Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[flying]

Then you'll probably find this ZH extrapolation of the gold price to $1950 on the new and improved debt ceiling too cool!

http://www.zerohedge...1950-and-higher

Yes there is a certain comfort in having dove in back when the mess started really rolling in 07/08

But........

Since i started investing in gold i now find myself torn between wanting economic problems/crisis so that it pushes up gold prices but on the other hand not wanting economic problems/crisis so that my stocks keep rising.

Very conflicted emotionally , but i guess that's the sign of a balanced portfolio...

Does anyone else feel this way?

Yes I know how you feel & would be happy to sell it all if we saw some true change taking place.

But until the madness takes a turn for the better...Just be glad you had the foresight to see where the

paper currencies where going. Sadly it does not change the fact that it is all going to he11 in a hand basket.

[badge]

interesting graph:

Outstanding insight from Yoo...

One could select many markets, products, economic measures etc that correlate, in specific sample periods, to the price of Gold, or any other asset.

Yoo doesnt show the previous decade, where despite numerous raising of the Debt Ceiling Gold declined.

[SolarOhm]

In "THIS market" Gold is not going anywhere - it is staying flat on the ground or in the ground - while everything else burns and plummets to oblivion.

As the USD$ sinks in to the abyss Gold will be re-rated as a Triple AAA asset against holding US dollars. Of course if you think the USDollar is holding it's value then the price of gold priced in USDollars will continue to increase.

If however you hold a barrel of oil you will see it too increase in terms of dollar pricing. Same goes for almost all hard assets.

In terms of other vulnerable currencies they will have the same fate as the USD against the gold price.

After all the furore and financial debacle you will see that an OZ of gold will still be an ounce of gold

Thanks for posting, and thanks flying too.

i don't own paper gold, but WOULD like to know of SHORT term possible gains by selling/buying PHYSICAL.

i know that's not too hard to comprehend, even if its not 'usual' or whatever.

So now, 2 posters have identified a possibly weakening of the gold/usd price, SHORT TERM...

And most in here seem to agree on LONG TERM gains ...

Any more...?

Naam - who's 'an complete ignorant'? me for asking questions?

Or you for being a boring troll?

don't bother answering, it's a RHETORICAL question.

Edgar the Friendly

You can not make money trading Physical Gold short-term!

i) The buy/sell spread is ridiculous and will eat your profits.

ii) I don't know of a way to leverage your capital on the physical - so unless you have large amounts of money, an armoured car, a large vault, and pay for insurance, delivery and storage the small short-term gains are unlikely to yield much at all.

If you want to make money trading gold short-term then you will have to trade futures - derivatives, options, indexes or gold stocks.

It is far easier to trade gold contracts over the internet than to get into physical gold. Same goes for Oi - would you like to take delivery of the physical??

[churchill]

Fire the President .. Buy Gold

Marc Faber ..

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000036500

[churchill]

Gold buyers here gold buyers there ..... I'm dreaming ...

Bank of Korea buys gold, first time since '97-'98 crisis

http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL3E7J12SC20110801?sp=true

and Thailand .... :whistling:

Thailand’s gold reserves rose to about 4.07 million ounces in June, from about 3.523 million ounces in May, according to figures on the Bank of Thailand’s website.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-02/gold-may-advance-to-near-record-as-slower-factory-growth-increases-demand.html

[flying]

Yoo doesnt show the previous decade, where despite numerous raising of the Debt Ceiling Gold declined.

What was the Unemployment like in that decade? 25 million like now?

What was the foreclosures like in that decade? Approaching a million like 2011?

How many Americans were on Food Assistance? 45 million like now?

How many Bankruptcies in that decade? More than 1.5 million like 2011 alone?

What was the dollar worth then?

I have said it before but I think many things in the long term rear view mirror is not valid in comparison to what is in front of us today.

Edited August 2, 2011 by flying

[Naam]

Gold buyers here gold buyers there ..... I'm dreaming ...

Bank of Korea buys gold, first time since '97-'98 crisis

http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL3E7J12SC20110801?sp=true

and Thailand .... :whistling:

Thailand’s gold reserves rose to about 4.07 million ounces in June, from about 3.523 million ounces in May, according to figures on the Bank of Thailand’s website.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-02/gold-may-advance-to-near-record-as-slower-factory-growth-increases-demand.html

let's not forget that for every ounce "bought by a buyer" there is a "seller who sells that ounce"

Edited August 2, 2011 by Naam

[Naam]

interesting graph:

Outstanding insight from Yoo...

One could select many markets, products, economic measures etc that correlate, in specific sample periods, to the price of Gold, or any other asset.

