Help . . . Is The £ Going Into Free-fall?

[russianrobert]

But with the Dollar so strong............

Slightly off topic but there's a lot of people around who this time last year were betting we would never, ever be saying that again.

How time flys.

Let's get back to reality, shall we?

We'll see

Edited September 2, 2008 by russianrobert

[Naam]

If I knew the answer then I would be out there buying or selling currency futures. With all that political risk boiling over right now, you may yet see a lower Baht.

The market is expecting a rate cut by the BoE as the economy is getting worse.

There are limits on ATM or OTC cash transactions. I am quite happy with HSBC letting me send wires to Thailand without the need of filling in paperwork. Good luck. Hope you will be happy with your purchase!

five trading days after the BOT hiked rates?

sorry! i mixed up BoE with BOT

Edited September 2, 2008 by Naam

[Naam]

Let me put this another way, the future for Sterling is about as bad as it has ever been for the the past fifteen years and the prognosis for the future is dire. As we speak the Pound is around the 1.80 Dollar level and the next resistance is around 1.75 - as the Dollar climbs against the Pound so the Pound loses against the Baht. If I was in the situation of needing to transfer Pounds into Baht in any great quantity I would assess whether I really really had to do it and if I had a choice, I wouldn't. If I didn't have a choice then I would do it today because tomorrow the rate will be worse. Don't get hung up on watching small ups and downs of the Baht value against the Pound because those are just normal trading fluctuations - the trend is however very clearly down with almost no potential for an upside.

I find it quite interesting that the poster is concerned with a marginal fluctuation of the pound vs. baht for his current transaction, and yet he seems not to be concerned at all with the far more serious situstion of having his assets in pounds at a time when the pound has just begun a major down cycle! This brings a whole new meaning to the old English saying "penny wise and pound foolish"

never argue with a Brit when it concerns the Pound!

[cclub75]

Let's get back to reality, shall we?

Spot on ! A small blip on the USDIndex radar, and people go crazy.

"Dollar so strong". Ah ah ah, indeed it's laughable.

Same issue with oil. We went from 140 to 110 now... Great. The crisis is over.

But we were at 51 USD per barrel in... january 2007 !

So dja yen yen the bears...

As for the GBP... I would note that :

-the real estate excesses were worst in UK than in the US...

-the GBP, as a currency, has absolutly not the political/geopolitical support that the USD enjoys.

-therefore : when the sxxx hits the fan (now), the GBP is likely to suffer much more than the USD (artificially helped by oil, and by its "mass effect" [reserve currency blablabla] etc.)

Edited September 2, 2008 by cclub75

[Naam]

and never argue with a Brit when it concerns his real estate in UK. every child knows that UK property can only go UP and UP and UP (except during the periods when it's falling).

[chiang mai]

Given that USD is way oversold and significant resistance exists at 1.80 and 1.75 I would guess that the current rally is going to run out of steam in the not too distant future, the question then becomes, where and what next. There's an argument in favour of getting out of USD at some point between those two resistance levels and moving into EUR for a couple of reasons. One reason is that whilst EUR/USD has been falling there is a multi-year trendline approaching which could reverse the trend. Secondly, given their respective interest rate strategies there must be a strong potential for the EUR to achieve new highs against USD in the short/medium term. Does anyone else see that potential?

[Naam]

"Dollar so strong". Ah ah ah, indeed it's laughable. Same issue with oil. We went from 140 to 110 now... Great. The crisis is over.

But we were at 51 USD per barrel in... january 2007 !

we were at 8 (EIGHT) dollars in autumn 1986 and then Sheikh Ahmed Zaki al-Yamani was fired. later he opened some sort of energy consulting agency in London and predicted in the middle/late 90s (don't remember anymore exactly when) 3 (THREE) dollars for a barrel of crude. that made the cover page of "The Economist".

[Naam]

Given that USD is way oversold and significant resistance exists at 1.80 and 1.75 I would guess that the current rally is going to run out of steam in the not too distant future, the question then becomes, where and what next. There's an argument in favour of getting out of USD at some point between those two resistance levels and moving into EUR for a couple of reasons. One reason is that whilst EUR/USD has been falling there is a multi-year trendline approaching which could reverse the trend. Secondly, given their respective interest rate strategies there must be a strong potential for the EUR to achieve new highs against USD in the short/medium term. Does anyone else see that potential?

i don't. but that depends of course on the definition of "short/medium" term.

