Financial Crisis

[flying]

  On 8/24/2010 at 5:09 AM, midas said:

I couldn't see why USA would need to worry about hyper-inflation

How Hyperinflation Will Happen

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/08/how-hyperinflation-will-happen.html

Thanks

Interesting article.....

Also in the comments section someone linked to this...

Dying of Money By Jens Parson ...Written in 1974 & 372 pages.

That link is free but I saw it on Amazon too

( Very Expensive Book )& it had some good reviews.

http://www.amazon.com/Dying-Money-Lessons-American-Inflations/dp/0914688014

[AnnyLing]

How Hyperinflation Will Happen

http://gonzalolira.b...ill-happen.html

Right now, I’m guessing that sensible people who’ve read this far are dismissing me as being full of shit—or at least victim of my own imagination.

*****

Gonzalo can read my mind ?

[AnnyLing]

A $300,000 house falls to $60,000 or less, or better yet, 50 ounces of silver—because in a hyperinflationist episode, a house is worthless, whereas 50 bits of silver can actually buy you stuff you might need.

*****

Where is Naam ?

[midas]

  On 8/24/2010 at 7:55 AM, AnnyLing said:

A $300,000 house falls to $60,000 or less, or better yet, 50 ounces of silver—because in a hyperinflationist episode, a house is worthless, whereas 50 bits of silver can actually buy you stuff you might need.

*****

According to the Michigan Association of Realtors and Detroit Board of Realtors (data here), the average sales price of a Detroit home fell to $11,533 in April (Year-to-Date), a -43.8% decline from the $20,514 average home price during the same period last year (see chart above). 2009 year-to-date unit sales increased by 23.1% to 4,139 homes, compared to 3,360 Detroit homes sold last year over the same period. From the $97,850 peak Detroit home price in 2003, prices have fallen by an amazing 88%

[AnnyLing]

the average sales price of a Detroit home fell to $11,533 in April (Year-to-Date), a -43.8% decline from the $20,514 average home price during the same period last year

*****

Home or doghouse ?

[badge]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/existing-home-sales-plunge-272-in-july-2010-08-24-101400

Aug. 24, 2010, 10:14 a.m. EDT · Recommend (6) · Post:

Existing-home sales plunge 27.2%

Inventory of unsold homes jumps to 11-year high

By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The sale of existing U.S. homes sank 27.2% in July -- the biggest one-month drop ever -- largely because of the phase-out of a federal tax credit, according to an industry trade group.

The National Association of Realtors said existing-home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million in July from 5.26 million the month before. Sales of single-family homes fell to the lowest rate in 15 years.

A year earlier, existing home sales totaled 5.14 million in July.

[flying]

Granted housing is my line of work but.. I cannot help but laugh every time they act all surprised by these numbers.

Do they not have eyes? Do they not have ears? Housing has gone one way for a long long time now. With no real showing of anything new. Did they actually believe the hype with the tax break etc?

Whats next? Will they next say unemployment is rising when the market plunges?

[midas]

  On 8/24/2010 at 5:14 PM, flying said:

Granted housing is my line of work but.. I cannot help but laugh every time they act all surprised by these numbers.

Do they not have eyes? Do they not have ears? Housing has gone one way for a long long time now. With no real showing of anything new. Did they actually believe the hype with the tax break etc?

Whats next? Will they next say unemployment is rising when the market plunges?

Watching Bloomberg last night as this was being covered and the

lady interviewer turned to the guest with such a serious voice

and asked " do you think the recovery is stalling "?

No lady but just watch for the red shoots !

[flying]

  On 8/25/2010 at 12:45 AM, midas said:

Watching Bloomberg last night as this was being covered and the

lady interviewer turned to the guest with such a serious voice

and asked " do you think the recovery is stalling "?

No lady but just watch for the red shoots !

I think the guest should have been honest

He should have told her the jig is up & the dilithium crystals that have been powering the

hologram of the supposed recovery are dangerously low.

[Naam]

  On 8/24/2010 at 7:55 AM, AnnyLing said:

A $300,000 house falls to $60,000 or less, or better yet, 50 ounces of silver—because in a hyperinflationist episode, a house is worthless, whereas 50 bits of silver can actually buy you stuff you might need.

