Financial Crisis

[midas]

Naam, you are frustrating at best. You sit on a self-appointed pedestal and make one-line critical wise cracks about what others say, without posting anything of substance yourself.

I can come to only one conclusion; you actually don't know much. Pretending and strutting and making smart remarks doesn't cut it.

Did someone other than yourself appoint you the critic of this forum, or is it open to everyone without your subtle insults?

I am still predicting big trouble for SE Asia. Thailand's policies are a joke. It is selfishly run by people who have their own agendas rather than the county's welfare at heart. They spend money foolishly and run deficits buying votes in things like the rice scheme and new car scheme and new home scheme. They are breaking the banks with excesses not the least of which is the revolving fund for the rice scheme which need about 700 billion baht right now. All of the money is borrowed from the state owned Agricultural bank, if you can call it a loan since it isn't being paid back but rather increased. Other banks are in trouble and there is a massive bubble in new real estate construction - the downfall also of China.

China's policies are a joke and are catching up with them. All of the exuberant predictions about China are crumbling. We haven't seen the truth or the real picture in China for a long time, but its banks are overloaded with loans for those ghost cities. China's most profitable industries are idle because of the global economy, and they are selling mainly cheap and not so profitable items. They are running up debt like there was no tomorrow. Too much of China's reported GDP is real estate construction which is heading off a cliff.

The cracks are beginning to show. Link to just one view.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the Eurozone and even in the UK although the UK is probably OK. Australia is showing cracks and Canada is doing a bit better although they too are running deficits where they weren't just a few years ago.

I'm putting all of my money in the US and Great Britain and Germany for a couple of years until I see what's coming a little better. Germany will be fine, The UK is working on it and the US is slowly pulling ahead running a surplus this quarter for the first time in years. That won't last, but the new oil discoveries are going to make the US energy independent by the end of the decade. US companies have gone global and are making much of their money on overseas markets. It is also the leader in innovation and is making most of the money globally in tech.

You may make note of this post and get back to me in two years to see how I did.

Do you have the guts to run off a post like this real fast Naam and give your opinions specifically about what's happening?

I didn't think so. You'll make smart remarks about my post as if you're a guru. Just watch.

Don't even bother to waste your time NeverSure. I have come to the conclusion that trying to get a sensible reaction from Naam is like pushing on string.

I came tothe conclusion long ago he knows nothing . He can troll, flame others, insult

others but in four years his only contribution has been to post information

from his own banksters for Christ's sake! Say no more

Well I don't know you or your investing philosophy so I don't know where you are with that.

I know only that if Naam comes back it won't be for substantive posts of information, or for a meaningful debate. Just watch. It will be his idea of a clever short retort which will say nothing except show what he really is.

He's not capable of stringing a few paragraphs together of meaningful ideas. He doesn't know enough to debate even if he disagrees, or add to the conversation if he agrees.

Just watch. He'll either avoid totally, or make short inane comments.

The most astonishing thing of all is that he claims to have been a scientist? Go figure

Edited May 26, 2013 by midas

[yoshiwara]

Naam, you are frustrating at best. You sit on a self-appointed pedestal and make one-line critical wise cracks about what others say, without posting anything of substance yourself.

I can come to only one conclusion; you actually don't know much. Pretending and strutting and making smart remarks doesn't cut it.

Did someone other than yourself appoint you the critic of this forum, or is it open to everyone without your subtle insults?

I am still predicting big trouble for SE Asia. Thailand's policies are a joke. It is selfishly run by people who have their own agendas rather than the county's welfare at heart. They spend money foolishly and run deficits buying votes in things like the rice scheme and new car scheme and new home scheme. They are breaking the banks with excesses not the least of which is the revolving fund for the rice scheme which need about 700 billion baht right now. All of the money is borrowed from the state owned Agricultural bank, if you can call it a loan since it isn't being paid back but rather increased. Other banks are in trouble and there is a massive bubble in new real estate construction - the downfall also of China.

China's policies are a joke and are catching up with them. All of the exuberant predictions about China are crumbling. We haven't seen the truth or the real picture in China for a long time, but its banks are overloaded with loans for those ghost cities. China's most profitable industries are idle because of the global economy, and they are selling mainly cheap and not so profitable items. They are running up debt like there was no tomorrow. Too much of China's reported GDP is real estate construction which is heading off a cliff.

The cracks are beginning to show. Link to just one view.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the Eurozone and even in the UK although the UK is probably OK. Australia is showing cracks and Canada is doing a bit better although they too are running deficits where they weren't just a few years ago.

I'm putting all of my money in the US and Great Britain and Germany for a couple of years until I see what's coming a little better. Germany will be fine, The UK is working on it and the US is slowly pulling ahead running a surplus this quarter for the first time in years. That won't last, but the new oil discoveries are going to make the US energy independent by the end of the decade. US companies have gone global and are making much of their money on overseas markets. It is also the leader in innovation and is making most of the money globally in tech.

You may make note of this post and get back to me in two years to see how I did.

Do you have the guts to run off a post like this real fast Naam and give your opinions specifically about what's happening?

I didn't think so. You'll make smart remarks about my post as if you're a guru. Just watch.

Don't even bother to waste your time NeverSure. I have come to the conclusion that trying to get a sensible reaction from Naam is like pushing on string.

I came tothe conclusion long ago he knows nothing . He can troll, flame others, insult

others but in four years his only contribution has been to post information

from his own banksters for Christ's sake! Say no more

Well I don't know you or your investing philosophy so I don't know where you are with that.

I know only that if Naam comes back it won't be for substantive posts of information, or for a meaningful debate. Just watch. It will be his idea of a clever short retort which will say nothing except show what he really is.

He's not capable of stringing a few paragraphs together of meaningful ideas. He doesn't know enough to debate even if he disagrees, or add to the conversation if he agrees.

Just watch. He'll either avoid totally, or make short inane comments.

The most astonishing thing of all is that he claims to have been a scientist? Go figure:whistling:

I think you have a Degree in Copying and Pasting. Yes?