"Given that USD is way oversold" you mean GBP, isn't it?

[chiang mai]

Given that USD is way oversold and significant resistance exists at 1.80 and 1.75 I would guess that the current rally is going to run out of steam in the not too distant future, the question then becomes, where and what next. There's an argument in favour of getting out of USD at some point between those two resistance levels and moving into EUR for a couple of reasons. One reason is that whilst EUR/USD has been falling there is a multi-year trendline approaching which could reverse the trend. Secondly, given their respective interest rate strategies there must be a strong potential for the EUR to achieve new highs against USD in the short/medium term. Does anyone else see that potential?

i don't. but that depends of course on the definition of "short/medium" term.

"Given that USD is way oversold" you mean GBP, isn't it?

Apologies, trying to unravel all these strategies is clearly not doing me any good - what I had intended to say and should of course have written was that USD was OVER BOUGHT, not over sold.

Edited September 2, 2008 by chiang mai

[Lopburi99]

Let me put this another way, the future for Sterling is about as bad as it has ever been for the the past fifteen years and the prognosis for the future is dire. As we speak the Pound is around the 1.80 Dollar level and the next resistance is around 1.75 - as the Dollar climbs against the Pound so the Pound loses against the Baht. If I was in the situation of needing to transfer Pounds into Baht in any great quantity I would assess whether I really really had to do it and if I had a choice, I wouldn't. If I didn't have a choice then I would do it today because tomorrow the rate will be worse. Don't get hung up on watching small ups and downs of the Baht value against the Pound because those are just normal trading fluctuations - the trend is however very clearly down with almost no potential for an upside.

I find it quite interesting that the poster is concerned with a marginal fluctuation of the pound vs. baht for his current transaction, and yet he seems not to be concerned at all with the far more serious situstion of having his assets in pounds at a time when the pound has just begun a major down cycle! This brings a whole new meaning to the old English saying "penny wise and pound foolish"

never argue with a Brit when it concerns the Pound!

Good Lord, amost everybody agrees the trend is clearly downward, so why the hesitation to transfer the funds now? And even if the trend reversed somewhat, as VegasVic pointed out, his assets in pounds will be shored up. C'mon, this is a no brainer for him. It is greed which is the archenemy of reason, and greed does us all in again and again by making us delay just to possibly gain an extra few %s (sure has for me anyway). As someone else said, do it now and don't look back! My 2 cents.

[lannarebirth]

Given that USD is way oversold and significant resistance exists at 1.80 and 1.75 I would guess that the current rally is going to run out of steam in the not too distant future, the question then becomes, where and what next. There's an argument in favour of getting out of USD at some point between those two resistance levels and moving into EUR for a couple of reasons. One reason is that whilst EUR/USD has been falling there is a multi-year trendline approaching which could reverse the trend. Secondly, given their respective interest rate strategies there must be a strong potential for the EUR to achieve new highs against USD in the short/medium term. Does anyone else see that potential?

The $USD was oversold, but it's been undergoing a "running correction". Excesses are being worked off while maintaining high relative price. 1.80 was weak long term support and 1.74 is the 50% retracement of it's multi-year run higher. Support is often found at at 50% retracements, but it hasn't shown an inclination to pause at support yet.

My wild guess is, that the GBP will find some support near 1.74-1.75, and if the $USD Index contimues to work off it's excesses in a running correction, then it will be another currencys turn to take the hit. Perhaps the Euro. That is if the running correction continues. The $USD is certainly due a pause, but it may not come soon.

I'm due to be spectacularly wrong soon.

[Naam]

The $USD was oversold, but it's been undergoing a "running correction".

i disagree LRB. in my opinion the expressions "overbought" or "oversold" can/should not be used when the period is very long, e.g. USD fell more or less continuously vs. EUR and GBP (and some other currencies) over a period of 7 (SEVEN) YEARS.