*****

Where is Naam ?

how can i help you Anny?

[midas]

In a Nutshell: Our economy is really an insane asylum run by lunatics.

The fix is amazingly simple: In a nutshell our elected officials must wake up to the fact that fudging unemployment numbers with bogus Birth Death Models, not counting U6ers or hiring temporary enumerators doesn’t inject money into the economy through consumer spending. Lying about GDP or keeping off balance sheet debt doesn’t fix anything either. And relying on the lunes that created the mess to fix the mess is even more insane. :clap2:

They need to fire those who created the mess. Pigs will fly before Larry Summers, Ben Bernanke, or Turbo Tax Cheating Timmy Geithner fix anything and everything they broke or failed to regulate.

http://financialsense.com/contributors/d-sherman-okst/the-economic-insane-asylum

[flying]

  On 8/26/2010 at 4:36 AM, midas said:

In a Nutshell: Our economy is really an insane asylum run by lunatics.

The fix is amazingly simple: In a nutshell our elected officials must wake up to the fact that fudging unemployment numbers with bogus Birth Death Models, not counting U6ers or hiring temporary enumerators doesn’t inject money into the economy through consumer spending.

That is pretty much it in a nutshell isn't it?

They did actually believe that if they could just get all the addicts back on the juice then the illusion could continue unhampered by reality.

In hindsight I guess many do wish the lights never went on.

[flying]

You have to wonder when Mr. Positive +++ Says RUN :lol:

http://www.metatube.com/en/videos/37911/An-Important-Note-Of-Caution-By-Tony-Robbins/

Then this from Rupert ( Who I do not follow )

http://vimeo.com/14448065

But I have noticed many cycle types have said Sept will be very......interesting

[midas]

  On 8/26/2010 at 8:10 PM, flying said:

Then this from Rupert ( Who I do not follow )

http://vimeo.com/14448065

But I have noticed many cycle types have said Sept will be very......interesting

Banks witholding 60% of money from sales ?????

What the hel_l is going on with that and amazing not a mention in MSM

[Abrak]

  On 8/27/2010 at 4:56 AM, midas said:

Banks witholding 60% of money from sales ?????

What the hel_l is going on with that and amazing not a mention in MSM

Yes I know, sounds pretty close to anarchy over there. Restaurants refusing payment by credit card, stocking up with 3 months food. Troops being brought back from Iraq presumably so they are in place to maintain domestic order. I hope people have got a back up generator. 'I have hot water' is going to be a great chat up line there soon.

[flying]

  On 8/27/2010 at 5:42 AM, Abrak said:

Yes I know, sounds pretty close to anarchy over there. Restaurants refusing payment by credit card, stocking up with 3 months food. Troops being brought back from Iraq presumably so they are in place to maintain domestic order. I hope people have got a back up generator. 'I have hot water' is going to be a great chat up line there soon.

Back up generators will not run long without fuel Best go solar on the shower

[midas]

  On 8/27/2010 at 5:42 AM, Abrak said:

  On 8/27/2010 at 4:56 AM, midas said:

Banks witholding 60% of money from sales ?????

What the hel_l is going on with that and amazing not a mention in MSM

Yes I know, sounds pretty close to anarchy over there. Restaurants refusing payment by credit card, stocking up with 3 months food. Troops being brought back from Iraq presumably so they are in place to maintain domestic order. I hope people have got a back up generator. 'I have hot water' is going to be a great chat up line there soon.

Ok that would help explain this i read

"Gun sales surged to a new high before President Barack Obama took office in January 2009. One year later, gun sales surpassed the record set in 2008, despite the recession's strong grip."

[flying]

  On 8/27/2010 at 7:16 AM, midas said:

Ok that would help explain this i read

"Gun sales surged to a new high before President Barack Obama took office in January 2009. One year later, gun sales surpassed the record set in 2008, despite the recession's strong grip."

Anyone who saw first hand actual videos

( private not MSN BS )of the Katrina aftermath would know.

That was a tiny example of what can quickly happen here...imagine that on a much larger scale.

Heck imagine if it just involved one or two of the larger states.

