Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[edgarfriendly]

hi.

just wondering where gold is going in this market. thx

ef

[flying]

hi.

just wondering where gold is going in this market. thx

ef

Sorry we only *know* where its been

Edited October 12, 2010 by flying

[Naam]

hi.

just wondering where gold is going in this market. thx

ef

Sorry we only *know* where its been

forecasts are quite difficult, especially when they concern the future

[lannarebirth]

hi.

just wondering where gold is going in this market. thx

ef

Sorry we only *know* where its been

That looks like a chart that is about to go parabolic. Chok Dee.

[teletiger]

forecasts are quite difficult, especially when they concern the future

If that's original, it's a classic.

Regards.

[Naam]

forecasts are quite difficult, especially when they concern the future

If that's original, it's a classic.

Regards.

i think it is from Mark Twain. not sure though.

[teletiger]

forecasts are quite difficult, especially when they concern the future

If that's original, it's a classic.

Regards.

i think it is from Mark Twain. not sure though.

Through page 3 (of 16) and nothing yet, although "Prophesy is a good line of business, but it is full of risks."

http://www.finestquotes.com/author_quotes-author-Mark%20Twain-page-0.htm

I must thank you for showing me a whole new world of humour.

If nothing, claim it. Die famous. I'll witness. (for a fee)

Regards.

[lannarebirth]

forecasts are quite difficult, especially when they concern the future

If that's original, it's a classic.

Regards.

i think it is from Mark Twain. not sure though.

Through page 3 (of 16) and nothing yet, although "Prophesy is a good line of business, but it is full of risks."

http://www.finestquo...wain-page-0.htm

I must thank you for showing me a whole new world of humour.

If nothing, claim it. Die famous. I'll witness. (for a fee)

Regards.

Page six is good:

~ Suppose your were an idiot and suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself ~ Mark Twain

~ It could probably be shown by facts and figures that there is no distinctly native American criminal class except Congress ~ Mark Twain

[churchill]

This from http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/10/05/360961/your-golden-shoes-day/

last Tuesday 5th October - Intersting to see what gold prices do today - Prices down at this time to around $1340

and price of gold last Tuesday after above article was published

rose from $1315 to $1344/

Edited October 12, 2010 by churchill

[churchill]

The long and short of what's happening with silver

Things appear to have changed in silver trading with the bullion banks nearing a position where they may have lost control of the markets.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=112791&sn=Detail&pid=32

[flying]

That looks like a chart that is about to go parabolic. Chok Dee.

From your lips to reality's ears

Thanks

[flying]

The long and short of what's happening with silver

Things appear to have changed in silver trading with the bullion banks nearing a position where they may have lost control of the markets.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=112791&sn=Detail&pid=32

From that article....Oh I hope they get their fingers thoroughly burned

. In five trading days of buying a net 3,286 contracts the price of silver rose by $1. However the commercial banks are still a net 62,127 contracts short so at that linear rate it would take them 94 trading days to cover with a silver price of roughly $117. The resulting losses would be around $15 billion.

[flying]

Goldman Sachs' New 12-Month Gold Forecast: $1,650 an Ounce

Investment powerhouse Goldman Sachs now believes gold may rally more that 20 percent from this month's record to $1,650 an ounce in 12 months citing further quantitative easing in the United States and the prospect for falling long-term interest rates.

Goldman also raised its three- and six-month gold price forecasts to $1,400 and $1,525 an ounce, respectively.

[Abrak]

From that article....Oh I hope they get their fingers thoroughly burned

. In five trading days of buying a net 3,286 contracts the price of silver rose by $1. However the commercial banks are still a net 62,127 contracts short so at that linear rate it would take them 94 trading days to cover with a silver price of roughly $117. The resulting losses would be around $15 billion.

Now Flying I hope you dont even pretend to believe a word of that. That the silver price is going to US$117 over the next 3 months resulting in a loss of US$15bn. It might be the stuff of wet dreams but it is clearly nonsense. I find it fairly difficult to actually believe that banks are actually short of silver. It is really such a ridiculous bet on the basis that the price of silver is virtually impossible to predict a bit like gold.

