Cbd Condo Prices Indestructable?

[midas]

Just because it hits the bottom at that point it doesn't mean a recovery starts straight away! I thought that was obvious, apologies for the omission.

Am I desperate as Shochu thinks? No, we still have volume. Am I concerned, of course. I'd be stupid not to be. Thankfully I have been through this before so I have a fair chance of survival. The same will not be true for everyone I'm afraid.

You see quicksilva this is where your impartiality as an industry expert becomes questionable

- when you make a flippant and blatantly inaccurate statement such as " Thankfully I have been through

this before so I have a fair chance of survival. " - no you definitely haven't

quicksilva because unless you are very very old, you definitely haven't experienced

anything like the different demographic / socio / economic forces that are happening simultaneously right now.

For example - last time anything as deep as this happened, over 39 percent on the world population ( i.e.

China, Russia and India ) were effectively behind an " iron curtain " or in the case of India

were unable to trade openly with the rest of the world. Because of globalization there is now a continuing

substantial downward pressure on wages everywhere because if it's too expensive

to make something in one country -you can get it manufactured at a fraction in another.

So while condominium ad property prices and values have been going one way, wages around the world

are still going the other ? And now we know it's not because these increased property values

were based on any sensible relationship between salary levels and loans ( i.e. affordability )

but because prices were driven up by people who in some cases

managed to get a loan even when they didn't have a income ?

All these people that are losing their jobs in the USA may never be reemployed and it is

happening in many other countries. These are all your potential future foreign condominium buyers.

quicksilva you have never been through anything anywhere near the same as this because there's never been

so much debt in the world before-we're talking trillions.

When the world went through something like this before people didn't even have credit cards either which compound

the outstanding level of debt even more and there were also not so many nations who where simultaneously

on the verge of being broke themselves. And neither was the world's biggest economy effectively broke last time.

So please have a more genuinely impartial perspective .

I know you like to attach the doom and gloom label to me and it is almost like you use that so you can easily dismiss

anything I contribute wheras I am only raising questions- not like you who implies business will be back to normal

in no time without even any consideration that somehow in some small way things could just be different this time around

compared to the past?

Finally when you say " Just because it hits the bottom at that point it doesn't mean a recovery starts straight away!"

then I ask a further question- if you think that 2009 /2010 will be the bottom ( which I certainly don't agree with )

and that it doesn't mean a recovery starts straight away -why then would you possibly say that it could be an interesting time

to get into the market ? If you purchased in 2009 /2010 you could have zero capital growth and possibly difficultly leasing the property

for a long time ?.That would not be a particularly interesting purchase?

Edited February 6, 2009 by midas

[midas]

midas,

there are more rejections of mortgages happening now to thais from what i hear - not surprising

quicksilva,

when i said a distortion, it was meant as in not giving a clear picture of his work since it is out of context - as i stated above

shochu, it's interesting that you say " more rejections of mortgages happening now to thais " -do you happen to know

how many of these rejections are due to a perception by the lending institutions the future income of the applicant

is insecure?

Is there any evidence that the perceived resistance to buying secondhand condominiums by Thai's

that we hear about continually applies also in the lower priced condo market?

[quiksilva]

@ Midas. No sh1t sherlock, but I do know what its like to operate in a severe economic downturn, and those lessons will serve me well. I suppose I could just stick my head in the sand or cry all day but that's not really my style, I prefer to get out there and find opportunity in adversity, it must seem odd to you eh?

Shochu, my real intention with that graph was to show you what I found. The fact that the data shows the largest bubble in US housing history is there for all to see, it proves irrational exuberance since 2003. The title of his book. This is however is just one aspect, but the long term trend is also undeniable.

Sorry, argue and whine all you want but its a fact. You cant change that.

It must hurt to see that his data supports what I said. Despite what you want to think, the two are not mutually exclusive, as your most esteemed expert's data shows. .

Ahhhh

What's the point in this discussion? If I said the sky was blue you'd disagree.

Virginia Wolfe springs to mind, when asked to come up with a witticism using the word HORTICULTURE, as quick as flash she said:

"You can lead a horticulture but you can not make her think"

Apt.

[midas]

@ Midas. No sh1t sherlock, but I do know what its like to operate in a severe economic downturn, and those lessons will serve me well. I suppose I could just stick my head in the sand or cry all day but that's not really my style, I prefer to get out there and find opportunity in adversity, it must seem odd to you eh?

What's the point in this discussion?

Apt.

qucksilva there you go again -you are really amazing.

