Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

I don't trade Gold, I trade S&P 500 futures.

Ahoy there OT a bit and I don't trade anything but what do you think about that S&P value in the longer term?

I.e. the term all those pension funds and insurance companies are depending on (along with their mortgage backed securities, sovereign bonds and other assets).

looking forward for LRB's answer but expecting a disappointing one.

something like "i am a trader. i trade S&P futures. that does not mean that i consider "future" any time beyond the market's or Globex closing time of any business day."

[churchill]

addressing LRB

Reporting facts of increasing demand is not trying to talk it up - You are very welcome to post reasons why the price is about to drop ... we all want to sell near the top and before the peak ..

I am surprised that you being a chartist and a trader that wants to make money ? have not spotted the trend and made packets on this trade ... check the 144 day ma

Don't they say emotions and trades don't mix ?

you are not reporting facts Churchill. you are reporting hearsay. and nearly all contents of your reporting is from parties which have vested interests.

if only a fraction of these "facts" were true the price of gold would be already skyhigh today. i have not counted the number of your "increasing demand" postings during the last six but i'm sure they exceed two dozen (perhaps more). in this period gold appreciated (denominated in US-Dollars) approximately 7%, whereas USD lost between 2 and 6% vs. some major currencies.

in my [not so] humble opinion the net price increase proves my theory that the "increasing demand" opinions are not facts but merely farts.

'you are not reporting facts Churchill. you are reporting hearsay. and nearly all contents of your reporting is from parties which have vested interests.'

Quite correct - Anything that is reported can and should be taken with a pinch of salt / all our politicians have their way of slanting their views - The BBC and CNN & all have their own way of reporting news as have other news sources but when one sees continuing and new reports of increased demand and central bank buying there must be some truth in it-

Gold would not be sitting at $1500 unless there had been increased demand over the last few years

and I look forward to Paulo1 's thread next week regarding currency / gold/silver trades ...

'27th June 2011 I will began post free signals based on the Daily and 4hr Charts for FX, Gold and Silver. Trades will have entry, stop, and targets.

There is a big shift happening in the markets at present. '

Edited June 25, 2011 by churchill

[churchill]

Precious Metals Wars - Attack of the Trading Bots - Again

http://seekingalpha.com/article/276574-precious-metals-wars-attack-of-the-trading-bots-again

[Naam]

Precious Metals Wars - Attack of the Trading Bots - Again

facts:

-if physical gold possessed only some of the attributes the aficionados claim it has than any paper trading would not affect the price at all.

-if gold possessed intrinsic value its price would not have been stagnant over a period of more than two decades with an average accumulated inflation exceeding by far 100%.

yeah... yeah... everything is different now

[midas]

Given the instability and uncertainty around the world, do you not see a possibility that under some circumstances food and water could be considerably more attractive than gold?

And under almost every circumstance there will be some spiv ready to supply food, water, cigs, alcohol and weapons for gold.

well maybe you think that way now but but there is no guarantee on that in the future ?

"When money is made useless and I have food and water while you have gold, come to me then and offer your gold in exchange. Unless I am feeling exceedingly benevolent, you will go your way hungry and thirsty."

Richard William Posner, May, 2011

http://themonkeeswrench.blogspot.com/2011/05/gold-myth-aside-from-god-longest.html

Edited June 25, 2011 by midas

[churchill]

I don't trade Gold, I trade S&P 500 futures.

Ahoy there OT a bit and I don't trade anything but what do you think about that S&P value in the longer term?

I.e. the term all those pension funds and insurance companies are depending on (along with their mortgage backed securities, sovereign bonds and other assets).

looking forward for LRB's answer but expecting a disappointing one.

something like "i am a trader. i trade S&P futures. that does not mean that i consider "future" any time beyond the market's or Globex closing time of any business day."

The limitations of technical analysis

http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/the-limitations-of-technical-analysis.html

[Naam]

quoting other people's thoughts has become rampant in this and the "crisis" thread. if used too often it only proves that participants are not willing to use their brain cells to form own opinions

[churchill]

Given the instability and uncertainty around the world, do you not see a possibility that under some circumstances food and water could be considerably more attractive than gold?

And under almost every circumstance there will be some spiv ready to supply food, water, cigs, alcohol and weapons for gold.

well maybe you think that way now but but there is no guarantee on that in the future ?

"When money is made useless and I have food and water while you have gold, come to me then and offer your gold in exchange. Unless I am feeling exceedingly benevolent, you will go your way hungry and thirsty."

Richard William Posner, May, 2011

http://themonkeeswrench.blogspot.com/2011/05/gold-myth-aside-from-god-longest.html

Interesting site ...