[Naam]

Naam, you are frustrating at best. You sit on a self-appointed pedestal and make one-line critical wise cracks about what others say, without posting anything of substance yourself.

I can come to only one conclusion; you actually don't know much. Pretending and strutting and making smart remarks doesn't cut it.

Did someone other than yourself appoint you the critic of this forum, or is it open to everyone without your subtle insults?

I am still predicting big trouble for SE Asia. Thailand's policies are a joke. It is selfishly run by people who have their own agendas rather than the county's welfare at heart. They spend money foolishly and run deficits buying votes in things like the rice scheme and new car scheme and new home scheme. They are breaking the banks with excesses not the least of which is the revolving fund for the rice scheme which need about 700 billion baht right now. All of the money is borrowed from the state owned Agricultural bank, if you can call it a loan since it isn't being paid back but rather increased. Other banks are in trouble and there is a massive bubble in new real estate construction - the downfall also of China.

China's policies are a joke and are catching up with them. All of the exuberant predictions about China are crumbling. We haven't seen the truth or the real picture in China for a long time, but its banks are overloaded with loans for those ghost cities. China's most profitable industries are idle because of the global economy, and they are selling mainly cheap and not so profitable items. They are running up debt like there was no tomorrow. Too much of China's reported GDP is real estate construction which is heading off a cliff.

The cracks are beginning to show. Link to just one view.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the Eurozone and even in the UK although the UK is probably OK. Australia is showing cracks and Canada is doing a bit better although they too are running deficits where they weren't just a few years ago.

I'm putting all of my money in the US and Great Britain and Germany for a couple of years until I see what's coming a little better. Germany will be fine, The UK is working on it and the US is slowly pulling ahead running a surplus this quarter for the first time in years. That won't last, but the new oil discoveries are going to make the US energy independent by the end of the decade. US companies have gone global and are making much of their money on overseas markets. It is also the leader in innovation and is making most of the money globally in tech.

You may make note of this post and get back to me in two years to see how I did.

Do you have the guts to run off a post like this real fast Naam and give your opinions specifically about what's happening?

I didn't think so. You'll make smart remarks about my post as if you're a guru. Just watch.

Don't even bother to waste your time NeverSure. I have come to the conclusion that trying to get a sensible reaction from Naam is like pushing on string.

I came tothe conclusion long ago he knows nothing . He can troll, flame others, insult

others but in four years his only contribution has been to post information

from his own banksters for Christ's sake! Say no more

Well I don't know you or your investing philosophy so I don't know where you are with that.

I know only that if Naam comes back it won't be for substantive posts of information, or for a meaningful debate. Just watch. It will be his idea of a clever short retort which will say nothing except show what he really is.

He's not capable of stringing a few paragraphs together of meaningful ideas. He doesn't know enough to debate even if he disagrees, or add to the conversation if he agrees.

Just watch. He'll either avoid totally, or make short inane comments.

short inane and ridiculous comments containing substantive information such as your "boasting with personal wealth" when i mentioned bond yields?

[Naam]

Do you have the guts to run off a post like this real fast Naam and give your opinions specifically about what's happening?

yawwwnnn...

it does not take guts, it just takes time to waste posting forecasts and personal opinions to be verified "two years" from now. there are (besides you) already too many "gurus" who swamp the internet, newspapers and magazines with ridiculous and contradicting opinions/views.

today i rather use a part of my precious time (started yesterday) going through 456 pages of a bond description (ISIN XS0877983642) and i haven't even managed half of the pages.

http://em.cbonds.com/emissions/issue/34231

[midas]

Don't even bother to waste your time NeverSure. I have come to the conclusion that trying to get a sensible reaction from Naam is like pushing on string.

I came tothe conclusion long ago he knows nothing . He can troll, flame others, insult

others but in four years his only contribution has been to post information

from his own banksters for Christ's sake! Say no more

Well I don't know you or your investing philosophy so I don't know where you are with that.

I know only that if Naam comes back it won't be for substantive posts of information, or for a meaningful debate. Just watch. It will be his idea of a clever short retort which will say nothing except show what he really is.

He's not capable of stringing a few paragraphs together of meaningful ideas. He doesn't know enough to debate even if he disagrees, or add to the conversation if he agrees.

Just watch. He'll either avoid totally, or make short inane comments.

The most astonishing thing of all is that he claims to have been a scientist? Go figure:whistling:

I think you have a Degree in Copying and Pasting. Yes?

You can make as many sarcastic comments as you like Yoshiwara but what you can't escape from is that the likesof you and your buddy and supporter Naam have absolutely not a shred of information that you can cut and paste to support your position which is to encourage more debt and the criminal actions of the banksters.

And that is the crux. It's not like anyone can have a rational debate that what is being done

surreptitiously to the people is correct. This worldwide debt cannot and will not repaid and will have shocking repercussions for future generations.

Whatever your agenda and Naam ‘s agenda is people like you don't want the truth to come out. No one is writing anything in support of what is being done or to argue why your position is correct and in the best interests of the people. It is in the interests of a handful and that is all.

It's more like hoping the sheeple never really wake up and become aware of what is really happening. All you can do is ridicule the information and label those who explain what's happening as doom and gloom.

Very feeble

Edited May 26, 2013 by midas

[NeverSure]

short inane and ridiculous comments containing substantive information such as your "boasting with personal wealth" when i mentioned bond yields?

Naam, you are the one who pretends to be the big dog. I don't recall that I ever indicated whether I'm wealthy

I did correctly predict that you'd come back with one-line insults though and nothing substantive about the topic of the financial crisis. At that, I'm a guru.

Do you have the guts to run off a post like this real fast Naam and give your opinions specifically about what's happening?

yawwwnnn...

it does not take guts, it just takes time to waste posting forecasts and personal opinions to be verified "two years" from now. there are (besides you) already too many "gurus" who swamp the internet, newspapers and magazines with ridiculous and contradicting opinions/views.

today i rather use a part of my precious time (started yesterday) going through 456 pages of a bond description (ISIN XS0877983642) and i haven't even managed half of the pages.

http://em.cbonds.com/emissions/issue/34231

See, I can predict the future. I predicted you would come back with nothing of substance.

