt. for a while, can't remember the details.

Now for my husbands quote, who said yesterday that 'Thailand is a wonderful place and has lots going for it; but it's big problem being that it is run by the Thais. '

Ouch! He is Thai, but genetically not a lot of Thai blood in there.

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