Chiang Mai Tourism Hit Hard

[Lordfoul]

And on the eight day the Lord invented Tax write offs.

I just cant see that anyone, indigineous or not would operate and run a loss making business. Please back up your theory by naming these altruistic ventures so I can abuse their munificence. Perhaps theyll pay me just to keep these people busy.

[rishi]

I just cant see that anyone, indigineous or not would operate and run a loss making business...

No, and probably there are very few second hand bookshops, internet cafees, coffee shops, French micro cuisines, etc... that actually do make actual LOSSES .... I know, this city is flooded with guys running small street level businesses (I used to be one, and partly still am) of the kind that neither they nor any of their competitors can possibly make a decent living out of. But running a business you can't live by is different from running a business you loose money on.

Let's e.g. take a (quarter/semi/full) retiree that loves books and buys/rent a bookshop with accommodations upstairs. Let's say he bought the business as turn key - ready to go for 3-500,000 Baht. Well, if he never sold a single book all of those 3-500,000 Baht would obviously be money gone from the bank-account... But that's also about it, money loosing wise... Of course, if he changes his mind 2 weeks later and sells the shop for half of what he paid, he'd have lost (relatively) big, but on the other hand - if he keeps it going with a measly 30-50,000 baht a month turnover and a 15% margin, he would not only have had free books to read, but the business would have paid the utility bills and part of the rent, which are costs he'd have had anyways.... If he hangs on long enough there'll come a day where the balance on his bank-account will be larger than if he'd never spend those 3-500,000 Baht in the first place... And, there actually do exist people that enjoys life much more in an easy chair in the back of a dusty bookshop than lying on a dirty beach full of ice cream and massage hawkers - so even if the bank account went down a bit on the adventure, he might have had a (to him) more enjoyable couple of retirement years.

Not exactly a great business model for the young ones with their career in front of them - but lots of (semi)oldies with their career behind them and with a supporting pension seems to enjoy life in Chiang Mai in this manner... And exactly this circumstance is what makes it hard for those of us that are too old to make a career, but too young to be supported by pensions.

[Ulysses G.]

You certainly seem to know a lot about business theory, but there is a lot of stuff about bookshops and the expenses of running them that you don't realize or are not mentioning here - for example, the huge expense of importing books from overseas - but suffice it to say that a good number of shops have folded in the last few years because the owners could not make enough to live.

I know one that looks very nice and is in a decent area - and I don't own it - but does not even make enough to pay its electric bill every month. I'm not sure how that would fit into your scenario.

My guess is that a lot of bars and restaurants in Chiang Mai also fall into this category.

Edited September 6, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[Bill97]

running a business you can't live by is different from running a business you loose money on

If the business does not earn enough to pay its manager/owner (runner) a living wage, it is deluded accounting to suggest that it is not loosing money when the manager/owner/runner is in fact subsidizing it by accepting a below market wage.

[PeaceBlondie]

This is not directly linked to tourism, but I see construction everywhere, in Santitam, inside the moat, at the various ring roads. Entire moobahns being constructed, other moobahns filling in their vacant lots. If this town is not booming, what explains all the construction? There are, if anything, too many businesses competing for the same baht.

[Bill97]

If this town is not booming, what explains all the construction?

another real estate bubble

[Ulysses G.]

All these buildings started being planned when Thaksin was in power and trying to make Chiang Mai a major center for tourism. Things really picked up here when he was in office. I bet they wish they had waited a little before investing their hard earned money.

Edited September 6, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[Lordfoul]

That may have kicked things off, But there are several buildings that have been planned here since he was removed. I don't see any slow down until there is an actual crash.

All these buildings started being planned when Thaksin was in power and trying to make Chiang Mai a major center for tourism. Things really picked up here when he was in office. I bet they wish they had waited a little before investing their hard earned money.

[Ulysses G.]

Maybe they planned on Thaksin coming back.

[Lordfoul]

I can not argue that

Maybe they planned on Thaksin coming back.

[papajohn]

Please do not shoot the messenger, I try to be a realist. I am Joe Blow from Europe, USA or Aussie.

It is now September and I need to make reservatioms with the airlines for my vacation in CM in November because I read or hear about the wonderful festival in Chiang Mai called Loy Krathong.