The topic is the financial crisis. Obviously you can't say anything meaningful about the world situation.

I honestly don't think you know anything about it.

In my rather long post above I laid out specifics about what I think of the financial crisis. That's the topic. Everyone else is encouraged to do the same, if he has an opinion.

Edited May 26, 2013 by NeverSure

[manarak]

This worldwide debt cannot and will not repaid and will have shocking repercussions for future generations.

Hi Midas, what everybody is tired of is the collection of copy-pastes without any personal thought added.

Regarding the sentence I quoted above from your post, yes, future generations will probably have an even harder time than mine, but it will not be because of debt.

If the debt is overwhelming, it will just be "agreed away", no worries.

It will be kept around as long as it's more useful than harmful to the system, and this moment will come when the debt causes established structures to lose power/control over people, then things will change.

[yoshiwara]

You can make as many sarcastic comments as you like Yoshiwara but what you can't escape from is that the likesof you and your buddy and supporter Naam have absolutely not a shred of information that you can cut and paste to support your position which is to encourage more debt and the criminal actions of the banksters.

And that is the crux. It's not like anyone can have a rational debate that what is being done

surreptitiously to the people is correct. This worldwide debt cannot and will not repaid and will have shocking repercussions for future generations.

Whatever your agenda and Naam ‘s agenda is people like you don't want the truth to come out. No one is writing anything in support of what is being done or to argue why your position is correct and in the best interests of the people. It is in the interests of a handful and that is all.

It's more like hoping the sheeple never really wake up and become aware of what is really happening. All you can do is ridicule the information and label those who explain what's happening as doom and gloom.

Very feeble:bah:

Naam I am sure has his own fish to fry but defenestration of those who dance around bags of coins screaming weird spelling incantations of 'Out Sheeples!', 'Out Banksters! and hopping from one bold face to another (the only thing missing is the green ink) is but a popular pastime for those who live in this world rather than the Apocalyptic One. Edited May 26, 2013 by yoshiwara

[NeverSure]

Thailand's exports fall 3.7% last quarter after estimates of a gain of 3%. BBC

25 May 2012 Last updated at 03:54 ET

"Thailand exports fall in April as global demand slows.

Thailand has reported a surprise fall in its exports for April because of falling demand from key markets such as Europe and the US.

Shipments fell 3.7% from a year earlier. Many analysts had forecast an increase of more than 3%.

The data comes just days after the World Bank warned that the eurozone debt crisis was a threat to export-dependent economies in Asia.

Analysts said exports could come under further pressure in the near future.

"The eurozone's ongoing problems will continue to drag on Thai exports and this is a factor to watch," said Kampon Adireksombat, a senior economist with Tisco Securities."

Now I'm just wondering if we'll ever get the truth out of China. 40% of its GDP is construction when one might think that more of it is exports. Its ghost city real estate boom is financed by state owned banks. Because the means of production belongs to the communist government, the government depends on profits from industry and profits from exports to finance itself.

Exports of large and profitable items are way down, and China's exports now consist mostly of cheaper and less profitable items.

The West has had its crash and is trying to recover. Asia's crash is yet to come. All of the belief that Asia is the next world leader is crap. Asia can't survive without exporting to the West. Asia's production costs are rising and much of the manufacturing is being pulled back to the West.

The Thai government is stuck. They've already made so many promises and are in deep trouble over the rice scheme and bank loans for an overbuilt real estate bubble. Now on top of the big deficits and borrowing they've been doing to stay afloat, they now lose a bunch of tax revenue on production of exports.

I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop, as they say.

Edited May 26, 2013 by NeverSure

[mccw]

"25th may 2012"

Bit out of date mate

[NeverSure]

"25th may 2012"

Bit out of date mate

You are right. My apologies. I copied the wrong link. The shrinkage isn't 3.7%. It's 4%.

Thai exports shrank 4% or Bt55 billion over 1st three months of 2013 due to baht appreciation: Office of Industrial Economics Link

Of course they blame it on the baht. They neglect to probably even understand why the baht is too high. They also fail to realize that part of the loss of exports is their new minimum wage and part is the rice scheme losing exports and part is the difficulty of actually starting and running a business in Thailand and part of it is that their credit rating sucks while they borrow too much expensive money bringing in too many foreign dollars which have to be converted to baht.

The demand for baht is to buy bonds to finance the government at what some think is a good interest rate for the risk. Some people are going to get burned.

I don't take back anything I said about losses in China, or Thailand's high interest borrowing, it decline in tax revenues today, or the real estate bubble financed by Thai banks, the rice scheme, housing scheme and new car scheme financed by Thai banks.

Edited May 26, 2013 by NeverSure

[mccw]

I've done it before but Neversure is asking for some future scope so I'll throw my forecast in again:

-China & Thailand ; moving to greater domestic consumption fuelled through debt expansion model. Still have the cycles of increase, short contraction and further increases. Stronger currencies. -China & SE Asia + Russia, much of South America continue to see some decades of growth. Inflation picks up and the ones left behind will hurt but far larger numbers are seeing increasing living standards (in consumer sense) with a widening middle and upper classes.

-Canada & Australia will do ok; modest growth but not huge numbers. Standard of living ok but squeezed by inflation.

- EU, USA & UK see steady stagflation to varying degrees. Money created to buy government bonds to stop collapse leads to money continuing to loose its purchasing power. Inflation of essential goods squeezes disposable incomes and consumption of discretionary goods falls further; Leading to empty high streets and retail units. This can already be seen in latest commercial property vacancy reports out of UK. Perhapse at some point down the line exports will pick up but by then the countries look a very different place. Top tiny % does alright but the rest falling down. I would be happy to debate this but what ever scenario out of the debt levels, more debt, less debt, however it goes I can tell you exactly why it will be a negative out come/ a different kind of suffering. That's not to say everything is doomed but it is inevitable that major restructuring will happen one way or the other; either the state spending must give or the creation of money will force the currency down.