Yoo doesnt show the previous decade, where despite numerous raising of the Debt Ceiling Gold declined.

calling something "interesting" has nothing to do with "insight" and nor does it require to mention xyz irrelevant additional references

[cloudhopper]

Holy hydrazine Doc hope the mrs was strapped in tight last night!

[flying]

Impressive lift in Gold today here in the US.

Also impressive drop in the Stock Markets.

Not sure if the Gold ramp was due to the US debt stupidity or the uncertainty of the Euro...

The Stock market a bit easier to guess but I also guess the FED will have their

fire-hoses of liquidity ready tomorrow

Ah well its all good...Or bad as the case may be depending on where you stand

Edited August 3, 2011 by flying

[edgarfriendly]

i wasnt born with stolen jews teeth hidden in my floorboards/local bank.

therefore i am the poorboy struggling to make money for rent and electricity, although i dont drink changs or any of the other slop called beverages

so maybe u have a big hat, ranch, cattle, brokeback boots on and a katoey u bribe with chains n other trinkets

no one cares how insulting you can be to whoever u think is less wealthy than yourself

ALL I ASKED WAS FOR LESS BULLSHIT.

this seems impossible, so i'll leave u to it.

MUCH THANKS TO THE GENUINE POSTERS.

ef

[Lost in LOS]

my stocks went way down last night, due to the insane US government, with and idiot for a leader.

But, my gold and silver saved me.

[cloudhopper]

I doubt very much that his early memories are filled with scenes of ease and abundance but in any cast that's quite uncalled for there ef.

Anyway ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_O0yXqxfMI

[flying]

Two interesting charts from Jesse's

Silver.....While it continues to impress

I do not regret moving out of it to 100% gold.

It is one volatile sector.

Edited August 3, 2011 by flying

[churchill]

Monetary Reform: The Beginning Of The Beginning

'Within the next few weeks, signatures will be collected to launch an initial referendum that would require the Swiss National Bank to repatriate all of its gold holdings to within the borders of Switzerland, prohibit it from selling any more of its gold, and require a minimum 20% of its assets be gold.

This initiative is likely to be very popular. The Swiss remember that during World War II, the United States refused to provide access to their gold reserves. More important, since 2000, the SNB has sold 1550 tons of gold – more than a half of its total holdings – mostly at prices below $500 an ounce, and bought European government bonds that have plummeted in value by SF40 billion, compared to a total federal budget of SF60 billion.

This referendum will put the issue of gold as money on the political agenda. The next step is to offer a follow-on initiative permitting the free-coinage of GSF.'

http://blogs.forbes.com/charleskadlec/2011/08/01/monetary-reform-the-beginning-of-the-beginning/

[gregb]

In "THIS market" Gold is not going anywhere - it is staying flat on the ground or in the ground - while everything else burns and plummets to oblivion.

As the USD$ sinks in to the abyss Gold will be re-rated as a Triple AAA asset against holding US dollars. Of course if you think the USDollar is holding it's value then the price of gold priced in USDollars will continue to increase.

If however you hold a barrel of oil you will see it too increase in terms of dollar pricing. Same goes for almost all hard assets.

In terms of other vulnerable currencies they will have the same fate as the USD against the gold price.

After all the furore and financial debacle you will see that an OZ of gold will still be an ounce of gold

Thanks for posting, and thanks flying too.

i don't own paper gold, but WOULD like to know of SHORT term possible gains by selling/buying PHYSICAL.

i know that's not too hard to comprehend, even if its not 'usual' or whatever.

So now, 2 posters have identified a possibly weakening of the gold/usd price, SHORT TERM...

And most in here seem to agree on LONG TERM gains ...

Any more...?

Naam - who's 'an complete ignorant'? me for asking questions?

Or you for being a boring troll?

don't bother answering, it's a RHETORICAL question.

Edgar the Friendly

You can not make money trading Physical Gold short-term!

i) The buy/sell spread is ridiculous and will eat your profits.

ii) I don't know of a way to leverage your capital on the physical - so unless you have large amounts of money, an armoured car, a large vault, and pay for insurance, delivery and storage the small short-term gains are unlikely to yield much at all.

If you want to make money trading gold short-term then you will have to trade futures - derivatives, options, indexes or gold stocks.

It is far easier to trade gold contracts over the internet than to get into physical gold. Same goes for Oi - would you like to take delivery of the physical??

The buy/sell spread on physical gold through any Thai investment house is 100 baht/baht weight, or around $6.80/oz. This is on either 965 or 999 gold. That is .4%, and is a quite reasonable fee. So it is possible and profitable to trade physical gold if someone is so inclined. But there are many reasons to trade gold derivatives if short term trading is what you actually want to do:

1. Credit. Derivatives give you access to margin accounts so you can buy without having to move the money around right away. Even if you don't plan on leverage, this is very convenient.

