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The Sterling (gbp Thread


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For those of you who can’t be bothered to read all of this, this is a thread that focuses on strategies for the holders of British Pounds only (please) and attempts to identify ways that Brits holding Pounds can, at this late stage in events, protect their accumulated savings and preserve their income stream.

There’s been a number of really useful discussions of late about the future of the British Pound (GBP), how it relates to the US Dollar (USD) and the impact of those currencies on the Thai Baht (THB) exchange rate. But as might be expected in most complex discussion of a serious nature on ThaiVisa, those debates have lost focus and have moved on to discuss all manner of related and totally unrelated events. In this thread I hope we can focus on the key scenario, which is:

You are a British expat (or want to be) and you live in Thailand (or you intend to) and much if not all of your assets are in GBP and the value of the currency is being eroded. You have probably been used to receiving reasonably high rates of interest returns on your deposits and this has allowed you to live comfortably in Thailand. But now the exchange rate has fallen and is likely to fall further so you are pressured by a weakening currency and are now receiving less THB for your Pound. You may have some Thai currency and assets but GBP income and capital is your mainstay. During the next twelve months most of your income stream will disappear as your fixed rate deposits mature, what are you going to do now, the timescale you need to consider is the next two years?

The current financial picture is this:

GBP has fallen by over 20% against USD, GBP/THB exchange rates have fallen by just under a third from their recent highs, UK interest rates are currently 2% and may fall to 0% hence you may not be able to get more than a 1% or 2% return on your cash deposits.

Some Possible Options in Going Forward:

1) Do nothing and wait and see what the world looks like in twelve months, a lot could change in that time;

2) Exchange as much GBP into THB now and hope that the exchange rate don’t go against you and that the whole mess is resolved by

the time you run out of THB;

3) Invest in Gold (or other commodities), other currencies or other things;

4) Return to the UK or move to another country.

And for those readers who now say, for the love of god, not another Pound vs Thai Baht thread, we promise not to force you to read the thread if you don’t want to.

So, what are you going to do and why?

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I exchanged 10,000 pounds a couple of days ago at close to 54 - and do not have a very postive feeling either for the $ or pound at this stage - however I invested 50,000 pounds in gold stocks about 1 month ago and have seen around 20% gain - I aim to keep invested if possible to offset any potential currency loses - My personal view is that Gold and gold stocks will be positive for the next year or so .

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I was considering a 12 month trip, but with the way things are and expected to stay that has been reduced to 3 months. Surely it must be near bottom now for Sterling although cant see any upward movement untill things in Thailand start to come out in the wash.

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The move into Gold sounds like it was good, I've looked at that option a couple of times but still can't conclude on it.

As for the current level being the bottom for Sterling, I wish I could agree but suspect it isn't.

I typically have about one years worth of Baht on hand but much of that is a function of my visa requirement plus any opportunity I've seen to buy into Baht at a reasonable level. I've also hedged into EURO and YEN but not in any great quantities, I've relinquished my hold on USD entirely at this stage but continue to watch and see if there's any opportunity for a gain going forward.

I'm also watching equities with much nervousness and caution, just when I think prices look cheap, along comes a big name player in the financial arena, urging us all to buy because bottom has certainly been reached - that in itself is enough to warn me off.

Finally, I'm fixed in GBP at various rates and durations but nothing beyond one year from now, the world could look very different then.

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This whole situation is dire beyond belief. Six months ago all was fine, now I have suffered massively at the hands of Iceland and the Labour Government.

My plan, mostly now underway, is to

1. Move enough GBPs to Thailand to support me for at least the next five years plus the THB 800,000 retirement visa requirement. There are risks involved with this (Thai bank collapsing, instable government) but I consider them acceptable.

2. As my fixed term deposits mature consider where to invest outside of the UK.

3. Start looking at property investment in the UK. Not immediately to buy, but following the market and buy maybe in a year or so.

4. Reduce my outgoings and cancel plans of holidays out of Asia.

5. Buy a new motorcycle (come on Kawasaki with that ER6N), so I have a little bit of pleasure.

6. Review my skills and consider the unthinkable ... working again.

And hunker down, drink beer and try to remain optimistic.

