Gold Up In 2008 , Where To In 2009 ?

[flying]

Did Vicky ever get his 600 USD buy in ???

No I am sure he is still waiting & hoping

Interesting to note if he had invested in Oct 08

He would have a gain now of 19.24% in gold & 12.58% in Silver.

That does not seem so bad in this market eh?

And yes that is WITH the premiums paid

Edited February 13, 2009 by flying

[churchill]

Looks as if Gold will be on of the few investments to be positive for 2008 , where will it be this time next year $1500 or $750 ?

Many seem to be on the gold bandwagon now , with a fair amount of guests on CNBC and other places recommending Gold as one of the few places they would feel comfortable investing , with a view that as and if the dollar declines gold will rise .

I feel that investors and advisors wanting to have a balanced portfolio for 2009 may well increase their holdings in gold and gold mining shares and that we could see quite a spike in the coming months .

I've considered buying gold but will go with oil futures instead. I'm concerned that we are seeing a panic run into gold just like when the world was scrambling to buy oil at 147 /barrel last year...now it's 36 / barrel. I'm buyng USO and DXO now and will just hold it longterm. Am thinking shorting gold thru DGZ but that would be quick in and out trades

You could be right - but Gold might breakout strongly to the upside - http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=31492&amp...;cg=4&mset= see below

Gold price still in a resistance zone, although upside gets bigger

Source: TheGoldandOilGuy.com , Author: Chris Vermeulen

Posted: 12-02-2009 Back Email Print RSS Feeds

INTERNATIONAL. Gold and gold equities have performed well over the past two months climbing in value as the broad market drifts sideways waiting for buyers or sellers to step up to the plate.

I am hearing traders in a panic saying they think gold is going to start moving US$100 per day and are jumping on the band wagon, and that gold’s going to US$3,500 per ounce soon.

While that is possible I just don’t see it happening right now and that we need to jump on the band wagon and chase this high price. I provided three charts of gold and gold equities to show you how I see things right now.

Gold has been trading up here in this range for the past three weeks and to me it is looking very unstable and toppy. I expect to see some type of pullback towards our support trend line as profit takers step. I like to buy during pullbacks but unfortunately we had the news with the bailout plan and that scared investors and they dumped a bunch of money back into gold the past two days giving gold a nice move higher.

This heightened fear level could push gold higher for a couple days, but a retrace will eventually have to happen. I also want to point out the huge volume today. The last time we saw this type of volume was when gold made a huge move higher and almost marked the high for the previous rally in September. I am not reading into this much but it’s something to note.

Gold equities posted a nice move higher today as they move closer to their ascending wedge pattern. While this is a bullish pattern and stocks of all types are starting to have buyers push them higher, I do want to mention that this bullish pattern looks a little weak.

As you can see in the chart it is battling the 200 moving average, momentum looks to be diverging as well as the stochastic indicator. The one really good thing gold equities have going for them is that if the broad market is bottoming and start to move higher which could pull gold down as investors dump their money into growth stocks, these gold stocks will benefit as investors put their money into gold stocks as well pushing them higher.

As you can see on the monthly chart, gold stocks are currently under long term resistance and the 50 moving average. Like I mentioned earlier gold stocks should perform well when the market bottoms giving them an extra boost if gold continues higher. I thought that this monthly chart shows the bearish trend and that gold stocks are at resistance looking from a distance.

Crude oil traders continue to see the downward selling pressure which has haunted oil prices for the past seven months as oil hits a multi year low again.

Gold and oil trading conclusion

Both gold and gold equities are on a buy signals, if you are long or decide to buy here remember to place stop orders to protect yourself in case things rollover. Its better to break even or have a small loss than it is to hold big losing position for a long time. You can always buy it back if things look bullish even if it happens to be the next day.

