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Do you ever just get sick of the blood on the floor. They started with the R word reccession then the S word stagflation, Then the big one GD Great Depression.

Sorry in reality I don't see any of that. One quarter down .02% the rest have been on the postive side. Maybe not by much but positive is still positive.

They are including the financials and housing in those numbers, so somewhere out there someone is still doing pretty darn good. We just don't hear much about them.

Guess it's true it's true it don't bleed it don't read.

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Do you ever just get sick of the blood on the floor. They started with the R word reccession then the S word stagflation, Then the big one GD Great Depression.

Sorry in reality I don't see any of that. One quarter down .02% the rest have been on the postive side. Maybe not by much but positive is still positive.

They are including the financials and housing in those numbers, so somewhere out there someone is still doing pretty darn good. We just don't hear much about them.

Guess it's true it's true it don't bleed it don't read.

Ray,

You are entitled to your opinion (and I wouldnt even necessarily argue that it is wrong) but you really havent justified that on your opinion is based on coherent analysis of currently available data information. To the extent that you mention say housing starts (presumably relating to you the US) you should realize the the statement that 'say they largest increase in housing stats month on month since 1990' has to be taken with a pinch of salt to anyone who has done some decent analysis.

From what I recall housing starts in the US in February have always been ahead of January since year dot. On a seasonally adjusted basis they were down around 4% month on month. Year on Year they were down over 30% against a year that the worst for 16 years. At the peak of the housing boom, housing starts were well over 1.5m. Now those stats are pretty much off the top of my head, so they could easily be wrong.

You almost mention banking which clearly benefitted from a change in account rules and is very clearly a lag indicator on the basis that part of the reason any banking system is recapitalized is due to them being license to generate huge profits so as to limit government subsidy.

Now on the basis that you havent mentioned 'green shoots' I will take your comments seriously but please understand that your underlying comments dont provide a serious argument and merely indicate you havent read the available date or do not wish to share your analysis with us that we are wrong, rather than you have superior knowledge.

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In 1999 I began an intense study of market bubbles and crashes as mentioned before. This included buying contemporary magazines and newspapers and reading them to see what was going through people's minds.

Today reminds me of the briefly sunny period in 1930-1 when most economists and public officials agreed that the Depression was already over and the economy was back on track. President Hoover dismissed a delegation of businessmen who came to Washington with ideas on stabilizing the economy with "Too late gentlemen, the slump is over."

There are few things from my childhood that I remember more vividly than grandmother's comments regarding this false recovery. "If we knew what was coming, we would have killed ourselves." This from as strong a person as I have ever encountered, with a faith that would break rocks. The Great Depression left an indelible mark, or more accurately scar, on her entire family, and my father's as well.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...et-to-come.html

I hope I am not the one to point this post out to you someday.

Instead I hope to say hey you were right it was no big deal at all.

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In 1999 I began an intense study of market bubbles and crashes as mentioned before. This included buying contemporary magazines and newspapers and reading them to see what was going through people's minds.

Today reminds me of the briefly sunny period in 1930-1 when most economists and public officials agreed that the Depression was already over and the economy was back on track. President Hoover dismissed a delegation of businessmen who came to Washington with ideas on stabilizing the economy with "Too late gentlemen, the slump is over."

There are few things from my childhood that I remember more vividly than grandmother's comments regarding this false recovery. "If we knew what was coming, we would have killed ourselves." This from as strong a person as I have ever encountered, with a faith that would break rocks. The Great Depression left an indelible mark, or more accurately scar, on her entire family, and my father's as well.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...et-to-come.html

I hope I am not the one to point this post out to you someday.

Instead I hope to say hey you were right it was no big deal at all.

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message742541/pg1

I love these free ebooks. Just downloaded "The Complete Book of Self Sufficiency" by John Seymour.

Yep flying, it sure is a comin'. We are all in deep. I was screeching about this in 2003. Everybody calling me mad and a doom-monger.

I get calls now asking "How did you know this was going to happen?", to which I reply "It was bloody obvious!".

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As an admitted couch social psychologist, I have to say that I cannot endorse the "end [great depression] is here" meme- not that I know anything more than the rest of you, but because I see it as mostly irrelevant to the way most people should think, believe, and act. The group think in this meme is pretty obvious- and we all see the same media "bleeding"- to borrow from above- and repeating ad nauseum. The world has lots of dark big picture issues: global warming, acidic oceans, overpopulation, war and disappearing middle classes.

