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Posted
You can easily google it. Thai foreign reserves were 111 billion USD on Dec. 31, 2008.

Ok, so who to trust?

International Monetary Fund?

or

Statement by Bank of Thailand?

Posted
The IMF website you quote says Oct 2008 reserves were 103 billion USD. What's the problem?

"Current Data: In Millions," So is not it 103 million not billion

Posted
Well Chiang Mai, you are a platinum member with over 2500 posts, so you tell me after reading the original post,who has addressed the actual question,who understands basic economics or exchange rates?Just the fact that some people think 10,000 baht is a lot of money goes to show their ability's

So you right, no point in wasting time. I was hoping to get an educated responses with some theory's, instead got some blah blah about blah

member britmaverick explained it already and i second his explanation. you of course are so wrapped in your own incoherent blah-blah

-I have been living in Thailand for past 5 years...

-Can anyone please explain how thai baht remain sooooo strong?

-I understand that Thai baht is measured compared to USD

-I have studied business, and consider myself a fairly smart man, but...

that you don't listen to the only logical explanation which, by the way, was discussed by presenting facts and figures in several other threads :o

Naam! just the fact that you have over 7500 posts shows you have no life but to spend it on the computer! 110 billion is Chinese reserve not Thai-get your facts straight before posting it.

Kuffki, just the fact that you possess a wealth of "NO <deleted> idea" (your quote: "i studied business") :D does not mean you can read and interprete figures the way you want. for your information, the chinese forex reserves have crossed already in october 2008 the USD "one trillion" mark. one trillion = one thousand billions. numeric = 1,000,000,000,000.-

as of dec 31, 2008 thai forex reserves exceeded the value of USD 100 billions.

please send 10 baht per PM attachment as consultant fees which might enable me to get a life (away from my 4 computers) :D

Posted
The IMF website you quote says Oct 2008 reserves were 103 billion USD. What's the problem?

"Current Data: In Millions," So is not it 103 million not billion

At this point you've dropped way behind in the credibility stakes kuffki, probably best to take a lower profile for a while, maybe join the, "what shall I knit next" thread? :o

Posted
The IMF website you quote says Oct 2008 reserves were 103 billion USD. What's the problem?

"Current Data: In Millions," So is not it 103 million not billion

At this point you've dropped way behind in the credibility stakes kuffki, probably best to take a lower profile for a while, maybe join the, "what shall I knit next" thread? :o

it's not gentleman like to turn a knife in the inflicted wound CM. but Kuffki surely deserves it :D

Posted
Can someone post the export income from Thailand by year for the last ten years. I think a lot would become self-evident to most here.

Thai Exports

Lot's of people should spend some time looking at the various reports there, might give them some insight they don't get from a barstool on Suk or a English classroom.

TH

Posted
Well Chiang Mai, you are a platinum member with over 2500 posts, so you tell me after reading the original post,who has addressed the actual question,who understands basic economics or exchange rates?Just the fact that some people think 10,000 baht is a lot of money goes to show their ability's

So you right, no point in wasting time. I was hoping to get an educated responses with some theory's, instead got some blah blah about blah

member britmaverick explained it already and i second his explanation. you of course are so wrapped in your own incoherent blah-blah

-I have been living in Thailand for past 5 years...

-Can anyone please explain how thai baht remain sooooo strong?

-I understand that Thai baht is measured compared to USD

-I have studied business, and consider myself a fairly smart man, but...

that you don't listen to the only logical explanation which, by the way, was discussed by presenting facts and figures in several other threads :o

Naam! just the fact that you have over 7500 posts shows you have no life but to spend it on the computer! 110 billion is Chinese reserve not Thai-get your facts straight before posting it.

Chinese Dollar reserves are about 1.3 TRILLION dollar.

Posted
Can someone post the export income from Thailand by year for the last ten years. I think a lot would become self-evident to most here.

Thai Exports

Lot's of people should spend some time looking at the various reports there, might give them some insight they don't get from a barstool on Suk or a English classroom.

TH

Good post and useful data, I looked for something similar a few days ago but couldn't find anything easily, obviously didn't look hard enough.