The broad market is starting to look like its bottoming as buyers stepped back in today as we reached the bottoms for the SP500 and Dow. We won’t see a big rally until oil bottoms and turns up lifting energy stocks, and we need the financial stocks to start moving higher as well. Once they start moving up then I expect we will see some exciting gains in stocks as investor will have confidence again. Looking at oil I expect we will see lower prices over the next week or so as it hopefully flushes out the last of the sellers.

Because the market looks to be bottoming I will be looking at some speculative stocks which are showing signs of strength and have big potential. Most of these stock plays are explosive. Trades will last anywhere from three days to two months. The down side risk on some of these could be 15%, but potential reward will be 25% plus. This is a stock pickers market now and finding the individual stocks at times like this can be life changing.

If you have any questions or would like to receive the author's trading newsletters visit www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Edited February 13, 2009 by churchill

[Naam]

If you have any questions or would like to receive the author's trading newsletters visit TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

don't be shy guys, i need your subscriptions. once i hit a thousand they will net me enough to conduct a decent lifestyle. what do you mean i should trade Gold and Oil? you think that i'm a prophet and could make a living from it then i don't have to write newsletters? c'mon, be fair. live and let live! it's only 29 bucks a month. how much do you spend for Chang?

Monthly Subscription ($29.00 USD) Quarterly Subscription ($79.00 USD) Yearly Subscription ($299.00 USD)

[flying]

http://www.amconmag.com/article/2009/feb/09/00016/

Under a commodity standard, people could save for the future by accumulating gold and silver coins. The coins’ value appreciated over time because of their natural increase in purchasing power, as the relatively slow increase in the production of precious metals was outpaced by the much faster increase in the production of other goods and services. Today, only a fool would try to save for the future by piling up dollar bills. Everyone is forced to enter the financial markets, which are risky even for knowledgeable investors, in order to prevent the value of his retirement savings from vanishing before his eyes

Edited February 13, 2009 by flying

[HardenedSoul]

Hmm . . . wasn't it VegasVic who reckoned we'd seen the high in gold for 2009 in mid-Jan ? It would appear that the faith placed in Western governments' ability to save their collective backsides was somewhat misplaced.

Having said that, there is an awful lot of bullishness surrounding gold at the moment. all you've got to do is watch CNBC for 10 minutes and you'll notice a definite bias towards the yellow metal, often from the same tools who berated it as "having no intrinsic value" or "not paying interest or dividends". This new bullishness is similar to that characterizing the flight to US Treasuries and, although the bubble there hasn't quite popped yet, it should serve as a warning that, despite gold's obvious superior fundamentals over Treasuries, the party could soon be over.

Hope not, though

[flying]

Hmm . . . wasn't it VegasVic who reckoned we'd seen the high in gold for 2009 in mid-Jan ?

It was VVwho assured me in Oct 08 I was making a mistake

Here is an article by a college student.

Not a recommendation by me to buy just a article I read.

Interesting to see the perspective from a college student view.

http://mises.org/story/3302

[flying]

Boy when the Wall Street Journal starts asking for a new sound money...........

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123440593696275773.html

[Lost in LOS]

gold just hit 963

[churchill]

It looks as if it is going to 1000 , will it stay there or above this time ?

[flying]

It looks as if it is going to 1000 , will it stay there or above this time ?

It matters little to me as I hold physical & dont trade sell it but.....A very good cyclist I read had said many months ago that gold would reach a high around the 2nd week of Feb then retrace to a new higher low in Mid March.

So there may be one last chance to buy a bit more

But that aside have you seen silver? Smokin too

Silver is up 17% since Oct

Gold is up close to 22% since Oct

They are doing ok aren't they?

But I believe that cyclist knows there will be some down soon

& hopefully we can top up a bit.

Edited February 17, 2009 by flying

[HardenedSoul]

Funny how the VegasVics and the Naam's fall silent as their faith in government tinkering proves to be as misplaced as a sausage roll at a barmitzvah. The deleveraging of late last year saw people pile into US Treasuries as a "safe"-haven

Now everyone's deleveraged and the US government's clueless as to what to do, it's suddenly dawned on investors that even if the governments did know what to do, it's still gonna cost trillions to artificially extract Western economies from their recessions and that means bonds that are paying sweet FA as it is in terms of yield are going to pay back principal which will be worth significantly less in the face of a devalued currency.