But, there are many things to think about on a day-to-day basis, but dwelling on global depression- or really most other big picture issues- to the point where it reaches the levels of top-conversation topic--is not only not recommended, it is unnecessary. One should prioritize one's thoughts around that which he/she has control over- mostly ones own actions.

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I get calls now asking "How did you know this was going to happen?", to which I reply "It was bloody obvious!".

I agree with this comment to a certain degree in that in my view is it is a simply a statement of fact.

That you could have actually made money from this is less obvious. The likes of shiller and Krugman who pointed out that the bubbles were obviously bubbles were in my view totally correct but if you took their advice as investment advice and shorted the bubbles you, would in general, have lost your shirt. Not because they were wrong but because they simply lasted far longer than any rational person would have predicted and as a result we are now suffering the 'bigger the party, the bigger the hangover effect.'

Now to the extent you got it all right - many respects - but the simple fact that intelligent people can point out to a disequilibrium in itself doesnt make you a fortune. This is known as Hahn's rational disequilibrium or more commonly 'the greater fool theory.'

What pisses me off at the moment is that given there were relatively smart guys who did get it right and understood the disequilibriums in say the US economy, why policy should be addressed at bailing out people who ignored their advice which as you say was 'bloody obvious' and to the extent that current forecasts are made with out recognition that their advice was correct - say output gap analysis - they are simply digging themselves into a greater hole.

I dont mind people admitting their mistakes but I do have a big problem with the concept you should invest on the basis that a Government is incredibly stupid.

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http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message742541/pg1

I love these free ebooks. Just downloaded "The Complete Book of Self Sufficiency" by John Seymour.

Yep flying, it sure is a comin'. We are all in deep. I was screeching about this in 2003. Everybody calling me mad and a doom-monger.

I get calls now asking "How did you know this was going to happen?", to which I reply "It was bloody obvious!".

That is pretty much where its at. You just try to be as self sufficient as possible.

Many have their heads in the sand in many ways & say.......well it cant get that bad....etc.

Perhaps & perhaps not....But there is a definite destabilizing happening & it will not stabilize anytime soon.....at least not by the hands I see guiding it now.

Perhaps it is all well beyond my tiny brain but I have yet to see one recovery technique/rescue effort being put forth that made me say.........Yeah ok now we are heading in the right direction at least.

Like you I have been preparing for well over a year now. I am glad in many ways to have this bounce that folks see as a bottom. It gives me that much more time to try.

Edited by flying
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I get calls now asking "How did you know this was going to happen?", to which I reply "It was bloody obvious!".

I agree with this comment to a certain degree in that in my view is it is a simply a statement of fact.

That you could have actually made money from this is less obvious. The likes of shiller and Krugman who pointed out that the bubbles were obviously bubbles were in my view totally correct but if you took their advice as investment advice and shorted the bubbles you, would in general, have lost your shirt. Not because they were wrong but because they simply lasted far longer than any rational person would have predicted and as a result we are now suffering the 'bigger the party, the bigger the hangover effect.'

Now to the extent you got it all right - many respects - but the simple fact that intelligent people can point out to a disequilibrium in itself doesnt make you a fortune. This is known as Hahn's rational disequilibrium or more commonly 'the greater fool theory.'

What pisses me off at the moment is that given there were relatively smart guys who did get it right and understood the disequilibriums in say the US economy, why policy should be addressed at bailing out people who ignored their advice which as you say was 'bloody obvious' and to the extent that current forecasts are made with out recognition that their advice was correct - say output gap analysis - they are simply digging themselves into a greater hole.

I dont mind people admitting their mistakes but I do have a big problem with the concept you should invest on the basis that a Government is incredibly stupid.

Why should my hard earned money that I've given most of my life (not much of a life either) to earn and save be stolen from me to bail/enrich out the criminal?

Hence the link self-sufficiency book and my simple country lifestyle I have chosen to lead now.

One has become a refusenik.

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Why should my hard earned money that I've given most of my life (not much of a life either) to earn and save be stolen from me to bail/enrich out the criminal?