---

And since Yoshi always say to me "your doom and gloom posting with out saying what your doing about it" , even though i have on many occasion, but i can say again now since i am sit with a nice cup of tea on this chilly sunny England afternoon- ok so -My investment once restructured a little will be looking like this:

- leveraged UK student rental property portfolio making 25-33% pa income; (keeping long term as main source of income.)

- one UK property rented, mortgaged, not so great on rental return; But Looking to sell in a year or two and expecting to make a 40-50% capital increase. (Mortgaged leverage means these number I'm quoting are cash in and cash out after costs, not totals as if mortage money is my own)

- small amount of operating cash in Lloyds Vantage accounts (free current accounts paying 3%PA on first 6 or £8,000 so long as you have £1,500pm passing through account; you can have multiple accounts and pass the money circled between them on standing order btw)

- Thai land speculation (wife's name); medium to long term view.

- Thai condo (second hand which we'll renovate) for holiday rental starting at just 1 to see how it goes but maybe add more; to bring in some bht in case £ goes down too too much. Medium to long term view.

- Operating cash in current account + enough more to jump on opportunities if they arise at right price. (Just cash held in bht- no particular aim to make very high % on long fixed terms or gambling on other products)

- will expand both UK and Thai property portfolio as the years go on.

- Will be keeping a reserve of 5% to 10% total assets in physical gold, silver, and fine antique carpets ;-)

- will have Thai residence and properties all cash/ no loans and only the leverage in England.

- Enough Thai agricultural land to be self sufficient, water source and power.

- Plenty of Guns and ammunition

I think Thailand north is one of safest places on the planet. Despite above forecasts I can see huge risks all over that could rock the world. If things do get out of control; Thais can go back to the farms without too much problem. West is so far removed from people taking care of themselves that there would be major social unrest and systemic upheaval, when the welfare/ benefits can't buy enough food etc; I think such a time is not so very far away.

So I'm plan for both the best (my stagflation theory) and the worst (total collapse). Any major growth in west is impossible I think but if some miracle happens then the UK property should gain from this. With £ more likely dropping its not so bad because my debt will cost less to clear, so long as the bht or metal hedges carry off ok, not sure what else to hedge with really- any ideas? Certainly not US $ or €.

Stocks are total bubble territory right now. I have zero in stocks. If markets plunge hard but not a total collapse then I might think about getting in at that point on some long term dividend payers.

Never sure

What do you mean "keeping your money in US, Germany, UK"? In the bank? If so- I'd say you must be nuts mate! No offence.

-----

- I also have plans to make some bht generating business (not bar, coffee, massage or anything like that) but this I will keep to myself for now.

-----

Good evening.

[mccw]

"25th may 2012"

Bit out of date mate

You are right. My apologies. I copied the wrong link. The shrinkage isn't 3.7%. It's 4%.

Thai exports shrank 4% or Bt55 billion over 1st three months of 2013 due to baht appreciation: Office of Industrial Economics Link

Of course they blame it on the baht. They neglect to probably even understand why the baht is too high. They also fail to realize that part of the loss of exports is their new minimum wage and part is the rice scheme losing exports and part is the difficulty of actually starting and running a business in Thailand and part of it is that their credit rating sucks while they borrow too much expensive money bringing in too many foreign dollars which have to be converted to baht.

The demand for baht is to buy bonds to finance the government at what some think is a good interest rate for the risk. Some people are going to get burned.

I don't take back anything I said about losses in China, or Thailand's high interest borrowing, it decline in tax revenues today, or the real estate bubble financed by Thai banks, the rice scheme, housing scheme and new car scheme financed by Thai banks.

I can't be bothered to find the links but despite what you write above I think the Thai gov debt is about 60% GDP; way less than all western countries. Also they have been paying off old more expensive forign debt with the strong bht, so the costs of the higher debt are negligible.

I agree many policy is dumb but they can carry on the debt path for a while. The west ran a debt bubbled consumer spending, government spending failed growth model for 30 of years. Thailand has space enough to go through several more cycles of the same until even getting close to western mess of right now.

[mccw]

Thai and Chinese are borrowing for infrastructure investments wich will serve them well for next 50 to 100years or more.

While wests infrastructure is largely creaking and crumbling and all the debt and borrowing just goes to fund totally unsustainable welfare program's and dumb wars for only reasons of furthering some elites financial games.

[NeverSure]

I've done it before but Neversure is asking for some future scope so I'll throw my forecast in again:

-China & Thailand ; moving to greater domestic consumption fuelled through debt expansion model. Still have the cycles of increase, short contraction and further increases. Stronger currencies. -China & SE Asia + Russia, much of South America continue to see some decades of growth. Inflation picks up and the ones left behind will hurt but far larger numbers are seeing increasing living standards (in consumer sense) with a widening middle and upper classes.

-Canada & Australia will do ok; modest growth but not huge numbers. Standard of living ok but squeezed by inflation.

- EU, USA & UK see steady stagflation to varying degrees. Money created to buy government bonds to stop collapse leads to money continuing to loose its purchasing power. Inflation of essential goods squeezes disposable incomes and consumption of discretionary goods falls further; Leading to empty high streets and retail units. This can already be seen in latest commercial property vacancy reports out of UK. Perhapse at some point down the line exports will pick up but by then the countries look a very different place. Top tiny % does alright but the rest falling down. I would be happy to debate this but what ever scenario out of the debt levels, more debt, less debt, however it goes I can tell you exactly why it will be a negative out come/ a different kind of suffering. That's not to say everything is doomed but it is inevitable that major restructuring will happen one way or the other; either the state spending must give or the creation of money will force the currency down.

---

And since Yoshi always say to me "your doom and gloom posting with out saying what your doing about it" , even though i have on many occasion, but i can say again now since i am sit with a nice cup of tea on this chilly sunny England afternoon- ok so -My investment once restructured a little will be looking like this:

- leveraged UK student rental property portfolio making 25-33% pa income; (keeping long term as main source of income.)