[Naam]

The limitations of technical analysis

...you cannot ignore the recorded demand for gold and silver from China and India – the two most populous nations on earth – the announcement that the Mexican central bank has bought 100 tonnes this year, and that the Russians continue to accumulate gold...

conclusions:

-Chinese, Indians, Mexicans and Russians are clever, those who sold their gold to them are idiots.

-the owners of goldshops are idiots because they sell precious gold to clever investors.

-anybody who accepts fiat money instead of gold for goods or services rendered is an idiot.

-the shareholders of gold mines are idiots because they allow the mines to sell the mined gold instead of stashing it secured deep down in the mines.

and last not least

-i am an idiot because i generate and provide the fiat money that my clever wife (who buys but never sells gold) uses to pay for whatever expenses we incur.

:jap:

[Naam]

"When money is made useless and I have food and water while you have gold, come to me then and offer your gold in exchange. Unless I am feeling exceedingly benevolent, you will go your way hungry and thirsty."

Richard William Posner, May, 2011

Honourable Mr. R.W. Posner, Esq.;

alternatively the hungry and thirsty one might leave less hungry and less thirsty and you will stay put with a bashed-in skull or a couple of bullets in your belly.

[churchill]

quoting other people's thoughts has become rampant in this and the "crisis" thread. if used too often it only proves that participants are not willing to use their brain cells to form own opinions

I agree - And perhaps we need a few more participants . ? RedFxTrade was a good recent contributor with a lot of thoughts and long posts - but seemed boring to some ?!

Some like to post negative comments to anything - like a game , just to have an opposing view -- fine but for debate to happen we need to encourage those that have views - not everything is black and white but I am sure we all would come to the same conclusions .. in time .. :jap:

Edited June 25, 2011 by churchill

[12DrinkMore]

Given the instability and uncertainty around the world, do you not see a possibility that under some circumstances food and water could be considerably more attractive than gold?

And under almost every circumstance there will be some spiv ready to supply food, water, cigs, alcohol and weapons for gold.

well maybe you think that way now but but there is no guarantee on that in the future ?

"When money is made useless and I have food and water while you have gold, come to me then and offer your gold in exchange. Unless I am feeling exceedingly benevolent, you will go your way hungry and thirsty."

Richard William Posner, May, 2011

http://themonkeeswre...od-longest.html

This all heads back to the start of the development of currencies.

In the case where money is made useless, there will still be people with more food and water than they need, and others with different resources that they want to barter for food and water. There will be a need for a store of wealth and a means to easily buy and sell stuff without having to cart lumps of pork belly and sacks of rice looking for a combination of things to purchase a tree from the tree owner, who already has 3,000 tons of rice. As it has always done, gold would step into this role very nicely.

I can exchange gold for local currency anywhere in the world, even in the most remote village in Outer Isaan, but I wouldn't get anywhere near as far with a bunch of crispy USD's. It has been part of the international psyche of the world's population that gold has a value and therefore this value will never evaporate to nothing.

The value of gold will go up and down, or maybe down and up, depending on the currency it is measured against; and even, I suppose, its location. An ounce of gold in the Isaan village today would buy me three or four buffaloes, doubt if I could get the same number in the US for that same ounce of gold.

Only in the extreme case where nobody had any surplus and all were desperate would gold have no value, except maybe to attach a big lump on the end of a stick, whack the others gits on the head and steal their food .

Thus proving that gold would still have a value. QED.

Edited June 25, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[cloudhopper]

quoting other people's thoughts has become rampant in this and the "crisis" thread. if used too often it only proves that participants are not willing to use their brain cells to form own opinions

I agree - And perhaps we need a few more participants . ? RedFxTrade was a good recent contributor with a lot of thoughts and long posts - but seemed boring to some ?!

Some like to post negative comments to anything - like a game , just to have an opposing view -- fine but for debate to happen we need to encourage those that have views - not everything is black and white but I am sure we all would come to the same conclusions .. in time .. :jap:

It's all good, don't look back.

Dr. Hopper prescribes 10 minutes and 34 seconds of Stratocaster therapy for all

[12DrinkMore]

I am sure we all would come to the same conclusions .. in time .. :jap:

Now that is an interesting concept. I'll have to bandy it around in my brain for a while.

What, indeed, would life be like, if everybody thought the same? Probably there would be no humans left, as without a voice of doubt, if the collective thought came to believe that humans could fly then we would have jumped of a cliff together, utterly convinced that we'd survive.

There is surely a potential book and film in there somewhere?

I think, Churchill, that all we'd be able to agree on are the facts exhibited in the past and fleeting present. Why and how they were arrived at and where the road is heading will always be open to discussion...... Indeed maybe even the 'facts' are open for discussion

Edited June 25, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[12DrinkMore]

It's all good, don't look back.

Dr. Hopper prescribes 10 minutes and 34 seconds of Stratocaster therapy for all

Stuck in the 60's.

Wonder where Hendrix would have taken this in forty years?