Wait until AIG comes back for more readies which it will do soon. This time they'll be asking for $300bn to cover their rings on all the corporate CDSs they wrote "safe" in the knowledge that no American mega-corp would go down

I don't give a monkey's if gold pulls back, I've doubled my initial sterling investment in 15 months. Wonder how much more it'll be worth when they nationalize Lloyd's or Barclays ?

[flying]

I don't give a monkey's if gold pulls back, I've doubled my initial sterling investment in 15 months. Wonder how much more it'll be worth when they nationalize Lloyd's or Barclays ?

I am the same. I have no problem loading up one more time if a pull back should occur.

The thing I never understand about all this increase in the currency supply & those that still hold to it as the safe spot is this.............

Many folks have bought a stock or two in their lifetime yes?

If they owned shares in say ....Microsoft & suddenly MS said ok we are going to split the stock a few more times...... They as holders would be pretty upset to hear they will not be doubled up on their shares but instead diluted.

Yet when it comes to Fiat no problem? Perhaps I am missing something?

[Naam]

Funny how the VegasVics and the Naam's fall silent as their faith in government tinkering proves to be as misplaced as a sausage roll at a barmitzvah. The deleveraging of late last year saw people pile into US Treasuries as a "safe"-haven

it's quite funny and interesting to watch clowns making unsubstantiated claims based solely on their wild phantasies and/or wet bedsheets.

addendum: put up by quoting me or shut up.

Edited February 17, 2009 by Naam

[churchill]

From Naam's favourite paper .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4682554...ank-crisis.html

[Naam]

From Naam's favourite paper .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4682554...ank-crisis.html

The Telegraph can be only a favourite newspaper for those who believe any rubbish a journ@sslist writes. an outstanding example of rubbish and total ignorance is this part of the article linked above is:

quote: "The euro dived two cents to $1.26 against the dollar, threatening to break below a 24-year upward trend line."

nota bene: book EURo exists since 10 years, physical EURo exists since 8 years. but of course an inhabitant of a remote island wouldn't know that.

[flying]

From Naam's favourite paper .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4682554...ank-crisis.html

Ok now that is scary !

How did they know I was stashing there?

Billionaires are stashing boxes of krugerrands under the floors of their Swiss chalets.

Of course they are probably also aware I am a billionaire in Zimbabwe only

[lannarebirth]

Now everyone's deleveraged

What makes you think so?

[churchill]

Problems in Euro economies pushing Gold higher

http://www.sirchartsalot.com/article.php?id=104

[churchill]

or is it time to sell ?

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/preci...fits-14628.aspx

I think it still has further to go - until currencies and banking problems are sorted I think the safest place to be .

[WOWAsia]

the first 3 post in this sub forum are about Gold - in a thailand Forum, surely we are closer to a top than to a bottom,

I bet in the year 2001/2002 there was no Gold post in this forum!

[HardenedSoul]

Funny how the VegasVics and the Naam's fall silent as their faith in government tinkering proves to be as misplaced as a sausage roll at a barmitzvah. The deleveraging of late last year saw people pile into US Treasuries as a "safe"-haven

it's quite funny and interesting to watch clowns making unsubstantiated claims based solely on their wild phantasies and/or wet bedsheets.

addendum: put up by quoting me or shut up.

With respect - due or otherwise - many of your posts berating those bullish on gold tend to centre on the belief that - somehow, some way - fiat money will endure despite the systematic devaluation they are going to suffer as a result of the unprecedented levels of money being printed to prop up Western economies and their financial systems, aka "government tinkering". I draw inference from that and I'd imagine most would.