Hence the link self-sufficiency book and my simple country lifestyle I have chosen to lead now.

One has become a refusenik.

You know I use to live much further off the grid.

These days I have electricity where as before I supplied my own.

I still have my own septic system & my own water supply & also all our veggies & green house.

self sufficiency is not a bad thing to learn :)

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http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message742541/pg1

I love these free ebooks. Just downloaded "The Complete Book of Self Sufficiency" by John Seymour.

Yep flying, it sure is a comin'. We are all in deep. I was screeching about this in 2003. Everybody calling me mad and a doom-monger.

I get calls now asking "How did you know this was going to happen?", to which I reply "It was bloody obvious!".

That is pretty much where its at. You just try to be as self sufficient as possible.

Many have their heads in the sand in many ways & say.......well it cant get that bad....etc.

Perhaps & perhaps not....But there is a definite destabilizing happening & it will not stabilize anytime soon.....at least not by the hands I see guiding it now.

Perhaps it is all well beyond my tiny brain but I have yet to see one recovery technique/rescue effort being put forth that made me say.........Yeah ok now we are heading in the right direction at least.

Like you I have been preparing for well over a year now. I am glad in many ways to have this bounce that folks see as a bottom. It gives me that much more time to try.

The one psychological trait I do have on my side is a total disinterest in non-practical, intangible materialism. Okay I buy things like paint to paint walls, potted plants and bits and pieces for the garden and house, but I have no requirement for a Mercedes-Benz. Unless it's a Unimog which would be great on the farm!

I don't miss my old life of working 90 hours a week under conditions of insanity. Although it did fund my capital set up, I still don't miss it.

Edited by MJP
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The one psychological trait I do have on my side is a total disinterest in non-practical, intangible materialism. Okay I buy things like paint to paint walls, potted plants and bits and pieces for the garden and house, but I have no requirement for a Mercedes-Benz. Unless it's a Unimog which would be great on the farm!

I don't miss my old life of working 90 hours a week under conditions of insanity. Although it did fund my capital set up, I still don't miss it.

Same here.............Does that mean we are getting old? Have we had enough of it all & dont need *stuff* so much these days?

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The one psychological trait I do have on my side is a total disinterest in non-practical, intangible materialism. Okay I buy things like paint to paint walls, potted plants and bits and pieces for the garden and house, but I have no requirement for a Mercedes-Benz. Unless it's a Unimog which would be great on the farm!

I don't miss my old life of working 90 hours a week under conditions of insanity. Although it did fund my capital set up, I still don't miss it.

Same here.............Does that mean we are getting old? Have we had enough of it all & dont need *stuff* so much these days?

When I was 24 I was working for Bilfinger the German construction giant, this was in the UK, BTW. I was running the UK's largest remediation site at the time. They forced this car on me, an Audi A6 something, don't know it was a big thing and I couldn't park it.

Anyway, I said get rid of that thing I want a small diesel van (like an Escort or Citroen thing). No! I was told, it's not good for the 'image'.

Image! I only drive from the B&B to the car park!

Moral of the story is, the West lost it's way. Everything went from the tangible (useful stuff you could . . . use!) to the intangible (motor cars with badges on them, fancy nonsense that cost a fortune and didn't actually do anything).

This is why it is with great pleasure I go to the hardware store down the road and rejoice at the fantastic farming and groundworking tools they have there which cost pennies. Spend the day digging the garden and next week start sowing some seeds once I've laid out my various plots.

Edited by MJP
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I cant claim to know much about self-sufficiency economic theory but it does go against the very ethos of on what I have built my economic thinking which is....

1) All businesses should be based on mutually beneficial deals. To the extent I am better at achieving or producing x you pay a premium but that premium is not as high as the cost of achieving x by yourself.

2) My businesses present services or products that achieve that or else they shouldnt be in business,

3) The extent that I make a profit is fair because you couldnt have acquired the same product or service at a lower cost.

4) I obviously used the profit gained in the same basis - to pay maids, secretaries, cooks etc to provide services that I cannot provide myself at lower cost, with efficient time and to the same standard.

I have never really known a successful businessman who hasnt worked on this basis. If your economic business model is based on ripping off the customer it will not be successful in the long run. (To the extent that people can show otherwise (i.e. Madoff) I dont know him and would not respect his business model.)