As soon as I pose questions to you " outside the box "

for you to respond to as an RICS member and supposed property market expert you go off

on a complete tangent about me sticking my head in the sand

That's wonderful but that's not the subject of this discussion

I am not sticking my head in the sand or crying all day but I am trying to get you to support your

assertion the market will recover and why 2009 and 2010 will be interesting ?

Whereas you have not provided anything significant to support that argument.

Why do you ask what is the point of this discussion? This is your chosen profession and if you

don't have enough interest to continually keep asking questions as to how your working environment

could be subject to big changes after this global crisis - then it is you quicksilva that is sticking your head in the sand.

As it says on BBC World " Never Stop Asking "

[quiksilva]

I am not sticking my head in the sand or crying all day but I am trying to get you to support your

assertion the market will recover and why 2009 and 2010 will be interesting ?

Whereas you have not provided anything significant to support that argument.

Read my posts. I have supported my assertion, but it seems Roubini's (and others of his calibre) view on when the economies will likely recover is not significant now. How convenient.

At least I have an opinion.

Its so easy being negative.

So what about your views?

Come on, you and Shochu and the rest of you doom n gloomers. Stick your neck out there.

When do you think the economy will hit the bottom, and why?

Im all ears.

Why do you ask what is the point of this discussion? This is your chosen profession and if you

don't have enough interest to continually keep asking questions as to how your working environment

could be subject to big changes after this global crisis - then it is you quicksilva that is sticking your head in the sand.

As it says on BBC World " Never Stop Asking "

Midas. You never stop asking the same questions. Oh sure they might be phrased differently but they are the same.

To which I have already given my views, several times. You ask questions, I give views, and you disagree, but never offer your own view.

This has not changed, so why bother carrying on. For what? e-peen? So, no, sorry but I don't have any interest in carrying on with that.

Edited February 6, 2009 by quiksilva

[bkkjames]

For the record...I nominate Quicksilva and Midas for the next edition of Hard Talk.

[pkrv]

Hi midas and shochu. midas in the past we ran into similar disagreement on juristic, and you agreed with me that we were never going to have a meeting of minds because we had different goals.

You know a lot about me because I have been very open on the forum. That was necessary because I was buying off the plan. I know little about you except you rent (which is fine).

But what is your objective here? Is it to try to determine the market bottom? Well if so don't forget to also factor in FX. I mean are you US based for example?

IMO you are never going to agree with quiksilva. You two actually think in totally different ways. I know this because we (you and I) ran into similar difficulties. From my perspective you seem to have an uncanny knack of grasping the wrong end of the stick in what is actually being said. That shochu and you agree is because you think in the same way.

For me I have seen a 50% price change (to my advantage) in my on condominium from GBPTHB= movement alone. Sobering stuff.... if you get it wrong. Is there an element of fear here, if so continue to rent and let it go. Life is far too short for this kind of stuff.

[midas]

Read my posts. I have supported my assertion, but it seems Roubini's (and others of his calibre) view on when the economies will likely recover is not significant now. How convenient.

At least I have an opinion.

Its so easy being negative.

So what about your views?

Come on, you and Shochu and the rest of you doom n gloomers. Stick your neck out there.

When do you think the economy will hit the bottom, and why?

Im all ears.

Midas. You never stop asking the same questions. Oh sure they might be phrased differently but they are the same.

This has not changed, so why bother carrying on. For what? e-peen? So, no, sorry but I don't have any interest in carrying on with that.

quicksilva this is a forum in which we are discussing the topic whether condominium prices in Bangkok

are indestructible ? Why do you label people who are only submitting views and opinions they may have

extracted or gleaned from economists and analysts as being negative ? I could say just the same- it is

so easy for you to be irrationally exuberant because as Shochu said you are in the industry

and it's as if you are putting forwarded your views to protect the interests of your own business

I have no similar interests other than to generate discussion.

You can call me a doom and gloomer if that makes you feel better - I am just posing questions to you?

Show me where Roubini has made any statement remotely similar to saying when exactly the real estate

markets around the world will start recovering?

I do offer my views and and then you immediately say I'm sticking my head in the sand.

To answer to your question I believe that what is happening now is much larger and very different from a normal

recession because this financial crisis happens to coincide also with many other significant geopolitical changes

that will continue to unfold and it is my view property values will continue to go down from current levels

and then remain stagnant for at least 20 years.

[midas]

Hi midas and shochu. midas in the past we ran into similar disagreement on juristic, and you agreed with me that we were never going to have a meeting of minds because we had different goals.

