Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[khunjake]

Year-end Dollar Squaring + Way overbought technicals and sentiment readings on gold..

Correction to 1085-1090 zone is my best guess and will be adding around there. Run ain't over yet...

[sokal]

Year-end Dollar Squaring + Way overbought technicals and sentiment readings on gold..

Correction to 1085-1090 zone is my best guess and will be adding around there. Run ain't over yet...

your not going to get in at 1085 or 90 but I don't think. I am added today but if you are right I will add some more. These pullbacks keep getting shorter.

at this point gold is just on its way to break even on its inflation adjusted high which is over $1000 away.

[sokal]

Anyone notice the premiums jumping? Gold had a dip but the premiums for coins head up.........

only poor people and those who are interested in bakeries buy coins

only poor people and those who are interested in wiping their ass buy paper.

[sokal]

Thoughts on this pullback.

We know the Arabs have not gotten their gold, even though they asked for it 7 months ago, they are trying to start their own ETF...

We know China had a bitch of a time getting their gold in London, had to get lawyers, etc....

COMEX is delivering cash, instead of gold (technically in default already)...

We know the US Mint ain't making eagles...

We suspect worldwide ETFs are short PMs...

I think it is not crazy to assume there is a physical gold shortage, even as the price is coming down.

In light of these things, I wonder the following (tin hat on):

Would the FED let the dollar go up for a little while to get the price of gold down so that some of these places could:

1. purchase some gold, cheaper, to cover their shorts?

2. convince people that gold was a loser to get them out of it and into other things, thus loosen up weak hands and increase supply?

3. help themselves and their friends out before the whole thing collapses?

Add on bonus:

1. you look like you are defending the dollar as you are being considered for reconfimation.

2. you look like you are defending the dollar to the Chinese and others who hold lots of them.

3. You get the US public off the backs of congress and the FED for a while.

4. It helps folks swallow the story that the economy is improving.

[flying]

1. you look like you are defending the dollar as you are being considered for reconfimation.

I thought this & the Treasury Sales week were probably a big part of it too.

[Naam]

Anyone notice the premiums jumping? Gold had a dip but the premiums for coins head up.........

only poor people and those who are interested in bakeries buy coins

only poor people and those who are interested in wiping their ass buy paper.

only poor people who don't have bidets or at least bumsprays in their bathrooms wipe their asses with paper.

[flying]

Russian Central Bank to buy 30 tonnes of gold from Gokhran

Russia's Central Bank will increase its gold holdings by around 5% by buying 30 tonnes of gold from the State repository which had been planning to sell the gold on the open market.

Full Article at Link Above

[sokal]

Russian Central Bank to buy 30 tonnes of gold from Gokhran

Russia's Central Bank will increase its gold holdings by around 5% by buying 30 tonnes of gold from the State repository which had been planning to sell the gold on the open market.

Full Article at Link Above

Planning to sell on the open market was such a bluff, everyone knew it.

[teletiger]

Whilst never a fan of PM speculating............

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...-result-of.html

Regards.

[flying]

Whilst never a fan of PM speculating............

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...-result-of.html

Regards.

I like Jesse's site always interesting to read.

As for the article..... 100% agree & also see the future of physical being totally disconnected from this COMEX

for obvious reasons. It is just another casino that has nothing it seems to do with the reality.

The fact that the world looks to it for information on pricing actual physical metals has become a joke.

COMEX will eventually deliver nothing in physical & settle all in Fiat. In fact it has been reported already a few times this year in regards to claiming gold contracts. Same as as the article states in regards to silver should JP have to deliver.

Just another sham. Why call it a commodity exchange. FUBAR

If this information about the silver market is indeed true, if J.P. Morgan is this short the silver market and unable to deliver even under duress, then perhaps the US should close down the Comex, because it has shown itself unable to be the price setter for the rest of the world in a metal with such broad industrial usage.

If it is not true, then the CFTC should publish its findings from its latest study of the silver market, and give the public the assurance that there is no manipulation in the silver market, and most importantly, why.

We have little confidence in the Obama Administration these days, which includes CFTC chairman, Clinton Alumni and ex-Goldman partner Gary Gensler as well, despite tough talk about position limits to quell speculation.

"The time for talk is over" should be a general theme in the Obama presidential term. They talk a good game, but never seem to deliver any meaningful reforms already promised, except those that might favor their own special interests.

This is important. It is important because in free markets producers must commit substantial amounts of capital in exploration and production to insure an adequate supply of any industrial commodity. And purchasers and other buyers and investors must be able to make their decisions with confidence.