Not that I am complainin' or criticisin'

Edited June 25, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[lannarebirth]

I don't trade Gold, I trade S&P 500 futures.

Ahoy there OT a bit and I don't trade anything but what do you think about that S&P value in the longer term?

I.e. the term all those pension funds and insurance companies are depending on (along with their mortgage backed securities, sovereign bonds and other assets).

I listen to a lot of stuff about valuations and I really try to take none of it on board. It doesn't help my trading. Compared to Income RE I've owned the S&P could be cut in half and seem to me to be wildly overvalued. Very few tax benefits accrue to stock holders.

Regarding the second part of your post, the indexes have that survivor bias going for them , so big plunges in indexes are at least a great trade and maybe a great investment. It depends a lot on your cost basis and I assume pension funds don't have the benefit of trying to time a market. No matter what the stock pimps say, timing matters.

Edited June 25, 2011 by lannarebirth

[lannarebirth]

I don't trade Gold, I trade S&P 500 futures.

Ahoy there OT a bit and I don't trade anything but what do you think about that S&P value in the longer term?

I.e. the term all those pension funds and insurance companies are depending on (along with their mortgage backed securities, sovereign bonds and other assets).

looking forward for LRB's answer but expecting a disappointing one.

something like "i am a trader. i trade S&P futures. that does not mean that i consider "future" any time beyond the market's or Globex closing time of any business day."

Something like that but not exactly. The fact is I HATE trading all this ephemeral crap. I'm just trying to keep from getting screwed out of what I worked so many years to create. Also I have a rather sick fixation with this stuff which I don't think is particularly healthy for me.

[Chinavet]

I started following this forum late 2008 after selling up in China and returning to Thailand with funds to invest. Thanks to the main contributors for your efforts, insights, opinions and informative links, but mostly for being entertaining.

I am certainly no financial guru, but macro economics interest me. I have lived the last 31 years in many international corporate positions and had successes and failures with my own businesses, but I'm a newbie investor with a bent for risk.

By late 2009 I had read enough to form an opinion and invested relatively heavily with a gold account at HSBC Hong Kong. My purchases were all under US$1000/oz and I was not confident. I was, and still am, way overweight gold, I have maintained this position.

Most of the factors that led me to buy still apply and have probably increased, but so has the price of gold. Collectively, those factors encourage me to believe there is still substantial potential in being long on gold and so far, I have held my nerve. I have no hard policy of being long or short, I just have to believe I can recognize a serious change of direction in the world economy that will cause the gold price to decline substantially, long term.

That's not easy in a world as financially volatile and fickle as we have today. So many things don't make sense or seem contradictory on a day to day basis. The world's financial community (including the writers/bloggers/columists/presenters) goes to work everyday to make something happen. The story of the day usually creates an over-reaction, often contrary to clear medium and long term trends. They scare old buggers like me sometimes.

The actual 'gold debate' I find is mostly fluff, from both extreme positions. I don't care if very knowledgeable people write volumes on... just a piece of metal/no interest....etc etc etc....gold will have value and a real place in the worldwide financial system long after we are gone. And good luck to the coins, food and gun hoarding crowd when armaggedon arrives. I find all that kind of discussion irrelevant and a distraction from the direction and possibilities of gold versus fiat currencies, in my lifetime (20+ years would be good). But I am confident the gold mining industry won't simply pack up and go away anytime soon, because the metal does not earn interest.

So, on that note, I would find much more value in this forum with less discussion on recent and old history and more on financial and political scenarios that can/will impact gold price in the coming years. Specifically, we have a 10 year chart and know the drivers. We can see events that caused price dips. But I for one would be very appreciative of credible scenarios that signal and end to the upward trend or create a dramatic real long term bust.

e.g. The countries that face possible default...which ones hold (substantial) gold? Is there a scenario for a massive selloff? How would that go down?

No relevant, but I grew up in a desert gold mining town. My father spent 37 years a few kilometers underground, digging the stuff up.

[12DrinkMore]

So, on that note, I would find much more value in this forum with less discussion on recent and old history and more on financial and political scenarios that can/will impact gold price in the coming years. Specifically, we have a 10 year chart and know the drivers. We can see events that caused price dips. But I for one would be very appreciative of credible scenarios that signal and end to the upward trend or create a dramatic real long term bust.

e.g. The countries that face possible default...which ones hold (substantial) gold? Is there a scenario for a massive selloff? How would that go down?

Well, come on then, put up a couple of ideas yourself to start the thing rolling.

No relevant, but I grew up in a desert gold mining town. My father spent 37 years a few kilometers underground, digging the stuff up.

Absolutely relevant.

