Chiang Mai Tourism Hit Hard

[Ulysses G.]

The last coup was in September 2006 and then last year the world economy started to slide and then most of the tourists left in February instead of the usual time in April because of Internet warnings about the "Smoky Season" (which pretty much didn't happen). Didn't the PAD pull something?

I didn't think that last year was uneventful.

Edited October 9, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[KevinHunt]

Was just checking out the pictures on Time magazine site. Lots of people beating each other with sticks, blood on the streets. Definitely going to scale back visitors...

Look at the bright side. Visa's will be easier to get, prices should go down a bit with a more pronounced recession and a better exchange rate. The US$ is flirting with 35 baht now and might gain some more steam despite lots of BOT intervention.

You must be laughing all the way to the bank after the latest bloodshed!!  

34.460B to the $

A couple more dead and you may get your wish.

nah I would never trade the Baht because the spread is too high and it's a dirty float (not free market) currency.

As the resident financial / philosophical expert can you explain this to those of us with a lower intellect.....

The baht today is 34.535 to the dollar and yet nobody was killed and as far as I can see not even an amputation or dismemberment!

What's going on?

I thought that a death on the streets of Bangkok was worth at least one baht to the dollar and now I see it rising irrespective!!

Is the 'one death per baht to the dollar'  theory out of the window?

Is the 'more dead the merrier' theory still valid?  

These are crazy times for sure. I'm not even certain if any more deaths is a good thing or not.

I know your target of 35 baht to the dollar is looking good but how many more deaths will it take?

A Wild, uneducated (sorry) guess but 2 or maybe 3?

4 tops, surely.

BTW - the "dirty float" thing. Is that some kind of pun relating to bodies in the river? Financial Speak maybe?

Not too clear on that one.

Enlighten us please.

Edited October 9, 2008 by KevinHUNT

[gk10002000]

I know several who have canceled their trips here.

Was just checking out the pictures on Time magazine site. Lots of people beating each other with sticks, blood on the streets. Definitely going to scale back visitors...

Look at the bright side. Visa's will be easier to get, prices should go down a bit with a more pronounced recession and a better exchange rate. The US$ is flirting with 35 baht now and might gain some more steam despite lots of BOT intervention.

My experience here has allways been that if business is bad, prices will go up...'I do not have so many guests so I have had to increase price'...'my house has been empty one year so I have increased rent 25%'.

The Thai logic seems "we would rather go bust than cut costs"!

Just my experience.

Iain

Well stated. I have seen that also. I also remember the hotel groups in another city (pattaya) saying last year they wanted to raise hotel prices to attract a better brand of tourists. Well, one can interpret that in many ways, but the bottom line is if prices don't come down a bit, people will be less and less inclined to travel. I am single and don't have any particular bills or money drains. A vacation just means I save a bit less for retirment so I am still inclined to take about 60 days off shortly. I am tired. But your average working person with a family and a house mortgage is financially stressed right now.

[Ulysses G.]

Some places in CM must be doing ok, I tried to book a few rooms in the Top North Hotel for December as the kids like the pool,

no can do, "Sorry Sir, we no longer take bookings because the guests get angry if we ask them to leave !"

This does not seem to be correct.

I just went the Top North Hotel to book a room for November and had no problem at all. They seemed quite perplexed when I told them that it says that they don't take reservations on the Internet and they showed me a book full of reservations for the next few months to prove that they do.

By the way, there are PLENTY of rooms available for the next few months - including the Songkran Holidays - and they have a swimming pool.

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

As the resident financial / philosophical expert can you explain this to those of us with a lower intellect.....

The baht today is 34.535 to the dollar and yet nobody was killed and as far as I can see not even an amputation or dismemberment!

What's going on?

I thought that a death on the streets of Bangkok was worth at least one baht to the dollar and now I see it rising irrespective!!

Is the 'one death per baht to the dollar'  theory out of the window?

Is the 'more dead the merrier' theory still valid?  

These are crazy times for sure. I'm not even certain if any more deaths is a good thing or not.

I know your target of 35 baht to the dollar is looking good but how many more deaths will it take?