You know a lot about me because I have been very open on the forum. That was necessary because I was buying off the plan. I know little about you except you rent (which is fine).

But what is your objective here? Is it to try to determine the market bottom? Well if so don't forget to also factor in FX. I mean are you US based for example?

IMO you are never going to agree with quiksilva. You two actually think in totally different ways. I know this because we (you and I) ran into similar difficulties. From my perspective you seem to have an uncanny knack of grasping the wrong end of the stick in what is actually being said. That shochu and you agree is because you think in the same way.

For me I have seen a 50% price change (to my advantage) in my on condominium from GBPTHB= movement alone. Sobering stuff.... if you get it wrong. Is there an element of fear here, if so continue to rent and let it go. Life is far too short for this kind of stuff.

My objective is to participate in a discussion on this thread about condominium prices -is there a problem with that?

What is your objective here pkrv and why do you feel the need to defend quicksilva so often ?

So when you say shochu and myself grasped the wrong end of what is being said I think I can quite fairly say the same

about you pkrv although it's not really relevant to the subject of this thread. For example your continued assertion in several of your postings

that you own the freehold interest in your condominium. This showed you don't really have a precise understanding of the

definition of freehold vs. " condominium " or " strata " as we call it in Australia. More importantly the legal limitations

of condominium ownership compared to true freehold ownership.

So before you accuse me of grasping the wrong end of the stick I think you should remember some of your mistakes also.

As for your 50 percent price change to your advantage I offer my warmest congratulations but by your own admission, that is

due to foreign currency movement. That does not reflect one little bit the true strength or otherwise of the condominium market

in Bangkok based on demand and supply ?

[pkrv]

Hi midas and shochu. midas in the past we ran into similar disagreement on juristic, and you agreed with me that we were never going to have a meeting of minds because we had different goals.

You know a lot about me because I have been very open on the forum. That was necessary because I was buying off the plan. I know little about you except you rent (which is fine).

But what is your objective here? Is it to try to determine the market bottom? Well if so don't forget to also factor in FX. I mean are you US based for example?

IMO you are never going to agree with quiksilva. You two actually think in totally different ways. I know this because we (you and I) ran into similar difficulties. From my perspective you seem to have an uncanny knack of grasping the wrong end of the stick in what is actually being said. That shochu and you agree is because you think in the same way.

For me I have seen a 50% price change (to my advantage) in my on condominium from GBPTHB= movement alone. Sobering stuff.... if you get it wrong. Is there an element of fear here, if so continue to rent and let it go. Life is far too short for this kind of stuff.

My objective is to participate in a discussion on this thread about condominium prices -is there a problem with that?

What is your objective here pkrv and why do you feel the need to defend quicksilva so often ?

So when you say shochu and myself grasped the wrong end of what is being said I think I can quite fairly say the same

about you pkrv although it's not really relevant to the subject of this thread. For example your continued assertion in several of your postings

that you own the freehold interest in your condominium. This showed you don't really have a precise understanding of the

definition of freehold vs. " condominium " or " strata " as we call it in Australia. More importantly the legal limitations

of condominium ownership compared to true freehold ownership.

So before you accuse me of grasping the wrong end of the stick I think you should remember some of your mistakes also.

As for your 50 percent price change to your advantage I offer my warmest congratulations but by your own admission, that is

due to foreign currency movement. That does not reflect one little bit the true strength or otherwise of the condominium market

in Bangkok based on demand and supply ?

Hi midas - as I have said in the past we do discuss these issues and look that is good stuff. But we have trouble communicating with each other, to be honest the more we type the more confused things seem to become. I can try this:

My objectives are quite simple. I have a 20m THB investment in one of the cheapest units at The Park which is in the CBD of Bangkok. Is it not rational for me to keep an eye on it? It would cost me some 400,000 GBP to buy today; this is now big stuff for me. Additionally I got a lot of extremely valuable help support and advice over the years, from many posters. One of them happened to be quiksilva. I now contribute my practical knowledge and experience back to the board, I sort of feel obliged to repay.

Why do I defend quiksilva - well if quiksilva were to leave the board in frustration IMO thaivisa would be losing one of its most valuable contributors. I am sorry I cannot say the same of you, but that is my perspective and I guess it is true the other way around.

I'm not sure how you cannot grasp that I understand the condominium act, my own formally binding contract with The Park, the measures used for enforcement and its freehold nature, and that this is actually all acceptable to me.