DO not forget that the same military industrial complex they use to invade other countries can quickly be turned onto the streets here & martial law declared.Those folks do not represent the deepest thinkers

[BlackJack]

  On 8/27/2010 at 7:16 AM, midas said:

  On 8/27/2010 at 5:42 AM, Abrak said:

  On 8/27/2010 at 4:56 AM, midas said:

Banks witholding 60% of money from sales ?????

What the hel_l is going on with that and amazing not a mention in MSM

Yes I know, sounds pretty close to anarchy over there. Restaurants refusing payment by credit card, stocking up with 3 months food. Troops being brought back from Iraq presumably so they are in place to maintain domestic order. I hope people have got a back up generator. 'I have hot water' is going to be a great chat up line there soon.

Ok that would help explain this i read

"Gun sales surged to a new high before President Barack Obama took office in January 2009. One year later, gun sales surpassed the record set in 2008, despite the recession's strong grip."

there should be a bounty on bankers

once cleared out then start the machine again and hope that all future bankers remember history

lets start with

A

then B

then G

[midas]

  On 8/27/2010 at 7:22 AM, flying said:

  On 8/27/2010 at 7:16 AM, midas said:

Ok that would help explain this i read

"Gun sales surged to a new high before President Barack Obama took office in January 2009. One year later, gun sales surpassed the record set in 2008, despite the recession's strong grip."

Anyone who saw first hand actual videos

( private not MSN BS )of the Katrina aftermath would know.

That was a tiny example of what can quickly happen here...imagine that on a much larger scale.

Heck imagine if it just involved one or two of the larger states.

DO not forget that the same military industrial complex they use to invade other countries can quickly be turned onto the streets here & martial law declared.Those folks do not represent the deepest thinkers

flying i can't even see what can stop things from developing like this

- just look art the chaos along the Mexican border

[Abrak]

  On 8/27/2010 at 7:22 AM, flying said:

DO not forget that the same military industrial complex they use to invade other countries can quickly be turned onto the streets here & martial law declared.Those folks do not represent the deepest thinkers

Well one thing for sure is that the US has a huge military force. While the defense budget is US$700bn, it is nearer US$1trn when you add all the defense related off budget expenses such as nuclear weapons and Star Wars. It is at least 50% of total global defense spend.

The US has actually downsized its navy but it is still the size of the next largest 13 navies put together of which 11 out of the 13 are actually US allies (internet fact that by the way.) Part of the budget deficit is structural and part cyclical but you cant help but think that a massive reduction in defense spending wouldnt be anything but very productive for the US economy.

[midas]

  On 8/27/2010 at 9:29 AM, Abrak said:

  On 8/27/2010 at 7:22 AM, flying said:

DO not forget that the same military industrial complex they use to invade other countries can quickly be turned onto the streets here & martial law declared.Those folks do not represent the deepest thinkers

Well one thing for sure is that the US has a huge military force. While the defense budget is US$700bn, it is nearer US$1trn when you add all the defense related off budget expenses such as nuclear weapons and Star Wars. It is at least 50% of total global defense spend.

The US has actually downsized its navy but it is still the size of the next largest 13 navies put together of which 11 out of the 13 are actually US allies (internet fact that by the way.) Part of the budget deficit is structural and part cyclical but you cant help but think that a massive reduction in defense spending wouldnt be anything but very productive for the US economy.

The current staff numbers in all armed forces are 1,426,713 personnel on active duty and a further 1,259,000 in the seven reserve components. How can under 3 million people keep control of 300 million many of whom will be armed ?

And I dont think you can rely on the police to do much because in some places they have already stopped doing their job !

Surely if the police not responding to these things isn't a sign that the system has already broken down - what is ?

Cops Will No Longer Respond to Crime in Oakland, California

" Forget about police assistance in Oakland, California.“Oakland’s police chief is making some dire claims about what his force will and will not respond to ” reports NBC Bay Area. “Chief Anthony Batts listed exactly 44 situations that his officers will no longer respond to and they include grand theft, burglary, car wrecks, identity theft and vandalism. He says if you live and Oakland and one of the above happens to you, you need to let police know on-line.”