A Wild, uneducated (sorry) guess but 2 or maybe 3?

4 tops, surely.

BTW - the "dirty float" thing. Is that some kind of pun relating to bodies in the river? Financial Speak maybe?

Not too clear on that one.

Enlighten us please.

I am a casual observer of the Thai Baht(THB). There are two classic ways an export economy weakens its currency to encourage exports. One is Managed Float and the other is Floating Peg. China for example is more Floating Peg which is to say the govt ultimately sets the variable rate.

Managed float regime in the current international financial environment in which exchange rates fluctuate from day to day, but central banks attempt to influence their countries' exchange rates by buying and selling currencies. It is also known as a "dirty float".

Thailand is an economy where ~60% of GDP is exports and ~10-15% is tourism. It's clearly in the govt's interest to manage and subsidize the weakness of the currency to encourage foreign demand.

As a casual Thailand observer each time CNN and BBC show pictures of a military coup or unrest in Thailand then it will tend to scare investors, corporations and hedge funds and generally decrease risk exposure to the market. Basically bad public relations.

The contradiction here is that the Thai govt wants a weak and stable currency to encourage exports and bi directional money flows but at the same time the free market will tend to seek value and avoid risk. Since the THB is managed float these forces will tend to be muted and or delayed if not mitigated thru central bank policy. Of course there are larger economic forces which may or may not override or totally obscure this market pressure. The point being in a vacuum political unrest or violence will tend to decrease investment confidence and thus demand and thus price in a freely traded market.

The contradiction of the THB being undervalued by Dirty Float against a increasingly bad PR story makes it a difficult currency to trade because fundamentals don't move the market as clearly.

In the past year the BOT might have been working harder to weaken the currency and now working less to weaken and possibly even be strengthening the THB for stable policy reasons. Perhaps someone who watches Thailand closely can weigh in.

I would stick to the USD, EUR, CHF, JPY and GBP. Exponentially more liquid markets and responsive and brokers give a much tighter spread(commission) to trade them.

Hope that helps.

Edited October 10, 2008 by CobraSnakeNecktie

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

addendum to last post. Export percentage of GDP in Thailand is 25%. I might have been thinking of 60% which is industrial production.

2007 est exports 150 billion USD

2007 est GDP 627 billion USD

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand

[highonthai]

10 buses just passed my place all at once full of Thai or Chinese don't know.

So at least the Night Safari is dong ok...

[ThaiPauly]

10 buses just passed my place all at once full of Thai or Chinese don't know.

So at least the Night Safari is dong ok...

I doubt that.

They owe local businesses over 1m Baht in unpaid bills for animal feed

The last time I went there they could not even fill a tram for the safari adventure.

The big white elephants at the entrance are there for a reason

[Priceless]

addendum to last post. Export percentage of GDP in Thailand is 25%. I might have been thinking of 60% which is industrial production.

2007 est exports 150 billion USD

2007 est GDP 627 billion USD

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand

I think you were right the first time around. According to the CIA World Factbook the Thai GDP in 2007, at official exchange rate, was $245.7 billion and exports were $151.1 billion. This makes exports account for 61% of GDP.

Actually Wikipedia says almost the same thing in the first paragraph of the text portion: "The economy of Thailand is an emerging economy which is heavily export-dependent, with exports accounting for more than two thirds of GDP." The much higher figure for GDP that you quoted in your second post was at PPP (Purchasing Power Parity). Since exports are always given at oofficial exchange rates, they must be compared to GDP using the same rate of exchange.

Very easy to become confused by these things

/ Priceless

[KevinHunt]

I am a casual observer of the Thai Baht(THB). There are two classic ways an export economy weakens its currency to encourage exports. One is Managed Float and the other is Floating Peg. China for example is more Floating Peg which is to say the govt ultimately sets the variable rate.

Managed float regime in the current international financial environment in which exchange rates fluctuate from day to day, but central banks attempt to influence their countries' exchange rates by buying and selling currencies. It is also known as a "dirty float".