Presumably you noticed that Brown is looking to tax offfshore deposits under the guise of depositor protection? So not only will we earn zilch, but he will tax us as well. The man will stop at nothing until we all have to work until we are dead.

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I think you really have to have some investment in thailand which will give you some kind of income in baht - I am invested , but unable to draw a regular income , which makes me slightly nervous , but I do have assets to sell over here if needs be .

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This whole situation is dire beyond belief. Six months ago all was fine, now I have suffered massively at the hands of Iceland and the Labour Government.

My plan, mostly now underway, is to

1. Move enough GBPs to Thailand to support me for at least the next five years plus the THB 800,000 retirement visa requirement. There are risks involved with this (Thai bank collapsing, instable government) but I consider them acceptable.

2. As my fixed term deposits mature consider where to invest outside of the UK.

3. Start looking at property investment in the UK. Not immediately to buy, but following the market and buy maybe in a year or so.

4. Reduce my outgoings and cancel plans of holidays out of Asia.

5. Buy a new motorcycle (come on Kawasaki with that ER6N), so I have a little bit of pleasure.

6. Review my skills and consider the unthinkable ... working again.

And hunker down, drink beer and try to remain optimistic.

Presumably you noticed that Brown is looking to tax offfshore deposits under the guise of depositor protection? So not only will we earn zilch, but he will tax us as well. The man will stop at nothing until we all have to work until we are dead.

Sorry to hear that you got caught up in the Iceland fiasco.

I'm also on board with point 3 and am watching that closely also, I think I see good bargains there already but would not consider buying for some time yet, probably at least twelve months. Point 1 concerns me though, five years worth of Baht seems like a long time, not sure I would go that long but yes, get the currency now in some amount so you have some security.

Definitely on board with the having some fun part, we all need to do that otherwise this whole thing becomes dire. Yes I had spotted Gordo's attempts to tax me, it'll be cold day in h_ll before he does.

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I think you really have to have some investment in thailand which will give you some kind of income in baht - I am invested , but unable to draw a regular income , which makes me slightly nervous , but I do have assets to sell over here if needs be .

I agree, but I've been trying to figure out what that might be for many years and I still can't see it, nothing makes financial business sense to me here from an investment standpoint.

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I was considering a 12 month trip, but with the way things are and expected to stay that has been reduced to 3 months. Surely it must be near bottom now for Sterling although cant see any upward movement untill things in Thailand start to come out in the wash.

Near bottom?

Not while Brown is intent on zero interest rates and then, wait for this to be on everybody's lips "quantitative easing". A nice and unalarming way of saying "let the printing press rip", which basically means he can produce as much paper as he wants with the words, "i promise to pay the bearer"....another piece of paper, what a joke.

This has all gone insane because he is desperate to win the next election, and is prepared to shaft us all heavily up the Khyber to do so.

I don't know what you expect to see come out of the wash in Thailand. The average Thai is not in debt to anywhere near the level of the British (taking into account the difference in salary levels), the Thai government does not have close to the liabilities of unemployment benefit, National pensions, State pensions and foreign debt that the UK has. And then add in the trillion or so of even more debt in propping up the banks. And due to the weather, the abundance of crops and fruit it is impossible for Thailand to starve.

Nope, I think that Thailand is well positioned to weather this storm.

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i thought from your user names you were based in Chaing Mai and was going to suggest , with your wife or another Thai partner , buying farming land , I've seen very cheap land planted with teak wood , or other farming land which would certainly generate an income ,or land to the north of Chaing Mai for future development . As you are based in Phuket maybe more difficult .

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I have followed some of the OP's advice from a few days ago. I have transferred telegraphically {at 53.88} enough Thai Baht for all living expenses in Thailand for the whole of 2009.

I have also arranged for a basket of three currencies YEN/US$/CHF to be held in my main offshore Isle of Man bank account. My main current account pays just 0.1% so I only hold enough for emergencies and direct debits for the year 2009.

I bought a bit of gold here in Thailand (But that was only a 10 baht bar).

The main action, has been to place ALL of my GBP offshore savings into one account BBI Isle of Man: It currently pays 4% interest on a 2% base rate (eaccess2 account).