I fully respect that there are say monopolies that take advantage of their position to gain super normal returns.

The basic concept of self-sufficiency I simply find economically inefficient - I believe rather than learning to do everything (say mend my car) the logical thing is to do what I do best and from those returns pay someone to mend my car.

Edited by Abrak
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I cant claim to know much about self-sufficiency economic theory but it does go against the very ethos of on what I have built my economic thinking which is....

1) All businesses should be based on mutually beneficial deals. To the extent I am better at achieving or producing x you pay a premium but that premium is not as high as the cost of achieving x by yourself.

2) My businesses present services or products that achieve that or else they shouldnt be in business,

3) The extent that I make a profit is fair because you couldnt have acquired the same product or service at a lower cost.

4) I obviously used the profit gained in the same basis - to pay maids, secretaries, cooks etc to provide services that I cannot provide myself at lower cost, with efficient time and to the same standard.

I have never really known a successful businessman who hasnt worked on this basis. If your economic business model is based on ripping off the customer it will not be successful in the long run. (To the extent that people can show otherwise (i.e. Madoff) I dont know him and would not respect his business model.)

I fully respect that there are say monopolies that take advantage of their position to gain super normal returns.

The basic concept of self-sufficiency I simply find economically inefficient - I believe rather than learning to do everything (say mend my car) the logical thing is to do what I do best and from those returns pay someone to mend my car.

It is. Dark ages stuff. I'm of course not totally self-sufficient neither will I ever be. But it's a fun alternative to shopping at Tesco for veg. For me it's an extension of gardening and it's fun to put together simple engineering, like my glorious soakaways with Thai pots (big water butt things made of concrete) on top.

The water from the roof guttering goes into the pot via a pipe. When the pot's full, it simply overflows and goes into the soakaway underneath. Then into the groundwater where I can pump it using my deep borehole. Looks great too, a real garden feature. It's got big white pebbles around the base.

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I cant claim to know much about self-sufficiency economic theory but it does go against the very ethos of on what I have built my economic thinking which is....

1) All businesses should be based on mutually beneficial deals. To the extent I am better at achieving or producing x you pay a premium but that premium is not as high as the cost of achieving x by yourself.

2) My businesses present services or products that achieve that or else they shouldnt be in business,

3) The extent that I make a profit is fair because you couldnt have acquired the same product or service at a lower cost.

4) I obviously used the profit gained in the same basis - to pay maids, secretaries, cooks etc to provide services that I cannot provide myself at lower cost, with efficient time and to the same standard.

I have never really known a successful businessman who hasnt worked on this basis. If your economic business model is based on ripping off the customer it will not be successful in the long run. (To the extent that people can show otherwise (i.e. Madoff) I dont know him and would not respect his business model.)

I fully respect that there are say monopolies that take advantage of their position to gain super normal returns.

The basic concept of self-sufficiency I simply find economically inefficient - I believe rather than learning to do everything (say mend my car) the logical thing is to do what I do best and from those returns pay someone to mend my car.

It is. Dark ages stuff. I'm of course not totally self-sufficient neither will I ever be. But it's a fun alternative to shopping at Tesco for veg. For me it's an extension of gardening and it's fun to put together simple engineering, like my glorious soakaways with Thai pots (big water butt things made of concrete) on top.

The water from the roof guttering goes into the pot via a pipe. When the pot's full, it simply overflows and goes into the soakaway underneath. Then into the groundwater where I can pump it using my deep borehole. Looks great too, a real garden feature. It's got big white pebbles around the base.

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Why should my hard earned money that I've given most of my life (not much of a life either) to earn and save be stolen from me to bail/enrich out the criminal?

Hence the link self-sufficiency book and my simple country lifestyle I have chosen to lead now.

One has become a refusenik.

I cannot argue with your justification for your beliefs.

If I believed them and they were generally true there would be no economic system and I would never have gone into business.

I simply assume people act in good faith until proven otherwise. The fact that you believe that the US is about to act in bad faith say, I do feel we have been sufficiently warned (wikipedia Bernanke Doctrine) and the biggest losers only gained that position through material disadvantage of the US.

(I also have a very severe practical argument against self-sufficiency in that i have no idea how to work a washing machine etc.)

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Why should my hard earned money that I've given most of my life (not much of a life either) to earn and save be stolen from me to bail/enrich out the criminal?