Thailand is an economy where ~60% of GDP is exports and ~10-15% is tourism. It's clearly in the govt's interest to manage and subsidize the weakness of the currency to encourage foreign demand.

As a casual Thailand observer each time CNN and BBC show pictures of a military coup or unrest in Thailand then it will tend to scare investors, corporations and hedge funds and generally decrease risk exposure to the market. Basically bad public relations.

The contradiction here is that the Thai govt wants a weak and stable currency to encourage exports and bi directional money flows but at the same time the free market will tend to seek value and avoid risk. Since the THB is managed float these forces will tend to be muted and or delayed if not mitigated thru central bank policy. Of course there are larger economic forces which may or may not override or totally obscure this market pressure. The point being in a vacuum political unrest or violence will tend to decrease investment confidence and thus demand and thus price in a freely traded market.

The contradiction of the THB being undervalued by Dirty Float against a increasingly bad PR story makes it a difficult currency to trade because fundamentals don't move the market as clearly.

In the past year the BOT might have been working harder to weaken the currency and now working less to weaken and possibly even be strengthening the THB for stable policy reasons. Perhaps someone who watches Thailand closely can weigh in.

I would stick to the USD, EUR, CHF, JPY and GBP. Exponentially more liquid markets and responsive and brokers give a much tighter spread(commission) to trade them.

Hope that helps.

I'm sorry to say it doesn't.

You started this off with a couple of lines about the troubles in Bangkok

"There's blood on the streets. Definitely going to scale back visitors...

Look at the bright side. Visa's will be easier to get, prices should go down a bit with a more pronounced recession and a better exchange rate. The US$ is flirting with 35 baht now and might gain some more steam despite lots of BOT intervention."

   This implied that somehow the exchange rate was linked to death and so the more dead the better for those holding dollars. 'This may explain America's penchant for war' - I thought.

    A poor soul get's killed in Bangkok so by you saying that we should 'Look on the bright side ... The US$ is flirting with 35 baht' you gave me the impression that this exchange rate business was simple. It turns out to be more complicated than that (managed floats , floating pegs?) and way beyond my comprehension. 

"Exponentially more liquid markets and responsive and brokers give a much tighter spread(commission) to trade them."

   Trying to uderstand that would be mind-boggling to most people. I just checked mine - it's boggled alright.

   Thanks for perservering with me. Lots of folk read this so you may have enlightened others, anyway.

   So, I'm going to go back to worrying about whether Lampard and Gerrard can play together for England and leave the big issues to the intellectuals.

    I'm also going back to thinking that death on the streets of Bangkok, or any other city for that matter, isn't a good thing.

    Ignorance is bliss, and all that.

Edited October 11, 2008 by KevinHUNT

[john b good]

Some places in CM must be doing ok, I tried to book a few rooms in the Top North Hotel for December as the kids like the pool,

no can do, "Sorry Sir, we no longer take bookings because the guests get angry if we ask them to leave !"

Mind you that was on Monday, after Tuesdays troubles and God knows what lies around the corner, they might be revising that policy !

One good thing about the economic crisis is that its dominating the news and keeping LOS off the front page but there will be a lot of people not booking holidays next summer when they don't know if they will still have a job and when their house prices are plummeting.

It sounds like a strange policy - not taking bookings? Is it because they're incompetent or fully booked?

Le Meridien in Night Bazaar looks like they've given up on opening for now. The last date was "bookings being taken from 1st Oct" but still no signs of life. When it finally opens it would be about 1000 more rooms in the Night Bazaar area ,if you include Shangri La, since last year. A good reason for not using 'Hotel Occupancy Rate' as a guide to how busy the city is. If hotels/guesthouses keep opening up but numbers of visitors stay the same the occupancy rates will fall nonetheless.

Last year was the first for about 4 years without any factor to disrupt tourism - prior to that we had SARS , Tsunamis, Military coups etc. so it's more like business as usual - but probably a bit more severe. 

Originally it was gonna open in October 2006. What a joke

[john b good]

aries 27,

May I ask where you are from?

And what does this have to do with Chiang Mai?