To demonstrate how difficult it is to communicate with you, the price rise is more like 115% increase in value, the hint was 50% came from FX movement alone. And BTW there was a warning attached to that statement that things can go very wrong in this area alone.

I promise you, you are not grasping quiksilva at all. He has tried to help you but encounters the same difficulties as myself in communication. This is just life.

IMO it would help if we knew a bit about you and your objectives. But even your profile is a little thin on the ground in terms of information.

[midas]

Hi midas - as I have said in the past we do discuss these issues and look that is good stuff. But we have trouble communicating with each other, to be honest the more we type the more confused things seem to become. I can try this:

My objectives are quite simple. I have a 20m THB investment in one of the cheapest units at The Park which is in the CBD of Bangkok. Is it not rational for me to keep an eye on it? It would cost me some 400,000 GBP to buy today; this is now big stuff for me. Additionally I got a lot of extremely valuable help support and advice over the years, from many posters. One of them happened to be quiksilva. I now contribute my practical knowledge and experience back to the board, I sort of feel obliged to repay.

Why do I defend quiksilva - well if quiksilva were to leave the board in frustration IMO thaivisa would be losing one of its most valuable contributors. I am sorry I cannot say the same of you, but that is my perspective and I guess it is true the other way around.

I'm not sure how you cannot grasp that I understand the condominium act, my own formally binding contract with The Park, the measures used for enforcement and its freehold nature, and that this is actually all acceptable to me.

To demonstrate how difficult it is to communicate with you, the price rise is more like 115% increase in value, the hint was 50% came from FX movement alone. And BTW there was a warning attached to that statement that things can go very wrong in this area alone.

I promise you, you are not grasping quiksilva at all. He has tried to help you but encounters the same difficulties as myself in communication. This is just life.

IMO it would help if we knew a bit about you and your objectives. But even your profile is a little thin on the ground in terms of information.

Hi pkrv

You are quite a strange contributor

I say this because when we first began communicating on the other thread concerning the inadequacies

of the Condominium Act in Thailand, even then you seem preoccupied about knowing personal details

about myself. Why do you feel the need to know this information?

No other contributor on TV has ever asked me these kinds of questions and I see

absolutely no relevance to what is being communicating in a particular posting?

You also seem to infer that because I use the rental income from the real estate I own in Sydney

to pay my property rents in Thailand that I am somehow less entitled to contribute

my views in this kind of forum ? This is at least the impression I get because of your

continued reference to me only being a tenant in Thailand. Why is that relevant ?

And do all the contributors on TV have to first explain their objective before submitting a posting?

I'm very sorry if I don't quite fit into your expectation or definition of who should be entitled

to contribute in this thread. Do I need to obtain permission from somebody before contributing here?

Give me a break.

Yes it is rather curious that I have problems understanding what you and quicksilva

are getting at when I don't seem to have the same problems with anyone else? I can assure you

I'm not going to lose any sleep at all over the fact that you don't like my postings

You may very well have a great understanding of the condominium act in Thailand but once again

you are showing either your inability to properly comprehend or your poor memory because

in our previous discussions I have said that you cannot possibly understand the inadequacies

of the Thai Act without without properly comparing it to the Strata Titles Act in Australia ( the first country

to have this system ).

I just had a chuckle because I remember your feeble attempt to find some inadequacies in the

Strata Titles Act when you got the wrong end of the stick again. I remember the quote

you eagerly sent back to me to try to point out what you thought was a weakness

in the Strata Titles Act - but this only related to a failure between the different states in Australia

to agree on a common Strata Act-it did not detract from the strength of the Australian Act one bit

- and people who buy in Thailand ( especially Europeans with no previous experience of multi -

ownership) have no idea of the problems they could be facing down the track

As for quiksilva -I think he needs all the pom-pom bearing supporters that he can get

so keep up the good work

Edited February 6, 2009 by midas

[pkrv]

Hi midas - I understand the need for privacy on the board, but unfortunatly what has been happening recently is someone says 'now is a bad time to buy in Thailand' and another 'now is a good time to buy in Thailand' - you know what they can both be 100% correct. Confusion all round!

For me being UK based I would say buying now in Thailand is not a good idea, we have seen a 50% drop in the value of our currency. However if US based someone might consider the USD at an artifical high and may make a decision based on that - I am afraid I know little of the AUD and its performance against the THB. The world is a big place.

Additionally take someone like donx who is quite open on this board. He has a much broader view of property than I do because he has a Thai partner. We are farang/farang we operate under more limited options than he does. BTW if I had a Thai income I would be considering the UK.