2. Simplicity. With physical gold, you have to make a trip to the investment house to buy or sell. With derivatives it can be done by the click of a mouse or a phonecall.

3. Speed. Physical gold prices in Thailand are set by the Gold Traders Association and are only reset periodically throughout the day. There are many trends that happen in gold which you can take advantage if you trade in real time.

Saying that, I only buy and hold gold for the long term. I think I've only sold twice in my life when I really needed the money. I'm not smart enough and do not have the risk appetite to trade gold. But for those who do, the above are some of the reasons why they choose derivatives over physical. However, I know many wealthy Thais who are quite happy with the old system of buying and selling physical bars and have no interest in paper gold.

Both ways are possible. It depends on what you are comfortable with. But it is not correct to say the buy/sell spreads are ridiculous. They are quite reasonable. Transport is a real issue though.

Storage is tradeoff. The risk of theft while holding physical gold in my opinion is significantly less than the risk that a gold derivative is going to turn out to be worthless due to the exposure of the company writing the derivative. I trust the metal in my hand more than the faith and credit of a company in this day and age, and it is almost impossible to beat the security of physical gold in your own safe deposit box at a bank.

[churchill]

' Thailand increased its gold reserves for the third time in a year in June, while concern about debt and sluggish growth in developed economies sent the price to record highs on Wednesday.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) data showed the Thai central bank added 18.66 tonnes, bringing its reserves to 127.524 tonnes, overtaking Singapore as the world's 25th largest holder of the metal, up from 31st.

The IMF's international finance statistics showed Russia, Kazakhstan, Greece, Ukraine and Tajikistan also added to their reserves two months ago, reflecting the trend among central banks to park more of their foreign exchange holdings in gold.

"The market generally expects central banks with growing reserves and small gold holdings to buy gold," said Jesper Dannesboe, senior commodity strategist at Societe Generale."

....... http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL6E7J30EY20110803?sp=true

as SNB Unexpectedly Cuts Rate to Curb Swiss Franc’s Gains http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-03/franc-retreats-from-records-after-unexpected-rate-cut-to-near-zero-by-snb.html

and soon ...

'Masahiro Kawai, dean and CEO of the Asian Development Bank Institue, which offers training to governments of ADB member nations, also said the central bank should send a strong message to the market that it is determined to beat deflation.

"I think monetary policy is the most important (way to stem the yen's rise)," Kawai, former deputy vice finance minister in charge of international affairs in Japan, told Reuters in an interview.

"What the Bank of Japan should do at the moment is take steps such as boldly expanding its asset buying programme or increasing its JGB purchases. There are various moves it could make."

Japan kept markets on guard for intervention and BOJ easing on Wednesday as the finance minister vowed to stem the yen's ascent and the prime minister voiced concern over economic recovery. '

ADB subsidiary: monetary easing is best way to weaken yen http://www.sharenet.co.za/news/ADB_subsidiary_monetary_easing_is_best_way_to_weaken_yen/9471b1946a81894fca272e74eb8a9ab2

Safe havens ..

Edited August 3, 2011 by churchill

[churchill]

Ha Ha

perhaps Zero reads Thaivisa !

SNB Intervenes To Lower "Massively Overvalued" Franc, Leaves Gold As Only "Safe Haven" Currency

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/snb-intervenes-lower-massively-overvalued-franc-leaves-gold-only-safe-haven-currency

[Naam]

Ha Ha

perhaps Zero reads Thaivisa !

SNB Intervenes To Lower "Massively Overvalued" Franc, Leaves Gold As Only "Safe Haven" Currency

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/snb-intervenes-lower-massively-overvalued-franc-leaves-gold-only-safe-haven-currency

Elsewhere Barclays thinks that this intervention will be more successful than the bank's horrendous meddling in the markets which ended up costing it billions in losses.

yeah right! reducing its 3-month CHF Libor target to 0.00-0.25%, from 0.00-0.75% previously will do the trick

there is no doubt that CHF is overvalued and i'm considering selling a part of what i hold. but in what currency to switch?

[Naam]

"I think monetary policy is the most important (way to stem the yen's rise)," Kawai, former deputy vice finance minister in charge of international affairs in Japan, told Reuters in an interview.

"What the Bank of Japan should do at the moment is take steps such as boldly expanding its asset buying programme or increasing its JGB purchases. There are various moves it could make."

the BoJ could ask Ben Shalom B. and Timothy G. how this is done

[churchill]

but in what currency to switch?

as you live here and can invest in the SET and ...

THB seems a good a bet as any ??

Edited August 3, 2011 by churchill

[Naam]

but in what currency to switch?

as you live here and can invest in the SET and ...