Exactly, a very good question

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

I am a casual observer of the Thai Baht(THB). There are two classic ways an export economy weakens its currency to encourage exports. One is Managed Float and the other is Floating Peg. China for example is more Floating Peg which is to say the govt ultimately sets the variable rate.

Managed float regime in the current international financial environment in which exchange rates fluctuate from day to day, but central banks attempt to influence their countries' exchange rates by buying and selling currencies. It is also known as a "dirty float".

Thailand is an economy where ~60% of GDP is exports and ~10-15% is tourism. It's clearly in the govt's interest to manage and subsidize the weakness of the currency to encourage foreign demand.

As a casual Thailand observer each time CNN and BBC show pictures of a military coup or unrest in Thailand then it will tend to scare investors, corporations and hedge funds and generally decrease risk exposure to the market. Basically bad public relations.

The contradiction here is that the Thai govt wants a weak and stable currency to encourage exports and bi directional money flows but at the same time the free market will tend to seek value and avoid risk. Since the THB is managed float these forces will tend to be muted and or delayed if not mitigated thru central bank policy. Of course there are larger economic forces which may or may not override or totally obscure this market pressure. The point being in a vacuum political unrest or violence will tend to decrease investment confidence and thus demand and thus price in a freely traded market.

The contradiction of the THB being undervalued by Dirty Float against a increasingly bad PR story makes it a difficult currency to trade because fundamentals don't move the market as clearly.

In the past year the BOT might have been working harder to weaken the currency and now working less to weaken and possibly even be strengthening the THB for stable policy reasons. Perhaps someone who watches Thailand closely can weigh in.

I would stick to the USD, EUR, CHF, JPY and GBP. Exponentially more liquid markets and responsive and brokers give a much tighter spread(commission) to trade them.

Hope that helps.

I'm sorry to say it doesn't.

You started this off with a couple of lines about the troubles in Bangkok

"There's blood on the streets. Definitely going to scale back visitors...

Look at the bright side. Visa's will be easier to get, prices should go down a bit with a more pronounced recession and a better exchange rate. The US$ is flirting with 35 baht now and might gain some more steam despite lots of BOT intervention."

   This implied that somehow the exchange rate was linked to death and so the more dead the better for those holding dollars. 'This may explain America's penchant for war' - I thought.

    A poor soul get's killed in Bangkok so by you saying that we should 'Look on the bright side ... The US$ is flirting with 35 baht' you gave me the impression that this exchange rate business was simple. It turns out to be more complicated than that (managed floats , floating pegs?) and way beyond my comprehension. 

"Exponentially more liquid markets and responsive and brokers give a much tighter spread(commission) to trade them."

   Trying to uderstand that would be mind-boggling to most people. I just checked mine - it's boggled alright.

   Thanks for perservering with me. Lots of folk read this so you may have enlightened others, anyway.

   So, I'm going to go back to worrying about whether Lampard and Gerrard can play together for England and leave the big issues to the intellectuals.

    I'm also going back to thinking that death on the streets of Bangkok, or any other city for that matter, isn't a good thing.

    Ignorance is bliss, and all that.

Will first off good and bad is a perception. One person will have one perspective and everyone else could have a varying different perception based on where they are sitting. I hope this is not the first time you are hearing this. Other people have opinions that might be different from yours because they have different interests. Some people might try to view information from varying perspectives. When viewing something from more than one persons view then it's hard to label something just good or bad. You know like when someone has a accident and then years later they say it changed their life and they would not trade that for the world. Sometimes religious people have something "bad" happen to them and they philosophize that "God" or Buddha or whoever has a plan for them and they are not going to drown themselves in depression. Later they view the event as being good. Surely you have heard of such people?