So during 2009, I shall just sit back and hope for the best.......

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The main action, has been to place ALL of my GBP offshore savings into one account BBI Isle of Man: It currently pays 4% interest on a 2% base rate (eaccess2 account).

I wouldn't do that, there is too much risk in putting it into one bank. The Icelanders with Landsbanki and KSF, where I had accounts have hit me very badly. The IOM deposit scheme up to 50,000 Quid, is nowhere near fully funded and it could potentially take decades for them to pay out.

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I have followed some of the OP's advice from a few days ago. I have transferred telegraphically {at 53.88} enough Thai Baht for all living expenses in Thailand for the whole of 2009.

I have also arranged for a basket of three currencies YEN/US$/CHF to be held in my main offshore Isle of Man bank account. My main current account pays just 0.1% so I only hold enough for emergencies and direct debits for the year 2009.

I bought a bit of gold here in Thailand (But that was only a 10 baht bar).

The main action, has been to place ALL of my GBP offshore savings into one account BBI Isle of Man: It currently pays 4% interest on a 2% base rate (eaccess2 account).

So during 2009, I shall just sit back and hope for the best.......

You want to be careful about following any advice I give, I don't know what I'm doing, if I did I wouldn't be making posts like these to try and figure out what you're doing so I can copy your idea's! :o Seriously though, I think that was probably the right thing to do, it's difficult enough to work out a longer term strategy, especially when you are worried about not having enough Baht for the next three months. Having the hedge currencies is also a sound idea although you may want to keep an eye on what they are doing over the course of the year and be prepared to change as needed.

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The main action, has been to place ALL of my GBP offshore savings into one account BBI Isle of Man: It currently pays 4% interest on a 2% base rate (eaccess2 account).

I wouldn't do that, there is too much risk in putting it into one bank. The Icelanders with Landsbanki and KSF, where I had accounts have hit me very badly. The IOM deposit scheme up to 50,000 Quid, is nowhere near fully funded and it could potentially take decades for them to pay out.

I think the danger of bank collapse is not so great today as it was six months ago. Governments everywhere have taken action to ensure that consumer deposits don't get damaged as a result of this mess, Iceland and Lehman Brothers notwithstanding. Also, isn't BBI part nationalized now, I've lost track.

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The main action, has been to place ALL of my GBP offshore savings into one account BBI Isle of Man: It currently pays 4% interest on a 2% base rate (eaccess2 account).

I wouldn't do that, there is too much risk in putting it into one bank. The Icelanders with Landsbanki and KSF, where I had accounts have hit me very badly. The IOM deposit scheme up to 50,000 Quid, is nowhere near fully funded and it could potentially take decades for them to pay out.

I think the danger of bank collapse is not so great today as it was six months ago. Governments everywhere have taken action to ensure that consumer deposits don't get damaged as a result of this mess, Iceland and Lehman Brothers notwithstanding. Also, isn't BBI part nationalized now, I've lost track.

Yes, now it is nationalised it is as safe as the Bank of England.

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i thought from your user names you were based in Chaing Mai and was going to suggest , with your wife or another Thai partner , buying farming land , I've seen very cheap land planted with teak wood , or other farming land which would certainly generate an income ,or land to the north of Chaing Mai for future development . As you are based in Phuket maybe more difficult .

Chiang Mai was home for a few years but now it's Phuket. I can't really see myself as a farmer/landowner although I have friends who have bought into rubber plantations successfully. Who knows, maybe in the future that's an option. When folks talk about gaining income in Thailand it's usually, buy a bar, teach or open a restaurant or a shop, none of those things are me and/or appeal. Feel free to keep the idea's coming however.