Hence the link self-sufficiency book and my simple country lifestyle I have chosen to lead now.

One has become a refusenik.

I cannot argue with your justification for your beliefs.

If I believed them and they were generally true there would be no economic system and I would never have gone into business.

I simply assume people act in good faith until proven otherwise. The fact that you believe that the US is about to act in bad faith say, I do feel we have been sufficiently warned (wikipedia Bernanke Doctrine) and the biggest losers only gained that position through material disadvantage of the US.

(I also have a very severe practical argument against self-sufficiency in that i have no idea how to work a washing machine etc.)

Abrak,

I LOVE CAPITALISM!!! I love it.

But what we have today is big government and big business monopolising everything, at the point of a gun.

I've always gone out to work everyday. Never taken any government benefits. I believe that real education and hard work, personal industriousness makes the world a better place.

What I will not support is the deliberate failure and deceitfulness and willful criminal behaviour of others.

Self-sufficiency is a myth really. Even in other dominions of the animal kingdom do species work together for a mutually beneficial end. Ants for example. I like this. I do. It makes sense. It's efficient.

Really I just want to grow some marrows.

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Abrak,

I LOVE CAPITALISM!!! I love it.

But what we have today is big government and big business monopolising everything, at the point of a gun.

I've always gone out to work everyday. Never taken any government benefits. I believe that real education and hard work, personal industriousness makes the world a better place.

What I will not support is the deliberate failure and deceitfulness and willful criminal behaviour of others.

Self-sufficiency is a myth really. Even in other dominions of the animal kingdom do species work together for a mutually beneficial end. Ants for example. I like this. I do. It makes sense. It's efficient.

Really I just want to grow some marrows.

MJP,

I have every sympathy with your view and to the extent that we have been lectured endlessly on crony capitalism and monetary discipline by a country that is about to take advantage of this through the maximum extent possible, I hope they at least feel guilty to the extent they are deliberately taking advantage of the poor to enhance the rich and they have no right to lecture the world on business ethics.

This is why I am so disappointed in the fact they simply do not see they are acting in bad faith and their economic forecasts implicitly assume that poorer countries will continue to finance unsustainable growth (and that they are presumably qualified to explain why.)

As you say it is enough to want you to go away and grow marrows.

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Abrak,

I LOVE CAPITALISM!!! I love it.

But what we have today is big government and big business monopolising everything, at the point of a gun.

I've always gone out to work everyday. Never taken any government benefits. I believe that real education and hard work, personal industriousness makes the world a better place.

What I will not support is the deliberate failure and deceitfulness and willful criminal behaviour of others.

Self-sufficiency is a myth really. Even in other dominions of the animal kingdom do species work together for a mutually beneficial end. Ants for example. I like this. I do. It makes sense. It's efficient.

Really I just want to grow some marrows.

MJP,

I have every sympathy with your view and to the extent that we have been lectured endlessly on crony capitalism and monetary discipline by a country that is about to take advantage of this through the maximum extent possible, I hope they at least feel guilty to the extent they are deliberately taking advantage of the poor to enhance the rich and they have no right to lecture the world on business ethics.

This is why I am so disappointed in the fact they simply do not see they are acting in bad faith and their economic forecasts implicitly assume that poorer countries will continue to finance unsustainable growth (and that they are presumably qualified to explain why.)

As you say it is enough to want you to go away and grow marrows.

Yep!

I'm on strike!

I'm building a bamboo Trebuchet into which the marrows shall be loaded, aimed straight at the City of London.

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Actually the short answer is you can both ( MJP & Abrak ) have what you want of course.

Like Abrak does not want to fix his car but instead wants to do his business & pay to have his car fixed.

MJP does not want to buy veggies so grows them.

Eventually it will go to some form of trade or barter. The current one where you sell for $$$ of course works perfectly till the govt gets their hands into it. Then it all goes to He!!

We have just been taxed & regulated into oblivion is all that is really the matter with this western world today :)

Then to make it all a million times worse they have taken our taxes & reg $$$ & bought wars with it in our name.

When there was not enough to fund their wars they printed even more.............. which is as we know an IOU that they seem to think we agreed on?

Odd world eh?