In other words, if you live in the Bay area, you need to have a gun and plenty of ammunition. Because the cops just said they will no longer respond if criminals kick down your door. The bad guys no longer have anything to worry about."

[Abrak]

Is gold finger live on TV tonight?

[midas]

Beijing District Reports That The Majority Of Its Houses Have Been Vacant... For Years

With rising fears of an emerging property bubble, market concerns over the housing vacancy rate across China have deepened. However, little official data has been released. The Chaoyang District housing vacancy report is the first of its kind.

Beijing's largest district Chaoyang has issued figures showing that a total of 1.33 million square meters of residential space are vacant. Over half of the space has been empty for at least three years.

Among the empty residences, villas and luxury apartments totaled 521,000 square meters, accounting for 39.2 percent of the total and 54.9 percent of homes have remained empty for over three years. Ordinary flats accounted for 18 percent of the empty residential space, according to the report.

http://english.caing.com/2010-08-26/100174332.html

[Abrak]

  On 8/27/2010 at 2:48 PM, midas said:

Beijing District Reports That The Majority Of Its Houses Have Been Vacant... For Years

With rising fears of an emerging property bubble, market concerns over the housing vacancy rate across China have deepened. However, little official data has been released. The Chaoyang District housing vacancy report is the first of its kind.

Beijing's largest district Chaoyang has issued figures showing that a total of 1.33 million square meters of residential space are vacant. Over half of the space has been empty for at least three years.

Among the empty residences, villas and luxury apartments totaled 521,000 square meters, accounting for 39.2 percent of the total and 54.9 percent of homes have remained empty for over three years. Ordinary flats accounted for 18 percent of the empty residential space, according to the report.

http://english.caing.com/2010-08-26/100174332.html

What never ceases to amaze me about housing bubbles - and I do mean this genuinely - is that at the end of them there always appears to be a massive oversupply rather than shortage of property.

It isnt particularly true of the UK.

But it is true of the US, China and Spain.

Not only do people find that prices have gone up for far too long but that there hasnt been any reason for them to go up anyways.

[LaoPo]

  On 8/27/2010 at 3:53 PM, Abrak said:

  On 8/27/2010 at 2:48 PM, midas said:

Beijing District Reports That The Majority Of Its Houses Have Been Vacant... For Years

With rising fears of an emerging property bubble, market concerns over the housing vacancy rate across China have deepened. However, little official data has been released. The Chaoyang District housing vacancy report is the first of its kind.

Beijing's largest district Chaoyang has issued figures showing that a total of 1.33 million square meters of residential space are vacant. Over half of the space has been empty for at least three years.

Among the empty residences, villas and luxury apartments totaled 521,000 square meters, accounting for 39.2 percent of the total and 54.9 percent of homes have remained empty for over three years. Ordinary flats accounted for 18 percent of the empty residential space, according to the report.

http://english.caing.../100174332.html

What never ceases to amaze me about housing bubbles - and I do mean this genuinely - is that at the end of them there always appears to be a massive oversupply rather than shortage of property.

It isnt particularly true of the UK.

But it is true of the US, China and Spain.

Not only do people find that prices have gone up for far too long but that there hasnt been any reason for them to go up anyways.

There is a huge difference between the housing problems/bubbles in the US, Spain and in China.

In the first two countries, people bought their homes with very high mortgages at moments the interest rates were extremely low with very little to none down payments on their mortgages.

In Spain, next to the previous described problem, speculator/investors were building and building without knowing what the market was asking for and without realizing that foreigners (mainly from mainland Europe and the UK) lost interest in buying second home property due to the upcoming crisis.

Next to that, in Spain, the percentage of homeowners amongst young people -starters- is one of the highest in Europe and it is considered wise to invest in a house at an early age.

Nobody, however, expected such a dramatic fall of jobs after the crisis started (20% unemployment now) and most young people couldn't afford to pay for their mortgages anymore.

Now, Spain has some 1,5 million houses for sale on the official market (on a population of 40 million) but nobody knows how many more are for sale on the silent market, simply because they stopped or are not advertising since there are no buyers anyway.