Posted

I too have been surprised by the strength of THB. Sitting here, the problems that should cause some weakening, seem so real. However, I think there are a few reasons why THB has failed to fall against most currencies and in particular USD.

Firstly, Thailand, along with several (not all) Asian countries has not suffered a huge deterioration in the health of it's banks. I am sure there is some deterioration in credit quality of the Thai bank loan books, but not to the extent of the US, UK, Icelandic, Eurozone banks. So prima facie, there is no need for a huge devaluation to take place.

Secondly, yes growth rates have slowed, will slow more, may be negative, but in comparison to some major developed economies, the Thai economy is doing OK in relative terms. Also compare to S Korea and Singapore, Thailand is doing ok in relative terms, for example.

Thirdly, the political issues that I personally thought would cause some weakness, did not do so. In hind sight, I think most long term investors in the Thai economy are used to such issues and looked past them.

Fourthly, I do not know, but suspect that there must be some small supporting action by BOT for THB, as and when it might be needed. My assumption is the BOT does not want THB to be weak otherwise hedge funds might smell blood and start to try and force THB much lower.

Fithly, The previous action by BOT to introduce exchange controls, drove away a lot of THB holders who have not come back. Those that remain are in THB for the longer term and short term speculators are scared of exchange controls being tightened again. So THB is not in play.

Summery, whether THB does eventually start to fall depends on how well the economy does against other economies. For sure Thailand's economy will deteriorate, but so will others. Just look at S Korea and Singapore. So if Thailands economy slows, but at a lower rate than others, the currency may well not lose much ground, if any.

Posted
I too have been surprised by the strength of THB. Sitting here, the problems that should cause some weakening, seem so real. However, I think there are a few reasons why THB has failed to fall against most currencies and in particular USD.

Firstly, Thailand, along with several (not all) Asian countries has not suffered a huge deterioration in the health of it's banks. I am sure there is some deterioration in credit quality of the Thai bank loan books, but not to the extent of the US, UK, Icelandic, Eurozone banks. So prima facie, there is no need for a huge devaluation to take place.

Secondly, yes growth rates have slowed, will slow more, may be negative, but in comparison to some major developed economies, the Thai economy is doing OK in relative terms. Also compare to S Korea and Singapore, Thailand is doing ok in relative terms, for example.

Thirdly, the political issues that I personally thought would cause some weakness, did not do so. In hind sight, I think most long term investors in the Thai economy are used to such issues and looked past them.

Fourthly, I do not know, but suspect that there must be some small supporting action by BOT for THB, as and when it might be needed. My assumption is the BOT does not want THB to be weak otherwise hedge funds might smell blood and start to try and force THB much lower.

Fithly, The previous action by BOT to introduce exchange controls, drove away a lot of THB holders who have not come back. Those that remain are in THB for the longer term and short term speculators are scared of exchange controls being tightened again. So THB is not in play.

Summery, whether THB does eventually start to fall depends on how well the economy does against other economies. For sure Thailand's economy will deteriorate, but so will others. Just look at S Korea and Singapore. So if Thailands economy slows, but at a lower rate than others, the currency may well not lose much ground, if any.

Thanks for your intelligent post-thats another theory.

Because the theory about BOT having high reserves and selling off/buying thai baht would keep the value up, but what would happen when they sell off the lot?

Just today BBC ran 30 mins segment on Thailand's economy and did interviews with Finance Minister, PM etc.

According to that show, Thai economy is suffering enormously and things are looking worse by day, some did mention that the forecasted growth was infact optimistic and it is more likely to be at 0 or even in negative. They also mentioned that in the last 3 months 500 000 people lost their jobs.

So is it strong due to economic condition or BOT? Possibly both, but once again what would happen once reserves are empty and economy is still slow if not crashing?

I believe for Thailand to pull through this crisis, they should devalue the currency to attract foreign investment, increase exports and get the tourism.

For Example, UK being the largest investor in Thailand with current exchange rate of 46 baht, i am sure would put off many orders. Current rate is almost half the value it was 5 years ago, same goes for AU$, from 30 baht down to 22 baht. Funny enough most of my clients are from those 2 country's and my orders were still strong as i did not adjust/increase the prices, but now that i have no option but to increase the prices-many customers stop odering and going to buy in China.