- one UK property rented, mortgaged, not so great on rental return; But Looking to sell in a year or two and expecting to make a 40-50% capital increase. (Mortgaged leverage means these number I'm quoting are cash in and cash out after costs, not totals as if mortage money is my own)

- small amount of operating cash in Lloyds Vantage accounts (free current accounts paying 3%PA on first 6 or £8,000 so long as you have £1,500pm passing through account; you can have multiple accounts and pass the money circled between them on standing order btw)

- Thai land speculation (wife's name); medium to long term view.

- Thai condo (second hand which we'll renovate) for holiday rental starting at just 1 to see how it goes but maybe add more; to bring in some bht in case £ goes down too too much. Medium to long term view.

- Operating cash in current account + enough more to jump on opportunities if they arise at right price. (Just cash held in bht- no particular aim to make very high % on long fixed terms or gambling on other products)

- will expand both UK and Thai property portfolio as the years go on.

- Will be keeping a reserve of 5% to 10% total assets in physical gold, silver, and fine antique carpets ;-)

- will have Thai residence and properties all cash/ no loans and only the leverage in England.

- Enough Thai agricultural land to be self sufficient, water source and power.

- Plenty of Guns and ammunition

I think Thailand north is one of safest places on the planet. Despite above forecasts I can see huge risks all over that could rock the world. If things do get out of control; Thais can go back to the farms without too much problem. West is so far removed from people taking care of themselves that there would be major social unrest and systemic upheaval, when the welfare/ benefits can't buy enough food etc; I think such a time is not so very far away.

So I'm plan for both the best (my stagflation theory) and the worst (total collapse). Any major growth in west is impossible I think but if some miracle happens then the UK property should gain from this. With £ more likely dropping its not so bad because my debt will cost less to clear, so long as the bht or metal hedges carry off ok, not sure what else to hedge with really- any ideas? Certainly not US $ or €.

Stocks are total bubble territory right now. I have zero in stocks. If markets plunge hard but not a total collapse then I might think about getting in at that point on some long term dividend payers.

Never sure

What do you mean "keeping your money in US, Germany, UK"? In the bank? If so- I'd say you must be nuts mate! No offence.

-----

- I also have plans to make some bht generating business (not bar, coffee, massage or anything like that) but this I will keep to myself for now.

-----

Good evening.

Nice post. I like it. That's the idea.

Now, let me make it clear again. I won't keep money in banks in the US, Germany, UK. I never said that. I will keep my money in those countries because it's diversified and I think perhaps they are the most stable.

We disagree on Asia but that's great. Let's see what happens. I think rather than being the rising power, it is a gust in the wind that will not only fail to rise higher, but will begin to fall abruptly. Only part of that will be due to corruption and the fact that China is communist and that model never works. The law in China is that the government must own at least 50% of every business, so when business falters so does the government. In other countries such as the US right now, the private sector can grow despite the government.

Don't write off the US. Its next wave will be stunning. It has more oil reserves than all of the rest of the world combined and is on the verge of displacing Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer. It not only will soon become energy independent, but it will not long after become a net exporter of oil. The US is huge, geographically diversified, has 88,000 miles of salt water shoreline, link has a 100 year supply of natural gas already drilled, and it's resources alone make it wealthy. No other country comes close. See my more detailed post with links here.

Additionally, the US "owns" technology and exports its ideas. The internet, hardware, software, smartphones, Android, Microsoft, Silicon Valley, the microprocessor, and so many other things are led by the US and profits flow to the US.

The US is global. Walmart has about 1/2 of its store outside the US and its the most profitable company in the world. Even low tech things like Burger King, McDonald's, KFC and Starbucks are making money for the US. So don't go too hard on the US stock market. I think prices are high at 14 times earnings, but people are betting on continued earnings growth as companies continue to go global. GM, which is one of the top ten most profitable companies in the world manufactures in 35 countries.

Google is about to provide a cheap smartphone (they developed Android) and internet connections worldwide, to about another billion people. They have the technology. Some say their stock is too expensive and I say it's cheap, betting the future. Only about 1/3 of the world has internet, leaving more than 4 billion without it, so it's still a huge untapped market as costs fall.

Can China do any of these things? No. They are copiers at best when they aren't outright hackers and thieves, and they manufacture what others invented. You can't make real money doing that. The inventor and owner will make the money. China's GDP is BS. In most countries it matters. In China you'd have to be able to see behind it and know if it's profitable because much of the profit represents government income. Their banks are government owned and unaudited. It's a communist country, none of whom have ever prospered and China won't either. No BS about China being "capitalist." It has 1.3 billion people, most left behind. China has to feed and care for those people under a communist system.

Cheers.

[Naam]

This worldwide debt cannot and will not repaid and will have shocking repercussions for future generations.

Hi Midas, what everybody is tired of is the collection of copy-pastes without any personal thought added.

Regarding the sentence I quoted above from your post, yes, future generations will probably have an even harder time than mine, but it will not be because of debt.

If the debt is overwhelming, it will just be "agreed away", no worries.

It will be kept around as long as it's more useful than harmful to the system, and this moment will come when the debt causes established structures to lose power/control over people, then things will change.

a prerequisite to add personal thoughts is to have personal thoughts. Midas' substitute for personal thoughts are 'yewtoob' clips, quoting well known gloom&doomers and last not least posting irrelevant quotes made by famous dead persons.

[NeverSure]

This worldwide debt cannot and will not repaid and will have shocking repercussions for future generations.

Hi Midas, what everybody is tired of is the collection of copy-pastes without any personal thought added.

Regarding the sentence I quoted above from your post, yes, future generations will probably have an even harder time than mine, but it will not be because of debt.

If the debt is overwhelming, it will just be "agreed away", no worries.

It will be kept around as long as it's more useful than harmful to the system, and this moment will come when the debt causes established structures to lose power/control over people, then things will change.

a prerequisite to add personal thoughts is to have personal thoughts. Midas' substitute for personal thoughts are 'yewtoob' clips, quoting well known gloom&doomers and last not least posting irrelevant quotes made by famous dead persons.

