Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[churchill]

Je Sais Pas mais

Davos 2010: George Soros warns gold is now the 'ultimate bubble'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...ate-bubble.html

I have a feeling that if the US $ continues to strengthen gold could correct under $1000 , which would be a good re-entry point .

[Naam]

Je Sais Pas mais

Davos 2010: George Soros warns gold is now the 'ultimate bubble'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...ate-bubble.html

I have a feeling that if the US $ continues to strengthen gold could correct under $1000 , which would be a good re-entry point .

quite a generalising view. why would that be a good entry point for somebody who lives in Thailand, has therefore his/her expenses in THB but derives his income in another currency than USD?

[churchill]

"quite a generalising view. why would that be a good entry point for somebody who lives in Thailand, has therefore his/her expenses in THB but derives his income in another currency than USD? "

If one thinks the $ will strenghten , as I do short term , then convert other currencies to $ ?!

Edited January 28, 2010 by churchill

[flying]

I have no intention of selling anything

Well actually I would probably sell if gold & the DOW reached a parity of 1/1

In fact even with the new higher prices if it hits a low at the end of the month I may back the truck up one more time.

I am still not comfortable with what I hold in USD & gold/silver is really my only viable option

Looks like the end of the month may play out?

Truck is idling & ready

[lannarebirth]

Well it seems you called that turn quite well. As it is back up over 1100 now after visiting that range you mentioned.

Silver did very well during that correction

which was only partly a correction but caused mainly by USD strength. without any doubt Khunjake's prediction was "right on the money" but besides looking at charts one mustn't forget the bigger picture and a number of other important factors. a good example was my re-entry into USD beginning of december (details discussed with Flying) which was not based on any charts or technical analysis.

Looking back, if this was a significant low for Gold, it will have been the only one wave correction to date. The most bearish thing I see, and of which you wouldn't be aware, is that my uncle purchased a really significant amount at $1,150. That can't be good.

Turns out not to be a one wave correction after all. Got my uncle out with $8 loss which he is thrilled about.

[LaoPo]

George Soros warns gold is now the 'ultimate bubble'

Gold is now "the ultimate bubble", billionaire investor George Soros has declared, sparking fears that prices for the precious metal may soon suffer a tumble.

More: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...ate-bubble.html

LaoPo

[Naam]

"quite a generalising view. why would that be a good entry point for somebody who lives in Thailand, has therefore his/her expenses in THB but derives his income in another currency than USD? "

If one thinks the $ will strenghten , as I do short term , then convert other currencies to $ ?!

agreed! dollar strengthened already (NOT vs. Thai Baht!) and the prevailing outlook is positive because of €UR weakness based on the greek havoc which (based on currency cross trading) weakens some other currencies vs. USD.

but where's the bearing to "if the US $ continues to strengthen gold could correct under $1000 , which would be a good re-entry point" and those of us who live in Thailand?

[flying]

George Soros warns gold is now the 'ultimate bubble'

If he is talking Paper traded gold then could be true

If he is talking physical I do not see any support for his claims.

[churchill]

"quite a generalising view. why would that be a good entry point for somebody who lives in Thailand, has therefore his/her expenses in THB but derives his income in another currency than USD? "

If one thinks the $ will strenghten , as I do short term , then convert other currencies to $ ?!

agreed! dollar strengthened already (NOT vs. Thai Baht!) and the prevailing outlook is positive because of €UR weakness based on the greek havoc which (based on currency cross trading) weakens some other currencies vs. USD.

but where's the bearing to "if the US $ continues to strengthen gold could correct under $1000 , which would be a good re-entry point" and those of us who live in Thailand?

If your Thai baht strengthens against the $ and gold falls priced in $ then you are profiting twice ?

[crusader79]

Good technical analysis on gold (apologies if already posted somewhere in these 69 pages):

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold_super_cycle/

Summary: Buying opportunities this summer, next new high toward the end of 2011.

[churchill]

Good technical analysis on gold (apologies if already posted somewhere in these 69 pages):

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold_super_cycle/

Summary: Buying opportunities this summer, next new high toward the end of 2011.