[PCA]

I was just thinking about our friend PaulPMG(PGM?) who entertained in another thread regarding the Australian Dollar, distributing the views of his company and the financial services they provide claiming to successfully surf the currency galaxy and now where might he have gone? Things are nicely moving like they do not too often and where is the expert now, hehehe. Paulie I am sure you were heavily selling GBP,AUD and EUR but wont tell us until the move is over, right? Anyway I just want to tell that you are not different than the others if you dont advise when there is need and interest. If you guys want to achieve something you need to lean out of the window otherwise nobody can see, judge and start to consider about realibility and trustworthyness of your services. Our money against your ass, thats the game. But who knows maybe you are just for your summer holiday and my critic is not apropriate.

sorry a bit offtopic but maybe not

Edited September 2, 2008 by PCA

[lannarebirth]

The $USD was oversold, but it's been undergoing a "running correction".

i disagree LRB. in my opinion the expressions "overbought" or "oversold" can/should not be used when the period is very long, e.g. USD fell more or less continuously vs. EUR and GBP (and some other currencies) over a period of 7 (SEVEN) YEARS.

Six years, eight months and 12 days, but I hadn't really noticed.

[Naam]

The $USD was oversold, but it's been undergoing a "running correction".

i disagree LRB. in my opinion the expressions "overbought" or "oversold" can/should not be used when the period is very long, e.g. USD fell more or less continuously vs. EUR and GBP (and some other currencies) over a period of 7 (SEVEN) YEARS.

Six years, eight months and 12 days, but I hadn't really noticed.

the older one gets the faster time flies

[VegasVic]

Given that USD is way oversold and significant resistance exists at 1.80 and 1.75 I would guess that the current rally is going to run out of steam in the not too distant future, the question then becomes, where and what next. There's an argument in favour of getting out of USD at some point between those two resistance levels and moving into EUR for a couple of reasons. One reason is that whilst EUR/USD has been falling there is a multi-year trendline approaching which could reverse the trend. Secondly, given their respective interest rate strategies there must be a strong potential for the EUR to achieve new highs against USD in the short/medium term. Does anyone else see that potential?

CM, I realize that you meant that the Dollar was way overbought (short term), but what you seem to fail to realize is that the Dollar was way way oversold for the past 6-7 years. As far as that resisitance level for the pound at $1.75 or the Euro at $1.45 so often refered to here, apparently the worldwide FOREX traders were not made aware of those resistance levels because it looks like the pound will be trading in the $1.72's before the day is out and the Euro is looking to go below $1.43. There certainly could be some short term "dead cat bounce" for the EURO and the Pound, but the longer term trend for both curencies is down vs. the Dollar. A weakening Pound and EURO may very well be the saving grace for many European economies that are headed for some very tough times over the next 12-18 months, as unemployment rises throughout Europe at least the weakening currencies will bolster employment in the export sector.

[Naam]

As far as that resisitance level for the pound at $1.75 or the Euro at $1.45 so often refered to here, apparently the worldwide FOREX traders were not made aware of those resistance levels because it looks like the pound will be trading in the $1.72's before the day is out and the Euro is looking to go below $1.43

right on the EUR but not on GBP Vic.

[chiang mai]

Given that USD is way oversold and significant resistance exists at 1.80 and 1.75 I would guess that the current rally is going to run out of steam in the not too distant future, the question then becomes, where and what next. There's an argument in favour of getting out of USD at some point between those two resistance levels and moving into EUR for a couple of reasons. One reason is that whilst EUR/USD has been falling there is a multi-year trendline approaching which could reverse the trend. Secondly, given their respective interest rate strategies there must be a strong potential for the EUR to achieve new highs against USD in the short/medium term. Does anyone else see that potential?

CM, I realize that you meant that the Dollar was way overbought (short term), but what you seem to fail to realize is that the Dollar was way way oversold for the past 6-7 years. As far as that resisitance level for the pound at $1.75 or the Euro at $1.45 so often refered to here, apparently the worldwide FOREX traders were not made aware of those resistance levels because it looks like the pound will be trading in the $1.72's before the day is out and the Euro is looking to go below $1.43. There certainly could be some short term "dead cat bounce" for the EURO and the Pound, but the longer term trend for both curencies is down vs. the Dollar. A weakening Pound and EURO may very well be the saving grace for many European economies that are headed for some very tough times over the next 12-18 months, as unemployment rises throughout Europe at least the weakening currencies will bolster employment in the export sector.