Edited December 16, 2009 by flying

[flying]

Also from Jesse's

Hopefully the last sentence will be their undoing.

15 December 2009

Comex Acts to Curb Speculation (in Gold)

Did J. P. Morgan send up a flare as their short positions were taking on water and listing?

"As a heads up, Gold often gets hit with a bear raid on FOMC day. Since the

miners were hit a bit today with possible front-running that might be a good

bet. Who can say in these thin markets?"

Is the US Financial Crisis Over? 1:49 PM

And After the Bell...

"The COMEX gold margin requirement is going up overnight. New levels are $5403 initial per contract (the old one was $4500), and $4002 maintenance."

Change you can believe in. Vox pecuniae and all that. LOL Why raise the margin requirments now after a ten percent correction?

The bullion banks (the bears) are edgy because the buying has been particularly robust in the physical metal at this price level, especially the further one gets from New York. Open interest in the futures has been remarkably resilient, showing very little long liquidation. A failure of the commercials is never a pretty sight.

Let's see if the Wall Street Banks can hold their ground and keep shorting into the demand from overseas.

[Orion76]

Thoughts on this pullback.

We know the Arabs have not gotten their gold, even though they asked for it 7 months ago, they are trying to start their own ETF...

We know China had a bitch of a time getting their gold in London, had to get lawyers, etc....

COMEX is delivering cash, instead of gold (technically in default already)...

We know the US Mint ain't making eagles...

We suspect worldwide ETFs are short PMs...

I think it is not crazy to assume there is a physical gold shortage, even as the price is coming down.

In light of these things, I wonder the following (tin hat on):

Would the FED let the dollar go up for a little while to get the price of gold down so that some of these places could:

1. purchase some gold, cheaper, to cover their shorts?

2. convince people that gold was a loser to get them out of it and into other things, thus loosen up weak hands and increase supply?

3. help themselves and their friends out before the whole thing collapses?

Add on bonus:

1. you look like you are defending the dollar as you are being considered for reconfimation.

2. you look like you are defending the dollar to the Chinese and others who hold lots of them.

3. You get the US public off the backs of congress and the FED for a while.

4. It helps folks swallow the story that the economy is improving.

More likely metal prices, especially silver, are being manipulated ahead of financial reform, especially position limits, allowing the pre-crash shorts to unload some of their excess positions at a better price and at a gradual pace. Look at intraday silver charts at the time where gold took a nosedive.

It does benefit the US government in several ways so if you're a conspiracy theorist, one could speculate that authorities don't have cracking down on manipulation high on their priority list.

If this thesis is correct then the short squeeze of the century in precious metals sometime in the coming months is probable.

[crs]

Anyone know the score re. tax on gold and silver bullion buys and sells in Thailand. VAT? Any tax on gains? How to avoid any taxes?

Anyone recommend a bullion/coin retailer?

Cheers.

[lannarebirth]

No call here, just a picture.

[Orion76]

No call here, just a picture.

IME, AB-CD moves have a high success rate, however if you are looking for a repeating pattern I think an arithmetic scale chart is more suitable. The log scale in your chart makes the current correction appear smaller than it really is compared to the B-C correction you point out.

If you look at the following chart it is clear that most peaks, similar to the current one, historically have been followed by about a year of sideways action.

JMO.

I do believe in more upside though, but the gold bugs may need some psycho therapy first to get over the trauma of buying at the top, thinking gold is less risky than cash, and then take a 10% loss in a couple of days

[lannarebirth]

No call here, just a picture.

IME, AB-CD moves have a high success rate, however if you are looking for a repeating pattern I think an arithmetic scale chart is more suitable. The log scale in your chart makes the current correction appear smaller than it really is compared to the B-C correction you point out.

If you look at the following chart it is clear that most peaks, similar to the current one, historically have been followed by about a year of sideways action.

JMO.

I do believe in more upside though, but the gold bugs may need some psycho therapy first to get over the trauma of buying at the top, thinking gold is less risky than cash, and then take a 10% loss in a couple of days

I'm not really pointing out any correction target. most of the charts I post are like that directory you see at shopping malls that says "you are here". That doesn't mean I don't have any opinion or that someone a bit more knowledgable than the average punter might not see a point I'm making, but I'm not selling anything here, including my POV.

I agree about the sideways, though it doesn't have to happen. If it does it would be pretty bullish LT. Might not feel like sideways to some late buyers however.