Interesting - Thanks for posting

[LaoPo]

"quite a generalising view. why would that be a good entry point for somebody who lives in Thailand, has therefore his/her expenses in THB but derives his income in another currency than USD? "

If one thinks the $ will strenghten , as I do short term , then convert other currencies to $ ?!

agreed! dollar strengthened already (NOT vs. Thai Baht!) and the prevailing outlook is positive because of €UR weakness based on the greek havoc which (based on currency cross trading) weakens some other currencies vs. USD.

but where's the bearing to "if the US $ continues to strengthen gold could correct under $1000 , which would be a good re-entry point" and those of us who live in Thailand?

I agree, but I don't worry so much about Greece rather than Spain. The Chinese will help Greece with more loans for a part of the cake in some more or less important companies like container lines.

The Greeks entered the Union in '81 with false cheating statements and profited big time since and still are.

It's a relatively small country with a very bad looking book keeping and especially a country like Germany is "not amused" to put it mildly and wouldn't mind if the Greeks would leave (forced or not) the Euro.

They have a mere GDP of some $ 340 Billion which is even less than a country like Belgium with the same population, more or less, of 11 million, which has $ 380 Billion of GDP.

Spain, however, is a different and much more dangerous cookie for the EU with a GDP of $ 1,4 Trillion and 40 million people and ENORMOUS interests and connections with South & Central America as well as the Caribbean.

But if Spain would fail.....THAT's where the problem is, not Greece; Greece would hurt but quickly forgotten but a collapse of Spain would need major Surgery to repair...if it can be repaired. But Spain is third in line after Greece and Ireland in deficits, percentage wise.

If Spain is forced to leave the Euro it would be a disaster for Europe, effecting many other countries as well.

LaoPo

[Naam]

If your Thai baht strengthens against the $ and gold falls priced in $ then you are profiting twice ?

sorry Churchill but i can't follow your mathematical reasoning.

[churchill]

If your Thai baht strengthens against the $ and gold falls priced in $ then you are profiting twice ?

sorry Churchill but i can't follow your mathematical reasoning.

This is getting a bit boring - If your 1000 Baht now buys $30 and if as you think the Baht will Strengthen to say $35 , whilst at the same time the price of gold falls - Then you are getting more gold for your 1000baht than if than if the $ were to strengthen against the baht . OK?

[Abrak]

Spain, however, is a different and much more dangerous cookie for the EU with a GDP of $ 1,4 Trillion and 40 million people and ENORMOUS interests and connections with South & Central America as well as the Caribbean.

The Spanish banks look like an accident waiting to happen.

Loan deposit ratio 160% (not good)

Loan/GDP 180%

NPLs 3.7% (yeah right)

Provisions 2.4%

So lots of potential for both a liquidity and and solvency problems. Property prices are 30% higher than Germany, yields 30% lower and 15% of homes unoccupied.

One of the things about Greece is that it doesnt just have a liquidity problem it looks insolvent. Greek exports (including services) are a maximum of 15% of GDP with which it would seem virtually impossible to pay back its borrowings especially with a chronic fiscal deficit. I think they should send Greece to the IMF. Teach everyone a lesson - if the EU goes from the position of easing cashflow to guaranteeing sovereign debt, it makes the currency a joke. Also there are signs that the EU might abandon them. Greece's credit rating is BBB+ and cannot be used for EU CB bond collateral which has a minimum rating of A-. The ECB could lower this threshold but if it does it might as well not have one. It would certainly restore some credibility to the Euro - Greece is tiny. If it is a shock, then people probably needed it. Greece is the sort of crony capitalist incompetent government that is not supposed to exist in the Euro.

If you think about it, a default by Greece and exit from the Euro, would create a divergence of interest rates to reflect the divergence in fundamentals. That would be a good thing - interest convergence was supposed to reflect convergence to prudent policy not an incentive for an inprudent one. It will also enable the EU to save Spain which doesnt have a public sector debt problem.

[Naam]

If your Thai baht strengthens against the $ and gold falls priced in $ then you are profiting twice ?

sorry Churchill but i can't follow your mathematical reasoning.