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these are very worrying times for those who rely on gbp.

we recently sold some land here and made a good profit on it too , it will provide for us for three to four years here in thailand. some of it has been re invested here at 4.25% for 12 months with the banks.

i have a big offshore bond (gbp) maturing next week and am tearing my hair out trying to decide how to re invest it sensibly. i am considering a split between euros at 2.67% for 6 months and pounds at 4.10% for 6 months with hbos/lloyds offshore in the iom , i think the danger of banks collapsing now is unlikely , but who really knows exactly what surprises are round the corner , every week seems to bring more devastating disclosures of mismanagement , frauds and writeoffs and i think the gbp has a way to go before it bottoms. i am also considering some aussie dollars at 4.4% in barclays iom offshore.

i have little to zero knowledge of financial affairs and follow the financial threads on thai visa with great interest and wish i had the knowledge and the balls to do some currency trading. i am not a risk taker and probably too cautious for my own good. 6 months ago i was laughing , 6.75% interest tax free , and no need to touch the capital , now things are very different.

i would like to invest in gold , but have no idea how to go about it.

normally i would say , just sit it out for 6 months and wait for the bounceback , but in these uncertain times i just dont think things will recover so quickly , and have nightmares of the gbp becoming a joke currency like the zimbabwe pound or dollar.

it seems that governments and financial experts around the world have little knowledge either of exactly how to control all this and as usual , it is the savers and workers who will all suffer at the hands of greedy risk taking bankers , head in the sand regulators and loudmouthed and vote seeking politicians all of whom are flying blind into the mountainside.

the best bet would be to get some income in thai baht to cover living expenses here and bring over as little as possible in gbp until the rates improve , whenever that will be.......or hope for a devaluation of the baht , although that will do little to change the fate of the gbp.

the best way to get income in thailand is from property rental , but that requires a large investment and in these uncertain times the supply of renters may well dry up too.

good luck to each and every one of us with a gbp derived income.

heres to better times.

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we recently sold some land here and made a good profit on it too , it will provide for us for three to four years here in thailand. some of it has been re invested here at 4.25% for 12 months with the banks.

That's a good rate, where did you get that?

i am also considering some aussie dollars at 4.4% in barclays iom offshore.

That currency is very commodity and carry-trade dependent. No idea how much the carry trade is, as a lot shot back to Japan recently. Long term I see a better future for Oz than the UK, they have the raw commodities that will be required once this mess is over. I don't think the banking and political expertise in the UK will be in demand. I have also invested in Aussies for a long term strategy.

i have little to zero knowledge of financial affairs and follow the financial threads on thai visa with great interest and wish i had the knowledge and the balls to do some currency trading.

Presumably you mean day trading nonsense. Avoid it, you will loose money, go gray and have ulcers. Don't believe what these guys say. For every one that makes a living there are dozens of wanabee lostalots.

6 months ago i was laughing , 6.75% interest tax free , and no need to touch the capital , now things are very different.

so were we all, may never happen again, there is too much debt to be inflated away (together with our savings)

it seems that governments and financial experts around the world have little knowledge either of exactly how to control all this and as usual , it is the savers and workers who will all suffer at the hands of greedy risk taking bankers , head in the sand regulators and loudmouthed and vote seeking politicians all of whom are flying blind into the mountainside.

globalisation and its results have never been fully understood. We have no comparison. We also have no comparison model for the way the banks have been creating money out of nothing, or rather debts. The governments are now uniformly trying to apply an ancient model developed by Keynes, which, IMO, is hopelessly inadequate to handle the current global crisis.

good luck to each and every one of us with a gbp derived income.

I am moving away as much as I can without incurring penalties.

heres to better times.

May they come quickly.

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these are very worrying times for those who rely on gbp.

we recently sold some land here and made a good profit on it too , it will provide for us for three to four years here in thailand. some of it has been re invested here at 4.25% for 12 months with the banks.

i have a big offshore bond (gbp) maturing next week and am tearing my hair out trying to decide how to re invest it sensibly. i am considering a split between euros at 2.67% for 6 months and pounds at 4.10% for 6 months with hbos/lloyds offshore in the iom , i think the danger of banks collapsing now is unlikely , but who really knows exactly what surprises are round the corner , every week seems to bring more devastating disclosures of mismanagement , frauds and writeoffs and i think the gbp has a way to go before it bottoms. i am also considering some aussie dollars at 4.4% in barclays iom offshore.

i have little to zero knowledge of financial affairs and follow the financial threads on thai visa with great interest and wish i had the knowledge and the balls to do some currency trading. i am not a risk taker and probably too cautious for my own good. 6 months ago i was laughing , 6.75% interest tax free , and no need to touch the capital , now things are very different.