You're a little off the mark with GBP trading at 1.72 as Naam has said, it's currently playing with 1.76. The alternatives to making a blind guess at the directional moves of a currency are far and few between but fortunately one option is to look at trends and history to see if it offers some clues - as one wise sage has already said on this forum, it's about improving the odds in the decision making. The multi-year trend line was an important point to watch but USD managed to march right through it - there will be others where the outcome is not the same. In the meantime, folks like me continue to plan and play with what if scenario's in an attempt to come up with a strategy that will protect our investments and who knows, maybe even make some profit. Agreed that a weaker Pound may aid the UK economy but I look at these things from a very selfish viewpoint to try and determine what the impact will be on me personally. Finally, you may have noticed yesterday that GBP rallied for a good part of the day - some of that rally was because of people like me who sold dollars and took profit from the earlier weeks (although I did buy back in later in the day) and some of it will have been because of traders globally taking a view that the multi-year trend line offered support that was sustainable.

[VegasVic]

Given that USD is way oversold and significant resistance exists at 1.80 and 1.75 I would guess that the current rally is going to run out of steam in the not too distant future, the question then becomes, where and what next. There's an argument in favour of getting out of USD at some point between those two resistance levels and moving into EUR for a couple of reasons. One reason is that whilst EUR/USD has been falling there is a multi-year trendline approaching which could reverse the trend. Secondly, given their respective interest rate strategies there must be a strong potential for the EUR to achieve new highs against USD in the short/medium term. Does anyone else see that potential?

CM, I realize that you meant that the Dollar was way overbought (short term), but what you seem to fail to realize is that the Dollar was way way oversold for the past 6-7 years. As far as that resisitance level for the pound at $1.75 or the Euro at $1.45 so often refered to here, apparently the worldwide FOREX traders were not made aware of those resistance levels because it looks like the pound will be trading in the $1.72's before the day is out and the Euro is looking to go below $1.43. There certainly could be some short term "dead cat bounce" for the EURO and the Pound, but the longer term trend for both curencies is down vs. the Dollar. A weakening Pound and EURO may very well be the saving grace for many European economies that are headed for some very tough times over the next 12-18 months, as unemployment rises throughout Europe at least the weakening currencies will bolster employment in the export sector.

You're a little off the mark with GBP trading at 1.72 as Naam has said, it's currently playing with 1.76. The alternatives to making a blind guess at the directional moves of a currency are far and few between but fortunately one option is to look at trends and history to see if it offers some clues - as one wise sage has already said on this forum, it's about improving the odds in the decision making. The multi-year trend line was an important point to watch but USD managed to march right through it - there will be others where the outcome is not the same. In the meantime, folks like me continue to plan and play with what if scenario's in an attempt to come up with a strategy that will protect our investments and who knows, maybe even make some profit. Agreed that a weaker Pound may aid the UK economy but I look at these things from a very selfish viewpoint to try and determine what the impact will be on me personally. Finally, you may have noticed yesterday that GBP rallied for a good part of the day - some of that rally was because of people like me who sold dollars and took profit from the earlier weeks (although I did buy back in later in the day) and some of it will have been because of traders globally taking a view that the multi-year trend line offered support that was sustainable.

My most humble apologies! I thought I saw the pound in the mid $1.73's on the CNBC ticker earlier today, apparently it was in the mid $1.75's (maybe its time for a trip to the eye doctor? ) and it appears that it didn't erode much more during the day because it closed at $1.756. The EURO on the other hand did indeed break down below the $1.43 barrier. I agree that you have to look at the long term trends, as a mattter of fact that was precisely my point in my last post. With all the talk about this dollar rebound being short lived and the Dollar being overbought and the pound and EURO coming back to make new highs, I felt the need to interject and point out that the worm has turned for the greenback and a long term multi year uptrend for the Dollar has begun. Thats not to say that the EURO won't bounce back to $1.52 next month or the Pound bounce back to $1.85, but it will be more of a dead cat bounce. Just as I told the gold bugs here when gold was $1000/ounce that gold is headed down, but that it won't go down in a straight line it will make a succesion of lower highs and lower lows as it decends, so to the Pound and EURO will make a succesion of lower highs and lower lows. Don't get me wrong I am not looking for the price of the Pound or EURO to get cut in half like what will eventually happen to gold, but I do expect the EURO to settle in a $1.20-$1.25 range over the next couple of years and the Pound in the $1.50-$1.60 range. As far as playing the daily fluctuations in the FOREX markets, I will leave that gutwreching experience to you my friend, making 8.5% off my oil trusts and playing golf is more my speed these days. The best of luck to you in your currency trading, I do think for the longer term that many folks out there sitting on EURO and Pound denominated assetes might want to diversify and get some Dollar exposure (just in case my prediction proves to be correct).