And I haven't even begun to touch the surface on this subject.

You have sort of opened up a little and explained you have an AUD incomestream and you are currently renting in Thailand. That's good stuff. It has a considerable bearing on your decisions for the future - you make them based on what you know, other posters, posts could be completly irrelevent to you, even though they may make sense.

There is no fight here midas, just confusion all round.

Edited February 6, 2009 by pkrv

[midas]

Hi midas - I understand the need for privacy on the board, but unfortunatly what has been happening recently is someone says 'now is a bad time to buy in Thailand' and another 'now is a good time to buy in Thailand' - you know what they can both be 100% correct. Confusion all round!

For me being UK based I would say buying now in Thailand is not a good idea, we have seen a 50% drop in the value of our currency. However if US based someone might consider the USD at an artifical high and may make a decision based on that - I am afraid I know little of the AUD and its performance against the THB. The world is a big place.

Additionally take someone like donx who is quite open on this board. He has a much broader view of property than I do because he has a Thai partner. We are farang/farang we operate under more limited options than he does. BTW if I had a Thai income I would be considering the UK.

And I haven't even begun to touch the surface on this subject.

You have sort of opened up a little and explained you have an AUD incomestream and you are currently renting in Thailand. That's good stuff. It has a considerable bearing on your decisions for the future - you make them based on what you know, other posters, posts could be completly irrelevent to you, even though they may make sense.

There is no fight here midas, just confusion all round.

Hi pkrv

I don't have an opinion on currency movements and how these will provide buying opportunities

-temporarily or otherwise.

I am more interested in macroeconomic trends and geopolitical events

and how these can have an unimaginable and sudden impact on property markets.

I know from his responses quicksilva doesn't show the slightest interest in these subjects

and that's disappointing for a property professional like him because real estate markets anywhere don't exist

in a vacuum. Today the property market is subject to all kindsof other strains and stresses

that didn't seem to exist 20 to 30 years ago. Look at the recent events

in Thailand. A Thai friend told me that a well known astrologer has made

his prediction for the New Year and that the ongoing conflict between

the redshirts and the yellow shirts in Thailand will go on for another 10 years.

After that there will be peace. But if you believe that what happens in between ?

quicksilva simply says the market will recover because it always has in the past.

In my view that is a very shallow and brain numbing response and shows no interest

in even being prepared consider things like the gradual erosion of incomes compared to

property values.

You have to keep your eye on many ball's today simultaneously because

the world is incredibly restless.

.

It seems you forgot completely about the very subject of our previous discussions in which

I explained all about why I would never own any asset in a country in which I could any ever be

on a visa. At least I understand the property laws in Australia and in event I had to go to court

on a property matter , I know I would receive fair treatment. From personal experience

accompanying a friend from Switzerland regarding a property dispute

- farangs most certainly don't get their treatment in this country.

The Australian dollar exchange rate is shocking but fortunately the income stream

leaves me with plenty of room for that and the location of my properties is excellent.

And I'm more interested in trends - and how these will affect not just the Thai market

but everywhere.

[pkrv]

Hi midas - I understand the need for privacy on the board, but unfortunatly what has been happening recently is someone says 'now is a bad time to buy in Thailand' and another 'now is a good time to buy in Thailand' - you know what they can both be 100% correct. Confusion all round!

For me being UK based I would say buying now in Thailand is not a good idea, we have seen a 50% drop in the value of our currency. However if US based someone might consider the USD at an artifical high and may make a decision based on that - I am afraid I know little of the AUD and its performance against the THB. The world is a big place.

Additionally take someone like donx who is quite open on this board. He has a much broader view of property than I do because he has a Thai partner. We are farang/farang we operate under more limited options than he does. BTW if I had a Thai income I would be considering the UK.

And I haven't even begun to touch the surface on this subject.

You have sort of opened up a little and explained you have an AUD incomestream and you are currently renting in Thailand. That's good stuff. It has a considerable bearing on your decisions for the future - you make them based on what you know, other posters, posts could be completly irrelevent to you, even though they may make sense.

There is no fight here midas, just confusion all round.

Hi pkrv

I don't have an opinion on currency movements and how these will provide buying opportunities

-temporarily or otherwise.

I am more interested in macroeconomic trends and geopolitical events

and how these can have an unimaginable and sudden impact on property markets.