i would like to invest in gold , but have no idea how to go about it.

normally i would say , just sit it out for 6 months and wait for the bounceback , but in these uncertain times i just dont think things will recover so quickly , and have nightmares of the gbp becoming a joke currency like the zimbabwe pound or dollar.

it seems that governments and financial experts around the world have little knowledge either of exactly how to control all this and as usual , it is the savers and workers who will all suffer at the hands of greedy risk taking bankers , head in the sand regulators and loudmouthed and vote seeking politicians all of whom are flying blind into the mountainside.

the best bet would be to get some income in thai baht to cover living expenses here and bring over as little as possible in gbp until the rates improve , whenever that will be.......or hope for a devaluation of the baht , although that will do little to change the fate of the gbp.

the best way to get income in thailand is from property rental , but that requires a large investment and in these uncertain times the supply of renters may well dry up too.

good luck to each and every one of us with a gbp derived income.

heres to better times.

It's interesting how most Brits seem reluctant to get out of GBP entirely and swap into something more stable, part of that is because it's really difficult to figure out what that stable something might be! One approach that has already been suggested is to hold a range of currencies and that has merit although it could turn out to be a nightmare also. I was reading a few minutes ago on BBC that GBP AND USD are now sliding, hand in hand together.

As far as your maturing deposit is concerned: if it's any consolation I just fixed £50K for one year with HBOS offshore at 4.5%. The problem was that I needed to do something with the money and the choices were to take that fix or vacillate and watch the decent rates disappear in the process.

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On the subject of banks paying decent rates: if anyone is still looking for a home for some GBP Nationwide International in the IOM is paying 5.35% on a tracker account that seems frozen in time, it's only moved once from 6.3% so it looks like they are buying deposits. Also at NWI is a one year fix at 4.10%, HBOS IOM is now 4.0% for one year and 3.5% for two years.

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Taxexile

you stated,

here in thailand. some of it has been re invested here at 4.25% for 12 months with the banks.

I would be interested to know with what bank, what sort of account and in what currency you are able to get 4.25% in thailand.

the best way to get income in thailand is from property rental , but that requires a large investment and in these uncertain times the supply of renters may well dry up too.

last sunday the wife and I looked at property thats on the market for 15 million baht, giving an income of 90,000 baht per month, or 7.2% per year, all looks fine and dandy, what the seller forgot to tell us is the renters are about to lose their jobs as the factory is about to close.

I know of someone who sunk their life savings into property in pattaya expecting a guaranteed income ( you have to laugh dont you ) of 240,000,baht per month, needless to say that didnt materialize.

The same investor is now willing to drop the price he paid for the properties by almost 30%, just to get back in pounds sterling what was paid, I dare say if I wait a bit longer I could get a further reduction if I was so inclined.

My best advice, for what its worth, dont touch anything in thailand just now, I personally believe we are just seeing the tip of the iceberg, property wise.

As you say, good luck to all, however I dare say those of us who remember the pound as low as 32 baht and an average of 38/40 as the norm consider anything above to be a bonus, and made plans accordingly.

Best of luck to all, I am now reduced to having to drink 12 year old malt instead of 18 year old, whats to become of us, where will it end I ask myself.

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here in thailand. some of it has been re invested here at 4.25% for 12 months with the banks.

I would be interested to know with what bank, what sort of account and in what currency you are able to get 4.25% in thailand.

kiatnakin bank , 12 month time deposit , in baht.

they pay interest monthly. but as i said above , its not available anymore , we got in on the last day.

p.s. ..... with a year long free pass to some business class lounge at suwannaphum airport thrown in !!

My best advice, for what its worth, dont touch anything in thailand just now, I personally believe we are just seeing the tip of the iceberg, property wise.

i have a similar feeling , but then again , thailand often seems to be from a different planet and the normal laws of physics , chemistry and economics just dont seem to work here !!

i live here in a state of permanent bemusement at what passes for normality in all spheres of life. part of the attraction of the place i think.

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My view on this is that by the time I retire, in perhaps another five or so years, the markets will have settled and what ever the exchange rate is I will have accepted that as the norm. Looking back to my first spell in Thailand when the Bht/£ rate was around Bht35~38/£ I'm reminded just how soon people can get used to a change in exchange rates.