So Naam, Do YOU have any personal thoughts on the economy (rhetorical question at best) or are you still satisfied to show up and make criticisms of other people and their posts? Some of us are putting real effort into our posts - on topic - and getting along fine even if we disagree.

Maybe you can't see what you are, but others can. You're unable to contribute substantive personal thoughts to the TOPIC of the thread because you don't have any.

Why don't you limit yourself to posting in the Pattaya thread about the price of services there and where you think they are going?

Edited May 26, 2013 by NeverSure

[mccw]

Hi never sure. Of course its fine to disagree; I actually find these kind of exchanges of thought helps me consider my own points of view better when well thought our alternatives are presented.

So in reply to a couple of your points: -

1) google etc other major US corporation are indeed disses full and profitable. But the problem is with these huge corps is that they pay very little if any tax in US or UK or any place other than the shifty low tax zones. They play the global system shifting profits around and so out compete local small companies meaning that for ever job created in the supply or retail chain they are actually hollowing out many more tax paying businesses and better quality mid level jobs and business owners that contribute more to their local economies. This is a well advanced trend already happening over the past two decades but most markedly in the naughties. See the recent scandles of Starbucks, amazon, google, in the UK press. Sillicon valley may invent things but they are made in china (running surplus and aquiring massive reserves), and the revenue/ profits are never seen again in USA (running huge deficits and accumulating record debt with no let up in sight)

2) the big talk of US energy independence. Maybe it will happen. I don't know about the health of these companies doing the drilling. I read on RT I think that most are borderline bankrupt and that the investment in these explorations is a bandwagon bubble with wells lasting too short a time and costing too much to be economic- but then they probably have an agenda so I hold back from judgement and we'll just have to wait and see. One thing is sure though; all that energy is high cost/ energy in to energy out ratio to extract it so by the time its really profitable to cost of oil must be very high. Also the huge investment/ speculation in US gas had flooded the market and lead to price collapse putting many out of biz. Its a big country yes and must have resources but most easy to extract ones were taken out of the ground already. Its the less developed parts of the world where more easy/ cheaper and profitable energy lies most likely. Like china, Mongolia, Central Asia and such places. I wouldn't be surprised if the auS fracking is supported from the fed through the banks to gain strategic energy rebalancing- but I don't know if printed money to run an overly expensive inefficient rescourse extraction program is a great idea- but perhapse not so bad as blowing billion billion whatever dollars on wars to secure supplies in the Middle East, maybe its a net saving; certainly a lot more secure. But still we come back to the massive printing going on to facilitate all this. The effects of dollar purchasing power must make people poorer which is not good in a country so heavily dependant on consumer spending.

[mccw]

Just interested to know how you are "keeping your money in US, Germany and UK" if its not in the bank? Property? Stocks? Bonds?

[NeverSure]

Just interested to know how you are "keeping your money in US, Germany and UK" if its not in the bank? Property? Stocks? Bonds?

Diversity. Even some real estate in the US. Real estate is cheap in the US - below replacement cost to build. I'm only talking about places to invest other than hyped 3rd world countries.

Edited May 26, 2013 by NeverSure

[NeverSure]

Hi never sure. Of course its fine to disagree; I actually find these kind of exchanges of thought helps me consider my own points of view better when well thought our alternatives are presented.

So in reply to a couple of your points: -

1) google etc other major US corporation are indeed disses full and profitable. But the problem is with these huge corps is that they pay very little if any tax in US or UK or any place other than the shifty low tax zones. They play the global system shifting profits around and so out compete local small companies meaning that for ever job created in the supply or retail chain they are actually hollowing out many more tax paying businesses and better quality mid level jobs and business owners that contribute more to their local economies. This is a well advanced trend already happening over the past two decades but most markedly in the naughties. See the recent scandles of Starbucks, amazon, google, in the UK press. Sillicon valley may invent things but they are made in china (running surplus and aquiring massive reserves), and the revenue/ profits are never seen again in USA (running huge deficits and accumulating record debt with no let up in sight)

2) the big talk of US energy independence. Maybe it will happen. I don't know about the health of these companies doing the drilling. I read on RT I think that most are borderline bankrupt and that the investment in these explorations is a bandwagon bubble with wells lasting too short a time and costing too much to be economic- but then they probably have an agenda so I hold back from judgement and we'll just have to wait and see. One thing is sure though; all that energy is high cost/ energy in to energy out ratio to extract it so by the time its really profitable to cost of oil must be very high. Also the huge investment/ speculation in US gas had flooded the market and lead to price collapse putting many out of biz. Its a big country yes and must have resources but most easy to extract ones were taken out of the ground already. Its the less developed parts of the world where more easy/ cheaper and profitable energy lies most likely. Like china, Mongolia, Central Asia and such places. I wouldn't be surprised if the auS fracking is supported from the fed through the banks to gain strategic energy rebalancing- but I don't know if printed money to run an overly expensive inefficient rescourse extraction program is a great idea- but perhapse not so bad as blowing billion billion whatever dollars on wars to secure supplies in the Middle East, maybe its a net saving; certainly a lot more secure. But still we come back to the massive printing going on to facilitate all this. The effects of dollar purchasing power must make people poorer which is not good in a country so heavily dependant on consumer spending.

You and I think totally differently, but I enjoyed your thought provoking post. Thank you.

I sense a lot of dislike for big corporations, while I love them. They can develop the products I see all around me, and produce them at a good price point. Without them I wouldn't be at this computer on the internet, or alternatively using my smartphone while my washer and dryer do my work for me. I wouldn't have anything to drive to town.

If I think a corporation is making too much money and is even smart enough to avoid paying a lot of taxes, what is my answer?

Buy their stock and get in on it!!! You too can be a capitalist!!!

I totally disagree also that the country doesn't benefit when Google makes money. You haven't seen their huge server farms around the US or seen how many employees they have who do pay taxes? This is no benefit to the overall economy?