I know from his responses quicksilva doesn't show the slightest interest in these subjects

and that's disappointing for a property professional like him because real estate markets anywhere don't exist

in a vacuum. Today the property market is subject to all kindsof other strains and stresses

that didn't seem to exist 20 to 30 years ago. Look at the recent events

in Thailand. A Thai friend told me that a well known astrologer has made

his prediction for the New Year and that the ongoing conflict between

the redshirts and the yellow shirts in Thailand will go on for another 10 years.

After that there will be peace. But if you believe that what happens in between ?

quicksilva simply says the market will recover because it always has in the past.

In my view that is a very shallow and brain numbing response and shows no interest

in even being prepared consider things like the gradual erosion of incomes compared to

property values.

You have to keep your eye on many ball's today simultaneously because

the world is incredibly restless.

.

It seems you forgot completely about the very subject of our previous discussions in which

I explained all about why I would never own any asset in a country in which I could any ever be

on a visa. At least I understand the property laws in Australia and in event I had to go to court

on a property matter , I know I would receive fair treatment. From personal experience

accompanying a friend from Switzerland regarding a property dispute

- farangs most certainly don't get their treatment in this country.

The Australian dollar exchange rate is shocking but fortunately the income stream

leaves me with plenty of room for that and the location of my properties is excellent.

And I'm more interested in trends - and how these will affect not just the Thai market

but everywhere.

Hi - midas - we seem to be back on a slightly more even keel - this is good stuff.

I would give some thought to exchange rates if I were you. They have longterm consequences. My Thai assets have gone through the roof in stirling terms. I quite liked chiang mai''s post on the subject:

I think 'chiang mai' said it more softly than I did

That hits the nail on the head. Someone told me several months ago that the most important thing to do was to decide on which is my home currency and most Brits will probably find that very hard to do. The home currency is the one you spend every day, not the one you invest in or think is stronger or better - I think most British expats have probable devised a strategy for Sterling and not for Baht and that has cost them.

Obviously you are AUD but IMO the same applies.

I had not forgotten the past posts midas but probably dismissed them. Not out of rudeness but they have little bearing on my UK/Thailand perspective. Yes I did question the Aussie condo laws but out of casual interest only. They have no meaning or relevence for me, we ran into confusion I simply backed off. That was it

However this is a Bangkok CBD thread - I am interested, but even here saying 115% returns in a couple of years flat is utterly meaningless to an Aussie perspective. But I now have Thai assets (at an excelent exchange rate) - that does have meaning. I am actually trying to help here but we are just struggling abit

[ray08]

When comparing Bangkok condo prices ,i dont see the point about people saying what a great Forex profit they made on the property ,better to stick to basics and leave it in thai baht , the forex can go either way and wild swings can happen very fast ,

But as people like to think about forex profits ,mainly GBP and AUD , remember this ,chances are the condo will be sold at a loss as the market is dead , no sales , the buyer in most cases would be a foreigner as they don,t mind second hand ,as opposed to thai,s

How many Pommies or Aussies would be lining up to change to Thai Baht at these rates,?

Even Khun Pkrv states"BTW if I had a Thai income I would be considering the UK" so even part local owners would not buy here

there are of course other currencies ,but just to sell you have to eliminate ,Thai , English ,Aussies , even Americans prefer the rate at around thb 40 , so eliminate these as well ,Good luck in finding buyers,

Less buyers more down pressure on prices

Edited February 6, 2009 by ray08

[pkrv]

When comparing Bangkok condo prices ,i dont see the point about people saying what a great Forex profit they made on the property ,better to stick to basics and leave it in thai baht , the forex can go either way and wild swings can happen very fast ,

But as people like to think about forex profits ,mainly GBP and AUD , remember this ,chances are the condo will be sold at a loss as the market is dead , no sales , the buyer in most cases would be a foreigner as they don,t mind second hand ,as opposed to thai,s

How many Pommies or Aussies would be lining up to change to Thai Baht at these rates,?

Even Khun Pkrv states"BTW if I had a Thai income I would be considering the UK" so even part local owners would not buy here

there are of course other currencies ,but just to sell you have to eliminate ,Thai , English ,Aussies , even Americans prefer the rate at around thb 40 , so eliminate these as well ,Good luck in finding buyers,

Less buyers more down pressure on prices

ray08 I also implied that if US based I would be considering buying in Thailand as the USD is IMO at an artifical high, and things may not look so good in the future - but that is just an opinion. The point is that if you are farang you HAVE to bring the cash in for a condo purchase - that can hurt. A 25% fall in my unit would mean a 25% profit at this time. BUT this is a home for me so not relevent.