My retirement plan is based on being able to afford a comfortable retirement in the UK/Italy, it is not based on being able to afford to retire in Thailand.

In the meantime, I don't plan on moving any money out of the UK, we have property in the UK and Italy, so something of a hedge if we decided to sell either and our property in Thailand is payed-up, so no major spends due.

With the currency fluctuations in mind I will probably negotiate a two currency deal for my next assignment so as to even my costs. Other than that I've made my plan, I'm going to work the plan and I'm not get caught out by the lure of a cheap retirement.

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My view on this is that by the time I retire, in perhaps another five or so years, the markets will have settled and what ever the exchange rate is I will have accepted that as the norm. Looking back to my first spell in Thailand when the Bht/£ rate was around Bht35~38/£ I'm reminded just how soon people can get used to a change in exchange rates.

My retirement plan is based on being able to afford a comfortable retirement in the UK/Italy, it is not based on being able to afford to retire in Thailand.

In the meantime, I don't plan on moving any money out of the UK, we have property in the UK and Italy, so something of a hedge if we decided to sell either and our property in Thailand is payed-up, so no major spends due.

With the currency fluctuations in mind I will probably negotiate a two currency deal for my next assignment so as to even my costs. Other than that I've made my plan, I'm going to work the plan and I'm not get caught out by the lure of a cheap retirement.

Yes, but at that time about 12/13 years ago, bank interest rates in Thailand where up to 13%.

The cost of living was only a quarter as is of present and one could live off the interest on 1 million baht invested in a bank account without using the capital.

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Its often said on here that no one is clever enough to predict exchange rates accurately. Sometimes we can see trends and go with the flow but unexpected events usually crop up and make fools of us.

The worst of the banking crisis may be over but there are still people out there saying that there is much, much more bad news to emerge and that the very existence of some banks is threatened.

Governments are doing their best to mitigate the crisis but the record shows that most government action fails to achieve its objectives. Indeed much government effort and legislation is subjected to the law of unintended consequences and actually has the opposite effect of what was intended.

So if you believe that Gordon Brown really can save the world then you can relax and wait and see. If you don't believe his rhetoric then action is needed.

A mixture of asset classes such as foreign currency deposits, offshore banks, gold (not for me thanks), bonds and maybe even index trackers or direct share purchases can all be mixed and matched to suit your risk appetite. Hopefully, a spread of assets will give a better result than risking all in one class.

But. History shows that when a democratically elected politician knows that taxes need to be raised to pay for endless government expenditure, the usual response is to borrow more not impose higher taxes. The other proven method of hiding tax increases is to allow the currency to debase so that the debt reduces in real terms. In other words create inflation which transfers wealth from the lender to the borrower who is repaying his loan in a less valuable currency. This silent stealth tax of inflation is much preferred by Politicians.

My feeling is that despite the emphasis on deflation recently, there will be massive inflation before too long to mop up all the cash that has been thrown at the banks and other targets to keep the economy functioning. 'Too big and important to fail' as they have claimed.

So what to do? One part of a strategy is to buy the maximum permitted amount of National Savings and Investments Index Linked Certificates. At any one time you can purchase 15000 UKP of 3 year term and another 15K of 5 year term.

As each new tranche is released you can buy another 30k without limit.

They are guaranteed to match the rise in the RPI (not CPI) and pay 1% interest on top. So you are guaranteed to beat inflation as measured by RPI by 1%. The next issue will have a different interest rate which is announced when launched.

AT present with the prospect of deflation the Certificates don't have a great appeal. But only three months ago the UK treasury was fighting the threat of INflation and not concerned about DEflation. Things change fast, By buying now you can top up with each issue and be protected to the extent of your total holding should we experience another rate of 25% last seen in 1975 or Nigel Lawson's 11% in 1990. The terms are very soft and you can sell at any time although indexing and interest is only added after you have held them for one year.

None of this helps protect you against exchange rate fluctuations but at least you will be able to return to UK with your savings intact. If you think that there will never be another 25% annual inflation then did you think you would ever see 0% bank rates? Its worth considering.

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