It's hard for me to label what is happening in Bangkok as singularly bad because they are sorting out how the country goes forward. Plenty of people died when the USA was created and shaped over the years but in a lot of ways it helped them along. You have heard of the saying "if you want to make an omelet then you have to break some eggs". the violence is bad for people who got physically hurt but down the road this could be very GOOD for the country to form a Democracy.

back to currency.

it's an influence to the currency. Influence!!!. It's an influence that could cause the currency to weaken if the BOT allows it. If your not able to research and learn trading or investing then don't do it.. Nobody will ever promise you success without some hard work and smarts. The most important part of currency trading is to position yourself at a place where you are unlikely to lose money. Don't worry about making money. Just try to preserve capital. Currently with the world economic news and Thai govt unrest its very unlikely that the THB will be allowed to strengthen and more likely to weaken but hard to predict because its NOT freely traded. There is plenty on the internet if your inclined to educate yourself. You will need to rise up to the challenge and if you expect it to come down to your level then likely to lose your nest egg. The markets aren't in the least bit concerned with your subjective personal morality.

Edited October 11, 2008 by CobraSnakeNecktie

[Priceless]

I am a casual observer of the Thai Baht(THB). There are two classic ways an export economy weakens its currency to encourage exports. One is Managed Float and the other is Floating Peg. China for example is more Floating Peg which is to say the govt ultimately sets the variable rate.

Managed float regime in the current international financial environment in which exchange rates fluctuate from day to day, but central banks attempt to influence their countries' exchange rates by buying and selling currencies. It is also known as a "dirty float".

Thailand is an economy where ~60% of GDP is exports and ~10-15% is tourism. It's clearly in the govt's interest to manage and subsidize the weakness of the currency to encourage foreign demand.

As a casual Thailand observer each time CNN and BBC show pictures of a military coup or unrest in Thailand then it will tend to scare investors, corporations and hedge funds and generally decrease risk exposure to the market. Basically bad public relations.

The contradiction here is that the Thai govt wants a weak and stable currency to encourage exports and bi directional money flows but at the same time the free market will tend to seek value and avoid risk. Since the THB is managed float these forces will tend to be muted and or delayed if not mitigated thru central bank policy. Of course there are larger economic forces which may or may not override or totally obscure this market pressure. The point being in a vacuum political unrest or violence will tend to decrease investment confidence and thus demand and thus price in a freely traded market.

The contradiction of the THB being undervalued by Dirty Float against a increasingly bad PR story makes it a difficult currency to trade because fundamentals don't move the market as clearly.

In the past year the BOT might have been working harder to weaken the currency and now working less to weaken and possibly even be strengthening the THB for stable policy reasons. Perhaps someone who watches Thailand closely can weigh in.

I would stick to the USD, EUR, CHF, JPY and GBP. Exponentially more liquid markets and responsive and brokers give a much tighter spread(commission) to trade them.

Hope that helps.

I'm sorry to say it doesn't.

You started this off with a couple of lines about the troubles in Bangkok

"There's blood on the streets. Definitely going to scale back visitors...

Look at the bright side. Visa's will be easier to get, prices should go down a bit with a more pronounced recession and a better exchange rate. The US$ is flirting with 35 baht now and might gain some more steam despite lots of BOT intervention."

   This implied that somehow the exchange rate was linked to death and so the more dead the better for those holding dollars. 'This may explain America's penchant for war' - I thought.

    A poor soul get's killed in Bangkok so by you saying that we should 'Look on the bright side ... The US$ is flirting with 35 baht' you gave me the impression that this exchange rate business was simple. It turns out to be more complicated than that (managed floats , floating pegs?) and way beyond my comprehension. 

"Exponentially more liquid markets and responsive and brokers give a much tighter spread(commission) to trade them."

   Trying to uderstand that would be mind-boggling to most people. I just checked mine - it's boggled alright.

   Thanks for perservering with me. Lots of folk read this so you may have enlightened others, anyway.

   So, I'm going to go back to worrying about whether Lampard and Gerrard can play together for England and leave the big issues to the intellectuals.

    I'm also going back to thinking that death on the streets of Bangkok, or any other city for that matter, isn't a good thing.

    Ignorance is bliss, and all that.