Simply the fact that people have and are prepared to do that, to engage in wars, to destroy and rob and carry the stuff across oceans, for central banks to bury hundreds of tonnes of it in expensive and secure vaults, for Indians and Chinese to buy tonnes of it each year, wedding rings are made of it, gold is gold, and gold is the most evident, universal and accepted form of portable wealth storage around the globe. It has always purchased you something anywhere on the globe and will always do so.

The only discussion is, where lies its true value against what and when?

Maybe the answer to the question "if I offer you a pile of 50,000 USD notes or a kilo of gold, to be delivered in 10 years, which would you take?" might provide a clue?

Edited June 25, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[lannarebirth]

The fact is Sir Churchill, if every gram of Gold on the face of the Earth disappeared tomorrow it wouldn't make a dam_n bit of difference in the lives of almost everybody. Talk it up if you like but know it is good for practically nothing. That's why the price can double and treble and quadruple, it has no importance. Run up Rice similarly and see what happens.

Well I'd be pissed. I like my gold. I think it is and will continue to be a liquid and globally recognized store of wealth useful as a currency. That's why the price can double and treble and quadruple, or halve and quarter, it has no importance to me because it's rice purchasing power will always stay about the same.

I know that's the GB's argument, but it simply isn't true. In the past 3 years Gold has appreciated 50% in $USD terms while Rice has fallen almost 40% in $USD terms, The $USD itself is now m/l where it was 3 years ago. I don't mean to cast any aspersions on that noblest of all metals, but wouldn't you say that if your hypothesis is true, that either Gold is vastly overvalued or Rice is vastly undervalued?

[jombom]

So ---- so, has anybody worked a correct answer to the OP's question ??

After 180 odd pages, that's a reasonable question.

From memory, the question was '' where is gold going in this market ??''

[flying]

So ---- so, has anybody worked a correct answer to the OP's question ??

After 180 odd pages, that's a reasonable question.

From memory, the question was '' where is gold going in this market ??''

The first post in this thread is dated...2008-10-17

Is the answer not plain to see?

Where is it going has been shown clearly.

The reasons it went are all still intact so.....What do you think is the likely scenario from here forward?

Edited June 25, 2011 by flying

[cloudhopper]

I know that's the GB's argument, but it simply isn't true. In the past 3 years Gold has appreciated 50% in $USD terms while Rice has fallen almost 40% in $USD terms, The $USD itself is now m/l where it was 3 years ago. I don't mean to cast any aspersions on that noblest of all metals, but wouldn't you say that if your hypothesis is true, that either Gold is vastly overvalued or Rice is vastly undervalued?

Wow that certainly hasn't been the case for my local rice and gold prices in THB but the last 3 years have seen an unprecedented credit expansion along with deregulated speculative derivative trading in commodities and currencies but that departure from equilibrium will not be sustained.

It is unknowable how the collapse of the unsustainable will occur or how the post-collapse economy will function but of the various financial vehicles available to preserve capital gold may prove more useful than securities or contractual obligations of any type and that gives it value. But as I've said before if the collapse takes the form of a deflationary burst then physical cash will have the most value.

I never regretted the price I paid for the parachute I wore but never used when I flew upside down or the EPIRB I take when I sail beyond swimming distance from shore that I really hope to never use. Price is something out there for all to see but value will always remain contextual.

Here's a fascinating viewpoint that argues that the price of gold will go down while it's value will go up...

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/06/june-25-2011-future-of-physical-gold.html

[churchill]

Were you one of the lucky ones and fed with a Silver spoon ...

The Case For Silver Spoons,

http://www.survivalblog.com/2011/06/the_case_for_silver_spoons_by.html

[badge]

Just an interesting view regarding the worlds great producer of AU.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-27/why-china-s-heading-for-a-hard-landing-part-1-a-gary-shilling.html

[cloudhopper]

Good overview of gold

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/screaming-fundamentals-owning-gold-and-silver/59850

[ExpatJ]

I need some advice from the experts!

If you had 50,000 USD now would you invest it in gold? What about in K Banks K-Gold Fund?

[clinique]

I need some advice from the experts!

If you had 50,000 USD now would you invest it in gold? What about in K Banks K-Gold Fund?

a) Yes and no.

Buy physical gold, bars or bullion (not jewellery).

Why - with continued economic and financial conditions in Euro and US, concerns about China economy.

[ExpatJ]

I need some advice from the experts!

If you had 50,000 USD now would you invest it in gold? What about in K Banks K-Gold Fund?

a) Yes and no.

Buy physical gold, bars or bullion (not jewellery).

Why - with continued economic and financial conditions in Euro and US, concerns about China economy.

Thx- I wish there was a place to buy krugerands/maple leaf coins in thailand without a huge mark up...

[thailandcalling]

Very Interesting site worth checking out.

Were you one of the lucky ones and fed with a Silver spoon ...

The Case For Silver Spoons,

http://www.survivalb..._spoons_by.html