THB seems a good a bet as any ??

it would take quite some consumption of cheap booze to make me invest in the SET i hold of course cash THB for a couple of years living expenses, but most of it offshore.

[ExpatJ]

but in what currency to switch?

as you live here and can invest in the SET and ...

THB seems a good a bet as any ??

it would take quite some consumption of cheap booze to make me invest in the SET i hold of course cash THB for a couple of years living expenses, but most of it offshore.

Great dividend plays in the SET- also some hidden gems- just review the top 10 shareholder institutions in some of SET stocks- you'd be surprised at the the number being bought by global big financial players. But im biased- i made a 30% return last year on the SET (with a bit of luck i must admit :-)

[12DrinkMore]

yeah right! reducing its 3-month CHF Libor target to 0.00-0.25%, from 0.00-0.75% previously will do the trick

there is no doubt that CHF is overvalued and i'm considering selling a part of what i hold. but in what currency to switch?

The good'ol CHF is powering ahead today.

I wish it wouldn't, it is making me nervous. For the time being I'm sticking with it, may drop a bit, but there is a lot of solid support which I think will continue.

And to be honest I can't think of anything I'd want to buy with my CHF's. It feels good to hold a currency for which there is National Pride. I'm sure the Swiss will not let me down.....

[cloudhopper]

From Mish -

Mathematically it's impossible for every currency to sink vs. each other. However they can all sink against something. That something is gold and there should be no doubt that gold is reacting to competitive currency devaluation schemes of central banks.

[Naam]

Friday August 5, 2011, 8:10 am Asia Standard Summer Energy Saving Time

By Donny Chopper and Joy Shrinker

Port Moresby (Reuters) - The Central Bank of Papua New Guinea announced yesterday that it has neither bought 17.36 million ounces of gold nor added afore-said ounces to its reserves. A similar statement was issued by a spokesman of the Governing Board of Vanuatu's Central Bank. When asked the answer was "What a strange coincidence! I can confirm that we too have not bought an identical amount of gold and neither did we add said gold to our reserves."

source: http://www.naams_bullblock-shpot.com

[Naam]

yeah right! reducing its 3-month CHF Libor target to 0.00-0.25%, from 0.00-0.75% previously will do the trick

there is no doubt that CHF is overvalued and i'm considering selling a part of what i hold. but in what currency to switch?

The good'ol CHF is powering ahead today.

I wish it wouldn't, it is making me nervous. For the time being I'm sticking with it, may drop a bit, but there is a lot of solid support which I think will continue.

And to be honest I can't think of anything I'd want to buy with my CHF's. It feels good to hold a currency for which there is National Pride. I'm sure the Swiss will not let me down.....

i agree except for the "currency of national pride". export and tourist orientated Swiss businesses are suffering and employees fear for their jobs. actions of the SNB are limited, the >20 billion losses caused byformer currency interventions still weigh heavily.

Edited August 5, 2011 by Naam

[ExpatJ]

Surprising gold sell offs in the last 24 hours- gold RSI is 76 (overbought) and institutions are apparently taking profits on their gold to cover their equty losses. Im still confident its a buy and hold investment given the turmoil in Europe.

[Naam]

Strong franc throttles Swiss industry‎

Switzerland's economy is doing battle with its strong currency, the franc, and is in danger of losing it. This, at least, is the pessimistic view in broad sections of business leadership. Increasingly, the call is being made for the government to act.

With profit margins shrinking and disappearing, industry faces a sharp loss of export business, and having to put workers on reduced hours.

In the meantime, Swiss firms have tried a bit to help each other out by billing in euros within the country, not francs.

The euro is not official legal tender in Switzerland, but in transactions between companies it has already partially achieved this status.

Swiss National Bank Warns Strong Currency Threatens Economy‎

“The Swiss National Bank considers the Swiss franc to be massively overvalued at present. This current strength of the Swiss franc is threatening the development of the economy and increasing the downside risks to price stability in Switzerland.

[flying]

Surprising gold sell offs in the last 24 hours- gold RSI is 76 (overbought) and institutions are apparently taking profits on their gold to cover their equty losses. Im still confident its a buy and hold investment given the turmoil in Europe.

If it is physical you own do not be too concerned or surprised by what its paper equivalent does.

Someone whose opinion I respect has said numerous times there would be a flash crash this first week of August

Seems he is again right. He also states golds new low about the 3rd week of August.

Which means just a new low from its highs. He has also said late August may be the last time to get gold in coin form

at a reasonable premium.

Of course these are just someones thought but again someone I respect so I do enjoy watching the outcomes.

I am neither a seller or buyer as I am well placed & happy with my current position so it matters not to me. But as

I said I enjoy watching.