In China, many families who could/can afford so, bought/buy second houses with either cash savings money or with a high down payment on the mortgages. 30% to 60% down payment and higher is not uncommon.

Many families pre-bought houses for their child(ren), even if they are still very young.

As an example, by sister/brother-in-law bought a beautiful brand new apartment for their son, 23, 3 years ago and it's still empty. They paid cash and they consider it to be a good investment for their son's future.

They don't care if he isn't able yet to design/build the interior since his ongoing education for a better future is considered to be more important; more important because he wants to make a good income first before being able to "offer" a future wife (and child) a good life.

Chinese think different than most western people and therefore I don't see the enormous "buffer" in empty houses as a big problem.

We shouldn't forget that 99% of the Chinese households SAVE money from their net income, no matter how low or high and in most cases that's at least 30% and up!!

Saving money is in the Chinese genes.

In the west, many live from paycheck to paycheck.

LaoPo

[flying]

Actually the US suffers from both kinds of inventory.

Meaning the vacant foreclosed/walked away from homes & also the spec builders.

Just look at areas like Las Vegas etc where spec builders went nuts.

In the other states it was not just spec builders it was spec novices.

Man they even had reality TV shows called Flip It or something like that. Where common non building type folks buy homes do a few renovations & flip it/re-sell it for a 100k profit. All during the boom of course.

Well with the TV viewing what it is in the US all these everyday folks with unrelated day jobs decided it looked like easy money & they also started buying used & also building from scratch while visions of big profits danced in their heads.

They actually thought they could all just buy land & hire contractors or worse....& build a home that would sell & have 100K profit....easily

[BlackJack]

  On 8/27/2010 at 5:08 PM, flying said:

Actually the US suffers from both kinds of inventory.

Meaning the vacant foreclosed/walked away from homes & also the spec builders.

Just look at areas like Las Vegas etc where spec builders went nuts.

In the other states it was not just spec builders it was spec novices.

Man they even had reality TV shows called Flip It or something like that. Where common non building type folks buy homes do a few renovations & flip it/re-sell it for a 100k profit. All during the boom of course.

Well with the TV viewing what it is in the US all these everyday folks with unrelated day jobs decided it looked like easy money & they also started buying used & also building from scratch while visions of big profits danced in their heads.

They actually thought they could all just buy land & hire contractors or worse....& build a home that would sell & have 100K profit....easily

[BlackJack]

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold demand reached 1,050.3 metric tons in the second quarter, 36% higher than the same quarter in 2009, mostly thanks to soaring investment demand, a report from the World Gold Council showed early Wednesday.

Economic uncertainties around the world are expected to provide continued support for gold, said the council, an industry group backed by leading gold mining companies.

These concerns led investors to gobble up gold in the second quarter, the World Gold Council said. Demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds rose 414% compared to the second quarter of 2009. Retail investment demand rose 29% in the same period.

[lannarebirth]

  On 8/28/2010 at 3:18 AM, BlackJack said:

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold demand reached 1,050.3 metric tons in the second quarter, 36% higher than the same quarter in 2009, mostly thanks to soaring investment demand, a report from the World Gold Council showed early Wednesday.

Economic uncertainties around the world are expected to provide continued support for gold, said the council, an industry group backed by leading gold mining companies.

These concerns led investors to gobble up gold in the second quarter, the World Gold Council said. Demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds rose 414% compared to the second quarter of 2009. Retail investment demand rose 29% in the same period.

Are the pension funds in yet?

edit:

  Quote

But perhaps it is pension funds that are making the biggest change in direction. “Traditionally pension funds shied away from gold and commodities,” says Mr Grubb. In the past, pension fund trustees said gold and other precious metals were difficult to value and did not have a yield, “but this is beginning to change”, he adds.

US pension schemes, in particular, have been buying gold, including the Teachers Retirement Scheme of Texas and the New Jersey Division of Investment. The former scheme invested $125m in the SPDR Gold Trust last October and a similar amount in precious metal mining stocks, setting up a separate gold portfolio to hold the investments, according to the World Gold Council.

http://cachef.ft.com/cms/s/0/a667d16c-7003-11df-8698-00144feabdc0,s01=1.html