Google has something like 30,000 employees working, spending money in the economy and paying taxes. Those same people could be unemployed and collecting "entitlements" from the government.

If I made the rules, haha Businesses would pay no taxes to encourage them to develop, grow, produce, and hire people. The people would pay the taxes. Google does provide benefits, and in the US it contributes to retirement funds and to FICA which is future medicare and social security. It does that by law. If you don't think that Google is a huge contributor to the economy, I'll agree to disagree.

I'm a hard core capitalist. Everything I see around me was made by a corporation. Most of the good jobs I know of come from a corporation. The economy doesn't recover unless the corporations make money and hire, and the more the better IMHO.

Cheers.

[mccw]

I'm a capitalist; but perhaps prefer the "nation of shopkeepers" that England once was and that Thailand is largely now. Small Cash biz, harfly any regulation and largely zero or low tax entrepreneurs taking care of themselves and employing others, circling the money around building strong and sustainable communities, not looking to or reliant of government or entitlements.

Its the western structure of huge corporations that leaves it so exposed i think. Like the too big to fail banks. Just a couple of companies going under can throw the whole system in to disarray.

On google maybe your right about the employees and so forth, contributing to economy but that industry is somewhat the exception because it doesn't take away from existing biz since its a whole new area; but if you take amazon or Walmart, the other examples, then you can say quite easily that they suck the money away from other areas. I know its nature to compete- but if small biz has to pay tax then so should amazon at the same rate at least.

I would vote for your zero tax policy by the way; but take it a few steps further to say no tax on all earnings under 50grand, only 10% rate from 50 up to 200k and 20% above that flat + only a 10% VAT.

Cut welfare spending accordingly; put retirement age up to 85; forced work program's for the unemployed if no job after six months; military run civil work cor for the long term unemployed , food and lodging, only a small cash hand out, use them to build infrastructure and beautify the cities, parks etc etc.

[mccw]

The other kind of capitalist I like is the state run/ sponsored capitalism of the days of empire, east India company or like Singapore or Chinese are running, or zee Germans or Russians with thier energy companies. Strong powerful companies run for the health and strategic interests of the nation state. The American and British banks and corporations can be seen to actively undermine their host nations, profiting against the interests of the nation that they feed off. Monsanto and GM everything, the food retailers putting domestic farm sustainability at risk, the manipulation of interest rates at the bank not to mention all thier other crimes like drug money laundry, terrorist financing, Oil/ energy firms manipulating the markets and ripping off the consumers and the state. The lists could go on and on.

I see USA , UK and EU as rather risky places especially because our governments have been completely overrun by the corporate power which has no national loyalty or love. No interest other than to suck as much money out as possible.

[mccw]

Only a flat rate local property tax to pay for local services like trash collection, fire service, police and such. But a low one; about half what it is today. Could do with out the leviathan of waste that is the council. Just let an accountant split up the money as needed.

[NeverSure]

I'm a capitalist; but perhaps prefer the "nation of shopkeepers" that England once was and that Thailand is largely now. Small Cash biz, harfly any regulation and largely zero or low tax entrepreneurs taking care of themselves and employing others, circling the money around building strong and sustainable communities, not looking to or reliant of government or entitlements.

Its the western structure of huge corporations that leaves it so exposed i think. Like the too big to fail banks. Just a couple of companies going under can throw the whole system in to disarray.

On google maybe your right about the employees and so forth, contributing to economy but that industry is somewhat the exception because it doesn't take away from existing biz since its a whole new area; but if you take amazon or Walmart, the other examples, then you can say quite easily that they suck the money away from other areas. I know its nature to compete- but if small biz has to pay tax then so should amazon at the same rate at least.

I would vote for your zero tax policy by the way; but take it a few steps further to say no tax on all earnings under 50grand, only 10% rate from 50 up to 200k and 20% above that flat + only a 10% VAT.

Cut welfare spending accordingly; put retirement age up to 85; forced work program's for the unemployed if no job after six months; military run civil work cor for the long term unemployed , food and lodging, only a small cash hand out, use them to build infrastructure and beautify the cities, parks etc etc.

Nice post. I think we would disagree that Thailand's model is best. I think that's what made it and keeps it a 3rd world country, manufacturing for other people what other people invented and developed.

I would also disagree that it's bad for Walmart to shut down the competition. Competition, winners and losers is what ultimately gives people the best deal. I get things at Walmart and from Amazon sometimes at about 1/2 the price the local mom and pop used to charge.

But, this is fun. Keep it up.

[NeverSure]

The other kind of capitalist I like is the state run/ sponsored capitalism of the days of empire, east India company or like Singapore or Chinese are running, or zee Germans or Russians with thier energy companies. Strong powerful companies run for the health and strategic interests of the nation state. The American and British banks and corporations can be seen to actively undermine their host nations, profiting against the interests of the nation that they feed off. Monsanto and GM everything, the food retailers putting domestic farm sustainability at risk, the manipulation of interest rates at the bank not to mention all thier other crimes like drug money laundry, terrorist financing, Oil/ energy firms manipulating the markets and ripping off the consumers and the state. The lists could go on and on.

I see USA , UK and EU as rather risky places especially because our governments have been completely overrun by the corporate power which has no national loyalty or love. No interest other than to suck as much money out as possible.

Geez. How did we grow to hate corporations? Capitalism and the pooling of money into big money is what brought us the railroads and the Airlines and television and even the internet. And it's all relatively cheap due to volume.

I think the consumer is way ahead from the products of big corporations - things that we never would have.

Where would I get my 4x4 pickup or the gas to put into it?

I don't know about Europe. I don't live there. But watch the US have another boom. There's just too much happening.

Edited May 26, 2013 by NeverSure

[NeverSure]

The other kind of capitalist I like is the state run/ sponsored capitalism of the days of empire, east India company or like Singapore or Chinese are running, or zee Germans or Russians with thier energy companies. Strong powerful companies run for the health and strategic interests of the nation state. The American and British banks and corporations can be seen to actively undermine their host nations, profiting against the interests of the nation that they feed off. Monsanto and GM everything, the food retailers putting domestic farm sustainability at risk, the manipulation of interest rates at the bank not to mention all thier other crimes like drug money laundry, terrorist financing, Oil/ energy firms manipulating the markets and ripping off the consumers and the state. The lists could go on and on.