Admittedly a US$15bn loss on a short position that goes up 5 times is not exactly big dough it is really why any bank would take a huge unhedged position in a PM when you can simply play the yield curve on USTs. So somehow we should assume that the banks silver position is actually a hedge by their clients that are long or silver producers that will be long in the future. In fact it doesnt take a huge imagination to consider that a Central Bank long of a PM will constantly sell forward. I have absolutely no idea what anyone is actually doing but banks having naked shorts in PMs is so stupid as to be below the average bankers intelligence. I cant see why a bank would possibly take on a naked short in PMs - it is so utterly risky and has no possible rationale.

It surely makes more sense for someone long gold or silver to short it for short term financing needs.

Essentially the size of the short must be an indicator that it isnt a short rather than it is some huge speculative punt by a bank.

[flying]

From that article....Oh I hope they get their fingers thoroughly burned

. In five trading days of buying a net 3,286 contracts the price of silver rose by $1. However the commercial banks are still a net 62,127 contracts short so at that linear rate it would take them 94 trading days to cover with a silver price of roughly $117. The resulting losses would be around $15 billion.

Now Flying I hope you dont even pretend to believe a word of that.

You know me Abrak.... I believe nothing till I see it & hear it with my own eyes & ears.

[Naam]

Goldman Sachs' New 12-Month Gold Forecast: $1,650 an Ounce

Investment powerhouse Goldman Sachs now believes gold may rally more that 20 percent from this month's record to $1,650 an ounce in 12 months citing further quantitative easing in the United States and the prospect for falling long-term interest rates.

Goldman also raised its three- and six-month gold price forecasts to $1,400 and $1,525 an ounce, respectively.

the reason GS stated (QE) indicates clearly a weaker Dollar. it would be interesting to look at GS' currency forecasts.

[Abrak]

Goldman Sachs' New 12-Month Gold Forecast: $1,650 an Ounce

Investment powerhouse Goldman Sachs now believes gold may rally more that 20 percent from this month's record to $1,650 an ounce in 12 months citing further quantitative easing in the United States and the prospect for falling long-term interest rates.

Goldman also raised its three- and six-month gold price forecasts to $1,400 and $1,525 an ounce, respectively.

the reason GS stated (QE) indicates clearly a weaker Dollar. it would be interesting to look at GS' currency forecasts.

While I am not really in the prediction game, I do not necessarily agree with your reasoning. If you believe that QE2 will lead to lower interest rates and higher inflation then gold will tend to be assumed to rise independent of the currency although a weaker currency would also be a natural assumption.

The problem I have with the assumption of a weaker dollar is that it rests on the reaction of its competing currencies. Now given the US fiscal stance implying a weaker currency and its monetary stance implying a weaker currency, it would be slightly disengenious to achieve a weaker currency by irresponsibility. The UK would not like to see their currency appreciate because they are trying to be fiscally responsible and they lose on the currency competitiveness. I think you can pretty much guarantee that competitive devaluation through monetary and fiscal irresponsibility will lead to a reaction from other countries especially those who believe they have taken responsible economic measures that is being eroded by currency appreciation.

And to some extent it is a one way bet. Because in the world of competitive devaluations who knows who wins. In a world where the UK claims fiscal responsibility, they cannot justify that responsibility being sacrificed by currency appreciation. So fiscal responsibility will be used as an excuse for monetary irresponsibility - you cannot possibly justify fiscal responsibility leading to a less competitive exchange rate. Although I admit I am not a master of spin.

[cloudhopper]

hi.

just wondering where gold is going in this market. thx

ef

Vertical at the moment.

[crusader79]

hi.

just wondering where gold is going in this market. thx

ef

Vertical at the moment.

But perhaps a significant correction coming:

http://pragcap.com/is-the-dollar-rally-about-to-kill-risk-assets

After which no change in the longer term direction of the dollar and gold, IMHO....

[cloudhopper]

After which no change in the longer term direction of the dollar and gold, IMHO....

And what would that longer term direction be IYHO?

[crusader79]

After which no change in the longer term direction of the dollar and gold, IMHO....

And what would that longer term direction be IYHO?

Continued gold rise and dollar decline....

[Naam]

After which no change in the longer term direction of the dollar and gold, IMHO....

And what would that longer term direction be IYHO?

Continued gold rise and dollar decline....

in any currency?

[churchill]

According to this months Property Report ( based on Big Mac Index !! ) The Baht is 42% undervalued to the USD , SGD 18% , RM 41% and IDR 33% ,

So Gold in USD has to go up around 40% to keep up if these currencies reach their correct ? value

[churchill]

25 interventions in a one week band, redux

from http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/10/13/368416/25-interventions-in-a-one-week-band-redux/

"Keeping up with currency wars can be a busy business.