[lannarebirth]

Given that USD is way oversold and significant resistance exists at 1.80 and 1.75 I would guess that the current rally is going to run out of steam in the not too distant future, the question then becomes, where and what next. There's an argument in favour of getting out of USD at some point between those two resistance levels and moving into EUR for a couple of reasons. One reason is that whilst EUR/USD has been falling there is a multi-year trendline approaching which could reverse the trend. Secondly, given their respective interest rate strategies there must be a strong potential for the EUR to achieve new highs against USD in the short/medium term. Does anyone else see that potential?

CM, I realize that you meant that the Dollar was way overbought (short term), but what you seem to fail to realize is that the Dollar was way way oversold for the past 6-7 years. As far as that resisitance level for the pound at $1.75 or the Euro at $1.45 so often refered to here, apparently the worldwide FOREX traders were not made aware of those resistance levels because it looks like the pound will be trading in the $1.72's before the day is out and the Euro is looking to go below $1.43. There certainly could be some short term "dead cat bounce" for the EURO and the Pound, but the longer term trend for both curencies is down vs. the Dollar. A weakening Pound and EURO may very well be the saving grace for many European economies that are headed for some very tough times over the next 12-18 months, as unemployment rises throughout Europe at least the weakening currencies will bolster employment in the export sector.

How can you say this about the Euro, 2 months after it's made it's all time highs against the $USD?

While I might have a tendency to agree with some of your other statements, there's no evidence that any of it will come to pass and it is only a bias.

Also, now that everyone has become a technical analysis expert, please learn the difference between support and resistance.

here's a good place to start:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school

Edited September 5, 2008 by lannarebirth

[chiang mai]

Given that USD is way oversold and significant resistance exists at 1.80 and 1.75 I would guess that the current rally is going to run out of steam in the not too distant future, the question then becomes, where and what next. There's an argument in favour of getting out of USD at some point between those two resistance levels and moving into EUR for a couple of reasons. One reason is that whilst EUR/USD has been falling there is a multi-year trendline approaching which could reverse the trend. Secondly, given their respective interest rate strategies there must be a strong potential for the EUR to achieve new highs against USD in the short/medium term. Does anyone else see that potential?

CM, I realize that you meant that the Dollar was way overbought (short term), but what you seem to fail to realize is that the Dollar was way way oversold for the past 6-7 years. As far as that resisitance level for the pound at $1.75 or the Euro at $1.45 so often refered to here, apparently the worldwide FOREX traders were not made aware of those resistance levels because it looks like the pound will be trading in the $1.72's before the day is out and the Euro is looking to go below $1.43. There certainly could be some short term "dead cat bounce" for the EURO and the Pound, but the longer term trend for both curencies is down vs. the Dollar. A weakening Pound and EURO may very well be the saving grace for many European economies that are headed for some very tough times over the next 12-18 months, as unemployment rises throughout Europe at least the weakening currencies will bolster employment in the export sector.

How can you say this about the Euro, 2 months after it's made it's all time highs against the $USD?

While I might have a tendency to agree with some of your other statements, there's no evidence that any of it will come to pass and it is only a bias.

Also, now that everyone has become a technical analysis expert, please learn the difference between support and resistance.

here's a good place to start:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school

"now that everyone has become a technical analysis expert".

I for one don't claim anything of the sort, far from it. But I will eagerly digest anything and everything that you want to throw my way that helps sends me in that direction.

[Flapman]

mixture of the two!

And if you have never done a transfer before, make sure that you:

• do a test transfer with a small amount of money to test the system
  
• transfer hard currency to Thailand and do the exchange in Thailand
  
• obtain a certificate of transfer for each amount with the stated aim of buying a house clearly indicated.
  

I understand that if ever you wish to re-export your THBs you will need a currency conversion form which shows that you brought GBP/USD into Thailand from o/seas. So I

went into Bangkok Bank, Tha Pae, Chiang Mai and the lady there said one needs to transfer USD20k or more to qualify for a forex cert from BBank.