Your allusions to agricultural investment are fairly sound, granted but you often suggest that gold has no intrinsic value and wheel out the "gold is worth nothing on a desert island" argument. Let's face it - gold's industrial uses are certainly limited so it's only uses - in my view are as a store of wealth, as jewellery . . . oh, and as a CURRENCY. The opinions of western economists or former bond traders are ab-sol-ute-ly irrelevant when the peoples of nations that actually HAVE the wealth still regard gold as the ultimate store of wealth.

[HardenedSoul]

Now everyone's deleveraged

What makes you think so?

Because if they hadn't, equity markets would have blasted through November's lows rather than merely grinding down towards them as they are now. We're entering capitulation phase.

[Naam]

With respect - due or otherwise - many of your posts berating those bullish on gold tend to centre on the belief that - somehow, some way - fiat money will endure despite the systematic devaluation they are going to suffer as a result of the unprecedented levels of money being printed to prop up Western economies and their financial systems, aka "government tinkering". I draw inference from that and I'd imagine most would.

Your allusions to agricultural investment are fairly sound, granted but you often suggest that gold has no intrinsic value and wheel out the "gold is worth nothing on a desert island" argument. Let's face it - gold's industrial uses are certainly limited so it's only uses - in my view are as a store of wealth, as jewellery . . . oh, and as a CURRENCY. The opinions of western economists or former bond traders are ab-sol-ute-ly irrelevant when the peoples of nations that actually HAVE the wealth still regard gold as the ultimate store of wealth.

-i don't berate people who are bullish on gold because they hold gold for the purpose of diversification, as a hedge against inflation and to meet for a certain time the rigours of a worst case scenario.

-i make fun of people who have high hopes that any time from now they can buy a bakery for a single Krügerrand.

-i have never claimed that fiat money is the non-plus-ultra and/or that governments can solve the crisis in which we are.

-what i claimed and still claim is that alternatives exist to prepare for the worst case scenario besides stashing physical gold under the mattress which in most cases will not last a lifetime to cover the expenses for an individual nor a family. however i admit that alternatives are not feasible for a each and every individual person/investor.

-i don't suggest that gold has no intrinsic value. i claim that gold has no intrinsic value. nothing has intrinsic value when there is no demand. if gold possessed intrinsic value there wouldn't be any price fluctuations.

-most of my decisions or thinking are not based on what economists and analysts publish. as a former scientist and engineer i prefer facts, logical thinking and a pragmatic approach to solve a problem. to indulge in fiction a read a book or watch StarTrek.

-if (quoting you) wealthy nations (please name some) would regard gold as the ultimate store of wealth why do the central banks of these wealthy nations hold only a small percentage of their wealth/reserves in foreign fiat currency and foreign fiat debt paper both soon to be worthless? are the central bankers and the policy makers of said wealthy nations all dummies who have to be educated on the intrinsic value of gold?

[Lost in LOS]

With respect - due or otherwise - many of your posts berating those bullish on gold tend to centre on the belief that - somehow, some way - fiat money will endure despite the systematic devaluation they are going to suffer as a result of the unprecedented levels of money being printed to prop up Western economies and their financial systems, aka "government tinkering". I draw inference from that and I'd imagine most would.

Your allusions to agricultural investment are fairly sound, granted but you often suggest that gold has no intrinsic value and wheel out the "gold is worth nothing on a desert island" argument. Let's face it - gold's industrial uses are certainly limited so it's only uses - in my view are as a store of wealth, as jewellery . . . oh, and as a CURRENCY. The opinions of western economists or former bond traders are ab-sol-ute-ly irrelevant when the peoples of nations that actually HAVE the wealth still regard gold as the ultimate store of wealth.

-i don't berate people who are bullish on gold because they hold gold for the purpose of diversification, as a hedge against inflation and to meet for a certain time the rigours of a worst case scenario.

-i make fun of people who have high hopes that any time from now they can buy a bakery for a single Krügerrand.

-i have never claimed that fiat money is the non-plus-ultra and/or that governments can solve the crisis in which we are.