This is getting a bit boring - If your 1000 Baht now buys $30 and if as you think the Baht will Strengthen to say $35 , whilst at the same time the price of gold falls - Then you are getting more gold for your 1000baht than if than if the $ were to strengthen against the baht . OK?

it does not GET boring it IS boring and nowhere i said that i think the Baht will strengthen further.

[churchill]

If your Thai baht strengthens against the $ and gold falls priced in $ then you are profiting twice ?

sorry Churchill but i can't follow your mathematical reasoning.

This is getting a bit boring - If your 1000 Baht now buys $30 and if as you think the Baht will Strengthen to say $35 , whilst at the same time the price of gold falls - Then you are getting more gold for your 1000baht than if than if the $ were to strengthen against the baht . OK?

it does not GET boring it IS boring and nowhere i said that i think the Baht will strengthen further.

I said , he said - Yawn - you said "dollar strengthened already (NOT vs. Thai Baht!)"

[Naam]

what did SHE say?

[churchill]

She said if it is not going down and cannot stay the same it must go UP !

[teletiger]

Here's what Jesse said, in another beautifully written piece and cogent piece.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...d-holdings.html

Regards.

[Naam]

She said if it is not going down and cannot stay the same it must go UP !

after making him swallow a couple of blue diamond shaped pills

[LaoPo]

Spain, however, is a different and much more dangerous cookie for the EU with a GDP of $ 1,4 Trillion and 40 million people and ENORMOUS interests and connections with South & Central America as well as the Caribbean.

The Spanish banks look like an accident waiting to happen.

Loan deposit ratio 160% (not good)

Loan/GDP 180%

NPLs 3.7% (yeah right)

Provisions 2.4%

So lots of potential for both a liquidity and and solvency problems. Property prices are 30% higher than Germany, yields 30% lower and 15% of homes unoccupied.

One of the things about Greece is that it doesnt just have a liquidity problem it looks insolvent. Greek exports (including services) are a maximum of 15% of GDP with which it would seem virtually impossible to pay back its borrowings especially with a chronic fiscal deficit. I think they should send Greece to the IMF. Teach everyone a lesson - if the EU goes from the position of easing cashflow to guaranteeing sovereign debt, it makes the currency a joke. Also there are signs that the EU might abandon them. Greece's credit rating is BBB+ and cannot be used for EU CB bond collateral which has a minimum rating of A-. The ECB could lower this threshold but if it does it might as well not have one. It would certainly restore some credibility to the Euro - Greece is tiny. If it is a shock, then people probably needed it. Greece is the sort of crony capitalist incompetent government that is not supposed to exist in the Euro.

If you think about it, a default by Greece and exit from the Euro, would create a divergence of interest rates to reflect the divergence in fundamentals. That would be a good thing - interest convergence was supposed to reflect convergence to prudent policy not an incentive for an inprudent one.

It will also enable the EU to save Spain which doesnt have a public sector debt problem.

Spain has another very large problem...unemployment, and the official % might be published as 19,5% in December but the figure is actually a lot higher due to non-registered workers, illegal Africans and South+Central Americans without proper registration; the worst off are young people below 25.....44,5% of them in Spain are unemployed; a disaster !

Eurozone unemployment rate at 10%

Unemployment in the 16 countries that use the euro hit 10% in December for the first time since the single currency was introduced in 1999.

It had been reported that the rate hit 10% in November, but this has subsequently been revised down to 9.9%.

Some 15.8 million people are now out of work in the eurozone, according to Eurostat.

Across all 27 countries that make up the EU, there are now 23 million people unemployed.

Youth unemployment

Latvia has the highest jobless rate in the EU at 22.8%.

Spain continues to have the highest rate in the eurozone - rising to 19.5% in December, up from 19.4% in November.

EU UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

Highest:

# Latvia - 22.8%

# Spain - 19.5%

# Estonia - 15.2%

Lowest:

# Netherlands - 4.0%

# Austria - 5.4%

# Cyprus - 6.1% Source: Eurostat

The Netherlands has the lowest jobless rate at 4%, followed by Austria at 5.4%.