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For me it's an extension of gardening and it's fun to put together simple engineering, like my glorious soakaways with Thai pots (big water butt things made of concrete) on top.

The water from the roof guttering goes into the pot via a pipe. When the pot's full, it simply overflows and goes into the soakaway underneath. Then into the groundwater where I can pump it using my deep borehole. Looks great too, a real garden feature. It's got big white pebbles around the base.

I would love to see a pic of that.

You know water is always the biggest/most important thing.

We get a lot of rain here so it is no problem.

Without going too far OT I wanted to say that in China they also use grey water systems for gardening.

Just catch all the shower or sink water in a tank. Sand filter if you want. Then you have a lot of water for the garden or even flushing toilets.

I mean after all it is just soapy water & after a sand filter not even that.

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For me it's an extension of gardening and it's fun to put together simple engineering, like my glorious soakaways with Thai pots (big water butt things made of concrete) on top.

The water from the roof guttering goes into the pot via a pipe. When the pot's full, it simply overflows and goes into the soakaway underneath. Then into the groundwater where I can pump it using my deep borehole. Looks great too, a real garden feature. It's got big white pebbles around the base.

I would love to see a pic of that.

You know water is always the biggest/most important thing.

We get a lot of rain here so it is no problem.

Without going too far OT I wanted to say that in China they also use grey water systems for gardening.

Just catch all the shower or sink water in a tank. Sand filter if you want. Then you have a lot of water for the garden or even flushing toilets.

I mean after all it is just soapy water & after a sand filter not even that.

Here you go. The pots sit on their own foundations, a 1m ring on a deep concrete foundation. Inside the 1m ring are 0.84m rings (3 deep, 1.5m). All rings have netted holes in them to allow water to pass through but not the gravel.

Oh, you need a few biscuits on there to carry the weight. These pots will go over 1.5 tonnes when full.

Pots_on_soakaways.pdf

Edited by MJP
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Here you go. The pots sit on their own foundations, a 1m ring on a deep concrete foundation. Inside the 1m ring are 0.84m rings (3 deep, 1.5m). All rings have netted holes in them to allow water to pass through but not the gravel.

Oh, you need a few biscuits on there to carry the weight. These pots will go over 1.5 tonnes when full.

Wow very cool

You have to love TL with those SS down pipes too :)

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Here you go. The pots sit on their own foundations, a 1m ring on a deep concrete foundation. Inside the 1m ring are 0.84m rings (3 deep, 1.5m). All rings have netted holes in them to allow water to pass through but not the gravel.

Oh, you need a few biscuits on there to carry the weight. These pots will go over 1.5 tonnes when full.

Wow very cool

You have to love TL with those SS down pipes too :)

I know. It's the only thing they had. I'm going to wrap them in muslin and grow moss on them. The pots were 750 Baht each, rings were 80 baht x 3 + 120 x 1, biscuits 80 x 2, gravel 400 Baht, pebbles 90 Baht x 5, so 2120 per pot and soakaway, allow 700 for a downpipe (fitted), so around £55 for each pot set up.

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I know. It's the only thing they had. I'm going to wrap them in muslin and grow moss on them. The pots were 750 Baht each, rings were 80 baht x 3 + 120 x 1, biscuits 80 x 2, gravel 400 Baht, pebbles 90 Baht x 5, so 2120 per pot and soakaway, allow 700 for a downpipe (fitted), so around £55 for each pot set up.

All looks great !

Just maybe get some of those small fish that eat mosquito eggs?

Remember Dengue breeds in standing water eh? :)

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I know. It's the only thing they had. I'm going to wrap them in muslin and grow moss on them. The pots were 750 Baht each, rings were 80 baht x 3 + 120 x 1, biscuits 80 x 2, gravel 400 Baht, pebbles 90 Baht x 5, so 2120 per pot and soakaway, allow 700 for a downpipe (fitted), so around £55 for each pot set up.

All looks great !

Just maybe get some of those small fish that eat mosquito eggs?

Remember Dengue breeds in standing water eh? :)

Oh you GENIUS!!!!

Yes, fish! I was going to put a pond in, but I sick of hand digging. Don't want to fork out on a fish tank, YES!!!!

No I hate the SS pipe, it's going green!

All the Thai's thought I was barking mad until they saw the lot put together. Now they come round more. :D

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