IMO you are incorrect in dismissing FX from the equation, it sort of costs money ];-)

[pkrv]

A link on AUDTHB=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AUDTHB=X

Similar predicament to GBPTHB=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GBPTHB=X

And USDTHB= (incorrect RIC, should be THB=)

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDTHB=X

Edited February 6, 2009 by pkrv

[midas]

]

ray08 I also implied that if US based I would be considering buying in Thailand as the USD is IMO at an artifical high, and things may not look so good in the future - but that is just an opinion. The point is that if you are farang you HAVE to bring the cash in for a condo purchase - that can hurt. A 25% fall in my unit would mean a 25% profit at this time. BUT this is a home for me so not relevent.

IMO you are incorrect in dismissing FX from the equation, it sort of costs money ];-)

pkrv - it is a bit academic anyway surely because the perceived gain you have

only through forex may not last for long based on these trends......sell now if you

want to make your profit

Rising debt raises crisis fears, Puea Thai says

Bangkok Post 2/02/2009

The opposition Puea Thai party is demanding that the government reveal the country's real economic health, saying worsening debt could lead to a recurrence of the 1997 financial crisis.

Khanawat Wasinsangvorn, Puea Thai deputy leader, yesterday said Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva should make public the economic fundamentals, as the country now has just 52 billion baht in reserves.

The Finance Ministry's plan to seek 270 billion baht in credit from domestic and overseas lenders had raised concerns that the government was about to drive the country deeper into debt, similar to what happened in 1997, Mr Khanawat said.

[midas]

Hi pkrv

Yesterday you said when I exchange posts with you and quicksilva " we have trouble communicating with each other, to be honest the more we type the more confused things seem to become. "

And then you defended quicksilva's replies to me by saying " He has tried to help you but encounters the same difficulties as myself in communication ".

Well to show you an example of real confusion can you understand which is these " views " are correct :-

" Thailand's property market cannot be expected to recover from the present slump until 2011, according to Aliwassa Pathnadabutr,

managing director of international property agency CB Richard Ellis (Thailand).

She said the slump began in the final quarter of this year with demand in Thailand's property market plummeting under

the shadow of the global economic crisis.

"When we saw demand in the property market dropping, we suggested to our customers that they wait and see

As a result our customers suspended investments of between Bt4 billion and Bt5 billion in the last quarter of this year," Aliwassa said last week.

The company's research shows that transactions have fallen in all property segments in the current quarter, some of them

significantly, others slightly. This is a sign that the property market may fall by 10 to 20 per cent next year, the steepest

tumฌble since the financial crisis in 1997, she said. ( The Nation)

And yet the same company, CB Richard Ellis, was saying exactly 2 months ago :

" Thailand's property market is well insulated from the global financial crisis as it is far less dependent on debt than most property markets,

said real estate firm CB Richard Ellis Thailand. "

AND THIS ONE IS CLASSIC :-

Aliwassa also said " We believe that this recovery cycle will be faster than that after the 1997 financial crisis because global leaders such as the US, UK, Europe, Japan and China have launched measures to solve the problem. Meanwhile, Thailand’s property developers and finance firms are healthier, financially, than they were in 1997,” she said. "

Edited February 7, 2009 by midas

[palm]

Maybe someone can post a list of high quality CBD condo developments that are now available for under say 75k baht sqm? or, how about under 100k baht sq/m?

I'm always keen on snapping up property bargains, wherever they may be in the world.

[midas]

Maybe someone can post a list of high quality CBD condo developments that are now available for under say 75k baht sqm? or, how about under 100k baht sq/m?

I'm always keen on snapping up property bargains, wherever they may be in the world.

You can buy this in Sydney for 20 million !

[Pakboong]

A person would have to be a complete idiot to not realize that shop houses in Pattaya are extremely overbuilt . Yet, there are hundreds being built as I type. What drives this crazy train. I have heard numbers in the 15,000 vacant range. It doesn't matter what you know about real estate, you only have to have your eyes open not to notice this catastrophe.

[midas]

A person would have to be a complete idiot to not realize that shop houses in Pattaya are extremely overbuilt . Yet, there are hundreds being built as I type. What drives this crazy train. I have heard numbers in the 15,000 vacant range. It doesn't matter what you know about real estate, you only have to have your eyes open not to notice this catastrophe.

Hey Pakboong you are right ! I was there 2 weeks ago and I noticed that........they

are bloody everywhere and all vacant and there doesnt seem to be any urgency

to find occupants ? I was wondering where has all that money come from ?