-what i claimed and still claim is that alternatives exist to prepare for the worst case scenario besides stashing physical gold under the mattress which in most cases will not last a lifetime to cover the expenses for an individual nor a family. however i admit that alternatives are not feasible for a each and every individual person/investor.

-i don't suggest that gold has no intrinsic value. i claim that gold has no intrinsic value. nothing has intrinsic value when there is no demand. if gold possessed intrinsic value there wouldn't be any price fluctuations.

-most of my decisions or thinking are not based on what economists and analysts publish. as a former scientist and engineer i prefer facts, logical thinking and a pragmatic approach to solve a problem. to indulge in fiction a read a book or watch StarTrek.

-if (quoting you) wealthy nations (please name some) would regard gold as the ultimate store of wealth why do the central banks of these wealthy nations hold only a small percentage of their wealth/reserves in foreign fiat currency and foreign fiat debt paper both soon to be worthless? are the central bankers and the policy makers of said wealthy nations all dummies who have to be educated on the intrinsic value of gold?

Naam, i value your judgment highly, what alternatives. I have my share of gold but being from the US [which almost doesn't matter since everywhere seems to be in the tank] i want to be prepared for the worst case scenario, which may be coming, but have no idea what to do with my money to keep it safe. i have some in my present home, some gold, some stocks : ( and some fdic insured Cd's. I dont need to make a lot of return but in today's market, keeping the money you presently have, is an upside and not easy.

thanks from the really Lost

[AlexLah]

Have land to grow food, have seeds, water and shelter.

[churchill]

Gold to be a ' Mania Asset "

from the FT - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eff64394-fdd7-11...0077b07658.html

"How high can gold ultimately go? A Dow Jones Industrial Average/gold ratio of 2:1 would be a good sign the bull market in gold is getting well advanced. We saw this in 1932 and 1980. Only nine years ago in 2000, however, this ratio reached over 40:1. "

"Arriving at 2:1 again does not necessarily mean the Dow must decline significantly from here; more likely gold prices surge and the Dow stays range-bound but volatile. Investors are looking for good risk/reward investments. "

[Naam]

Naam, i value your judgment highly, what alternatives. I have my share of gold but being from the US [which almost doesn't matter since everywhere seems to be in the tank] i want to be prepared for the worst case scenario, which may be coming, but have no idea what to do with my money to keep it safe. i have some in my present home, some gold, some stocks : ( and some fdic insured Cd's. I dont need to make a lot of return but in today's market, keeping the money you presently have, is an upside and not easy.

thanks from the really Lost

unfortunately the alternatives are limited. if the worst case scenario should happen (which i neither believe nor do i rule it out) and our cash is worthless (see Germany in the 1920s or Zimbabwe presently) going back to subsistence level is the way to survive. but to grow vegetables, raise pigs, keeping a few goats or cows, having chicken, a fishpond, etc. you need not only land but also the means to defend those assets as well as their products.

[chiang mai]

-i make fun of people who have high hopes that any time from now they can buy a bakery for a single Krügerrand.

-i don't suggest that gold has no intrinsic value. i claim that gold has no intrinsic value. nothing has intrinsic value when there is no demand. if gold possessed intrinsic value there wouldn't be any price fluctuations.

Agreed, bravo!

[Naam]

With respect - due or otherwise - many of your posts berating those bullish on gold tend to centre on the belief that - somehow, some way - fiat money will endure despite the systematic devaluation they are going to suffer as a result of the unprecedented levels of money being printed to prop up Western economies and their financial systems, aka "government tinkering". I draw inference from that and I'd imagine most would.

Your allusions to agricultural investment are fairly sound, granted but you often suggest that gold has no intrinsic value and wheel out the "gold is worth nothing on a desert island" argument. Let's face it - gold's industrial uses are certainly limited so it's only uses - in my view are as a store of wealth, as jewellery . . . oh, and as a CURRENCY. The opinions of western economists or former bond traders are ab-sol-ute-ly irrelevant when the peoples of nations that actually HAVE the wealth still regard gold as the ultimate store of wealth.