Some 21% of under-25s in the eurozone were unemployed in December 2009, with Spain suffering the highest rate of all, at 44.5%.

According to Eurostat, a total of 87,000 jobs were lost across the eurozone during December. That was the lowest increase since May 2008.

Responding to the figures, Howard Archer from IHS Global Insight says eurozone unemployment will increase further in the coming year.

"Although the rise in eurozone unemployment has slowed in recent months, it still seems poised to trend higher during much, if not all, of 2010," he said.

Separate figures released by the country's National Statistics Institute show that in the final three months of 2009, 4.33 million people were unemployed in Spain.

Story from BBC NEWS:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/8486768.stm

LaoPo

Edited February 1, 2010 by LaoPo

[churchill]

Could some of these countries be forced to sell their gold to raise cash ? Greece holds 112 T

[churchill]

Challenging weeks ahead ? http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

[flying]

Challenging weeks ahead ? http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

Interesting article.....

May be interesting in the next two weeks also due to something being reported briefly here....

Various sites & news but no concrete reason as yet...

They have already dumped the USD haven't they? Perhaps oil sales?

Mon, 01 Feb 2010 01:30:44 GMT

Iran will deliver telling blow to global powers on Feb. 11' : Iranian President Mahmoud AhmadinejadIranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says the nation will deliver a harsh blow to the "global arrogance" on this year's anniversary of the Islamic Revolution....

Edited February 1, 2010 by flying

[lannarebirth]

Challenging weeks ahead ? http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

Interesting article.....

May be interesting in the next two weeks also due to something being reported briefly here....

Various sites & news but no concrete reason as yet...

They have already dumped the USD haven't they? Perhaps oil sales?

Mon, 01 Feb 2010 01:30:44 GMT

Iran will deliver telling blow to global powers on Feb. 11' : Iranian President Mahmoud AhmadinejadIranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says the nation will deliver a harsh blow to the "global arrogance" on this year's anniversary of the Islamic Revolution....

Sometimes it looks like these kinds of announcements have relevance, but really not so much. That's gonna be a bad week anyway, so it's a good time to pile on with bad news. It would be a mistake to imagine the tail is wagging the dog.

[Naam]

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says the nation will deliver a harsh blow to the "global arrogance" on this year's anniversary of the Islamic Revolution...

by asking the public to buy Whoppers instead of Big Macs and drink Pepsi instead of Coke? the only thing i can think of is that they will launch a medium range ballistic missile which has an improved "reach" radius of 1.8 or perhaps 2.2 miles.

by the way, Iran has only verbally dumped the dollar as far as oil sales are concerned. the reality is different.

Mahmoud = clown

[flying]

I have no intention of selling anything

Well actually I would probably sell if gold & the DOW reached a parity of 1/1

In fact even with the new higher prices if it hits a low at the end of the month I may back the truck up one more time.

I am still not comfortable with what I hold in USD & gold/silver is really my only viable option

Looks like the end of the month may play out?

Truck is idling & ready

Ah well turned the truck off

While the end of month low did play out it came nowhere near the spot I would have jumped ( < $1050)

[Abrak]

Well the one thing I will certainly admit about gold is that its credibility as a currency seems to rise every day given everyone elses attempts to devalue theirs. I am sure there is a rush to the gold shops in Greece.... And Thailand recently imported over US$1bn worth ( for those who think an ounce is worth US$10k it is still a reasonable amount.)

I mean it seems to me, that after Obama's budget speech, the race to the bottom is just getting harder. I have an idea for the UK - they should make John Terry Chancellor of the Exchequer.

[churchill]

Could some of these countries be forced to sell their gold to raise cash ? Greece holds 112 T

"Market talk that Greece or Portugal might be prepared to sell some of their gold reserves - a substantial portion of total reserves for both countries - was played down by analysts as unlikely.

One senior dealer said hedge funds would view a gold sale by Greece or Portugal as "a last desperate throw of the dice" that would simply encourage a renewed assault in the sovereign CDS market."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/613697d8-12be-11...144feab49a.html