I want to go and see it. I see on the TV news that there is blood in the steets of Bangkok, the Capitol City and large gatherings of people in protest. I see 15,000 tourist stranded at airports because of the protests. The RR are shut down. I only know Thailand, I don't know East, West , Souih or North. What do I do? How many people around the world are right now asking that question and saying to themselves " Do I want to chance it" ?

I think we all know the answer. I feel bad for the Thais and business owners who rely on the " High Season" . I hope I am wrong but that is my vision for the next few months. Chok Dee.

[rishi]

What I see in my 'shop' is a rise in medium to low budget patrons from places like East Europe, South Europe, Middle East, Russia, SE Asia - all countries from where my tv-screen has shown lots of bloodshed in the streets throughout the years I sat watching television in my comfy home country. I'm sure seasoned comfort travelers will avoid anything that just smells a tiny bit of disturbance and thus cancel trips by the plenty due to the current unrest, but I don't see any downturn 'cause I've never catered to that kind of guys anyways.

[Ulysses G.]

rishi asked why his shop is doing more business, while many others are doing less.

Number one, it is obvious he did his homework before opening a business and learned what he could in advance. Number two, it sounds like he either chose the right customers, or just got lucky. Either way, congratulations!

[aries27]

For what my two cents is worth, may I say, you guys should give the Thais a break.

Coming from the 1986 and 2001 Philippine "People Power" experiences, I could relate.

I am not exactly sure who are the good guys and the bad guys here.. but here's the thing...

In both 1986 and 2001, both the ruling administrations were perceived to be corrupt/bad guys and the opposition (and the mass of people who supported them) felt they had to do what they had to do. While we know the decision was entirely in our hands, we really appreciated that the western media sided with the opposition and the people. The Time article doesn't look that much sympathetic, does it?

As I said, I am not sure whose side is right. But it should be where the majority of the people decide to go. Tourism would suffer. In the Philippines' case, it took us years to erase the perception that ours is a "politically unstable" country. Truly unfair...but that is how life is.

There were even reports then that when Philippines was having a problem, neighboring countries were silently applauding (cuz they know their tourism will be the beneficiary). I do not know if this was true at all. In fairness, I haven't felt that perception from the Filipinos towards Thailand. If ever, we would even be more sympathetic.

Whatever the outcome, I think this would be good for Thailand. And you guys, supposedly coming from more matured democracy should know better than to be not supportive.. But then this discussion is I guess for farangs' consumption only..so I guess you're excused..

[Ulysses G.]

Tourism in the Philippines is a tiny fraction of the rest of S.E. Asia. I really doubt that any other of these countries were anything other than sympathetic to their plight.

Edited September 7, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[aries27]

Gee... I guess I was fishing for that? I was referring to mid-1980s when the tourism situation in other SEAsian countries were just about to take off too. Where were you at that time, if I may ask?

Edited September 7, 2008 by aries27

[Ulysses G.]

In San Francisco dreaming of living over here, but Thailand - at least - was way ahead of the Philippines even then.

[aries27]

Mid-80s? hmm.. Doubt it..

[Ulysses G.]

When I read books about the "Hippy Trail" in the 70s they make it sound like there was already lots of action.

When would you say that tourism in Thailand really took off?

[aries27]

Is double posting allowed?

Anyway, in PH, we have a saying.. "It's weather-weather".. Like a wheel is round or like the weather, sometimes you get sun and sometimes, you get rain (as we don't have snow or sleet or whatever else here )

So that is life.. Decades ago it was Japan, now it's China and India and of course S. Korea. Who's next?

Centuries ago, America was not even born yet, there was Mesopotamia. Now, most Americans are not even aware of how old Iraq civilization is. Are there ancient structures there left that could have been damaged by the war?

Anyway, to Americans here..am not anti-US. I have 3 sibs over there and family have multiple visas, green card thing if they want to stay longer than ordinary vacation. But some of your foreign policies really SUCK.. sorry.. Counting foreign friends however, Americans are the "mostest"..

Have a great week...........

--------------

Reason for saying double posting: I wrote this post not knowing I had a reply to the previous one..

And what is "Hippy Trail"?