Thais dont seem to have any worries about the time value of money-

just build a dozen shop houses and sit back and wait. And some of them

are in terrible locations

Edited February 7, 2009 by midas

[shochu]

quiksilva,

in ur own words - the biggest bubble - so it will take a long time!

PLEASE show me where i have flip flopped. u seem so ready to accuse me but where is the evidence. anyone can google shiller and check his wicki site which states the work he is most famous for regarding property. WHY don't u respond to my queries?? INSTEAD of making false accusations.

u r at every opportunity trying to hype the market. and in answer to how a simple statement can uptick the market - well all it takes is one report, or one news item like an investor buying in to make a killing in a market. i know - i have seen it, have experienced it. the fact that u don;t know this or would respond in such a manner shows ur naivette and inexpereince.

again a bit of info about me - i have to deal with guys like u often, and know similar people in most of the major real estate firms. sorry have enver worked with ur firm - as they are not really a big player as far as i am concerend - u see - i work on the owners behalf - and regularly have to dismiss ur industry repeorts with my own reports. i often get angry questions from guys like u, and reply that my engineers have made them and ask them what they want to contest - silence with anger on their faces. i generally get a much angrier phone call later in the day. so what am i trying to say - well - u guys make reports like any salemen.

i know my stuff in this industry better than u do - well speculating hear - but feel comfortable with it. perhaps u know thai commercial better than i do - but i know buildings and finance, and how the market works.

so save me the bullshit - U KNOW EXACTLY WHAT U WERE TRYING TO DO - and it was LAME! A SALEMAN IS ALWAYS A SALEMAN!! lame....

PKRV,

TIME TO PUT AWAY THE POM POMS and i said the uniform was for ur better half - NOT U!

midas,

the mortgage rejections were based on discussions with sales people.

in regards to second hand - do not know as this was an area i was planning to research in the future.

[Crash999]

Maybe someone can post a list of high quality CBD condo developments that are now available for under say 75k baht sqm? or, how about under 100k baht sq/m?

I'm always keen on snapping up property bargains, wherever they may be in the world.

You can buy this in Sydney for 20 million !

What building is that rendering from? I haven't looked into the Australian property market but if there are truly high-end buildings in the CBD available for 75k-100k then it'd definitely be worth looking into.

[hhgz]

I think that you are confusing the picture of an Australian condo, and condos available in BKK CBD.

[hhgz]

"... a well known astrologer has made his prediction for the New Year and that the ongoing conflict between the redshirts and the yellow shirts in Thailand will go on for another 10 years..."

Please don't tell us that you believe in astrologers, well known or not. I remember when "well known astrologer" Mor Crit predicted that a Thai B actress was pregnant, and he was forced by her mom to apologize.

[midas]

"... a well known astrologer has made his prediction for the New Year and that the ongoing conflict between the redshirts and the yellow shirts in Thailand will go on for another 10 years..."

Please don't tell us that you believe in astrologers, well known or not. I remember when "well known astrologer" Mor Crit predicted that a Thai B actress was pregnant, and he was forced by her mom to apologize.

I dont usually But in this case as there doesnt seem to be any resolution in sight

between rural Isaan and the City ...............it sounded plausible at least

[Gary A]

I believe that astrologers know as much as the experts as to what is going to happen. It would be foolish to listen to anyone at this point.

[pkrv]

Well I did ask for it

midas - its not the profit being made that actually counts here - this is my home in Bangkok – it's the amount of home currency I have to transfer to achieve the same thing that matters. A 50% drop in sterling means I have to transfer 50% more to achieve the same end. That is the point. If I wanted to make profit I would take it NOW! But note I have no interest in doing so.

Maybe someone can post a list of high quality CBD condo developments that are now available for under say 75k baht sqm? or, how about under 100k baht sq/m?

I'm always keen on snapping up property bargains, wherever they may be in the world.

palm - You could try

midas- 20 million what? grains of dust or tons of platinum

Guys - last time I looked Pattaya was not in the CBD let alone Bangkok :jerk:

shocku - actually I am not wearing pom poms but noticed an awful lot of headless chicken outfits on.

Gary A and hhgz - possibly the most rational posts so far! But in a storm warning IMO look out for all the signs - for USD holders the picture is different to AUD and GBP holders. And this I am afraid is a fact of life Thai property up or down can and has for me been irrelevant. (though I do seem to have a 50-65% increase in THB value, please feel free to check independently yourselves)

Edited February 7, 2009 by pkrv