Anyhow-Waiving visa fees i doubt would make any difference to economy, Slashing airfares by up to 50%, firstly will attract budget tourism not to mention i do not think is actually a "true " statement.

Just checked out rates on Thai airway site and the rates are higher then before, so i think they put up the prices to now slash it-so in fact no change.

Posted
I too have been surprised by the strength of THB. Sitting here, the problems that should cause some weakening, seem so real. However, I think there are a few reasons why THB has failed to fall against most currencies and in particular USD.

Firstly, Thailand, along with several (not all) Asian countries has not suffered a huge deterioration in the health of it's banks. I am sure there is some deterioration in credit quality of the Thai bank loan books, but not to the extent of the US, UK, Icelandic, Eurozone banks. So prima facie, there is no need for a huge devaluation to take place.

Secondly, yes growth rates have slowed, will slow more, may be negative, but in comparison to some major developed economies, the Thai economy is doing OK in relative terms. Also compare to S Korea and Singapore, Thailand is doing ok in relative terms, for example.

Thirdly, the political issues that I personally thought would cause some weakness, did not do so. In hind sight, I think most long term investors in the Thai economy are used to such issues and looked past them.

Fourthly, I do not know, but suspect that there must be some small supporting action by BOT for THB, as and when it might be needed. My assumption is the BOT does not want THB to be weak otherwise hedge funds might smell blood and start to try and force THB much lower.

Fithly, The previous action by BOT to introduce exchange controls, drove away a lot of THB holders who have not come back. Those that remain are in THB for the longer term and short term speculators are scared of exchange controls being tightened again. So THB is not in play.

Summery, whether THB does eventually start to fall depends on how well the economy does against other economies. For sure Thailand's economy will deteriorate, but so will others. Just look at S Korea and Singapore. So if Thailands economy slows, but at a lower rate than others, the currency may well not lose much ground, if any.

To add a couple of other pieces to the picture: The amounts that BOT are spending on selling USD to keep the Baht high(er) appear to be negligible and the rate of spend appears to suggest they want a managed (slow) devaluation of their currency and that is sensible - as others have pointed out recently it doesn't cost the BOT very much to manipulate a currency such as the Baht. Also, over 50% of Thai exports are to countries in the region thus their export markets are not as "at risk" from the current economic woes of the West.

Posted
Also, over 50% of Thai exports are to countries in the region thus their export markets are not as "at risk" from the current economic woes of the West.

Usually I agree with you, but here you're making a big mistake.

Asian exports are devastated by the downturn in USA/Europe.

Look at the exports data for december...

Japon -35 % !

Thailand -12,5 % (with a freaking -40 % to China !)

Taiwan, South Korea (read here) etc.

It's a massacre. Nothing less.

And the question is easy : do you believe that someone will be able to replace the US, European consumers ? On the short, medium term ?

It's going to be very painful. And obviously, the asian gvts just don't get it.

Posted (edited)
Also, over 50% of Thai exports are to countries in the region thus their export markets are not as "at risk" from the current economic woes of the West.

Usually I agree with you, but here you're making a big mistake.

Asian exports are devastated by the downturn in USA/Europe.

Look at the exports data for december...

Japon -35 % !

Thailand -12,5 % (with a freaking -40 % to China !)

Taiwan, South Korea (read here) etc.

It's a massacre. Nothing less.

And the question is easy : do you believe that someone will be able to replace the US, European consumers ? On the short, medium term ?

It's going to be very painful. And obviously, the asian gvts just don't get it.

Apologies for appearing to mislead, what I should of course said was that regional markets are not at the same level of risk as Western markets appear to be, yet, hence my use of the words, "not as at risk", clumsy English on my part. The implications being that regional trade that is not paid for in USD will likely fare better than trade to say the US or Europe. Mostly what I had hoped to do by making the previous statement was to correct the notion that Thailand's export market is almost exclusively with the West and in particular the USA since this is simply not the case.

Edited by chiang mai
Posted (edited)
The implications being that regional trade that is not paid for in USD will likely fare better than trade to say the US or Europe. Mostly what I had hoped to do by making the previous statement was to correct the notion that Thailand's export market is almost exclusively with the West and in particular the USA since this is simply not the case.