About the log charts, that's all I use. I just get more information from them in a single glance. Whatever shortcomings they have I've learned to correct in my head.

[sokal]

No call here, just a picture.

IME, AB-CD moves have a high success rate, however if you are looking for a repeating pattern I think an arithmetic scale chart is more suitable. The log scale in your chart makes the current correction appear smaller than it really is compared to the B-C correction you point out.

If you look at the following chart it is clear that most peaks, similar to the current one, historically have been followed by about a year of sideways action.

JMO.

I do believe in more upside though, but the gold bugs may need some psycho therapy first to get over the trauma of buying at the top, thinking gold is less risky than cash, and then take a 10% loss in a couple of days

Not many people went 100% in at the top. This is just a correction, 1227 will be forgotten soon enough

[Orion76]

Not many people went 100% in at the top.

What do you mean with "100% in"? Most private traders play gold with 1:10 leverage. Institutional traders 1:100 or more.

Even if you didn't get in at the top, having unrealized profits wiped out still hurts.

This is just a correction, 1227 will be forgotten soon enough

You don't know that for sure. You are probably right, but people with rigid inflexible beliefs who are 100% certain the market will behave in a certain way get hurt bad, but if you were a trader you'd already know that

[flying]

Not many people went 100% in at the top.

What do you mean with "100% in"? Most private traders play gold with 1:10 leverage. Institutional traders 1:100 or more.

Even if you didn't get in at the top, having unrealized profits wiped out still hurts.

This is just a correction, 1227 will be forgotten soon enough

You don't know that for sure. You are probably right, but people with rigid inflexible beliefs who are 100% certain the market will behave in a certain way get hurt bad, but if you were a trader you'd already know that

I see two types being discussed.

I dont believe sokal is referring to paper gold traders but folks who switched a good portion of their liquid assets to physical gold after seeing where fiat was headed.

These folks did not buy at the top although many have trickled all the way up.

As for unrealized profits being wiped out sure I guess again paper traders see it that way.

But physical holders no more see it that way than fiat holders who see the worth of their currency change daily.

Not to mention holders of coins already see the price of paper gold versus coins + premium at quite a difference already.

Seem these days you get a truer look at metals prices on Ebay than Comex

Edited December 18, 2009 by flying

[Orion76]

Flying, fair enough, when I talk about buying and selling gold I'm talking about trading futures contracts, not holding a portion of your assets in physical gold for the long term.

Nothing wrong with holding a portion of your assets in physical gold, but I'm glad I didn't buy in 1980

[Naam]

Not many people went 100% in at the top.

What do you mean with "100% in"? Most private traders play gold with 1:10 leverage. Institutional traders 1:100 or more. Even if you didn't get in at the top, having unrealized profits wiped out still hurts.

This is just a correction, 1227 will be forgotten soon enough

You don't know that for sure. You are probably right, but people with rigid inflexible beliefs who are 100% certain the market will behave in a certain way get hurt bad, but if you were a trader you'd already know that

I see two types being discussed.

I dont believe sokal is referring to paper gold traders

but folks who switched a good portion of their liquid assets to physical gold after seeing where fiat was headed.

These folks did not buy at the top although many have trickled all the way up. As for unrealized profits being wiped out sure I guess again paper traders see it that way. But physical holders no more see it that way than fiat holders who see the worth of their currency change daily. Not to mention holders of coins already see the price of paper gold versus coins + premium at quite a difference already. Seem these days you get a truer look at metals prices on Ebay than Comex

question for Flying: when exactly could folks see that "fiat was heading...?" and "where exactly did fiat head to?" i haven't seen any fiat heading to a specific destination. facts please, claims without basis, assumptions and wet dreams not acceptable.

[flying]

question for Flying: when exactly could folks see that "fiat was heading...?" and "where exactly did fiat head to?" i haven't seen any fiat heading to a specific destination. facts please, claims without basis, assumptions and wet dreams not acceptable.

Yeah yeah sorry call it USD like I meant then tell me how much your hanging on to

Nothing wrong with trading in depreciating rubbish for money or tangibles eh

[sokal]

Not many people went 100% in at the top.

What do you mean with "100% in"? Most private traders play gold with 1:10 leverage. Institutional traders 1:100 or more.

Even if you didn't get in at the top, having unrealized profits wiped out still hurts.