Will first off good and bad is a perception. One person will have one perspective and everyone else could have a varying different perception based on where they are sitting. I hope this is not the first time you are hearing this. Other people have opinions that might be different from yours because they have different interests. Some people might try to view information from varying perspectives. When viewing something from more than one persons view then it's hard to label something just good or bad. You know like when someone has a accident and then years later they say it changed their life and they would not trade that for the world. Sometimes religious people have something "bad" happen to them and they philosophize that "God" or Buddha or whoever has a plan for them and they are not going to drown themselves in depression. Later they view the event as being good. Surely you have heard of such people?

It's hard for me to label what is happening in Bangkok as singularly bad because they are sorting out how the country goes forward. Plenty of people died when the USA was created and shaped over the years but in a lot of ways it helped them along. You have heard of the saying "if you want to make an omelet then you have to break some eggs". the violence is bad for people who got physically hurt but down the road this could be very GOOD for the country to form a Democracy.

back to currency.

it's an influence to the currency. Influence!!!. It's an influence that could cause the currency to weaken if the BOT allows it. If your not able to research and learn trading or investing then don't do it.. Nobody will ever promise you success without some hard work and smarts. The most important part of currency trading is to position yourself at a place where you are unlikely to lose money. Don't worry about making money. Just try to preserve capital. Currently with the world economic news and Thai govt unrest its very unlikely that the THB will be allowed to strengthen and more likely to weaken but hard to predict because its NOT freely traded. There is plenty on the internet if your inclined to educate yourself. You will need to rise up to the challenge and if you expect it to come down to your level then likely to lose your nest egg. The markets aren't in the least bit concerned with your subjective personal morality.

I know I'm a bit dense, but could somebody please explain to me what this has to do with the title/subject of this thread

/ Priceless

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

I am a casual observer of the Thai Baht(THB). There are two classic ways an export economy weakens its currency to encourage exports. One is Managed Float and the other is Floating Peg. China for example is more Floating Peg which is to say the govt ultimately sets the variable rate.

Managed float regime in the current international financial environment in which exchange rates fluctuate from day to day, but central banks attempt to influence their countries' exchange rates by buying and selling currencies. It is also known as a "dirty float".

Thailand is an economy where ~60% of GDP is exports and ~10-15% is tourism. It's clearly in the govt's interest to manage and subsidize the weakness of the currency to encourage foreign demand.

As a casual Thailand observer each time CNN and BBC show pictures of a military coup or unrest in Thailand then it will tend to scare investors, corporations and hedge funds and generally decrease risk exposure to the market. Basically bad public relations.

The contradiction here is that the Thai govt wants a weak and stable currency to encourage exports and bi directional money flows but at the same time the free market will tend to seek value and avoid risk. Since the THB is managed float these forces will tend to be muted and or delayed if not mitigated thru central bank policy. Of course there are larger economic forces which may or may not override or totally obscure this market pressure. The point being in a vacuum political unrest or violence will tend to decrease investment confidence and thus demand and thus price in a freely traded market.

The contradiction of the THB being undervalued by Dirty Float against a increasingly bad PR story makes it a difficult currency to trade because fundamentals don't move the market as clearly.

In the past year the BOT might have been working harder to weaken the currency and now working less to weaken and possibly even be strengthening the THB for stable policy reasons. Perhaps someone who watches Thailand closely can weigh in.

I would stick to the USD, EUR, CHF, JPY and GBP. Exponentially more liquid markets and responsive and brokers give a much tighter spread(commission) to trade them.

Hope that helps.

I'm sorry to say it doesn't.

You started this off with a couple of lines about the troubles in Bangkok

"There's blood on the streets. Definitely going to scale back visitors...

Look at the bright side. Visa's will be easier to get, prices should go down a bit with a more pronounced recession and a better exchange rate. The US$ is flirting with 35 baht now and might gain some more steam despite lots of BOT intervention."

   This implied that somehow the exchange rate was linked to death and so the more dead the better for those holding dollars. 'This may explain America's penchant for war' - I thought.

    A poor soul get's killed in Bangkok so by you saying that we should 'Look on the bright side ... The US$ is flirting with 35 baht' you gave me the impression that this exchange rate business was simple. It turns out to be more complicated than that (managed floats , floating pegs?) and way beyond my comprehension. 