I see USA , UK and EU as rather risky places especially because our governments have been completely overrun by the corporate power which has no national loyalty or love. No interest other than to suck as much money out as possible.

Again, I don't like the banks. I don't pay interest just so I can pay for something twice and enrich bankers.

But manufacturers and internet companies provide value. Where would we get gas for out car if big money wasn't pooled to get it, refine it and ship it? Where would the equipment come from to build a gas station? I don't get that part.

Mass production makes things cheap, and makes more available. I look around me and I see things that didn't exist in my house 20 years ago including the cell phone and computer and internet and microwave and on and on. This is all new money and new jobs, but it takes the pooling of money to make and deliver it at a cost I will pay. That's corporations and capitalism driven by profit incentive.

Again, if I think an oil company holds all of the cards, I'll buy stock. I too can be part of their great dealings. It isn't limited to rich people.

Cheers.

[mccw]

The other kind of capitalist I like is the state run/ sponsored capitalism of the days of empire, east India company or like Singapore or Chinese are running, or zee Germans or Russians with thier energy companies. Strong powerful companies run for the health and strategic interests of the nation state. The American and British banks and corporations can be seen to actively undermine their host nations, profiting against the interests of the nation that they feed off. Monsanto and GM everything, the food retailers putting domestic farm sustainability at risk, the manipulation of interest rates at the bank not to mention all thier other crimes like drug money laundry, terrorist financing, Oil/ energy firms manipulating the markets and ripping off the consumers and the state. The lists could go on and on.

I see USA , UK and EU as rather risky places especially because our governments have been completely overrun by the corporate power which has no national loyalty or love. No interest other than to suck as much money out as possible.

Geez. How did we grow to hate corporations? Capitalism and the pooling of money into big money is what brought us the railroads and the Airlines and television and even the internet. And it's all relatively cheap due to volume.

I think the consumer is way ahead from the products of big corporations - things that we never would have.

Where would I get my 4x4 pickup or the gas to put into it?

I don't know about Europe. I don't live there. But watch the US have another boom. There's just too much happening.

Yes. Corporations can be good when under control but i can see a handful that have corrupted the government to the detriment of our nations. The government should be calling the shots not the other way around. Its also useful to have a monarch keeping an eye on things who's interested in the continuation of good reading history ands above the short termist profit seeking of the capitalists. As an American I suppose you can't see that but its kind of like the same principle of your constitution (which by the looks of it today is not worth the paper its written on- not trying to be offensive , just an observation). Health of the nation over health of private elite mans bank balance. Is there such a thing as National Social Capitalist?

[NeverSure]

The other kind of capitalist I like is the state run/ sponsored capitalism of the days of empire, east India company or like Singapore or Chinese are running, or zee Germans or Russians with thier energy companies. Strong powerful companies run for the health and strategic interests of the nation state. The American and British banks and corporations can be seen to actively undermine their host nations, profiting against the interests of the nation that they feed off. Monsanto and GM everything, the food retailers putting domestic farm sustainability at risk, the manipulation of interest rates at the bank not to mention all thier other crimes like drug money laundry, terrorist financing, Oil/ energy firms manipulating the markets and ripping off the consumers and the state. The lists could go on and on.

I see USA , UK and EU as rather risky places especially because our governments have been completely overrun by the corporate power which has no national loyalty or love. No interest other than to suck as much money out as possible.

Geez. How did we grow to hate corporations? Capitalism and the pooling of money into big money is what brought us the railroads and the Airlines and television and even the internet. And it's all relatively cheap due to volume.

I think the consumer is way ahead from the products of big corporations - things that we never would have.

Where would I get my 4x4 pickup or the gas to put into it?

I don't know about Europe. I don't live there. But watch the US have another boom. There's just too much happening.

Yes. Corporations can be good when under control but i can see a handful that have corrupted the government to the detriment of our nations. The government should be calling the shots not the other way around. Its also useful to have a monarch keeping an eye on things who's interested in the continuation of good reading history ands above the short termist profit seeking of the capitalists. As an American I suppose you can't see that but its kind of like the same principle of your constitution (which by the looks of it today is not worth the paper its written on- not trying to be offensive , just an observation). Health of the nation over health of private elite mans bank balance. Is there such a thing as National Social Capitalist?

I don't know. All I see government do is spin wheels and waste money. Western countries seem to acquiesced to the idea of big government with perpetual deficits.

I can't economically defend any government which puts its people so far in debt, including the US. I don't see the Eurozone doing any better. How the heck do we get these governments which oppress us, our children and grandchildren with so much debt?

At least private business usually knows how to cut costs and make a profit.

I agree that lobbyists with big money should be outlawed. But again, the government sets it up that way, so it's a two way street. It's impossible for me to put the blame only on corporations and think the government is lilly white. It simply needs to be stopped, but I wouldn't shut the benefits of the corporation down after I saw them lose their lobbyists any more than I'd shut the government down.

There is just too much good that has come to the consumer in the way of goods and services at affordable prices to totally trash corporations or the profit motive.

If someone thinks the government should run things, look at Thailand's rice scheme which was put in place for political purposes. Surely the government can't make money on rice or deliver it in good condition at an affordable price. Only the Thai farmer could do that if left alone to do it.

[manarak]

Geez. How did we grow to hate corporations? Capitalism and the pooling of money into big money is what brought us the railroads and the Airlines and television and even the internet. And it's all relatively cheap due to volume.

I'm a capitalist liberal, but I too see dangers in how *some* corporations have developed. I will maybe post more details about this later when I will have more time, but in short I am against too much corporate employment and against consumerism... so I'm against Fordism.

Regarding the big corporations, I dislike very much their ownership structures (mostly without leading actionnaires) and how they are led (mostly by employed CEOs with the wrong incentives).