This is just a correction, 1227 will be forgotten soon enough

You don't know that for sure. You are probably right, but people with rigid inflexible beliefs who are 100% certain the market will behave in a certain way get hurt bad, but if you were a trader you'd already know that

I was talking about buy and hold gold investors . I bought Goldcorp at $39 nine months ago when gold was at $930. Even though I sold some at $47, now that Goldcorp went down to $40 again, its millions of ounces of reserves are worth about $160 more per ounce then they where 9 months ago. These stocks are clearly undervalued.

Let's say that it costs Goldcorp $500 to mine an ounce of gold, while gold itself is priced at $1,000 an ounce. If bullion prices rise by $100, gold moves up by 10%. But for the gold producer, that same $100 increase translates into a 20% profit, as the profit per ounce jumps from $500 to $600.

[Orion76]

sokal, I agree re: miners. For buy and hold investments I think miners (with confirmed deposits) of many natural resources are a good choice. I personally like coal / metallurgical coke.

If I was a buyer and holder of physical metals, I'd get some silver too. IMO silver is more 'precious' than gold, the bull case for a large silver rally in the near future is very compelling.

[Naam]

question for Flying: when exactly could folks see that "fiat was heading...?" and "where exactly did fiat head to?" i haven't seen any fiat heading to a specific destination. facts please, claims without basis, assumptions and wet dreams not acceptable.

Yeah yeah sorry call it USD like I meant then tell me how much your hanging on to Nothing wrong with trading in depreciating rubbish for money or tangibles eh

one can look at USD from different perspectives and at different periods. does it surprise you that today the USD ("back"-calculated on the basis of DEM/FRF) is stronger vs. €UR than in 1993 and stronger vs. JP¥ in 1995? i could have also added stronger against GPB but i'm not sure of the year and too lazy to check. most currencies, including the major ones, have been on the roller coaster of market offer and demand.

so where's the fiat beef?

but even if we assume that USD is depreciating, savvy investors were able to make gains over the years which would let the saliva dripping out of the mouths of the present holders of precious metals and hurt their pride which they display so often when bragging "ah was buying 8 years ago at XXX and now it's YYY! ah thinks ah is da finanshul supaman".

p.s. fair rebuttals are accepted, but youtube clips, citing of gurus as well as mentioning of ricefields will be rejected!

edited for addendum: just remembered that USD beat the leaving beejesus out of GBP in 1984/85, not to mention 20 postwar years when one GBP bought USD 2.80!

Edited December 19, 2009 by Naam

[basjke]

one can look at USD from different perspectives and at different periods. does it surprise you that today the USD ("back"-calculated on the basis of DEM/FRF) is stronger vs. €UR than in 1993 and stronger vs. JP¥ in 1995?

Can you tell us what you are smoking cos it must be good stuff.Take a look at the link and do some calculation and everybody will know that you are just talking BS.

historical usd exchange rate

[flying]

so where's the fiat beef?

but even if we assume that USD is depreciating, savvy investors were able to make gains over the years

I will just say the proof is in the current pudding & will continue to show the folly of unsound money.

Yes it goes without saying that a percentage of folks & especially the chosen "Too big to Fail"

have done well....obviously when the handicap of free use of billions given to them under false pretence is taken into account.

Along with other freebies such mark to fantasy & extraordinary tax breaks is given by our benevolent twisted government.

But ultimately at what cost to the whole? It is not the rich that I have concern for.

It is those & their children that believed the BS & followed the rules.

Sad to say we will probably all live to see the result. As always glad to hear you are doing fine

Edited December 19, 2009 by flying

[flying]

PS: This post where I quoted a recent article says it well...

It would have fit well into this topic as well

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Financial-Cr...10#entry3214010

[Orion76]

p.s. fair rebuttals are accepted, but youtube clips, citing of gurus as well as mentioning of ricefields will be rejected!

I think Youtube rebuttals like this one are fair game

[Naam]

one can look at USD from different perspectives and at different periods. does it surprise you that today the USD ("back"-calculated on the basis of DEM/FRF) is stronger vs. €UR than in 1993 and stronger vs. JP¥ in 1995?

Can you tell us what you are smoking cos it must be good stuff.Take a look at the link and do some calculation and everybody will know that you are just talking BS.

my only bullshit was that i did not recall the correct years. Prof. Antweiler's website which you quoted uses data is based on N.Y. forex closing which are irrelevant to me as i am a European and i always dealt forex in London or Frankfurt.

USD/DEM

Antweiler 1995/04/03 Mon = ....1.3731

Frankfurt 03-04-1995 = ............1.3632

Friday 18-12-2009 = ...............1.3636