"Exponentially more liquid markets and responsive and brokers give a much tighter spread(commission) to trade them."

   Trying to uderstand that would be mind-boggling to most people. I just checked mine - it's boggled alright.

   Thanks for perservering with me. Lots of folk read this so you may have enlightened others, anyway.

   So, I'm going to go back to worrying about whether Lampard and Gerrard can play together for England and leave the big issues to the intellectuals.

    I'm also going back to thinking that death on the streets of Bangkok, or any other city for that matter, isn't a good thing.

    Ignorance is bliss, and all that.

Will first off good and bad is a perception. One person will have one perspective and everyone else could have a varying different perception based on where they are sitting. I hope this is not the first time you are hearing this. Other people have opinions that might be different from yours because they have different interests. Some people might try to view information from varying perspectives. When viewing something from more than one persons view then it's hard to label something just good or bad. You know like when someone has a accident and then years later they say it changed their life and they would not trade that for the world. Sometimes religious people have something "bad" happen to them and they philosophize that "God" or Buddha or whoever has a plan for them and they are not going to drown themselves in depression. Later they view the event as being good. Surely you have heard of such people?

It's hard for me to label what is happening in Bangkok as singularly bad because they are sorting out how the country goes forward. Plenty of people died when the USA was created and shaped over the years but in a lot of ways it helped them along. You have heard of the saying "if you want to make an omelet then you have to break some eggs". the violence is bad for people who got physically hurt but down the road this could be very GOOD for the country to form a Democracy.

back to currency.

it's an influence to the currency. Influence!!!. It's an influence that could cause the currency to weaken if the BOT allows it. If your not able to research and learn trading or investing then don't do it.. Nobody will ever promise you success without some hard work and smarts. The most important part of currency trading is to position yourself at a place where you are unlikely to lose money. Don't worry about making money. Just try to preserve capital. Currently with the world economic news and Thai govt unrest its very unlikely that the THB will be allowed to strengthen and more likely to weaken but hard to predict because its NOT freely traded. There is plenty on the internet if your inclined to educate yourself. You will need to rise up to the challenge and if you expect it to come down to your level then likely to lose your nest egg. The markets aren't in the least bit concerned with your subjective personal morality.

I know I'm a bit dense, but could somebody please explain to me what this has to do with the title/subject of this thread

/ Priceless

okay not a lot. I was responding to somebody else. I was trying to explain the relationship of a weakening THB currency to GDP prosperity and tourism in relation to the govt crisis but I agree time to move on.

moderators feel free to liposuction this thread

[mcgriffith]

Naw, liposuction is not only invasive...new research from Swedish scientists show that fat cells grow back!

In any event, who knows what will happen with CM tourism.

IMHO, although the domestic political situation, the overbuilding, etc. cannot but have an effect on tourism- the reality is that what is happening globally in the financial markets right now will certainly overshadow anything here in terms of policy and planning to promote tourism in CM.

We're pis_in' in the wind right now.....things are not looking so good, anywhere.

[whatsoever]

I know several who have canceled their trips here.

Was just checking out the pictures on Time magazine site. Lots of people beating each other with sticks, blood on the streets. Definitely going to scale back visitors...

Look at the bright side. Visa's will be easier to get, prices should go down a bit with a more pronounced recession and a better exchange rate. The US$ is flirting with 35 baht now and might gain some more steam despite lots of BOT intervention.

Sterling at 56 baht - Euro down! What makes you think that the $ rate has much influence considering that americans are a minority re. tourist numbers

Edited October 11, 2008 by whatsoever

[rishi]

Sorry, if I'm bursting anybody's bobble regarding Doomsday - sofar, this October has been the best in my four year existence as CM-business owner.

[Ulysses G.]

Sorry, if I'm bursting anybody's bobble regarding Doomsday - sofar, this October has been the best in my four year existence as CM-business owner.

What kind of business?

I have had more backpackers the last few days, but many seem the type to boost a lot more books than they buy.

[Mapguy]

Probably a soup kitchen!