It’s time, therefore, to give our already extensive intervention list, originally compiled on September 28, an update. And check out the emerging market entrants.

Via BNP Paribas, intervention from Egypt:

In Egypt, the Egyptian pound spiked to 5.7030/USD on tuesday with rumours of the central bank of Egypt purchasing dollars through its known arms in the local market. The CBE continues to deliver a clear policy of loosening the EGP which given the ongoing global currency wars debate makes good economic sense but might create some risks to the inflation outlook. We remain of the view that the CBE is unlikely to take USDEGP above the 5.84 level which was the level where the interbank market was introduced.

And a ‘we’re thinking about it’ entry for India:

MUMBAI (Dow Jones)–India will intervene in the foreign exchange market if capital inflows become volatile or lumpy, Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said Saturday, in what may be a sign of the central bank’s growing concern on a sharp rupee rise.

“If the inflows are lumpy and volatile or if they disrupt the macroeconomic situation, we will do so (intervene),” Subbarao said in an address to global central bankers at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, posted on the central bank’s website.

Which takes our list to* :

•Federal Reserve $ Dollar – via QE.

•Bank of England £ sterling – via QE.

•Japanese yen intervention.

•Taiwan dollar – suspected intervention.

•Argentinian peso intervention.

•Brazil real intervention fears.

•Russian ruble intervention.

•Australian dollar RBA intervention.

•SNB Swiss franc intervention.

•Poland’s NBP zloty intervention.

•Colombia’s peso intervention.

•Indonesian rupiah intervention.

•South Korean won intervention.

•Egyptian pound intervention.

•Thai baht intervention fears.

•Ukrainian hryvnia intervention.

•Israeli shekel intervention.

•Chilean peso intervention fears.

•Turkey has adjusted its reserve requirements.

•Peruvian sol intervention.

•Phillipines peso suspected intervention.

•Romanian leu intervention.

•Indian rupee intervention talk.

Which makes 23 countries, and just two short of Henry Hazlitt’s scary Bretton Woods breakdown vision. As a reminder the economist/journalist warned back in 1949 that a breakdown of the ‘flawed’ dollar-backed fixed rate exchange mechanism would lead to:

Within a single week 25 nations have deliberately slashed the values of their currencies. Nothing quite comparable with this has ever happened before in the history of the world. This world monetary earthquake will carry many lessons.

* Cautionary notes: We count everything including actual intervention, de facto intervention via such measures as quantitative easing, suspected intervention and talk of intervention. We are not counting countries that have always pegged their currencies. The list is also a living, breathing work-in-progress, updated as and when we hear of interventions."

[cloudhopper]

They should just make a single global currency backed by physical big macs.

[crusader79]

After which no change in the longer term direction of the dollar and gold, IMHO....

And what would that longer term direction be IYHO?

Continued gold rise and dollar decline....

in any currency?

That is hard to say, I'm a USD investor and invest and value on that basis (for now).

[churchill]

America Should Open Its Vaults and Sell Gold

By Edwin Truman

Financial Times, London

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2bbd4dbe-d5fe-11df-94dc-00144feabdc0.html

Gold is back in the news. Its price is soaring in what some analysts say is a reflection of a weak economy and a lack of confidence in government policies. Naturally, investors are looking at a new sure thing in the expectation that prices will continue upward. My advice to the US government, however, is that this may be the best time -- to sell. Doing so would help President Barack Obama and Congress reduce indebtedness, at little cost.

It is an article of faith in bullion markets that the US will be the last country to dispose of its gold stock. For 30 years it has had a no-net-sales policy for reasons ranging from resistance by US gold-producing interests to concerns about the international monetary system. That assumption may remain plausible. Yet the administration has an obligation to re-examine its policy.

more at http://www.gata.org/node/9150

[crusader79]

Apologies if this article has been posted here before, a lengthy but thought-provoking read:

http://www.zerohedge...t-shoeshine-boy

[Naam]

Within a single week 25 nations have deliberately slashed the values of their currencies. Nothing quite comparable with this has ever happened before in the history of the world. This world monetary earthquake will carry many lessons.

no they did NOT Churchill and alphaville spreads (as so often) pure rubbish. show me a few of the "slashed currencies" (except USD) please!

[Naam]

They should just make a single global currency backed by physical big macs.

or Chang