Edited September 7, 2008 by aries27

[aries27]

Hippy Trail is not even on google...

[Ulysses G.]

Try again. I got lots of hits.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hippie_trail

Hippie trail

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Jump to: navigation, search

The hippie trail is a term used to describe the journeys taken by hippies and others in the 1960s and 1970s from Europe, overland to and from eastern Asia. One of the key motivations was the desire to travel as cheaply as possible, mainly to extend the length of time away from home, and so journeys were carried out by thumbing (hitchhiking), or cheap, private buses that travelled the route. There were also trains which traveled part of the way, particularly across Eastern Europe, through Turkey (with a ferry connection across Lake Van) and to Tehran or east to Mashhad, Iran. From these cities public or private transportation could be obtained.

This talks about Thailand later in the article.

[aries27]

ahhhh, like backpacking?

[Bill97]

ahhhh, like backpacking?

oh that is funny considering today's "backpackers"

Edited September 7, 2008 by Bill97

[highonthai]

aries 27,

May I ask where you are from?

And what does this have to do with Chiang Mai?

Edited September 7, 2008 by highonthai

[KevinHunt]

Was just checking out the pictures on Time magazine site. Lots of people beating each other with sticks, blood on the streets. Definitely going to scale back visitors...

Look at the bright side. Visa's will be easier to get, prices should go down a bit with a more pronounced recession and a better exchange rate. The US$ is flirting with 35 baht now and might gain some more steam despite lots of BOT intervention.

You must be laughing all the way to the bank after the latest bloodshed!!  

34.460B to the $

A couple more dead and you may get your wish.

Edited October 7, 2008 by KevinHUNT

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

Was just checking out the pictures on Time magazine site. Lots of people beating each other with sticks, blood on the streets. Definitely going to scale back visitors...

Look at the bright side. Visa's will be easier to get, prices should go down a bit with a more pronounced recession and a better exchange rate. The US$ is flirting with 35 baht now and might gain some more steam despite lots of BOT intervention.

You must be laughing all the way to the bank after the latest bloodshed!!  

34.460B to the $

A couple more dead and you may get your wish.

nah I would never trade the Baht because the spread is too high and it's a dirty float(not free market) currency.

[harrry]

"The major contribution to the service balance surplus was tourism, which increased from 630,000 tourists in 1970 to 2.6 million in 1986"

http://www.country-data.com/cgi-bin/query/r-13747.html

But I still thought there were too many in the 70s.

[roamer]

Some places in CM must be doing ok, I tried to book a few rooms in the Top North Hotel for December as the kids like the pool,

no can do, "Sorry Sir, we no longer take bookings because the guests get angry if we ask them to leave !"

Mind you that was on Monday, after Tuesdays troubles and God knows what lies around the corner, they might be revising that policy !

One good thing about the economic crisis is that its dominating the news and keeping LOS off the front page but there will be a lot of people not booking holidays next summer when they don't know if they will still have a job and when their house prices are plummeting.

Edited October 8, 2008 by roamer

[KevinHunt]

Some places in CM must be doing ok, I tried to book a few rooms in the Top North Hotel for December as the kids like the pool,

no can do, "Sorry Sir, we no longer take bookings because the guests get angry if we ask them to leave !"

Mind you that was on Monday, after Tuesdays troubles and God knows what lies around the corner, they might be revising that policy !

One good thing about the economic crisis is that its dominating the news and keeping LOS off the front page but there will be a lot of people not booking holidays next summer when they don't know if they will still have a job and when their house prices are plummeting.

It sounds like a strange policy - not taking bookings? Is it because they're incompetent or fully booked?

Le Meridien in Night Bazaar looks like they've given up on opening for now. The last date was "bookings being taken from 1st Oct" but still no signs of life. When it finally opens it would be about 1000 more rooms in the Night Bazaar area ,if you include Shangri La, since last year. A good reason for not using 'Hotel Occupancy Rate' as a guide to how busy the city is. If hotels/guesthouses keep opening up but numbers of visitors stay the same the occupancy rates will fall nonetheless.

Last year was the first for about 4 years without any factor to disrupt tourism - prior to that we had SARS , Tsunamis, Military coups etc. so it's more like business as usual - but probably a bit more severe.