-i don't berate people who are bullish on gold because they hold gold for the purpose of diversification, as a hedge against inflation and to meet for a certain time the rigours of a worst case scenario.

-i make fun of people who have high hopes that any time from now they can buy a bakery for a single Krügerrand.

-i have never claimed that fiat money is the non-plus-ultra and/or that governments can solve the crisis in which we are.

-what i claimed and still claim is that alternatives exist to prepare for the worst case scenario besides stashing physical gold under the mattress which in most cases will not last a lifetime to cover the expenses for an individual nor a family. however i admit that alternatives are not feasible for a each and every individual person/investor.

-i don't suggest that gold has no intrinsic value. i claim that gold has no intrinsic value. nothing has intrinsic value when there is no demand. if gold possessed intrinsic value there wouldn't be any price fluctuations.

-most of my decisions or thinking are not based on what economists and analysts publish. as a former scientist and engineer i prefer facts, logical thinking and a pragmatic approach to solve a problem. to indulge in fiction a read a book or watch StarTrek.

-if (quoting you) wealthy nations (please name some) would regard gold as the ultimate store of wealth why do the central banks of these wealthy nations hold only a small percentage of their wealth/reserves in gold and the lion share in foreign fiat currency and foreign fiat debt paper both soon to be worthless? are the central bankers and the policy makers of said wealthy nations all dummies who have to be educated on the intrinsic value of gold?

i realized a big mistake which gave the last part a wrong meaning. it should read of course as added in red above

[HardenedSoul]

-i don't berate people who are bullish on gold because they hold gold for the purpose of diversification, as a hedge against inflation and to meet for a certain time the rigours of a worst case scenario.

-i make fun of people who have high hopes that any time from now they can buy a bakery for a single Krügerrand.

-i have never claimed that fiat money is the non-plus-ultra and/or that governments can solve the crisis in which we are.

-what i claimed and still claim is that alternatives exist to prepare for the worst case scenario besides stashing physical gold under the mattress which in most cases will not last a lifetime to cover the expenses for an individual nor a family. however i admit that alternatives are not feasible for a each and every individual person/investor.

-i don't suggest that gold has no intrinsic value. i claim that gold has no intrinsic value. nothing has intrinsic value when there is no demand. if gold possessed intrinsic value there wouldn't be any price fluctuations.

-most of my decisions or thinking are not based on what economists and analysts publish. as a former scientist and engineer i prefer facts, logical thinking and a pragmatic approach to solve a problem. to indulge in fiction a read a book or watch StarTrek.

-if (quoting you) wealthy nations (please name some) would regard gold as the ultimate store of wealth why do the central banks of these wealthy nations hold only a small percentage of their wealth/reserves in gold and the lion share in foreign fiat currency and foreign fiat debt paper both soon to be worthless? are the central bankers and the policy makers of said wealthy nations all dummies who have to be educated on the intrinsic value of gold?

i realized a big mistake which gave the last part a wrong meaning. it should read of course as added in red above

Obviously, because they, along with many others, thought it was the best game in town. That perception is now changing as recent statements warning of a diminishing appetite for US Treasury and agency debt would suggest. Regardless, the people are the ones doing the buying. All one had to do is look at prices of gold on auction sites a few months back to see the lack of correlation between COMEX spot and physical.

China has the means to make this slowdown a surprisingly temporary phenomenon. Forget the scale of their foreign exchange reserves for the moment and consider a vast population with diddly squat in the way of personal debt and a penchant for western lifestyles. Then consider the admittedly foolhardy measures taken by the central bank to cut rates and literally strongarm the banks into fuelling a domestic consumer boom.

Singapore has already declared its intent to use its foreign reserves to bolster its economy. Russia has already begun diversifying into gold as has Iran. China may be unlikely to dump it all but it doesn't have to.