[philstone]

It does not look good the Pound. Here is why The English Government gives to much away. Ie free medical free housing free heating allowance and even more for illegals in there country. People come from all over the world for free money and free medical. Also England gives to much to there old citizens who have so much they are able to get young wives and even pay these wives in Thailand . A country can not give away money and expected to have any left. What does England make a car a plane grow food how do they get money to give.

[taxexile]

``Sterling is really seen as the currency-market dog, if you like, being seen to be sold for any reason you can possibly think of,'' said Jeremy Stretch, senior strategist in London at Rabobank International, the third-largest Dutch bank. ``It's difficult to find too many ways to be positive about sterling.''

The pound was at $1.7634 by 10:35 a.m. in London, from $1.8211 on Aug. 29, after earlier slipping to $1.7538, the lowest level since April 2006. It has dropped 3.4 percent in the past week, extending the longest losing streak since December 2005. It was at 80.77 pence per euro, from 80.58 pence a week ago. It fell to 81.88 pence yesterday, the weakest since the single European currency debuted in 1999.

from bloomberg.com today.

[pauls2979]

It does not look good the Pound. Here is why The English Government gives to much away. Ie free medical free housing free heating allowance and even more for illegals in there country. People come from all over the world for free money and free medical. Also England gives to much to there old citizens who have so much they are able to get young wives and even pay these wives in Thailand . A country can not give away money and expected to have any left. What does England make a car a plane grow food how do they get money to give.

IMO good post

well we do make good television shows , ie nature documentaries , as for anything else ? anyone

[Familyonthemove]

It does not look good the Pound. Here is why The English Government gives to much away. Ie free medical free housing free heating allowance and even more for illegals in there country. People come from all over the world for free money and free medical. Also England gives to much to there old citizens who have so much they are able to get young wives and even pay these wives in Thailand . A country can not give away money and expected to have any left. What does England make a car a plane grow food how do they get money to give.

IMO good post

well we do make good television shows , ie nature documentaries , as for anything else ? anyone

We complain better than anyone else in the world.

And London must have even more Starbucks than Bangkok?

And there's all those lovely speed cameras.

And don't forget, we gave the world the Morris Marina!

With all that going for us, I'm surprised the Pounds not doing better.

[VegasVic]

It does not look good the Pound. Here is why The English Government gives to much away. Ie free medical free housing free heating allowance and even more for illegals in there country. People come from all over the world for free money and free medical. Also England gives to much to there old citizens who have so much they are able to get young wives and even pay these wives in Thailand . A country can not give away money and expected to have any left. What does England make a car a plane grow food how do they get money to give.

IMO good post

well we do make good television shows , ie nature documentaries , as for anything else ? anyone

Oh c'mon now, England has given us so much more: the beatles, Fish-n-chips,blood sausage,bass ale,mutton, monty python, Benny hill and the queen mother bobble head doll On a more serious note, creeping socialisim is indeed an insideous and cancerous disease as we in the states are finding out. Given its current track, the U.S. will likely be in the same dire straights as G.B. within the next 50 years, if Obama is elected then it could occur within a generation. I guess all Democracies have a half life, and just as G.B. had its swan song in the early part of the 1900's, so to the U.S. will have its swan song at some point in the not too distant future. As far as the pound goes it is just like any other curency and has its down cycles just as it has its up cycles, the only difference this time is that this down cycle got started with a very rapid drop in valuation.

[JimsKnight]

Agreed, the old dude pensioners rattling about in LOS must feeling the pain on this!

If it dips below 57 b to £ I will be reconsidering LOS as a potential winter retreat this November

[cmsally]

Essentially living in one place and depending on currency from another (exchange rates) is a dangerous situation.

Wherever it may be in the world.

There certainly seems to be an influx of foreigners coming to live here since the exchange rates favoured them (post 1997). I hope they weren't depending on that.

If we are going back to the old days of 45Bt to the pound they might be in for a rough ride.

[chiang mai]

Essentially living in one place and depending on currency from another (exchange rates) is a dangerous situation.

Wherever it may be in the world.

There certainly seems to be an influx of foreigners coming to live here since the exchange rates favoured them (post 1997). I hope they weren't depending on that.

If we are going back to the old days of 45Bt to the pound they might be in for a rough ride.

From my perspective it's a question of knowing at what exchange rate Thailand cease to be good value. Certainly it is so at 75, 70 and 65 but at 60, 55 and 50 it becomes marginal. At anything below 50 it probably is not.