[photojourn]

From what I've researched over the last week for a major tourism industry news site that emails weekly newsletters to the travel industry things are not looking good here in Thailand.

On top of that TATs governor believes the Oct 7 chaos in Bangkok will "not significantly affect tourism" in Thailand.

if anyone is interested in reading the full articles they are posted on my newsblog. The newest article is listed first.

If anyone has any good news I'd be happy to hear it. PM or email me.

Thailand tourism chief believes deadly clashes will not significantly affect tourism

Thailand tourism in crisis as protesters die in ‘bloody Bangkok’

[cmsally]

TAT are basically denying the obvious; maybe they are hoping denial will prevent any budget cuts for them.

If you talk to anyone directly involved in the tourism industry the outlook is indeed bleak. This also filters into many other businesses, so has a knock on effect. I think this year will be one of the shortest high seasons Chiang Mai has ever seen.

Next year is anyone's guess but the prognosis can't be good.

[Gonzo the Face]

Someone asked me earlier today, what I thought would happen for the busy season this year.

My answer was that it would probably be about equal to a normal low season.....

Somewhat tongue in cheek. Maybe.....

Thinking about opening a suicide hot line business, I understand people would be dying to call

Cheer up guys, were only 2 years away from high season 2010

[Ulysses G.]

There are many businesses here that rely on high season to pay for the rest of the year.

[rishi]

Sorry, if I'm bursting anybody's bobble regarding Doomsday - sofar, this October has been the best in my four year existence as CM-business owner.

What kind of business?

I have had more backpackers the last few days, but many seem the type to boost a lot more books than they buy.

... so, you do have noticed the trend? - That's the first step towards survival ...

[rishi]

I have had more backpackers the last few days, but many seem the type to boost a lot more books than they buy.

... had to return to this thread after leaving it - but I do sense some sort of prejudgment of the kind that'll make you a potential non-survivor. Backpacker = shoplifter. How the heck do you know they were backpackers would be the first question - did they actually go into your tiny bookstores carrying backpacks while shoplifting?

[cmsally]

I disagree that there are more backpackers per se. You may see a bigger ratio if other groups of tourists have dropped but numbers of actual backpackers are normally higher this time of year.

Still a few French tour groups around, a friend of mine said Sukothai was full of them, but have to remember the large groups book well ahead so probably didn't want to cancel at a loss.

[Ulysses G.]

I have had more backpackers the last few days, but many seem the type to boost a lot more books than they buy.

... had to return to this thread after leaving it - but I do sense some sort of prejudgment of the kind that'll make you a potential non-survivor. Backpacker = shoplifter. How the heck do you know they were backpackers would be the first question - did they actually go into your tiny bookstores carrying backpacks while shoplifting?

Actually, yes they do carry their backpacks into the store which is how I know that they are backpackers and although many are fine people who do not steal, a large percentage will if it is not too difficult.

Many of the shoplifters hang out for long periods of time in areas where it is difficult for the cashier to keep an eye on them and they only look at the most expensive books. They will walk around the store picking out trendy books and then go to certain areas where they can not be seen directly without sending someone over to watch them, which, of course, is what I do.

Sorry, but where I come from, the "non-survivors" are the ones who can't read the signals and just let them steal at will.

By the way, my bookstores are actually pretty big for Thailand. The main one is the size of four shophouses which is pretty big for just about anywhere

Edited October 13, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[Ricardo]

If they didn't wear their backpacks, they would have to carry the stolen books in their hands, a bit of a giveaway really ! Carrying heavy books might well also be against Health & Safety regulations.

Perhaps they should have to deposit their backpacks, somewhere like Suvarnhabhumi, to allow the security-staff the opportunity to retrieve things, stolen or otherwise ? This could be done when they check-in for their onward journeys.

[Ulysses G.]

We ask them to take off their backpacks in the store, but most of them also have giant open cloth sacks hanging over their shoulders which they get upset about removing to the point where they will go to a less "fascistic" store and shop there.

You don't really want to be throwing too many potential customers out in the middle of a possible world wide depresion - no matter how tempting it may be!

Edited October 13, 2008 by Ulysses G.