Sure. But :

-there is simply no regional trade not paid in USD. :o USD is used for 81 % of the the receipts. Again check the data :

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/01/08...nvoiced-in-usd/

-the demand from Asean + China + Japan for thai goods.... is driven by the US/european demand for their own exports.

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/01/06...of-destination/

The "decoupling theory" in other words was just a myth.

Edited by cclub75
Posted
The implications being that regional trade that is not paid for in USD will likely fare better than trade to say the US or Europe. Mostly what I had hoped to do by making the previous statement was to correct the notion that Thailand's export market is almost exclusively with the West and in particular the USA since this is simply not the case.

Sure. But :

-there is simply no regional trade not paid in USD. :o USD is used for 81 % of the the receipts. Again check the data :

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/01/08...nvoiced-in-usd/

-the demand from Asean + China + Japan for thai goods.... is driven by the US/european demand for their own exports.

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/01/06...of-destination/

The "decoupling theory" in other words was just a myth.

Thanks for your posts and reference charts

CC-BRILLIANT!

Posted
The implications being that regional trade that is not paid for in USD will likely fare better than trade to say the US or Europe. Mostly what I had hoped to do by making the previous statement was to correct the notion that Thailand's export market is almost exclusively with the West and in particular the USA since this is simply not the case.

Sure. But :

-there is simply no regional trade not paid in USD. :o USD is used for 81 % of the the receipts. Again check the data :

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/01/08...nvoiced-in-usd/

-the demand from Asean + China + Japan for thai goods.... is driven by the US/european demand for their own exports.

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/01/06...of-destination/

The "decoupling theory" in other words was just a myth.

The data says it all really, stuffed it is then!

Posted
The "decoupling theory" in other words was just a myth.

was there ever any theory Ccclub? i don't recall anybody mentioning it specifically. if i'm not completely mistaken the expression was used quite often in 'reverse order' as you did today and Grandmaster Bingy Bungy is doing it since 1½ years, i.e. referring to decoupling without mentioning who, when or in what context that claim was made.

please correct me if i am wrong :o

Posted
It's going to be very painful. And obviously, the asian gvts just don't get it.

what are they supposed to do in your opinion? :o

Posted

"Look at the exports data for december...Thailand -12,5 %..."

Thai exports have declined two months in a row but, for the entire year, there are up almost 16% year-over-year. For a couple years, bingobongo has been posting about the strong baht, and how it would cause the immediate and simultaneous demise of both the Thai real estate market and the exports.

Posted
was there ever any theory Ccclub? i don't recall anybody mentioning it specifically. if i'm not completely mistaken the expression was used quite often in 'reverse order' as you did today and Grandmaster Bingy Bungy is doing it since 1½ years, i.e. referring to decoupling without mentioning who, when or in what context that claim was made.

Have a quick look on Google.

It was fashion to talk about it last year, at the start of the crisis.

The bubble lovers were very excited : one was busting in USA/Europe, okay that was bad, but no problemo, Asia would take the lead, for a never ending growth, and the game would continue for ever and ever. :o

Now we have the proof : it was a dream, a fairy tale for children.

Posted
Well one export, Rice should continue to do fine.

And chicken

And don't forget the latex production. As nobody will be able to afford kids, the demand for condoms must rise....

I will continue to do my best and increase my consumption of beer.

Posted
"Look at the exports data for december...Thailand -12,5 %..."

Thai exports have declined two months in a row but, for the entire year, there are up almost 16% year-over-year.

And... ? :o

What's your... point ?

Ask yourself : what will be the annual growth of thai exports... in 2009 ? That's the only question that matters.

And let's talk about value... What will be the average monthly level of thai exports throughout 2009 ?

To help you, there is a chart, where the "peak exports" is clearly visible.

The past is irrelevant. What is important is now and tomorrow.

Here we have 3 solutions :

-you believe that people living on Jupiter are willing and able to replace US, european and asian consumers : thai exports are saved

-you believe that the global crisis is already over, therefore the US, european and asian consumers are going to consume again, and more than ever : thai exports are saved

-you believe that 2009 is already a lost year as far as global growth is concerned, therefore thai exports will be hit hard.

:D

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